Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 29, 2025, 09:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces making substantial progress in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is confirmed under complete Russian control. The situation in Pokrovsk remains highly precarious, with Russian forces within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and advancing, having severed one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearly collapsed. Russian forces are advancing near Dachne, Kotlyne, and Uspenivka.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating their control over several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.

Drone warfare continues to intensify, with multiple drone attacks reported across various regions. Ukrainian forces launched a significant drone attack overnight, targeting multiple regions in Russia, including a confirmed strike on the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery, causing a massive fire. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 57 drones and one "Iskander-M" missile were launched overnight, with 29 drones shot down and 14 "dummy" drones lost without causing damage. The attacks caused damage in Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Sumy regions.

The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with uncertainties surrounding US aid to Ukraine. The US Senate confirmed Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary, and President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. There are also reports that the US is stopping most of its foreign aid, including military aid.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and advancing, having severed one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka, Udachne, and expanding their control zone. Ukrainian defenses are under immense pressure, with reports of heavy losses and difficulties in holding positions.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area. Fighting continues in the Severnyi district. Russian forces report ongoing assault actions and tactical successes.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. The Ukrainian ISW reports that Ukrainian forces have retaken some positions near Toretsk. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city, south of the "Fomikha" mine, for the "Toretska" mine, and the village of Krymske.
Other Locations:
- Vuhledar: Russian sappers have discovered mines made with 3D printers, which are difficult to detect with metal detectors.
- Rozdolne: Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian troops with drones. The 23rd Mechanized Brigade is reportedly active in the area.
- Kramatorsk: The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities and 102 Russian attacks in the past week.
- Zverevo: Fighting continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces.
- Solone: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
- Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces are conducting active assault operations.
- Dachne: Video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are advancing near Dachne. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division is reportedly active in combat operations in Dachne.
- Kotlyne: Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne. Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding the western part of Kotlyne (Dmytrivka).
- Andriivka: Russian forces are clearing the settlement after a breakthrough.
- Nadezhdenka: Reports indicate no enemy presence, but some roaming groups are still active.
- Seversk: Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot near Seversk.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports 105 Russian attacks on the Lyman axis in the past week.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and reporting the capture of several settlements.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared, with the enemy making careless and unsuccessful counterattacks.
In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south. Fighting is reported near Kurylivka. Russian aviation struck with FAB-3000 in the north-eastern part of Sudzha and the northern outskirts of Honcharivka.
Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
Refugees from the region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the region for 100 days. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
The acting governor of the region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2.
Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying Russian equipment with drones.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya.
New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
The Russian MoD officially confirms the liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
The Russian MoD reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 190 troops, 2 tanks, and 10 armored vehicles on the Kursk axis in the past 24 hours.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, since the beginning of the conflict in the region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost over 55,000 troops, 319 tanks, 238 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armored personnel carriers, 1,626 armored fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 US-made MLRS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 103 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, 4 air defense radars, 32 engineering vehicles (including 13 obstacle-clearing vehicles, 1 UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, 9 armored recovery vehicles, and 1 command post vehicle).
Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
Video evidence shows soldiers of the 154th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade destroying enemy equipment in the Kursk region, including a "Bukhar" truck, a Chinese golf cart, three "Tigr" (or VPK "Ural") vehicles, a previously damaged tank, and a BTR.
A video from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows Russian forces destroying three Ukrainian MRAPs (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles) near the border in the area of Tetkino.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue in the region, with new reports of a large fire in Kharkiv caused by a Russian "Shahed" drone attack, injuring at least two people. The fire engulfed a wood processing facility and damaged a gas pipeline. A fire broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack, causing power and water supply issues.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. They have occupied the forest near Zapadne and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have taken the initiative. Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.

Other Regions

Drone Activity:
- New alerts for Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, and Vasylkiv areas.
- Confirmed drone movements near Mykolaiv, with one drone approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction and another circling near Nova Odesa.
- Updated data confirms drone movements in Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, and Chernihiv.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 15 drones did not reach their targets and were "lost on location."
- Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
- Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels, and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
- Seven Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Belgorod region and Crimea in the past two hours, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
- Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
- Kyiv: Enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city. Kyiv air defenses are engaging the drones. Debris from a downed drone fell in the Desnianskyi district, causing a grass and bush fire on open ground. A fire was reported in the center of Kyiv at the Tsarsky sports complex.
- Mozyr (Belarus): A Shahed drone was reportedly shot down in the Mozyr region.
- Bryansk (Russia): Two Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Bryansk region.
- Tver (Russia): A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones.
Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted.
Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv.
Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight.
Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged in Sumy and the surrounding region.
Ryazan: There are reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan.
Donetsk: Air defense systems are active, with reports of at least ten explosions.
Mykolaiv: A powerful explosion was reported in Mykolaiv. Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night.
Odesa: An attack on the port infrastructure of Odesa was reported. Images of the aftermath were published by the Izmail Regional State Administration.
Belgorod: A private house in the village of Razumnoye was attacked by a drone, resulting in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child. The father and another child were injured.

Military Equipment

FPV Drones: Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced the start of domestic production of codified FPV drones.
UAVs: Ukrainian forces are using long-range attack UAVs. Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week, including 2 guided missiles, 375 "Shahed" drones, 71 reconnaissance drones, and 59 other types of drones.
"Kalibr" Missiles: Russia has deployed "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.
"Shahed" Drones: Russia launched another attack on Ukraine using "Shahed" drones.
X-59/69 Missiles: Russia attacked Ukraine with two X-59/69 missiles overnight.
Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeast axis and the use of guided aerial bombs on the Sumy region.
"Орешник" system: Lukashenko stated that the "Орешник" system will be deployed in Belarus closer to Smolensk.
France's Commitment to Deliver Mirage 2000-5 Fighter Jets: France's commitment to deliver Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of the first quarter of 2025 represents a significant boost to Ukraine's air capabilities. The jets will reportedly be used primarily as carriers for Storm Shadow missiles and to bolster air defense.
Clarity AI Platform for UAVs: The mention of a new Ukrainian AI platform for UAVs, Clarity, capable of detecting even camouflaged military equipment, highlights the increasing role of advanced technology in the conflict.

Geopolitical Developments

The US Senate confirmed Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary.
US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports and stated his intention to reopen oil production in protected areas of Alaska.
Trump also stated that DeepSeek's success should serve as a signal to US companies, emphasizing the need for Washington to focus on competition.
Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine.
Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
A potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump, has surfaced in the media.
Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict.
Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine.
Colombia has agreed to accept migrants from the US. Tariffs and some sanctions have been lifted. The impasse in relations with the US has been resolved, according to the Colombian Foreign Ministry.
Lukashenko won the presidential election in Belarus with 87.6% of the vote, according to exit poll data. The turnout was more than 75%. It is noted that 5.1% of voters voted against all candidates. Thus, Lukashenko won his 7th victory.
Saudi Arabia has purchased over €2 billion worth of arms from Russia, including 39 "Pantsir-S1M" air defense systems, potentially enhancing Russia's air defense capabilities.
There are reports of an increase in Israeli arms shipments to Ukraine.
Negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict may begin in April-May, preceded by a meeting between Putin and Trump, according to Hürriyet. The first step will be a ceasefire agreement.
The Swedish Security Service has detained a vessel in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of damaging a cable. The vessel, named Vezhen, is registered in Malta and departed from the Russian port of Ust-Luga on January 24.
Spanish and American intelligence services detained a ship with a Russian crew off the coast of Portugal on suspicion of drug trafficking.
A fiber optic cable between Latvia and Sweden has been damaged. A vessel suspected of sabotage has been detained.
The Israeli ambassador to Russia stated that Israel will be represented at the May 9 parade in Moscow, despite criticism from Ukrainians.
The UK government is considering selling two amphibious assault ships to Brazil at a significantly reduced price.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
Preparation for direct negotiations between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump on a possible truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the only topic of discussion within the Politburo.
Part of the Russian leadership put forward a claim to the "Russian city of Narva" on the agenda of the negotiations.
Representatives of the Politburo were told that Trump intends to block all opportunities for Russia to bypass sanctions and "put an end to the gray fleet" that transports Russian oil products.
A telephone conversation between "Putin" and Trump could take place in the next three days.
The agreement on Ukraine was not reached because Zelensky wanted to fight.
Trump administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
China has reiterated its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine, as stated by the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the US, Liu Pengyu, in response to Trump's comments on expecting Beijing's assistance in resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
The EU has called the presidential elections in Belarus a "complete fake".
Saudi Arabia responded to Trump's proposal to collapse oil prices by stating that Riyadh is focused on "long-term stability of the oil market."
China responded to Trump's request for assistance in ending the war in Ukraine, stating that they are "ready to see all sides play a constructive role and create conditions for de-escalation and a political settlement of the crisis."
The heads of foreign affairs of 27 EU countries will discuss on January 27th the 16th package of sanctions against Russia and the use of its frozen assets, according to an EU representative.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Russia's demand for Ukraine to refuse to join NATO, stating that the architecture of European security is built on protection from Russia and that Russia has no say in this matter.
US Secretary of State Blinken removed the official statement on the non-recognition of the future presidential elections in Belarus.
NATO plans to share classified data on military production with the EU and defense industry representatives, according to Bloomberg.
Trump reportedly plans to hold a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, followed by discussions with Ukrainian authorities.
A potential meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin is proposed for February-early March 2025 to agree on the main parameters of a peace plan.
A ceasefire is proposed from April 20, 2025, with the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region.
An International Peace Conference is proposed for late April 2025 to formalize an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the US, China, select European countries, and "Global South" nations.
A prisoner exchange "all for all" is proposed for late April 2025.
A declaration on ending the war in Ukraine is proposed for May 9, 2025, with Ukraine not extending martial law or mobilization afterward.
Presidential elections in Ukraine are proposed for late August 2025, with parliamentary and local elections in late October 2025.
Ukraine would not join NATO and declare neutrality, with a NATO summit decision to prohibit Ukraine's entry.
Ukraine would join the EU by 2030, with the EU committing to post-war reconstruction.
Ukraine would not reduce its army size, and the US would continue supporting its modernization.
Ukraine would not recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories but would also refrain from military or diplomatic attempts to regain them.
Some sanctions against Russia would be lifted immediately after the agreement, others over three years based on compliance.
Restrictions on Russian energy imports to the EU would be removed, but subject to a special duty to fund Ukraine's reconstruction.
Parties supporting the Russian language and peaceful coexistence with Russia would be allowed in Ukrainian elections. Actions against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Russian language would cease.
The issue of a European peacekeeping contingent is highlighted as problematic, with Ukraine demanding it and Russia opposing it.
Europe is reportedly preparing for the "most extreme" military scenario due to concerns about a potential "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance, according to NBC News.
European governments fear that Russia may target them after Ukraine, especially if the US under a new administration does not provide support.
Lithuania plans to mine bridges leading to Russia and is prepared to destroy them if Russian tanks attempt to cross. They have also stockpiled "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles.
Plans are underway to build a large-scale anti-missile defense system in Europe, similar to Israel's "Iron Dome."
Norway has updated its emergency preparedness brochure for citizens, outlining how much water, food, and other supplies to stockpile in case of "military action."
Germany has allocated around 100 million euros to restore public sirens that were dismantled after the fall of the "Iron Curtain."
Swedish church authorities, at the direction of the armed forces, have begun searching for additional cemetery space in case the conflict reaches their shores.
Concerns are widespread that a new US president might not defend historic NATO allies if they are attacked by Russia.
Turkey intends to help the EU replace gas transit through Ukraine, according to the Turkish ambassador to the EU, Faruk Kaymakcı.
Reports indicate a potential shift in the political landscape of Belarus, with incumbent President Lukashenko claiming a landslide victory in the recent elections, securing 87.6% of the vote according to exit polls.
There is speculation about a potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump, which has been published in the media.
Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict, with concerns about a possible "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance and a reduction in US support under a new administration.
Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine, potentially utilizing the Southern Gas Corridor and connecting it to Mediterranean gas sources.
The Wall Street Journal reports that US officials are shocked by Trump's suspension of foreign aid, fearing it could allow China and other rivals to gain influence.
The EU is considering a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission, potentially involving troops from outside Europe, though skepticism exists regarding the feasibility of such a plan.
Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs has signaled that the EU may "rape" European principles of unanimity if there is no consensus on the continuation of anti-Russian sanctions.
NATO will reportedly share confidential military production data with the EU and defense industry representatives to foster "common thinking."
A new "100-day plan" by former US President Trump for a settlement in Ukraine has surfaced in the media, though its authenticity is unconfirmed.
Prime Minister of Serbia, Miloš Vučević, is resigning amidst student protests.
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is touring European capitals to rally support for the defense of Greenland, particularly in light of recent
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Slovak Prime Minister Fico's statements about "enemies".
The head of the Russian State Duma alleged that there is a threat of nuclear war following Tucker Carlson's interview about an assassination attempt on Putin.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' sharp response to Slovak Prime Minister Fico's statements about "enemies" further highlights the strained relations between Ukraine and some of its neighbors.
The internal political situation in Slovakia, with falling trust in Fico's government and protests against his pro-Russian course, adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics.
A video from the Kubinka area near Moscow showing a kangaroo in a snowy field has been identified as irrelevant to the context of military operations.
The analysis of the text about the alleged assassination attempts and threats against Putin, Trump, Orban, and Fico confirms the use of such narratives in Russian propaganda to portray Russia as a victim of Western aggression and to justify its actions in Ukraine.
The analysis of the map showing the "Kharkiv Direction" confirms the ongoing clashes near Vovchansk and Starytsia and the likely Russian attempts to advance in this area.
The analysis of the map showing the "Kursk Direction" confirms the intense fighting in this area and the likely Russian attempts to break through the Ukrainian defenses near several villages.
The analysis of the video showing the aftermath of an attack on an oil depot in the Nizhny Novgorod region confirms the strategic importance of such facilities and the potential impact of their destruction on both military and civilian operations.
The analysis of the video showing the aftermath of an attack on the Tsarsky sports complex in Kyiv confirms that the fire was relatively minor and that there were no casualties.
The analysis of the video promoting veteran entrepreneurship in Ukraine highlights the importance of supporting veterans' reintegration into civilian life and the role of small businesses in strengthening the economy during wartime.
The report about the temporary restrictions at the Murmansk airport due to security concerns is a minor development that does not significantly change the overall strategic situation.
The analysis of the images from the meeting of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the Khabarovsk region confirms the focus on internal security and regional administration, which is indirectly related to the broader context of the conflict.
The analysis of the images from the awards ceremony for law enforcement personnel further confirms the emphasis on maintaining order and recognizing service within Russia's internal security apparatus.
The analysis of the image showing a collection of rose hips is irrelevant to the context of military operations and can be disregarded.
The analysis of the image and text about the poll results in Kakhovka confirms the presence of anti-Russian sentiment in the occupied territories and the potential for resistance against the occupying forces.
The analysis of the chat messages confirms the presence of strong anti-Ukrainian sentiment among some segments of the Russian-speaking population and the potential for dehumanization and extreme violence.
The analysis of the video showing Russian soldiers allegedly being transported to an assault in handcuffs confirms the reports of low morale and discipline problems within some Russian units.
The report about the Ukrainian Air Force shooting down 29 out of 57 Russian drones and losing 14 dummy drones confirms the continued intensity of drone warfare and the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses.
The analysis of the image promoting the purchase of drones for the Russian army highlights the importance of civilian support and fundraising efforts in sustaining the war effort.
The analysis of the image depicting a saintly figure and a modern soldier confirms the use of religious and nationalist symbolism in propaganda efforts.
The report about the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' response to Fico's statements confirms the strained relations between Ukraine and Slovakia and the internal political challenges faced by Fico's government.
The analysis of the images showing the aftermath of the attack on the port infrastructure in the Odesa region confirms the targeting of civilian infrastructure and the potential impact on the local economy.
The analysis of the video showing a fire in the center of Kyiv confirms the continued threat to the Ukrainian capital and the potential for attacks on civilian targets.
Mikhail Drapatiy has been officially appointed as the new commander of the OSG "Khortytsia," replacing General-Major Andrii Hnatov. This leadership change could signal a shift in strategy or a response to the evolving situation on the eastern front.
The Russian FPV drone on fiber optics being captured by a Ukrainian FPV drone interceptor suggests ongoing testing and development of new drone tactics by both sides. This highlights the increasing importance of drone warfare and counter-drone measures in the conflict.
The statement from the "Военкор Котенок" Telegram channel regarding the situation near Velyka Novosilka provides further details on the ongoing fighting in the area. The mention of Russian units attacking northwest of Vremivka and southeast of Novoselka indicates continued Russian advances in this sector. The fighting near Novyi Komar, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the line along the Mokri Yaly River, suggests a critical point of contention. The reference to battles in the southern part of the "pocket" near Kurakhove and the assault on Dachne and surrounding areas indicates a complex and fluid situation on the ground.
The image and text about the commemoration of the Battle of Kruty highlight the importance of historical memory and national identity in the context of the ongoing conflict. The event serves as a reminder of past struggles for Ukrainian independence and may be used to bolster morale and reinforce the narrative of resistance against aggression.
The report about the EU considering disabling 15 banks from SWIFT as part of a 16th package of sanctions against Russia, along with a potential phased ban on Russian aluminum imports, indicates a further escalation of economic pressure on Russia. These measures, if implemented, could have significant implications for Russia's financial system and its ability to conduct international trade.
The reported request from the new Syrian authorities for Russia to provide compensation "to restore trust" marks a significant shift in the relationship between the two countries. The discussions about respecting Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as addressing the "mistakes of the past," suggest a potential reevaluation of Russia's role in Syria and its support for the previous regime.
The announcement by the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration about a Techathon for Ukrainian teenagers, "Teens in AI," demonstrates a commitment to fostering innovation and technological development among the younger generation. The involvement of the Ministry of Education and Science and the Ministry of Digital Transformation highlights the importance of education and technology in Ukraine's long-term strategy.
The analysis of the video showing an aerial view of a drone carrying a payload, likely a bomb, being targeted by an incoming missile or drone provides further evidence of the use of precision strikes against enemy assets. The video highlights the vulnerability of drones to counter-drone measures and the increasing sophistication of drone warfare tactics.
The video from the "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" Telegram channel, which reportedly shows Ukrainian forces executing civilians in Selidovo before the city's liberation by Russian forces, is a serious allegation that requires further investigation. The claims of "corpses upon corpses" and the comparison to the actions of Nazi Germany are highly inflammatory and could be used for propaganda purposes.
The report about the removal of the historical inscription "Freedom" from a photo in a calendar featuring the Stolby Nature Reserve in Krasnoyarsk, Russia, is a symbolic development that reflects the current political climate in Russia. The explanation given by officials, citing technical reasons, may be seen as a pretext for censorship. The historical significance of the inscription and its connection to the Stolbist movement add another layer of meaning to its removal.
The video from the "Два майора" Telegram channel, showing a Russian FPV drone on fiber optics being targeted by a Ukrainian FPV drone interceptor, provides further evidence of the ongoing development and deployment of new drone technologies and counter-drone tactics. The mention of radars and observation posts being used to detect drones, followed by the deployment of interceptor drones, highlights the increasing sophistication of drone warfare.
The confirmation by the Ukrainian General Staff that the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery was targeted further highlights Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory.
The reported temporary restrictions at the Murmansk airport due to security concerns also indicate a heightened state of alert within Russia.
The update from the Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) regarding the fire in the Desnianskyi district confirms that there were no casualties and that the fire has been localized. This information helps to clarify the situation and alleviate concerns about potential harm to civilians.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making significant advances in the Donetsk region. The fall of Velyka Novosilka is confirmed, and the situation in Pokrovsk is increasingly precarious, with Russian forces nearing the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse, although there are reports of Ukrainian forces retaking some positions in the area. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains stalled. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with widespread attacks across multiple regions. New reports of drone activity near Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, Chernihiv, and Kyiv indicate an intensification of the conflict. The updated information on drone movements confirms the continued and widespread threat across multiple regions of Ukraine. The new reports of a large fire in Kharkiv following a drone attack and an explosion in Chernihiv further highlight the escalating drone warfare. The reports of Russian air forces targeting Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region and the shooting down of two Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region indicate continued hostilities on the Kursk front. The new report of a drone attack on a residential building in the Belgorod region, resulting in the deaths of a woman and a two-year-old child, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This incident, along with the reported drone attack on a fuel transfer station in the Tver region, underscores the increasing vulnerability of Russian territory to Ukrainian attacks. The confirmation by the Ukrainian General Staff that the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery was targeted further highlights Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory. The reported temporary restrictions at the Murmansk airport due to security concerns also indicate a heightened state of alert within Russia. The appointment of Mikhail Drapatiy as the new commander of the OSG "Khortytsia" may signal a shift in strategy or a response

Situation Report