Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine

Strategic Overview

As of January 28, 2025, the military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. The encirclement and capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including a new attack on Odesa causing damage to residential buildings. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, while Russian forces continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces have completed the encirclement and captured the city. Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River. Ukrainian forces are using "Vampire" and "Baba Yaga" drones to try to stop the Russian advance. The capture of Velyka Novosilka opens up opportunities for Russian forces to advance towards Bohatyr and the remaining part of the Donetsk People's Republic south of the Vovcha River.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance. The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe. Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed. Russian forces are blocking the ability of Ukrainian forces to supply near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), according to Pushilin.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces continue to advance, controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Sievernyi district. Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway. There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of the city. The 38th Separate Engineer-Sapper Battalion is reportedly demining roads in the Chasiv Yar direction.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces. Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories. Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka, with Russian forces advancing from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka. The capture of Andriivka is strategically important for the defense of Ukrainian forces.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities on the Toretsk axis.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities on the Kramatorsk axis.
Other Locations: Fighting continues in Zverevo. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka.
In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed 7,200 Ukrainian soldiers and mercenaries on the borders of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske.
Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses, amounting to over 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, and numerous other military vehicles and equipment.
Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino has been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and in nearby forested areas.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly deployed over 100 paratroopers to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian truck carrying troops near the Kursk border using FPV drones.
Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino in the Kursk region.
Heavy fighting is reported near Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade reportedly repelled a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya. The video shows the body of a North Korean lieutenant colonel, along with his weapons and equipment.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: One drone is approaching Balakliia. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack. Overnight, a drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire, damage to a gas pipe and 5 vehicles. Two civilians suffered acute stress reactions. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district. Two drones were detected in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv, with no reported casualties. In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people. In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling.
Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly transferred a sabotage and reconnaissance group to Belopolye (Sumy Oblast) on armored fighting vehicles, which was detected and destroyed by Russian drone operators.

Other Regions

Drone Activity: Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine. Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds". Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region. Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. Cherkasy Oblast was attacked overnight, with air defenses active. A headquarters for coordinating emergency response has been established in the Umansky district. There is reported damage in the area. New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region. Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro. Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast. Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down. Odesa: There is damage to residential buildings due to a Russian drone attack. Four cars caught fire. Explosions were reported in Odesa. Four people were injured in the drone attack, and one person was rescued from a blocked apartment. A warehouse was also damaged. Ten cars were burned, and windows in three apartment buildings were damaged. Sumy: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region. Uman: A Russian drone attack damaged an energy infrastructure facility. Energy workers are working to restore power supply.
New Drone Movements: Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast. Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia. Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast. Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast. Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district. Another drone is in the eastern part of the region, moving west. Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area. Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast. A drone was detected in the region, changing direction towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast. Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast. Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast.
Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine.
Reports indicate that Russian forces shelled the Nikopol region seven times during the day.
Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports 159 combat engagements in the past day, with 85 occurring in the Pokrovsk direction. They also report that Russia launched 60 guided aerial bombs on Ukraine and 30 on the Kursk region, conducted over 5,000 shelling attacks, including 87 from multiple rocket launchers, and used 2,411 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian air defense and artillery forces struck two areas of personnel concentration and two anti-aircraft missile systems.
Russian air defense reportedly continues to shoot down drones launched by Ukrainian forces in multiple regions. Five drones were destroyed over the Smolensk region, two over the Belgorod region, two over the Bryansk region, and one over Crimea.
The soldiers of the special unit "Wings of Omega" destroyed 2 Russian BTRs along with their crews using FPV drones.
Russian security forces detained a man in Bashkiria who was attempting to join the "Freedom of Russia Legion" (banned in Russia) and cross the border into Ukraine.

Internal Russian Military Situation

51st Army: There is a shortage of personnel on the front lines.
Sports Relays Order: There are reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting.
Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel: Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure. Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair. Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military. Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans. Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military. Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.

Political/Economic Situation

US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days, including aid to Ukraine. The US has frozen the U4U program for Ukrainian refugees. USAID has confirmed the suspension of funding for all programs in Ukraine for 90 days following a State Department order to conduct an audit. Ukrainian organizations and local governments are receiving notifications to suspend activities funded by USAID.
Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended.
Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks rely on foreign components.
Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: European officials are concerned that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations.
EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: The EU has imposed sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks.
Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: Poland plans to invite former US President Donald Trump to the Three Seas Initiative summit.
Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.
Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages.
The volume of chemical production under the federal project is estimated at 11.1 trillion rubles by 2030, according to a report by Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia Mikhail Yurin.
The number of bars in the center of Moscow increased by 8% in 2024, reaching 168.
Russians will be able to withdraw their pension savings in a lump sum if the amount is less than 412,000 rubles.
Demand for magical attributes in Russia has increased by 34% in 2024.
Marketplaces are discussing the transfer of unsold goods to charities, according to "Kommersant." Their total value could reach 300 billion rubles, and this practice will also allow sellers to receive tax benefits.
The Russian Ministry of Justice has filed a lawsuit to liquidate the "Transgender" fund, which provides assistance to individuals with gender deviations, according to TASS. The Kuncevo court reported that the fund's website has been blocked and that its founders have stated that the fund has ceased operations in Russia and they have left the country.
Russian State Duma Deputy Sergei Gavrilov stated that citizens can increase their monthly pension payments by opting for a fixed-term payment of at least 10 years.
The head of the Kamchatka branch of the "Yabloko" party has been sentenced to two years in a penal colony for "discrediting" the army.
The head of the Rostov-on-Don administration, Alexei Logvinenko, has resigned.
The US has stopped the Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) program, which allowed Ukrainian refugees to legally enter and stay in the US for up to two years with the right to work.

Information Warfare

DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, contradicting official Ukrainian reports. They also report that Russian forces have advanced near several settlements.
"Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel: A user on the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel warned about a suspicious account, potentially linked to either Russian authorities or the enemy.
Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel: Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure. Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them. Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military. Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans. Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military. Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.
Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments.
Ukrainian and Russian Media Reports: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight the discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground.
Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
The channel "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports on the activities of Russian airborne forces and shares a video of musician Andrey Makarevich stating he is not ready to help the Kyiv regime. It also reports on a Russian airstrike on Ukrainian positions in Malaya Loknya in the Kursk region.
The "Rybare" channel provides a summary of the situation on the morning of January 28, 2025, highlighting the liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino in the Kursk region, ongoing battles in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and the strategic importance of Velyka Novosilka. It also mentions drone attacks and shelling incidents.
The "Operatsiya Z" channel shared an image and a description of the situation near Kurakhove, highlighting the importance of Andriivka.
The "Operativny ZSU" channel shared images and a description of the aftermath of a drone attack on Kharkiv. It also reports on damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman due to a Russian attack.
Images of the aftermath of the drone attack on Odesa are being shared on social media.
The Israeli ambassador to Ukraine, Michael Brodsky, refuted a statement from The Telegraph about the alleged transfer of captured Russian weapons from Lebanon to Ukraine, calling it a private initiative by a former Knesset member.
Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin announced that the parliament will consider a bill to protect citizens from forced additional paid services.
Ukrainian media reports on the aftermath of Russian drone attacks on Kharkiv, Odesa, and Chernihiv, highlighting damage to civilian infrastructure and property.
The head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Ivan Fedorov, reported that two women and two men were injured in a Russian attack on the Vasylivskyi district.
"Operatsiya Z: Voenkor" reports that the "Otvazhnye" forces have occupied new territories and almost broken through to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway on the right flank near Pokrovsk.
"Kots" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces destroyed three "Leopard" tanks, one "Bradley" BMP, and two "Marder" BMPs in the Kursk direction.
"Voin DV" Telegram channel reports that the "Vostok" forces have liberated the district center of Velyka Novosilka.
Combined actions of the 5th Tank Brigade of the 36th Army and the 40th Marine Brigade completed the liberation, defeating the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Neskuchne area, a major defense and logistics hub for Ukrainian forces on the South Donetsk direction, equipped with fortifications and protected by three water barriers, has fallen under the control of the "Vostok" group after prolonged battles.
"Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to break through the border near Tetkino in the morning but were repelled by Russian paratroopers and other units.
"Butusov Plus" Telegram channel reports on the destruction of Russian ATVs, trucks, mortars, and infantry by the FPV group of the 3rd Assault Brigade near Kharkiv.
A captured Ukrainian soldier named Aleksey Babenko stated in a video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense that the cemeteries in his hometown are full due to the many casualties on the front lines.
The "Operativny ZSU" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces attacked the Odesa region with drones and a missile in the morning. The missile was reportedly shot down. Debris from downed drones damaged windows in four apartment buildings and five summer houses. Ten cars caught fire in one of the courtyards of Odesa, and the fire has been extinguished. A grain warehouse was also damaged. Four people were injured in the drone attack, with one hospitalized.
The "Operativny ZSU" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces attacked the residential sector of Chernihiv with drones, damaging homes and outbuildings. There are no reported casualties.

Military Movements

Tetkino, Kursk region: Video message from the "Kots" Telegram channel reports on a Ukrainian reconnaissance-in-force operation near Tetkino, which was repelled by Russian drone operators and artillery. "Kots" suggests that such attempts will increase as Russian forces approach Sudzha, as the Ukrainian command fears a Russian offensive in the Sumy region if they retreat from the Kursk region. "Kots" identifies Tetkino, Rylsky, and Khomutovsky districts, as well as the Bryansk region's border with the Shostkinsky district of the Sumy region, as likely directions for Ukrainian provocations. "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to break through the border near Tetkino in the morning but were repelled by Russian paratroopers and other units. The video shows the destruction of Ukrainian "MaxxPro" armored vehicles during the attempted breakthrough.
Sevastopol: Colonelcassad reports an air raid alert in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted. "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shares an image showing messages from "Чп / Севастополь" warning of ballistic missile launches from the Mykolaiv region towards western and northwestern Crimea, specifically Tarkhankut. STERNENKO Telegram channel reports on missile danger in occupied Crimea.
Right bank of the Dnieper, Kherson region: Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense via TASS reports that Russian aviation destroyed concentrations of Ukrainian troops on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region. An operator of the "Orlan-10" UAV with the call sign "Banker" reported the operation to TASS.
Zaporizhzhia region: Ukrainian forces from the 141st Mechanized Brigade are targeting enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones.
Ryazan oil refinery: "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel releases a promo video from the 14th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles of the Special Forces about the recent attack on the Ryazan oil refinery. The video shows explosions and fires at the refinery, as well as social media posts about the attack.
Kupyansk: "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces are intensely shelling Kupyansk with KABs, damaging at least four private houses and power lines. "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel reports on battles near Kupyansk, with the 27th Brigade destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment while advancing in the Kharkiv region. The 27th Brigade continues to advance after the liberation of Lozove, moving forward and destroying Ukrainian equipment, positions, and personnel.

Military Equipment

"Орешник" system: Lukashenko stated that the "Орешник" system will be deployed in Belarus closer to Smolensk. Lukashenko stated that the next "Орешник" installation will be delivered to Belarus even earlier than to Russia. Colonelcassad reports that after the Wagner PMC and nuclear weapons, Belarus under Lukashenko has also received the "Орешник." Colonelcassad speculates about the possibility of Belarus receiving an ocean fleet and "Poseidon." The Russian state news agency TASS reported Lukashenko's statement about the "Орешник" system. A photo caption from "Дневник Десантника" states that "NATO Death - Oreshnik" will be delivered to Belarus any day now. Alex Parker Returns questions the purpose of Belarus's militarization and whether this military potential can be reversed later. Alex Parker Returns expresses concern about the possibility of a hostile regime change in Belarus in the future, potentially creating a nuclear state on Russia's borders. Alex Parker Returns criticizes the policy of demilitarizing Russia while militarizing Belarus under the "multi-vector" Lukashenko.
FPV drones: Video evidence shows Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold. Video evidence shows a group of operators from the FPV GВ "North" chasing an enemy tank in the Kursk border area. Video evidence shows an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area. "Butusov Plus" Telegram channel reports on the destruction of Russian ATVs, trucks, mortars, and infantry by the FPV group of the 3rd Assault Brigade. "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shows a video of an FPV drone strike on a hidden Russian tank, resulting in an epic detonation. "Бутусов Плюс" Telegram channel shares a video of a Russian commander berating a subordinate for communication failures, highlighting issues with discipline and morale within Russian units.
UAVs: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russia used 2,411 kamikaze drones in the past day. Video evidence shows soldiers of the special unit "Wings of Omega" destroying two Russian BTRs along with their crews using FPV drones.

Geopolitical Developments

Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine, with Zelensky requesting a direct US presence.
Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
Bloomberg reports that European allies agree that the US should provide troops for any future peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
Preparation for direct negotiations between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump on a possible truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the only topic of discussion within the Politburo.
Part of the Russian leadership put forward a claim to the "Russian city of Narva" on the agenda of the negotiations.
Representatives of the Politburo were told that Trump intends to block all opportunities for Russia to bypass sanctions and "put an end to the gray fleet" that transports Russian oil products.
A telephone conversation between "Putin" and Trump could take place in the next three days.
The agreement on Ukraine was not reached because Zelensky wanted to fight.
Trump administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
China has reiterated its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine, as stated by the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the US, Liu Pengyu, in response to Trump's comments on expecting Beijing's assistance in resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
The EU has called the presidential elections in Belarus a "complete fake".
Saudi Arabia responded to Trump's proposal to collapse oil prices by stating that Riyadh is focused on "long-term stability of the oil market."
China responded to Trump's request for assistance in ending the war in Ukraine, stating that they are "ready to see all sides play a constructive role and create conditions for de-escalation and a political settlement of the crisis."
The heads of foreign affairs of 27 EU countries will discuss on January 27th the 16th package of sanctions against Russia and the use of its frozen assets, according to an EU representative.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Russia's demand for Ukraine to refuse to join NATO, stating that the architecture of European security is built on protection from Russia and that Russia has no say in this matter.
US Secretary of State Blinken removed the official statement on the non-recognition of the future presidential elections in Belarus.
NATO plans to share classified data on military production with the EU and defense industry representatives, according to Bloomberg.
Trump reportedly plans to hold a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, followed by discussions with Ukrainian authorities.
A potential meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin is proposed for February-early March 2025 to agree on the main parameters of a peace plan.
A ceasefire is proposed from April 20, 2025, with the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region.
An International Peace Conference is proposed for late April 2025 to formalize an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the US, China, European countries, and the "global south."
A declaration of the end of the war is proposed by May 9, 2025, with Ukraine lifting martial law and mobilization.
Presidential elections in Ukraine are proposed for late August 2025, followed by parliamentary and local elections in late October.
Proposed parameters of the agreement include Ukraine declaring neutrality, not joining NATO, and maintaining its army with US support.
Ukraine would join the EU by 2030, with the EU responsible for post-war reconstruction.
Ukraine would not recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories but would refrain from military attempts to regain them.
Some sanctions against Russia would be lifted after the agreement, with others phased out over three years.
EU is concerned about the cooling of relations with the US administration under Trump.
EU's Kaja Kallas invited Marco Rubio to a meeting of EU foreign ministers, but no response has been received yet.
No high-ranking EU representatives attended Trump's inauguration.
Trump has already spoken with the Danish PM, and Rubio has spoken with over a dozen foreign ministers, but not with any EU representatives.
Politico describes the situation as a "cold shower" for the EU, marking a shift from the friendly relations with the Biden administration.
The head of administration of an Iraqi president says that the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime made people realize that Russia may not stay forever.
He also states that political work is needed from Moscow in Iraq, not just economic expansion.
He claims that Russian diplomatic representatives are less active than those from the US, UK, Japan, and even Ukraine.
Tucker Carlson claimed that Democrats tried to assassinate Putin.
The US administration under Trump is reportedly halting cooperation with the EU and favoring direct contacts with individual European countries.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be dominated by Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a significant gain for Russian forces, and the ongoing battles around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove indicate a sustained offensive. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating their positions and inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian troops. Drone warfare remains a key feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The extensive drone activity across multiple regions, including attacks on Odesa and inside Russia, highlights the evolving nature of the conflict and the increasing importance of drone technology.

The internal situation within the Russian military remains complex, with reports of personnel shortages, questionable orders, and criticisms from military bloggers. The political and economic situation is marked by the suspension of US aid to Ukraine, the extension of the deadline for military re-evaluation, and ongoing geopolitical maneuvering. The information warfare landscape is characterized by conflicting reports, propaganda, and the use of social media to shape public perception.

Geopolitically, the situation is marked by a potential shift in US policy under the Trump administration, with a focus on bilateral relations with European countries rather than engaging with the EU as a whole. This has caused concern within the EU and could impact the future of European security cooperation. The proposed peace plan involving Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, while speculative, highlights the ongoing efforts to find a resolution to the conflict. The involvement of China and other international actors further complicates the geopolitical landscape.

The new messages add several layers to the overall situation. The reported drone attack on Odesa, with damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties, underscores the continued impact of the war on civilians. The ongoing drone warfare, with a reported 100 drones launched by Russia overnight and 65 shot down by Ukrainian air defenses, highlights the intensity of this aspect of the conflict. The political developments, particularly the US decision to halt most foreign aid and the EU's concerns about being sidelined, could have significant ramifications for Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts. The internal Russian military situation, with reports of personnel shortages and criticisms from military bloggers, suggests potential weaknesses within the Russian forces.

Overall, the situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and complex, with ongoing military operations, intense drone warfare, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and a significant humanitarian impact. The new information further emphasizes the critical role of international support, the challenges of sustaining a prolonged conflict, and the evolving nature of modern warfare.

Situation Report