Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

January 28, 2025, 23:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, with the fall of Velyka Novosilka confirmed and the situation in Pokrovsk becoming increasingly precarious. Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains stalled. Drone warfare is intensifying, with widespread attacks across multiple regions, including new reports of attacks on civilian infrastructure and a nuclear energy facility in the Smolensk region of Russia, and drone activity in the Nizhny Novgorod and Tver regions. The Ukrainian Air Force has reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with the threat of ballistic weaponry use in multiple regions. Air alerts have been declared in the Zaporizhzhia and Samara regions, and Mykolaiv has suffered a ballistic missile attack. The transfer of 90 Patriot missiles from Israel to Ukraine, if confirmed, represents a significant boost to Ukrainian air defenses. The reported targeting and killing of an Austrian officer near Orikhiv highlights the continued involvement of foreign fighters in the conflict.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. The fall of Velyka Novosilka represents a significant strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces, opening up avenues for further advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka, Udachne, and expanding their control zone. Ukrainian defenses are under immense pressure.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Severnyi district, with Russian forces approaching the western outskirts and launching offensives south of the railway station.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city, south of the "Fomikha" mine, for the "Toretska" mine, and the village of Krymske.
Other Locations: Fighting continues in Zverevo, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Bogatyrskoe Direction: Russian assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka west of Andreevka. In Andreevka, Russian units have appeared in the western part of the settlement. South of Dachnoe, Russian forces are fighting in a large Ukrainian stronghold. Fierce fighting is ongoing in the Zelenovka area.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and consolidating their control. Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including the confirmed liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino. Russian forces have reportedly advanced north of Guevo.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
In Tetkino, Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops.
Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south.
Losses: The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly lost over 55,000 troops, 319 tanks, 238 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armored personnel carriers, 1,626 armored fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 US-made MLRS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 103 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, 4 air defense radars, 32 engineering vehicles (including 13 obstacle-clearing vehicles, 1 UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, 9 armored recovery vehicles, and 1 command post vehicle) in the Kursk region since the beginning of hostilities.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Increased drone activity is reported, with attacks targeting Kharkiv and surrounding areas. A fire broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. They have occupied the forest near Zapadne and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Kupiansk: The city is under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have taken the initiative. Russian forces have reportedly taken Dvurichna and are advancing towards Kupyansk.

Zaporizhzhia Region

The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs being launched by tactical aircraft in the region.
An air raid alert has been declared in the region.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries near Orikhiv, including a veteran of the Austrian special forces.

Other Regions

Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defenses are active, with reports of drones being shot down in various regions. New reports indicate drone activity in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions, as well as near Hurivka. New reports indicate drone activity in the central parts of Kirovohrad and Poltava regions, the western part of Dnipropetrovsk, and from Kherson towards Mykolaiv.
Smolensk Region (Russia): Civilian infrastructure and a nuclear energy facility were reportedly targeted by a massive drone attack. At least one drone was reportedly shot down during an attempted attack on the nuclear facility in Desnogorsk.
Tver Region (Russia): An attack by 14 drones has been reported in the Toropetsky district.
Nizhny Novgorod Region (Russia): Drone activity reported, with debris from a downed drone falling on the territory of an enterprise in the Kstovo industrial zone, causing a fire.
Odesa: Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties reported due to a Russian drone attack.
Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with air defenses active and damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
Dnipro: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
Mykolaiv: The city has come under attack, with reports indicating the use of ballistic missiles. Two women were killed in a missile strike.

Military Analysis

The overall military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with a significant escalation in attacks on Russian territory. The new reports of drone attacks on civilian infrastructure and a nuclear energy facility in the Smolensk region, as well as drone activity in the Nizhny Novgorod and Tver regions, represent a major escalation and expansion of the conflict. The attacks on the Kstovo industrial zone are particularly concerning. The movement of new drones has also been reported on the border of Sumy and Poltava regions, in the northwestern part of Kharkiv region, and south of Kam'yanske, Dnipropetrovsk region, as well as in the central parts of Kirovohrad and Poltava regions, the western part of Dnipropetrovsk, and from Kherson towards Mykolaiv.

The situation in the Kursk region indicates a shift in momentum, with Russian forces regaining territory and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks.

The attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, indicate a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale.

The Ukrainian military is facing significant challenges in maintaining defensive positions and countering Russian advances. The reported losses in personnel and equipment, coupled with the ongoing pressure on multiple fronts, are likely straining Ukrainian capabilities.

The new reports of drone activity and the threat of ballistic weaponry use underscore the need for Ukraine to enhance its air defense capabilities.

Strategic Implications

The continued Russian advances and the intensity of the fighting suggest that the conflict may be entering a new phase, with a potential shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces. The situation requires a reassessment of Ukrainian defensive strategies and a focus on strengthening positions, securing supply lines, and enhancing counter-drone capabilities.

The international community's response to the evolving situation will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict. Continued military and financial aid to Ukraine, particularly in the form of air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and counter-drone technology, will be essential in bolstering Ukrainian defenses.

The ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure indicate a deliberate strategy by Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale. This underscores the need for Ukraine to strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure and to develop contingency plans for dealing with potential disruptions.

The situation in the Kursk region, with Russian forces regaining territory and consolidating their control, suggests a potential shift in the focus of military operations. This could lead to increased fighting along the border areas and potentially further incursions into Ukrainian territory.

The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights the importance of electronic warfare capabilities in modern conflict. The ability to counter enemy drones, disrupt their communications, and protect friendly forces from enemy surveillance will be crucial for maintaining an advantage on the battlefield.

The new air raid alerts and reports of drone activity signal a potential escalation in aerial attacks, particularly targeting strategic locations and infrastructure. This underscores the ongoing threat to civilians and the need for robust air defense systems. The increased activity of Russian tactical aviation and the threat of ballistic weaponry use further emphasize the need for Ukraine to enhance its air defense capabilities and to prepare for potential escalations in aerial warfare.

The new reports of attacks on Russian territory, particularly targeting civilian infrastructure and a nuclear energy facility, represent a significant escalation in the conflict and could potentially lead to retaliatory strikes by Russia.

New Developments and Updated Situation

Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Reports indicate that civilian objects in the Smolensk region of Russia were subjected to a massive drone attack. One of the drones was reportedly shot down during an attempted attack on a nuclear energy facility in Desnogorsk. An attack by 14 drones was reported in the Toropetsky district of the Tver region. Drone activity was also reported in the Nizhny Novgorod region, with debris from a downed drone falling on the territory of an enterprise in the Kstovo industrial zone, causing a fire.
Drone Activity in Ukraine: New reports indicate the following drone movements: one drone flying past Bashtanka towards Voznesensk, one drone circling in the Voznesensk area, one drone circling at the intersection of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions, and one drone in the west of Kirovohrad region. Two "Shahed" drones are reported over Ukrainian positions near Mala Tokmachka.
US Aid Freeze: Trump's confirmation that he has frozen US foreign aid has significant implications for Ukraine. This could severely impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its war effort.
Propaganda: A video from Donetsk, showing the dire living conditions, serves as a powerful propaganda tool for Ukraine, highlighting the negative impact of Russian influence.
COVID-19 Origin: The report of the CIA changing its position to favor the lab leak theory for the origins of COVID-19 is a significant development. While not directly related to the current military situation, it could have major geopolitical implications.
Attacks in DNR: The report of 23 attacks by Ukrainian forces in DNR indicates the continued fighting in this region.
Putin's Statements on Negotiations: Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the conflict in Ukraine could end within 1.5-2 months if Ukraine runs out of "sponsor money and ammo." He also claimed that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader and cannot sign any documents. Putin emphasized that Russia will seek terms that align with its interests in any negotiations.
Allegations of Corruption: Reports indicate that contractors in the Kursk region have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
Targeting of Foreign Mercenaries: Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries, including a veteran of the Austrian special forces, near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.
New Russian Generals: A Chinese neural network, DeepSeek, has identified what it considers to be the best Russian generals in the war in Ukraine. The list includes General-Colonel Andrei Mordvichev, General Mikhail Teplinsky, General Sergei Surovikin, General Timur Ivanov, and an unnamed General-Colonel.
M2A2 Bradley Losses: The Lostarmour resource reported the loss of 8 additional M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA vehicles in the Kursk direction, bringing the total documented losses to approximately 130.
Slovakian Prime Minister's Statement: Slovakian Prime Minister Fico threatened to block all EU aid to Ukraine if Zelensky does not resume gas transit through Ukraine. He also accused Ukraine of organizing protests in Slovakia.
Drone Strikes in Russia: Video evidence shows the moment of drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region. New reports indicate drone activity in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, with a fire at an oil depot in Kstovo.
New Hangars at Russian Airbase: Satellite imagery from January 6, 2025, shows the appearance of new hangars, shelters, and air defense systems at the Millerovo airbase in Russia.
EU Tariffs on Russian Products: The European Commission is introducing tariffs on a number of agricultural products and nitrogen fertilizers from Russia and Belarus.
Alleged Tanker Fleet: Reports suggest that at least 11 tankers of the "Volgoneft" type are operating in violation of regulations to supply Russia's shadow fleet.
Alleged Plot to Assassinate Rheinmetall CEO: NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai publicly accused Russia of plotting to assassinate Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall.
Patriot Missiles Transfer: The US has reportedly transferred 90 Patriot anti-aircraft guided missiles from Israel to Poland, with the intention of providing them to Ukraine.
Netanyahu's Visit to Washington: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit Washington next week for a meeting with US President Donald Trump.
US Foreign Aid Review: The White House has stated that the Biden administration spent the US budget like "drunken sailors" and that all funding programs will be reviewed.
Intense Drone Strikes: A new video shows 6 minutes of continuous FPV drone strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian positions and personnel in the Kursk region.
Alleged Deal Between Netanyahu and Zelensky: Axios reports, citing anonymous sources, that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approved the transfer of Patriot missiles to Ukraine in exchange for Zelensky allowing the annual pilgrimage of Hasidic Jews to Uman.
Drone Purchase: A new report indicates that 260 drones were purchased for Ukrainian forces, totaling 3.6 million hryvnias and 7.5 thousand dollars.
Targeting of Austrian Officer: Reports indicate that Russian forces targeted and killed Austrian officer Richard Schermann near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region on January 20.
Memorial to Fallen Foreign Fighters: An image shows a memorial patch for international volunteers who have died fighting for Ukraine.
Air Raid Alert in Samara Region: An air raid alert has been declared in the Samara region of Russia, signaling a potential threat from Ukrainian drones or missiles.
Zelensky's Response to Fico: Ukrainian President Zelensky responded to Slovakian Prime Minister Fico's statements, emphasizing the importance of energy security and independence.
New Drone Movements: The Ukrainian Air Force reported the movement of new drones: on the border of Sumy and Poltava regions, in the northwestern part of Kharkiv region, and south of Kam'yanske, Dnipropetrovsk region.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Under Investigation: The Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau has initiated a pre-trial investigation against Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, following a complaint from the Anti-Corruption Center. The investigation is based on allegations of abuse of power or official position.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine has further deteriorated for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, with the fall of Velyka Novosilka confirmed and the situation in Pokrovsk becoming increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains stalled. Drone warfare is intensifying, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and new reports of intense drone activity, including attacks on civilian infrastructure and a nuclear energy facility in the Smolensk region of Russia, and drone activity in the Nizhny Novgorod and Tver regions. The transfer of 90 Patriot missiles from Israel to Ukraine, if confirmed, represents a significant boost to Ukrainian air defenses. The reported targeting and killing of an Austrian officer near Orikhiv highlights the continued involvement of foreign fighters in the conflict. The declaration of an air raid alert in the Samara region of Russia suggests that the conflict may be expanding beyond the immediate border areas. The investigation into Defense Minister Umerov adds another layer of complexity to the internal political situation in Ukraine.

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Accelerate the development and deployment of counter-drone systems, particularly in areas experiencing increased drone activity, to mitigate the threat posed by Russian UAVs. Address the new reports of drone activity in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions, as well as near Hurivka and in the central parts of Kirovohrad and Poltava regions, the western part of Dnipropetrovsk, and from Kherson towards Mykolaiv. Pay special attention to the new reports of drone activity in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and take steps to protect critical infrastructure in the region.
Secure Supply Lines: Ensure the efficient flow of supplies, including ammunition, fuel, and medical supplies, to frontline units. Anticipate and mitigate any logistical challenges caused by Russian advances or attacks on infrastructure.
International Support: Continue to engage with international partners to secure additional military and financial aid, focusing on air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and counter-drone technology. Leverage the reported transfer of Patriot missiles from Israel to Poland.
Adapt to Evolving Tactics: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground, particularly regarding the increasing use of FPV drones and other new technologies by both sides.
Protect Critical Infrastructure: Strengthen defenses around critical infrastructure, such as energy facilities, to prevent further disruptions and damage. Address the reported damage to the energy facility in Uman and enhance protection measures in other vulnerable areas. Pay special attention to the oil depot in Kstovo and other critical infrastructure in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.
Civilian Protection: Develop and implement plans for the protection of civilians in frontline areas, including the establishment of evacuation points and the provision of humanitarian assistance. Address the situation in Mykolaiv and provide support to those affected by the recent missile attack.
Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the intensity of the fighting, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry and securing long-term military and financial aid from international partners.
Address Internal Issues: Investigate and address any internal issues within the Ukrainian military, such as corruption or low morale, to ensure the effectiveness and cohesion of the armed forces. Address the allegations against Defense Minister Umerov promptly and transparently.
Monitor Russian Movements: Continuously monitor Russian troop movements and deployments, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, to anticipate potential offensives and adjust defensive strategies accordingly. Pay close attention to the reported advances near Guevo in the Kursk region.
Exploit Intelligence: Utilize intelligence gathered from reconnaissance drones, captured enemy soldiers, and other sources to identify weaknesses in Russian defenses and plan targeted attacks.
Enhance Electronic Warfare Capabilities: Invest in and deploy electronic warfare systems to counter Russian drones, disrupt their communications, and protect Ukrainian forces from enemy surveillance.
Train for Urban Warfare: Given the increasing focus on urban areas like Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka, provide specialized training to troops on urban warfare tactics and strategies.
Develop Counter-Mobility Measures: Implement counter-mobility measures, such as the deployment of anti-tank mines and obstacles, to slow down Russian advances and channel their movements into areas where they can be more effectively targeted.
Utilize Asymmetric Warfare Tactics: Employ asymmetric warfare tactics, such as ambushes, hit-and-run attacks, and sabotage, to disrupt Russian operations and inflict casualties while minimizing Ukrainian losses.
Prepare for Potential Chemical Attacks: Given the historical use of chemical weapons in the region, prepare for the possibility of chemical attacks by Russian forces. Equip troops with protective gear and train them on decontamination procedures.
Monitor Russian Air Activity: Continuously monitor Russian air activity, particularly the use of Su-34 fighter-bombers and Mi-28NM helicopters, to anticipate potential airstrikes and deploy air defenses accordingly. Address the reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the southeastern direction and the threat of ballistic weaponry use.
Exploit Intelligence on Russian Losses: Utilize intelligence on Russian losses, such as the reported destruction of numerous "Baba Yaga" drones, to assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics and adjust strategies accordingly.
Enhance Cooperation with Local Forces: Strengthen cooperation with local defense forces and civilian resistance groups to gather intelligence, disrupt Russian operations, and enhance the overall defense effort.
Address Potential Infiltration: Be vigilant for potential infiltration by Russian agents or collaborators, particularly in areas near the front lines. Implement security measures to identify and neutralize any internal threats.
Prepare for Long-Term Defense: Given the protracted nature of the conflict, prepare for a long-term defensive posture. Invest in fortifications, establish multiple lines of defense, and ensure the sustainability of the war effort.
Study and Counter New Russian Technology: Conduct a thorough analysis of the "Courier" ground robotic complex's capabilities and develop countermeasures. This may involve developing similar technologies or acquiring systems capable of neutralizing such threats.
Enhance Intelligence Gathering on New Technologies: Increase efforts to gather intelligence on new military technologies being developed and deployed by Russia. This will help Ukraine anticipate and prepare for new threats on the battlefield.
Monitor Drone Activity near Kyiv: Given the report of a drone near Kyiv, reinforce air defenses in the region and ensure that early warning systems are functioning properly. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
Provide Aid to Zaporizhzhia: Ensure that the wounded in Zaporizhzhia receive the necessary medical care and that those affected by the attacks have access to shelter and other essential resources.
Disseminate Information: Share the contact information for the Zaporizhzhia city call center and the regional administration's hotline widely to ensure that those in need can access assistance.
Counter Disinformation: Address the claims made in the video about the alleged attack in Selidovo. Provide accurate information about the incident and counter any false narratives being spread.
Investigate Corruption Allegations: Investigate the allegations of bribery against the former deputy head of the Kirov Military Medical Academy. Take appropriate action if the allegations are found to be true.
Support Gaza: Acknowledge the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and consider providing support or assistance if possible.
Diplomatic Efforts: Engage with international partners to address the issue of North Korean involvement in the conflict and seek their support in condemning such actions.
Monitor Panama Situation: Keep a close eye on the situation in Panama following the US Secretary of State's planned visit and Trump's statements about control over the Panama Canal.
Internal Investigations: Conduct internal investigations into the legality of weapons seized from Russian officials to ensure transparency and accountability.
Counter Drone Strategy: Develop a specific strategy to counter the Russian use of captured and modified Ukrainian drones, including electronic warfare and cyber warfare measures.
Address Potential Threat from Tactical Aviation: Given the reported activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern front, deploy additional air defense systems and fighter jets to counter this threat. Monitor airspace closely and be prepared to intercept any hostile aircraft.
Secure Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia: Given the air raid alerts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, reinforce air defenses in these cities and ensure that early warning systems are functioning properly. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
Investigate Allegations of Corruption: Conduct a thorough and transparent investigation into the allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military, as reported by Colonelcassad. Take appropriate action against any individuals found guilty of such crimes. This is crucial to maintain morale and public trust in the military.
Counter Russian Advances in Pokrovsk Direction: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter Russian advances in Zverevo, towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka.
Monitor Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Monitor Hurivka: Given the new report of a drone flying through Hurivka, deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to the area to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Address Potential Impact of US Border Closure: Analyze the potential impact of the US border closure on Ukraine's situation, particularly regarding the availability of US military aid and resources. Develop contingency plans to address any potential negative consequences.
Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the potential shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding aid to Ukraine. Engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support.
Monitor Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Defend Nikopol: Given the reports of drones near Nikopol, strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to the area to protect against potential attacks.
Address Potential Escalation: Be prepared for potential escalation in drone attacks, particularly in the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions. Strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to counter these threats.
Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
Monitor Drone Activity: Continuously monitor and track drone movements, particularly in the Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy regions. Deploy air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the drone threat.
Strengthen Air Defenses in Zaporizhzhia: Given the recent drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia, deploy additional air defense systems to the city and surrounding areas to intercept incoming drones and protect critical infrastructure. Immediately address the situation in Zaporizhzhia, rescuing those trapped under rubble and providing medical assistance to the wounded. Deploy additional air defense systems and emergency response teams to the city.
Utilize Western Aid: Maximize the use of the recently announced 35 billion euro financial aid package from the EU and the 90 Patriot missiles from Israel. Deploy these resources strategically to bolster defenses, procure necessary equipment, and support the civilian population.
Address Drone Movements in Central Ukraine: Deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to the central parts of Kirovohrad and Poltava regions, the western part of Dnipropetrovsk, and from Kherson towards Mykolaiv to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Prepare for Increased Drone Activity: Given the new reports of drone movements, prepare for a potential increase in drone activity across the country. Deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to key locations, and ensure that rapid response units are ready to counter incoming drones.
Enhance Drone Warfare Capabilities: Given the success of Ukrainian drone strikes in the Kursk region, continue to invest in and develop drone warfare capabilities. Utilize drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks on Russian positions, vehicles, and personnel.
Address Air Danger in Lipetsk Oblast: Coordinate with international partners to monitor the situation in Lipetsk Oblast and provide support if necessary.
Counter Russian Advances: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter Russian advances in the Donetsk region. Focus on reinforcing defensive positions in key areas, particularly around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk.
Address Logistical Challenges: Ensure the efficient flow of supplies, including ammunition, fuel, and medical supplies, to frontline units. Anticipate and mitigate any logistical challenges caused by Russian advances or attacks on infrastructure.
Monitor Drone Activity: Continuously monitor and track drone movements, particularly in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Hurivka regions. Deploy air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the drone threat. Address the new reports of drone activity in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and take steps to protect critical infrastructure in the region, particularly the oil depot in Kstovo. Pay particular attention to the reports of drone activity in the Smolensk and Tver regions, including the reported attack on a nuclear energy facility. Deploy additional air defense systems and enhance early warning capabilities in these regions.
Engage Diplomatically: Address the US aid freeze and Slovakian Prime Minister's statement through diplomatic channels. Engage with international partners to secure alternative sources of military and financial aid.
Investigate Allegations: Conduct thorough and transparent investigations into the allegations of corruption in the Kursk region and the alleged deal between Netanyahu and Zelensky. Take appropriate action against any individuals found guilty of such crimes. Address the allegations against Defense Minister Umerov promptly and transparently.
Utilize New Technologies: Continue to invest in and deploy new technologies, such as the fiber-optic-controlled drones used by Russian forces. Develop countermeasures and enhance Ukrainian capabilities in this area.
Protect Critical Infrastructure: Strengthen defenses around critical infrastructure, such as energy facilities, to prevent further disruptions and damage. Address the reported damage to the energy facility in Uman and enhance protection measures in other vulnerable areas.
Civilian Protection: Develop and implement plans for the protection of civilians in frontline areas, including the establishment of evacuation points and the provision of humanitarian assistance. Address the situation in Mykolaiv and provide support to those affected by the recent missile attack.
Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses.
Respond to Drone Movements: Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones reported near Bashtanka, Voznesensk, at the intersection of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions, and in the western part of Kirovohrad region.
Address Drone Threat near Mala Tokmachka: Deploy air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the reported "Baba Yaga" drones near Mala Tokmachka.
Enhance Security in Smolensk and Tver Regions: Given the reports of drone attacks in these regions, increase vigilance and deploy additional security measures to protect critical infrastructure, particularly the nuclear energy facility in Desnogorsk.
Investigate and Respond to Kstovo Incident: Conduct a thorough investigation into the incident at the Kstovo industrial zone, assess the damage, and take steps to prevent future attacks. Provide support to those affected by the fire.
Coordinate with Regional Governors: Maintain close communication and coordination with regional governors, such as those in Smolensk, Tver, and Nizhny Novgorod, to ensure a unified and effective response to drone attacks and other threats.
Monitor Drone Activity in Tver Region: Given the report of drones flying towards the Tver region, deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.

These recommendations are based on the current situation and available information. The situation is constantly evolving, and recommendations may need to be adjusted accordingly.

Situation Report