Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

January 28, 2025, 21:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk region and along the Kursk and Zaporizhzhia borders. Russian forces continue to make significant advances, particularly in Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces are facing mounting pressure, especially in the Donetsk region, where key settlements are under threat. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing UAVs extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks, including new reports of intense drone activity in multiple regions. The Ukrainian Air Force has reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with the threat of ballistic weaponry use in multiple regions, including Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv. An air alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia and Samara regions, and Mykolaiv has suffered a ballistic missile attack resulting in the deaths of two women. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that T-90M Proryv tanks of the Zapad Group of Forces are supporting assault operations, targeting platoon strongholds, UAV command posts, and anti-tank grenade launcher positions. Lipetsk Oblast in Russia has declared an air danger regime. Slovakian Prime Minister Fico threatened to block all EU aid to Ukraine if Zelensky does not resume gas transit through Ukraine and accused Ukraine of organizing protests in Slovakia. New reports indicate drone activity in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions, as well as near Hurivka. The movement of new drones has also been reported: on the border of Sumy and Poltava regions, in the northwestern part of Kharkiv region, and south of Kam'yanske, Dnipropetrovsk region.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. Russian forces are clearing the remaining areas. The fall of Velyka Novosilka represents a significant strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces, opening up avenues for further advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Video evidence shows the aftermath of fighting in Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces in control of the town. Russian forces, including those from Buryatia, have reportedly raised the Russian flag over the settlement, specifically at a hospital building.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka, Udachne, and expanding their control zone. Ukrainian defenses are under immense pressure, with reports of heavy losses and difficulties in holding positions. Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city. Video evidence shows a soldier with the call sign "Ayvengo" and his comrades eliminating a Russian soldier near Kurakhove. There is new video evidence of a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M113 APC near Pokrovsk. There is also video evidence of Russian forces engaging Ukrainian positions, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank. A recent video shows the aftermath of a Russian FPV drone attack on a concentration of vehicles near a service station in Rodinskoye, in the Pokrovsk direction. At least four vehicles were destroyed, three of which were minibusses.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Severnyi district, with Russian forces approaching the western outskirts and launching offensives south of the railway station.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city, south of the "Fomikha" mine, for the "Toretska" mine, and the village of Krymske. Ukrainian forces have reportedly shown battles for the "Toretska" mine, which is described as their last defense node in the city, with 90-95% of the city reportedly under Russian control.
Other Locations: Fighting continues in Zverevo, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Bogatyrskoe Direction: Russian assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka west of Andreevka. In Andreevka, Russian units have appeared in the western part of the settlement. South of Dachnoe, Russian forces are fighting in a large Ukrainian stronghold. Fierce fighting is ongoing in the Zelenovka area.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and consolidating their control. Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including the confirmed liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino. Russian forces have reportedly advanced north of Guevo, pushing Ukrainian forces out of a forested area and a children's camp.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
In Tetkino, Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops, using FPV drones and artillery.
Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south, fighting is going on near Kurylivka.
Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade are reportedly using drones to destroy Russian equipment.
New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle with two drones near the Kursk border.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff has released a map of the Kursk front for the first time, acknowledging the loss of approximately 70% of the territories occupied in August. Russian forces have reportedly liberated about fifteen settlements in the Kursk region. The map broadly aligns with the actual situation, confirming reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Losses: The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly lost over 55,000 troops, 319 tanks, 238 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armored personnel carriers, 1,626 armored fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 US-made MLRS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 103 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, 4 air defense radars, 32 engineering vehicles (including 13 obstacle-clearing vehicles, 1 UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, 9 armored recovery vehicles, and 1 command post vehicle) in the Kursk region since the beginning of hostilities.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Increased drone activity is reported, with attacks targeting Kharkiv and surrounding areas. A fire broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack, causing power and water supply issues.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. They have occupied the forest near Zapadne and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Kupiansk: The city is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have taken the initiative. Russian forces have reportedly taken Dvurichna and are advancing towards Kupyansk.

Zaporizhzhia Region

The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs being launched by tactical aircraft in the region.
An air raid alert has been declared in the region.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle and thwarted a Ukrainian rotation in the Zaporizhzhia region.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries near Orikhiv, including a veteran of the Austrian special forces.

Other Regions

Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple regions, including Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, and Vasylkiv areas. Ukrainian air defenses are active, with reports of drones being shot down in various regions. New reports indicate drone activity in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions, as well as near Hurivka.
Odesa: Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties reported due to a Russian drone attack.
Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with air defenses active and damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
Dnipro: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
Air raid alerts have been reported in multiple regions of Ukraine.
Mykolaiv: The city has come under attack, with reports indicating the use of ballistic missiles. The situation is critical, and further information is pending. The city is under Russian attack, targeting a private enterprise. Two women were killed in a missile strike.

Military Analysis

The overall military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure, with reports indicating a potential collapse of defenses in Toretsk. The new reports of Russian advances in Toretsk and the video evidence from Ukrainian forces highlight the critical situation in the city.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively. Ukrainian forces are employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks on Russian positions, vehicles, and personnel. Russian forces are using drones for similar purposes, as well as for targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, as evidenced by the attacks on energy facilities in Kharkiv and Uman. The new reports of drone activity in multiple regions, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and near Hurivka, indicate a potential escalation in aerial warfare. The movement of new drones has also been reported: on the border of Sumy and Poltava regions, in the northwestern part of Kharkiv region, and south of Kam'yanske, Dnipropetrovsk region.

The situation in the Kursk region indicates a shift in momentum, with Russian forces regaining territory and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. The reported involvement of North Korean soldiers adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The reported advance north of Guevo and the clearing of Ukrainian forces from a forested area and a children's camp further demonstrate the Russian gains in this area. The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff acknowledging the loss of approximately 70% of the territories occupied in August in the Kursk region further underscores the shift in momentum.

The increased drone activity across multiple regions suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare, with both sides attempting to gain an advantage through the use of UAVs. The attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, indicate a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale. The new reports of an air alert in the Zaporizhzhia region and the threat of guided aerial bombs highlight the continued threat to this area.

The Ukrainian military is facing significant challenges in maintaining defensive positions and countering Russian advances. The reported losses in personnel and equipment, coupled with the ongoing pressure on multiple fronts, are likely straining Ukrainian capabilities.

The reported use of reconnaissance spheres by Ukrainian forces, as reported in previous updates, demonstrates an effort to enhance situational awareness and gather intelligence on Russian troop movements and positions. However, the effectiveness of this new technology in countering the Russian advance remains to be seen.

The reported use of fiber-optic-controlled drones by Russian forces represents a technological advancement that could pose a significant challenge to Ukrainian defenses. These drones are more resistant to electronic warfare, making them harder to counter. The new reports of drone activity and the threat of ballistic weaponry use underscore the need for Ukraine to enhance its air defense capabilities. The 414th Separate Rifle Battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has shown a new effective method of combating Russian drones, including those controlled by fiber optics.

Strategic Implications

The continued Russian advances and the intensity of the fighting suggest that the conflict may be entering a new phase, with a potential shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces. The situation requires a reassessment of Ukrainian defensive strategies and a focus on strengthening positions, securing supply lines, and enhancing counter-drone capabilities.

The international community's response to the evolving situation will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict. Continued military and financial aid to Ukraine, particularly in the form of air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and counter-drone technology, will be essential in bolstering Ukrainian defenses. The Italian Parliament's approval of continued military aid to Ukraine in 2025 is a positive development for Ukraine.

The potential involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, if confirmed, could further complicate the geopolitical landscape and potentially lead to increased tensions between Russia and North Korea on one side, and Western powers on the other.

The ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, indicate a deliberate strategy by Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale. This underscores the need for Ukraine to strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure and to develop contingency plans for dealing with potential disruptions.

The situation in the Kursk region, with Russian forces regaining territory and consolidating their control, suggests a potential shift in the focus of military operations. This could lead to increased fighting along the border areas and potentially further incursions into Ukrainian territory.

The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights the importance of electronic warfare capabilities in modern conflict. The ability to counter enemy drones, disrupt their communications, and protect friendly forces from enemy surveillance will be crucial for maintaining an advantage on the battlefield.

The new air raid alert in the Samara and Zaporizhzhia regions signals a potential escalation in aerial attacks, particularly targeting strategic locations and infrastructure. This underscores the ongoing threat to civilians and the need for robust air defense systems. The increased activity of Russian tactical aviation and the threat of ballistic weaponry use further emphasize the need for Ukraine to enhance its air defense capabilities and to prepare for potential escalations in aerial warfare.

The new reports of a ballistic missile attack on Mykolaiv highlight the continued threat to this city and the need for robust air defense systems. The deaths of two women in this attack underscore the human cost of the conflict and the vulnerability of civilians.

New Developments and Updated Situation

Drone Activity: Lipetsk Oblast in Russia has declared an air danger regime, suggesting that Ukrainian drone attacks may be reaching deeper into Russian territory. This could have implications for Russian air defense strategies and resource allocation.
US Aid Freeze: Trump's confirmation that he has frozen US foreign aid has significant implications for Ukraine. This could severely impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its war effort, potentially leading to a shift in the balance of power on the battlefield. The Ukrainian government is set to begin consultations with the US to restore funding for USAID. Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Iryna Vereshchuk, stated that while this is an unexpected and unpleasant development, Ukraine will work to address the issue.
Propaganda: A video from Donetsk, showing the dire living conditions, serves as a powerful propaganda tool for Ukraine, highlighting the negative impact of Russian influence.
COVID-19 Origin: The report of the CIA changing its position to favor the lab leak theory for the origins of COVID-19 is a significant development. While not directly related to the current military situation, it could have major geopolitical implications, potentially affecting relations between the US, China, and other countries. This could indirectly influence the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine.
Attacks in DNR: The report of 23 attacks by Ukrainian forces in DNR indicates the continued fighting in this region. It also signals that the Ukrainian forces might be trying to take some pressure off of other fronts.
Putin's Statements on Negotiations: Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the conflict in Ukraine could end within 1.5-2 months if Ukraine runs out of "sponsor money and ammo." He also claimed that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader and cannot sign any documents. Putin emphasized that Russia will seek terms that align with its interests in any negotiations. He reiterated that negotiations with Ukraine had begun at the start of the conflict and that Russia had proposed that Kyiv withdraw from the territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, which would have ended hostilities.
Allegations of Corruption: Reports indicate that contractors in the Kursk region have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications. The Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation is demanding compensation from the contractors.
Targeting of Foreign Mercenaries: Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries, including a veteran of the Austrian special forces, near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.
New Russian Generals: A Chinese neural network, DeepSeek, has identified what it considers to be the best Russian generals in the war in Ukraine. The list includes:
1. General-Colonel Andrei Mordvichev: Known for leading the assault on Avdiivka and the offensive on Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Selidovo. He commanded the "Center" group, which liberated over 4,500 sq km of territory in 2024.
2. General Mikhail Teplinsky: Commander of the Southern Group of Forces, responsible for operations in the South Donetsk direction. He is credited with successes in the encirclement of Vuhledar.
3. General Sergei Surovikin ("Armageddon"): Known for his tough tactics and use of artillery. He was involved in operations outside Ukraine in 2024-2025, and previously organized the defense in the Kharkiv direction.
4. General Timur Ivanov: Despite being under investigation for fraud, he is noted for his contributions to logistics and troop supply.
5. Unnamed General-Colonel: Led the capture of Vuhledar using tactics of operational encirclement.
The network highlights the use of encirclement tactics, hypersonic weapons ("Oreshnik"), and coordination between different branches of the military as key factors in their success. It predicts that General Mordvichev may lead the advance towards the Dnieper River and that the role of hypersonic systems and drones will increase.
M2A2 Bradley Losses: The Lostarmour resource reported the loss of 8 additional M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA vehicles in the Kursk direction, bringing the total documented losses to approximately 130, with several dozen more damaged. The US has supplied over 300 of these vehicles to Ukraine. The vehicles are noted to be equipped with add-on BRAT reactive armor and anti-drone measures, with a total weight reaching 38 tons.
Slovakian Prime Minister's Statement: Slovakian Prime Minister Fico threatened to block all EU aid to Ukraine if Zelensky does not resume gas transit through Ukraine. He also accused Ukraine of organizing protests in Slovakia.
Drone Strikes in Russia: Video evidence shows the moment of drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region.
New Hangars at Russian Airbase: Satellite imagery from January 6, 2025, shows the appearance of new hangars, shelters, and air defense systems at the Millerovo airbase in Russia. These were not present in October 2024.
EU Tariffs on Russian Products: The European Commission is introducing tariffs on a number of agricultural products and nitrogen fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. These tariffs will not affect Russian exports to third countries.
Alleged Tanker Fleet: Reports suggest that at least 11 tankers of the "Volgoneft" type, which have been involved in accidents in the Black Sea, are operating in violation of regulations to supply Russia's shadow fleet. These tankers have reportedly made nearly 200 voyages from Rostov-on-Don to the port of Kavkaz in 2024 and January 2025, delivering 800,000 tons of oil products to storage tankers, with over 80% being unloaded onto foreign-flagged tankers.
Alleged Plot to Assassinate Rheinmetall CEO: NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai publicly accused Russia of plotting to assassinate Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, Europe's largest arms manufacturer. This follows a July 2024 CNN report that US and German intelligence agencies had thwarted a Russian plan to assassinate Papperger. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov dismissed the reports as "fake news."
Patriot Missiles Transfer: The US has reportedly transferred 90 Patriot anti-aircraft guided missiles from Israel to Poland, with the intention of providing them to Ukraine.
Netanyahu's Visit to Washington: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit Washington next week for a meeting with US President Donald Trump.
US Foreign Aid Review: The White House has stated that the Biden administration spent the US budget like "drunken sailors" and that all funding programs will be reviewed.
Intense Drone Strikes: A new video shows 6 minutes of continuous FPV drone strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian positions and personnel in the Kursk region.
Transfer of Patriot Missiles: The US has reportedly transferred 90 Patriot anti-aircraft guided missiles from Israel to Poland, with the intention of providing them to Ukraine.
Alleged Deal Between Netanyahu and Zelensky: Axios reports, citing anonymous sources, that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approved the transfer of Patriot missiles to Ukraine in exchange for Zelensky allowing the annual pilgrimage of Hasidic Jews to Uman. Both Netanyahu's office and an Israeli official have denied this claim, stating that the Patriots were returned to the US. The Pentagon has declined to comment.
Drone Purchase: A new report indicates that 260 drones were purchased for Ukrainian forces, totaling 3.6 million hryvnias and 7.5 thousand dollars.
Targeting of Austrian Officer: Reports indicate that Russian forces targeted and killed Austrian officer Richard Schermann near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region on January 20.
Memorial to Fallen Foreign Fighters: An image shows a memorial patch for international volunteers who have died fighting for Ukraine, indicating the continued involvement of foreign fighters in the conflict.
Air Raid Alert in Samara Region: An air raid alert has been declared in the Samara region of Russia, signaling a potential threat from Ukrainian drones or missiles.
Zelensky's Response to Fico: Ukrainian President Zelensky responded to Slovakian Prime Minister Fico's statements, emphasizing the importance of energy security and independence. He highlighted the recent decision by US President Trump to increase American LNG exports to Europe, contrasting it with the costs of relying on Russian gas.
New Drone Movements: The Ukrainian Air Force reported the movement of new drones: on the border of Sumy and Poltava regions, in the northwestern part of Kharkiv region, and south of Kam'yanske, Dnipropetrovsk region.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine has further deteriorated for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, with the fall of Velyka Novosilka confirmed and the situation in Pokrovsk becoming increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse, although there are unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian forces retaking some positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains stalled. Drone warfare is intensifying, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and new reports of intense drone activity, including an air raid alert in the Samara region of Russia and the movement of new drones on the border of Sumy and Poltava regions, in the northwestern part of Kharkiv region, and south of Kam'yanske, Dnipropetrovsk region. The transfer of 90 Patriot missiles from Israel to Ukraine, if confirmed, represents a significant boost to Ukrainian air defenses. However, the alleged deal between Netanyahu and Zelensky, if true, raises ethical and political questions. The reported targeting and killing of an Austrian officer near Orikhiv highlights the continued involvement of foreign fighters in the conflict and the risks they face. The new video showing 6 minutes of continuous FPV drone strikes by Ukrainian forces demonstrates the intensity of the fighting and the effectiveness of drone warfare. The purchase of 260 additional drones for Ukrainian forces indicates a continued effort to bolster their drone capabilities. The declaration of an air raid alert in the Samara region of Russia suggests that the conflict may be expanding beyond the immediate border areas. The new statements from Zelensky regarding the importance of energy security and his criticism of Fico's reliance on Russia further highlight the geopolitical complexities of the conflict.

Recommendations

Strengthen Defenses: Prioritize the reinforcement of defensive positions in key areas, particularly in the Donetsk region, to counter Russian advances and prevent further encirclement. Focus on Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk, deploying additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Accelerate the development and deployment of counter-drone systems, particularly in areas experiencing increased drone activity, to mitigate the threat posed by Russian UAVs. Address the new reports of drone activity in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions, as well as near Hurivka.
Secure Supply Lines: Ensure the efficient flow of supplies, including ammunition, fuel, and medical supplies, to frontline units. Anticipate and mitigate any logistical challenges caused by Russian advances or attacks on infrastructure.
International Support: Continue to engage with international partners to secure additional military and financial aid, focusing on air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and counter-drone technology. Leverage the Italian Parliament's approval of continued military aid to Ukraine and the reported transfer of Patriot missiles from Israel to Poland.
Adapt to Evolving Tactics: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground, particularly regarding the increasing use of FPV drones and other new technologies by both sides.
Protect Critical Infrastructure: Strengthen defenses around critical infrastructure, such as energy facilities, to prevent further disruptions and damage. Address the reported damage to the energy facility in Uman and enhance protection measures in other vulnerable areas.
Civilian Protection: Develop and implement plans for the protection of civilians in frontline areas, including the establishment of evacuation points and the provision of humanitarian assistance. Address the situation in Mykolaiv and provide support to those affected by the recent missile attack.
Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the intensity of the fighting, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry and securing long-term military and financial aid from international partners.
Address Internal Issues: Investigate and address any internal issues within the Ukrainian military, such as corruption or low morale, to ensure the effectiveness and cohesion of the armed forces.
Monitor Russian Movements: Continuously monitor Russian troop movements and deployments, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, to anticipate potential offensives and adjust defensive strategies accordingly. Pay close attention to the reported advances near Guevo in the Kursk region.
Exploit Intelligence: Utilize intelligence gathered from reconnaissance drones, captured enemy soldiers, and other sources to identify weaknesses in Russian defenses and plan targeted attacks.
Enhance Electronic Warfare Capabilities: Invest in and deploy electronic warfare systems to counter Russian drones, disrupt their communications, and protect Ukrainian forces from enemy surveillance.
Train for Urban Warfare: Given the increasing focus on urban areas like Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka, provide specialized training to troops on urban warfare tactics and strategies.
Develop Counter-Mobility Measures: Implement counter-mobility measures, such as the deployment of anti-tank mines and obstacles, to slow down Russian advances and channel their movements into areas where they can be more effectively targeted.
Utilize Asymmetric Warfare Tactics: Employ asymmetric warfare tactics, such as ambushes, hit-and-run attacks, and sabotage, to disrupt Russian operations and inflict casualties while minimizing Ukrainian losses.
Prepare for Potential Chemical Attacks: Given the historical use of chemical weapons in the region, prepare for the possibility of chemical attacks by Russian forces. Equip troops with protective gear and train them on decontamination procedures.
Monitor Russian Air Activity: Continuously monitor Russian air activity, particularly the use of Su-34 fighter-bombers and Mi-28NM helicopters, to anticipate potential airstrikes and deploy air defenses accordingly. Address the reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the southeastern direction and the threat of ballistic weaponry use.
Exploit Intelligence on Russian Losses: Utilize intelligence on Russian losses, such as the reported destruction of numerous "Baba Yaga" drones, to assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics and adjust strategies accordingly.
Enhance Cooperation with Local Forces: Strengthen cooperation with local defense forces and civilian resistance groups to gather intelligence, disrupt Russian operations, and enhance the overall defense effort.
Address Potential Infiltration: Be vigilant for potential infiltration by Russian agents or collaborators, particularly in areas near the front lines. Implement security measures to identify and neutralize any internal threats.
Prepare for Long-Term Defense: Given the protracted nature of the conflict, prepare for a long-term defensive posture. Invest in fortifications, establish multiple lines of defense, and ensure the sustainability of the war effort.
Study and Counter New Russian Technology: Conduct a thorough analysis of the "Courier" ground robotic complex's capabilities and develop countermeasures. This may involve developing similar technologies or acquiring systems capable of neutralizing such threats.
Enhance Intelligence Gathering on New Technologies: Increase efforts to gather intelligence on new military technologies being developed and deployed by Russia. This will help Ukraine anticipate and prepare for new threats on the battlefield.
Monitor Drone Activity near Kyiv: Given the report of a drone near Kyiv, reinforce air defenses in the region and ensure that early warning systems are functioning properly. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
Provide Aid to Zaporizhzhia: Ensure that the wounded in Zaporizhzhia receive the necessary medical care and that those affected by the attacks have access to shelter and other essential resources.
Disseminate Information: Share the contact information for the Zaporizhzhia city call center and the regional administration's hotline widely to ensure that those in need can access assistance.
Counter Disinformation: Address the claims made in the video about the alleged attack in Selidovo. Provide accurate information about the incident and counter any false narratives being spread.
Investigate Corruption Allegations: Investigate the allegations of bribery against the former deputy head of the Kirov Military Medical Academy. Take appropriate action if the allegations are found to be true.
Support Gaza: Acknowledge the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and consider providing support or assistance if possible.
Diplomatic Efforts: Engage with international partners to address the issue of North Korean involvement in the conflict and seek their support in condemning such actions.
Monitor Panama Situation: Keep a close eye on the situation in Panama following the US Secretary of State's planned visit and Trump's statements about control over the Panama Canal.
Internal Investigations: Conduct internal investigations into the legality of weapons seized from Russian officials to ensure transparency and accountability.
Counter Drone Strategy: Develop a specific strategy to counter the Russian use of captured and modified Ukrainian drones, including electronic warfare and cyber warfare measures.
Address Potential Threat from Tactical Aviation: Given the reported activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern front, deploy additional air defense systems and fighter jets to counter this threat. Monitor airspace closely and be prepared to intercept any hostile aircraft.
Secure Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia: Given the air raid alerts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, reinforce air defenses in these cities and ensure that early warning systems are functioning properly. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
Investigate Allegations of Corruption: Conduct a thorough and transparent investigation into the allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military, as reported by Colonelcassad. Take appropriate action against any individuals found guilty of such crimes. This is crucial to maintain morale and public trust in the military.
Counter Russian Advances in Pokrovsk Direction: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter Russian advances in Zverevo, towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka.
Monitor Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Monitor Hurivka: Given the new report of a drone flying through Hurivka, deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to the area to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Address Potential Impact of US Border Closure: Analyze the potential impact of the US border closure on Ukraine's situation, particularly regarding the availability of US military aid and resources. Develop contingency plans to address any potential negative consequences.
Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the potential shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding aid to Ukraine. Engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support.
Monitor Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Defend Nikopol: Given the reports of drones near Nikopol, strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to the area to protect against potential attacks.
Address Potential Escalation: Be prepared for potential escalation in drone attacks, particularly in the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions. Strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to counter these threats.
Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
Monitor Drone Activity: Continuously monitor and track drone movements, particularly in the Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy regions. Deploy air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the drone threat.
Strengthen Air Defenses in Zaporizhzhia: Given the recent drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia, deploy additional air defense systems to the city and surrounding areas to intercept incoming drones and protect critical infrastructure. Immediately address the situation in Zaporizhzhia, rescuing those trapped under rubble and providing medical assistance to the wounded. Deploy additional air defense systems and emergency response teams to the city.
Utilize Western Aid: Maximize the use of the recently announced 35 billion euro financial aid package from the EU and the 90 Patriot missiles

Situation Report