Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 29, 2025, 07:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with Russian forces continuing their offensive operations across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region remains the primary area of conflict, with significant fighting reported around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. Russian forces have secured a major strategic and symbolic victory with the complete capture of Velyka Novosilka, opening avenues for further advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are reportedly near collapse. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing them extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian assets with drones, including oil refineries and military facilities deep inside Russia. There are reports of a new attack on an oil refinery near Ryazan. A massive drone attack targeted central Russia and the south overnight, with over 100 drones reportedly involved. While most were intercepted, some hit their targets, including an oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod. Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region and using drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels, and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 15 drones did not reach their targets and were "lost on location."

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces are regaining territory, including the confirmed liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino. Russian forces, reportedly supported by North Korean soldiers, are making advances in the area. Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering. Western officials cited by the BBC report that about 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the region, while South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed. A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled.

In the Kharkiv region, drone attacks continue, with one drone reportedly approaching Balakliia and another from the south. Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts, with a fire breaking out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community. A fire also broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack, causing power and water supply issues in some areas. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna and occupied the forest near Zapadne. Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions.

The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with uncertainties surrounding US aid to Ukraine, including a confirmed 90-day suspension. The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years. European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine. Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons. Trump also signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government. Trump has expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war and reportedly plans to hold a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, followed by discussions with Ukrainian authorities. There is speculation about a potential meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin in February-early March 2025 to agree on the main parameters of a peace plan. Europe is reportedly preparing for the "most extreme" military scenario due to concerns about a potential "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance.

Key Developments by Region

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Fully encircled and captured by Russian forces.
  • Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. Video evidence shows the Russian 40th Separate Guards Brigade of the Naval Infantry operating within the settlement and raising their flag.
  • Russian forces are clearing basements and buildings.
  • Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian troops.
  • Ukrainian command acknowledges the risk of an operational encirclement.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using mortars, "Baba Yaga" drones, and tanks to destroy Russian forces and equipment.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer.

• Pokrovsk:

  • Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
  • Positional fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line.
  • Powerful strikes are reported.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly struggling to defend the city.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces engaging Ukrainian positions, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank.
  • A captured soldier from the 153rd Brigade trained by the US 1st Cavalry Division in Germany was taken prisoner.
  • Russian snipers are reportedly disrupting Ukrainian troop rotations.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian sniper operation disrupting a Ukrainian troop rotation.
  • Russian forces are blocking the ability of Ukrainian forces to supply near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reports 488 Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk axis in the past week.
  • One woman was killed due to a Russian attack, and another civilian was killed by a drone attack, according to the regional prosecutor's office.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district.
  • Fighting continues in the Severnyi district.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts from the north side of the railway and have launched an offensive south of the railway station.
  • The press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade reports that the situation is difficult, with Russian forces deploying units of "Akhmat" and former "Wagner" fighters.
  • Russian paratroopers are using BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers to target Ukrainian positions on the western outskirts.
  • UAV units of the 98th Airborne Division are using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian firing points.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators targeting Russian positions, causing buildings to collapse.

• Kurakhove:

  • Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
  • Russian forces are conducting assault operations.
  • Video evidence of the last battle of a Russian tank crew from the 5th Brigade of the 51st Army on October 29, 2024.
  • Fighting is reported near Dachnoe.
  • A Russian infantry attack was repelled.
  • Russian forces have extended their control zone by 400 meters along the Kurakhove-Dachnoe road.
  • Russian forces are advancing near Petropavlivka, Dachnoe and Sukhykh Yal.
  • Video evidence shows the 68th "Iron" Tank Regiment conducting artillery and drone strikes on Ukrainian positions and equipment in Dachne, supporting an assault.

• Toretsk:

  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control.
  • Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city, south of the "Fomikha" mine, for the "Toretska" mine, and the village of Krymske.
  • Video evidence confirms Russian advances.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 Russian attacks in the area and an increase in Russian assault activities.
  • A video from "Butusov Plus" shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian soldier.
  • Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine.
  • In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.
  • In the Krymske area, Russian forces advanced 400 meters, reaching new positions on the northern outskirts of the settlement.
  • Ukrainian forces have conducted a building assault and captured Russian soldiers.

• Other Locations:

  • Belohorivka: Video evidence shows Russian forces storming Ukrainian positions, clearing trenches and destroying enemy forces.
  • Vuhledar: Russian sappers have discovered mines made with 3D printers, which are difficult to detect with metal detectors.
  • Rozdolne: Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian troops with drones. The 23rd Mechanized Brigade is reportedly active in the area.
  • Kramatorsk: The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities and 102 Russian attacks in the past week.
  • Zverevo: Fighting continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian defenses are built around mine waste heaps. Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs against these positions and drone control points. Fighting is ongoing in the landings near the city dump to the northwest.
  • Solone: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
  • Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces are conducting active assault operations in the area.
  • Dachne: Video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.
• They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reports 105 Russian attacks on the Lyman axis in the past week.
• North of Kupiansk on the right bank of the Oskil River, units of the "West" group have liberated the settlement of Zakhidne.
• Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements and are consolidating their control, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
• In Tetkino, Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops, using FPV drones and artillery.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
• Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area.
• Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
• Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared, with the enemy making careless and unsuccessful counterattacks.
• In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
• Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south, fighting is going on near Kurylivka.
• Russian aviation struck with FAB-3000 in the north-eastern part of Sudzha and the northern outskirts of Honcharivka.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
• Refugees from the region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the region for 100 days. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• The acting governor of the region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
• Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2.
• Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
• In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
• Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south.
• Western officials cited by the BBC report that about 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the region.
• South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed in the region.
• A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled.
• Reports of an American mercenary known as "Doctor Death" being captured by Russian forces.
• According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, Russian forces in the Kursk direction have neutralized over 180 Ukrainian troops, a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, four armored fighting vehicles, ten motor vehicles, a self-propelled artillery unit, two towed howitzers, a mortar, three electronic warfare stations, two UAV control points, and an ammunition depot.
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops near Tetkino. FPV drones and artillery were used to neutralize the Ukrainian forces.
• Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade are reportedly using drones to destroy Russian equipment.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying Russian equipment with drones.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya. The video shows the body of a North Korean lieutenant colonel, along with his weapons and equipment.
• New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
• The Russian MoD officially confirms the liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
• The Russian MoD reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 190 troops, 2 tanks, and 10 armored vehicles on the Kursk axis in the past 24 hours.
• According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, Russian forces in the Kursk direction have neutralized over 180 Ukrainian troops, a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, four armored fighting vehicles, ten motor vehicles, a self-propelled artillery unit, two towed howitzers, a mortar, three electronic warfare stations, two UAV control points, and an ammunition depot. In total, since the beginning of the conflict in the region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost over 55,000 troops, 319 tanks, 238 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armored personnel carriers, 1,626 armored fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 US-made MLRS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 103 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, 4 air defense radars, 32 engineering vehicles (including 13 obstacle-clearing vehicles, 1 UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, 9 armored recovery vehicles, and 1 command post vehicle).

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:

  • One drone is approaching Balakliya.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast and from another approaching from the south.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
  • A third strike on Kharkiv was reported by the mayor, targeting the Kyivskyi district.
  • Ukrainian authorities confirm another strike in the Kyivskyi district, with no reported casualties.
  • A fire broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack. Power and water supply issues are reported in some areas of the city.
  • Three people were injured in the attacks on Kharkiv.
  • A Russian "Lancet" drone destroyed a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer "Gvozdika".

• Russian Advance:

  • Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
  • They have occupied the forest near Zapadne and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
  • On the right bank of the Oskol, Russian forces are continuing to push through Ukrainian defenses, expanding their control zone towards the western part of Dvurichna in the direction of Sahunivka.
  • Fighting continues in the area of Zelenyi Hai, with Ukrainian forces attempting to improve their tactical position by attacking from Borova Andriivka.

• Explosions:

  • Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.
  • A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.

• Kupiansk:

  • Is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions.
  • Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have taken the initiative.
  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces are reportedly suffering heavy losses.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:
  • New alerts for Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, and Vasylkiv areas, as well as confirmed drone movements and attacks.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 15 drones did not reach their targets and were "lost on location."
  • Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
  • Seven Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Belgorod region and Crimea in the past two hours, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • 5 drones are flying over the Berislav district towards Bereznehovate.
  • 1 drone flew over Pokrov in a northerly direction.
  • 2 drones are flying over Pavlograd in a northerly direction.
  • 6 drones are in the Kremenchug region, heading northwest.
  • 2 drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • 1 drone is moving from the Kharkiv region to the Dnipropetrovsk region, and 1 to the Poltava region.
  • 3 drones are moving from the Sumy region to the Poltava region.
  • Groups of drones are moving along the border of the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the east of the Mykolaiv region, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the north of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Kharkiv region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the south and center of the Poltava region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Poltava region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the north of the Sumy region, heading south.
  • Drones are in the east of the Cherkasy region, heading north.
  • Drones are on the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading north.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the Nikopol area, heading towards Kryvyi Rih.
  • Several groups of attack UAVs are moving through the Sumy region towards the Chernihiv region.
  • Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
  • Mykolaiv: Mykolaiv city is under threat from enemy UAVs. One drone is approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction.
  • Vinnytsia: The Vinnytsia oblast is under threat from enemy UAVs approaching from Cherkasy and Kyiv oblasts. Two drones are reported to be moving from Cherkasy to Vinnytsia oblast.
  • Zhytomyr: Two drones are reported to be heading towards or through Zhytomyr. They have reportedly changed course towards Fastiv/Irpin.
  • Kropyvnytskyi: Three drones are reported to be heading towards or through Kropyvnytskyi.
  • Vasylkiv: Two drones are reported to be heading towards or through Vasylkiv. They are now reportedly flying towards Kyiv from Vasylkiv.
  • Cherkasy: Four drones are reported to be north of Cherkasy, heading west. Two drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • Pryluky: Two drones are reported to be south of Pryluky, heading west.
  • Chernihiv: Two drones are reported to be in the east of Chernihiv Oblast, heading west.
  • Nikopol: One drone is reported to be north of Nikopol.
  • Kyiv: Enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city. Kyiv air defenses are engaging the drones. Debris from a downed drone fell in the Desnianskyi district, causing a grass and bush fire on open ground.
  • Kirovohrad: One drone is circling north of Kropyvnytskyi.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: One drone is near Kryvyi Rih.
  • Poltava: One drone is north of Poltava.
  • Sumy: One drone is circling near Sumy.
  • Mozyr (Belarus): A Shahed drone was reportedly shot down in the Mozyr region.
  • Bila Tserkva: Two drones are heading towards or through Bila Tserkva.
  • Uman: Two drones are east of Uman.
  • Smila: One drone is west of Smila.
• Sevastopol:
  • Colonelcassad reports an air raid alert in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted.
  • "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shares an image showing messages from "Чп / Севастополь" warning of ballistic missile launches from the Mykolaiv region towards western and northwestern Crimea, specifically Tarkhankut.
  • STERNENKO Telegram channel reports on missile danger in occupied Crimea.
• Dnipropetrovsk:
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week, including 2 guided missiles, 375 "Shahed" drones, 71 reconnaissance drones, and 59 other types of drones.
  • Russian forces attacked Nikopolshchyna more than 10 times during the day, using FPV drones and heavy artillery. A private house and two buses were damaged. A transport company was also damaged.
• Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv.
• Ryazan: There are reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan.
• Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot near Seversk.
• Mykolaiv: A powerful explosion was reported in Mykolaiv. Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night. The building of the enterprise was partially destroyed.

Military Equipment

• "Орешник" system:
  • Lukashenko stated that the "Орешник" system will be deployed in Belarus closer to Smolensk.
  • Lukashenko stated that the next "Орешник" installation will be delivered to Belarus even earlier than to Russia.
  • Belarusian President Lukashenko announced that the hypersonic missile complex "Орешник" will be deployed in Belarus "any day now," even before it is delivered to Russia.
• FPV drones:
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
  • Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
  • Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
• UAVs:
  • Ukrainian forces from the 141st Mechanized Brigade are targeting enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones.
  • Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack in the Kyiv region, with two multi-story buildings and six cars damaged. A fire also broke out at an enterprise, covering an area of 600 square meters.
  • Ukrainian forces are using long-range attack UAVs An-196 "Lyutyy," reportedly with a range of 2000 km.
• Video evidence confirms that a Russian Krasukha electronic warfare system was destroyed in Vasylivka, Kherson region.
• France's commitment to deliver Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of the first quarter of 2025 represents a significant boost to Ukraine's air capabilities. The jets will reportedly be used primarily as carriers for Storm Shadow missiles and to bolster air defense.
• The mention of a new Ukrainian AI platform for UAVs, Clarity, capable of detecting even camouflaged military equipment, highlights the increasing role of advanced technology in the conflict.

Geopolitical Developments

• Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
• The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
• European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine, with Zelensky requesting a direct US presence.
• Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
• Bloomberg reports that European allies agree that the US should provide troops for any future peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
• Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
• The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
• Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
• Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
• Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
• Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
• Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
• Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
• Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
• Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
• The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
• French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
• Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
• Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
• Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
• The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
• Preparation for direct negotiations between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump on a possible truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the only topic of discussion within the Politburo.
• Part of the Russian leadership put forward a claim to the "Russian city of Narva" on the agenda of the negotiations.
• Representatives of the Politburo were told that Trump intends to block all opportunities for Russia to bypass sanctions and "put an end to the gray fleet" that transports Russian oil products.
• A telephone conversation between "Putin" and Trump could take place in the next three days.
• The agreement on Ukraine was not reached because Zelensky wanted to fight.
• Trump administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
• China has reiterated its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine, as stated by the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the US, Liu Pengyu, in response to Trump's comments on expecting Beijing's assistance in resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
• The EU has called the presidential elections in Belarus a "complete fake".
• Saudi Arabia responded to Trump's proposal to collapse oil prices by stating that Riyadh is focused on "long-term stability of the oil market."
• China responded to Trump's request for assistance in ending the war in Ukraine, stating that they are "ready to see all sides play a constructive role and create conditions for de-escalation and a political settlement of the crisis."
• The heads of foreign affairs of 27 EU countries will discuss on January 27th the 16th package of sanctions against Russia and the use of its frozen assets, according to an EU representative.
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Russia's demand for Ukraine to refuse to join NATO, stating that the architecture of European security is built on protection from Russia and that Russia has no say in this matter.
• US Secretary of State Blinken removed the official statement on the non-recognition of the future presidential elections in Belarus.
• NATO plans to share classified data on military production with the EU and defense industry representatives, according to Bloomberg.
• Trump reportedly plans to hold a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, followed by discussions with Ukrainian authorities.
• A potential meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin is proposed for February-early March 2025 to agree on the main parameters of a peace plan.
• A ceasefire is proposed from April 20, 2025, with the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region.
• An International Peace Conference is proposed for late April 2025 to formalize an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the US, China, select European countries, and "Global South" nations.
• A prisoner exchange "all for all" is proposed for late April 2025.
• A declaration on ending the war in Ukraine is proposed for May 9, 2025, with Ukraine not extending martial law or mobilization afterward.
• Presidential elections in Ukraine are proposed for late August 2025, with parliamentary and local elections in late October 2025.
• Ukraine would not join NATO and declare neutrality, with a NATO summit decision to prohibit Ukraine's entry.
• Ukraine would join the EU by 2030, with the EU committing to post-war reconstruction.
• Ukraine would not reduce its army size, and the US would continue supporting its modernization.
• Ukraine would not recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories but would also refrain from military or diplomatic attempts to regain them.
• Some sanctions against Russia would be lifted immediately after the agreement, others over three years based on compliance.
• Restrictions on Russian energy imports to the EU would be removed, but subject to a special duty to fund Ukraine's reconstruction.
• Parties supporting the Russian language and peaceful coexistence with Russia would be allowed in Ukrainian elections. Actions against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Russian language would cease.
• The issue of a European peacekeeping contingent is highlighted as problematic, with Ukraine demanding it and Russia opposing it.
• Europe is reportedly preparing for the "most extreme" military scenario due to concerns about a potential "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance, according to NBC News.
• European governments fear that Russia may target them after Ukraine, especially if the US under a new administration does not provide support.
• Lithuania plans to mine bridges leading to Russia and is prepared to destroy them if Russian tanks attempt to cross. They have also stockpiled "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles.
• Plans are underway to build a large-scale anti-missile defense system in Europe, similar to Israel's "Iron Dome."
• Norway has updated its emergency preparedness brochure for citizens, outlining how much water, food, and other supplies to stockpile in case of "military action."
• Germany has allocated around 100 million euros to restore public sirens that were dismantled after the fall of the "Iron Curtain."
• Swedish church authorities, at the direction of the armed forces, have begun searching for additional cemetery space in case the conflict reaches their shores.
• Concerns are widespread that a new US president might not defend historic NATO allies if they are attacked by Russia.
• Turkey intends to help the EU replace gas transit through Ukraine, according to the Turkish ambassador to the EU, Faruk Kaymakcı.
• Reports indicate a potential shift in the political landscape of Belarus, with incumbent President Lukashenko claiming a landslide victory in the recent elections, securing 87.6% of the vote according to exit polls.
• There is speculation about a potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump, which has been published in the media.
• Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict, with concerns about a possible "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance and a reduction in US support under a new administration.
• Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine, potentially utilizing the Southern Gas Corridor and connecting it to Mediterranean gas sources.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that US officials are shocked by Trump's suspension of foreign aid, fearing it could allow China and other rivals to gain influence.
• The EU is considering a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission, potentially involving troops from outside Europe, though skepticism exists regarding the feasibility of such a plan.
• Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs has signaled that the EU may "rape" European principles of unanimity if there is no consensus on the continuation of anti-Russian sanctions.
• NATO will reportedly share confidential military production data with the EU and defense industry representatives to foster "common thinking."
• A new "100-day plan" by former US President Trump for a settlement in Ukraine has surfaced in the media, though its authenticity is unconfirmed.
• Prime Minister of Serbia, Miloš Vučević, is resigning amidst student protests.
• Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is touring European capitals to rally support for the defense of Greenland, particularly in