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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-01-28 06:10:23Z
5 months ago
Previous (2025-01-28 05:40:00Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 28, 2025, 06:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement and capture of Velyka Novosilka are major strategic and symbolic victories for Russian forces, opening avenues for further advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory, including the confirmed liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino, and inflicting heavy losses. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including a new attack on Odesa, an overnight attack on Cherkasy Oblast causing damage and requiring the deployment of air defense, and attacks on Uman affecting energy infrastructure. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, while Russian forces continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes. Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian truck carrying troops near the Kursk border.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

  • Velyka Novosilka:
    • Russian forces have completed the encirclement and captured the city, signifying a major symbolic victory and a significant strategic loss for Ukraine.
    • Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River.
    • Ukrainian forces are using "Vampire" and "Baba Yaga" drones to try to stop the Russian advance.
    • Russian forces are advancing from Velyka Novosilka towards Dnipropetrovsk.
    • The capture of Velyka Novosilka opens up opportunities for Russian forces to advance towards Bohatyr and the remaining part of the Donetsk People's Republic south of the Vovcha River.
  • Pokrovsk:
    • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance.
    • The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe.
    • Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting intensifying near Udachne.
    • Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.
    • Russian forces are advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line towards Pokrovsk.
  • Chasiv Yar:
    • Russian forces continue to advance, controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district.
    • Fighting continues in the Sievernyi district.
    • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway.
    • There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
    • Russian forces are advancing towards Chasiv Yar from the southwest.
  • Kurakhove:
    • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces.
    • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
    • Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka, with Russian forces advancing from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka. The capture of Andriivka is strategically important for the defense of Ukrainian forces.
  • Toretsk:
    • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
    • Intense fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Toretsk.
    • Russian forces are advancing towards Toretsk, with ongoing battles on its outskirts.
  • Kramatorsk:
    • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
  • Other Locations:
    • Fighting continues in Zverevo. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka.

Luhansk Region

  • Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
  • They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka.
  • In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
  • Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
  • Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.
  • Russian forces reportedly destroyed 7,200 Ukrainian soldiers and mercenaries on the borders of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week.

Kursk Region

  • The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
  • Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske.
  • Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
  • Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
  • Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses, amounting to over 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, and numerous other military vehicles and equipment.
  • Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino has been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and in nearby forested areas.
  • Ukrainian forces have reportedly deployed over 100 paratroopers to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian truck carrying troops near the Kursk border using FPV drones.

Kharkiv Region

  • Drone Attacks:
    • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
    • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
    • Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack. Overnight, a drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire, damage to a gas pipe and 5 vehicles. Two civilians suffered acute stress reactions. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district.
    • Two drones were detected in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv, with no reported casualties.
    • In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people.
    • In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties.
  • Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling.
  • Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk.
  • Ukrainian forces have reportedly transferred a sabotage and reconnaissance group to Belopolye (Sumy Oblast) on armored fighting vehicles, which was detected and destroyed by Russian drone operators.

Other Regions

  • Drone Activity:
    • Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
    • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds".
    • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
    • All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
    • Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. Cherkasy Oblast was attacked overnight, with air defenses active. A headquarters for coordinating emergency response has been established in the Umansky district. There is reported damage in the area.
    • New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.
    • Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro.
    • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
    • Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down.
    • Odesa: There is damage to residential buildings due to a Russian drone attack. Four cars caught fire. Explosions were reported in Odesa.
    • Sumy: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.
    • Uman: A Russian drone attack damaged an energy infrastructure facility.
  • New Drone Movements:
    • Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast.
    • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia.
    • Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
    • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
    • Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district. Another drone is in the eastern part of the region, moving west.
    • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila.
    • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area.
    • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts.
    • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast. A drone was detected in the region, changing direction towards Mykolaiv Oblast.
    • Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast.
    • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
    • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
    • Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast.
    • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast.
  • Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
  • Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine.
  • Reports indicate that Russian forces shelled the Nikopol region seven times during the day.
  • Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region.

Internal Russian Military Situation

  • 51st Army: There is a shortage of personnel on the front lines.
  • Sports Relays Order: There are reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting.
  • Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
    • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure.
    • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair.
    • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military.
    • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans.
    • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military.
    • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.

Political/Economic Situation

  • US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days, including aid to Ukraine. The US has frozen the U4U program for Ukrainian refugees.
  • Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended.
  • Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
  • Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks rely on foreign components.
  • Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: European officials are concerned that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations.
  • EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: The EU has imposed sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks.
  • Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: Poland plans to invite former US President Donald Trump to the Three Seas Initiative summit.
  • Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.
  • Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages.
  • The volume of chemical production under the federal project is estimated at 11.1 trillion rubles by 2030, according to a report by Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia Mikhail Yurin.
  • The number of bars in the center of Moscow increased by 8% in 2024, reaching 168.
  • Russians will be able to withdraw their pension savings in a lump sum if the amount is less than 412,000 rubles.
  • Demand for magical attributes in Russia has increased by 34% in 2024.

Information Warfare

  • DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, contradicting official Ukrainian reports. They also report that Russian forces have advanced near several settlements.
  • "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel: A user on the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel warned about a suspicious account, potentially linked to either Russian authorities or the enemy.
  • Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
    • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure.
    • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them.
    • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military.
    • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans.
    • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military.
    • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.
  • Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments.
  • Ukrainian and Russian Media Reports: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight the discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground.
  • Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
  • The channel "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports on the activities of Russian airborne forces and shares a video of musician Andrey Makarevich stating he is not ready to help the Kyiv regime. It also reports on a Russian airstrike on Ukrainian positions in Malaya Loknya in the Kursk region.
  • The "Rybare" channel provides a summary of the situation on the morning of January 28, 2025, highlighting the liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino in the Kursk region, ongoing battles in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and the strategic importance of Velyka Novosilka. It also mentions drone attacks and shelling incidents.
  • The "Operatsiya Z" channel shared an image and a description of the situation near Kurakhove, highlighting the importance of Andriivka.
  • The "Operativny ZSU" channel shared images and a description of the aftermath of a drone attack on Kharkiv. It also reports on damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman due to a Russian attack.
  • Images of the aftermath of the drone attack on Odesa are being shared on social media.
  • The Israeli ambassador to Ukraine, Michael Brodsky, refuted a statement from The Telegraph about the alleged transfer of captured Russian weapons from Lebanon to Ukraine, calling it a private initiative by a former Knesset member.
  • Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin announced that the parliament will consider a bill to protect citizens from forced additional paid services.
  • Ukrainian media reports on the aftermath of Russian drone attacks on Kharkiv, Odesa, and Chernihiv, highlighting damage to civilian infrastructure and property.
  • The head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Ivan Fedorov, reported that two women and two men were injured in a Russian attack on the Vasylivskyi district.
Previous (2025-01-28 05:40:00Z)