Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 28, 2025, 04:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement and capture of Velyka Novosilka are major strategic and symbolic victories for Russian forces. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and inflicting heavy losses. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, while Russian forces continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes, including the recent destruction of an Italian "Puma" APC near Hryhorivka.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi to lead the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group in the Donetsk region, while retaining his role as Commander of the Land Forces. This strategic move aims to strengthen the command structure in the face of intense fighting. Andriy Hnatov, who previously led the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group, will be appointed as Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces under Anatoliy Barhylevych. The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:
  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement and captured the city, signifying a major symbolic victory and a significant strategic loss for Ukraine. The city was a major logistics hub for Ukrainian forces.
  • Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River.
  • Video evidence from multiple sources confirms the Russian advance and control over the settlement.
  • Russian forces have raised their flag in Velyka Novosilka over the city hospital, signifying a major symbolic victory. The capture of the city is nearing completion, marking a significant strategic loss for Ukraine. Remnants of Ukrainian forces have retreated to the northwest outskirts.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance, consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
  • The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe, with ongoing battles.
  • Near Baranivka, Russian assault groups are attacking enemy positions towards Tarasivka.
  • Fighting also continues near Zelene Pole and Kalynove.
  • Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting intensifying near Udachne.
  • Reports suggest that the loss of Udachne would significantly weaken Ukrainian defenses in the area.
  • One woman was killed due to a Russian attack on the city of Pokrovsk.
  • Four people were injured in Russian shelling of Konstantinivka.
  • Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
  • They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Sievernyi district.
  • Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
  • The basements and workshops of the refractory plant have been completely cleared.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators targeting Russian positions near Chasiv Yar.
  • The press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade reports that the situation in Chasiv Yar is difficult, with Russian forces deploying units of "Akhmat" and former "Wagner" fighters to reinforce their assault groups.
  • Russian airborne reconnaissance units are utilizing "Reis 11" multi-use FPV drones for attacks on Ukrainian positions and for delivering supplies to the front lines.
  • Russian airborne forces, using T-72B3 tanks, engaged and destroyed Ukrainian strongpoints in the industrial and multi-story building areas of Chasiv Yar from a distance of 5 kilometers.
  • A sniper pair from the 331st Kostroma Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division eliminated enemy combatants in Chasiv Yar.
  • "Lancet" loitering munitions were used by the 98th Airborne Division to destroy a Ukrainian tank near Konstantinovka.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
  • Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
  • Russian forces are conducting assault operations in the Kurakhove direction, with the support of the "Southern" troop grouping.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces capturing Russian soldiers in Toretsk.
  • Intense fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Toretsk, where Ukrainian forces are holding their last defensive lines.
• Kramatorsk:
  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
• Other Locations:
  • Fighting continues in Zverevo, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka, taking control of a forest area between the settlements and continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
• In the direction of Hrekivka Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske, with Russian forces approaching Mala Loknia and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
• Western officials and South Korean intelligence report significant North Korean casualties in the region.
• Reports of North Korean soldiers killing Russian marines and fleeing.
• Reports of an American mercenary known as "Doctor Death" being captured by Russian forces.
• According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, Russian forces in the Kursk direction have neutralized over 180 Ukrainian troops, a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, four armored fighting vehicles, ten motor vehicles, a self-propelled artillery unit, two towed howitzers, a mortar, three electronic warfare stations, two UAV control points, and an ammunition depot.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya.
• New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
• Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
• According to the ministry, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction since the beginning of hostilities have reached 54,460 people. Up to 320 tanks were destroyed.
• In the past day alone, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed more than 190 militants, 3 tanks, 3 armored personnel carriers, 5 armored vehicles, an M777 howitzer, 2 mortars, an electronic warfare station, 6 UAV control points and a warehouse of ammunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers who were advancing on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.
• In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults.
• A Russian "Strela-10" SAM system from the 5th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian "Leleka-100" UAV in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:
  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • One drone is flying from the Kharkiv region towards Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
  • Explosions reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions.
• Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk, destroying approximately 10 units of enemy equipment and inflicting casualties.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:
  • Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west.
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
  • All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
  • Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
  • New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region, with a southern course.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
  • One drone from the Ternopil region is heading towards Ivano-Frankivsk.
  • Two drones from the Khmelnytskyi region have moved into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • One drone from the Vinnytsia region is moving into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • Four drones from the Kirovohrad region are heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
  • One drone is north of Kropyvnytskyi, with a western course.
  • One drone is flying past Dolynska with a western course.
  • One drone is circling near Pavlohrad.
  • Three drones are in the Cherkasy area, with a southwestern course.
  • Three new drones are in the east of the Chernihiv region, with a southwestern course.
  • Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down, with no reported casualties.
  • 5 drones are flying over the Berislav district towards Bereznegovatoe.
  • 1 drone flew over Pokrov in a northerly direction.
  • 2 drones are flying over Pavlograd in a northerly direction.
  • 6 drones are in the Kremenchug region, heading northwest.
  • 2 drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • 1 drone is moving from the Kharkiv region to the Dnepropetrovsk region, and 1 to the Poltava region.
  • 3 drones are moving from the Sumy region to the Poltava region.
  • Groups of drones are moving along the border of the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the east of the Mykolaiv region, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the north of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Kharkiv region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the south and center of the Poltava region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Poltava region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the north of the Sumy region, heading south.
  • Drones are in the east of the Cherkasy region, heading north.
  • Drones are on the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading north.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the Nikopol area, heading towards Kryvyi Rih.
  • Several groups of attack UAVs are moving through the Sumy region towards the Chernihiv region.
  • Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
• New Drone Movements:
  • Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast. New groups of drones are reported in Chernihiv and Sumy regions, with a southwesterly and northwesterly course.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia with a southwestern course. Another drone is heading towards or flying through Kolomyia.
  • Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a western course. Three more drones are moving from Kirovohrad Oblast into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district, with a western course. One drone is south of Kropyvnytskyi, with a western course.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Another drone is in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, with a western course.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area, with a southern course. Two more drones are north of Chernihiv, with a western course. One drone is moving from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast. Another drone is east of Chernihiv, heading towards Nizhyn.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts, with a western course.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, with a western/northwestern course.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a western/northwestern course.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with a western course.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, with a western/southwestern course.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast, with a southwestern course.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast, with a southwestern course.
  • Russian drones are moving through Odesa Oblast in a northwesterly direction and through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine (Kyivska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Kirovohradska), with the threat of ballistic missile attacks.
• Sumy: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.
• Reports indicate that Russian forces shelled the Nikopol region seven times during the day, using artillery and a kamikaze drone. The attacks targeted Nikopol, Chervonogrigorivska, Pokrovska, and Marganetska communities, resulting in damage to a private house, solar panels, and a power line. In the evening, Russian forces struck the Synelnykiv region twice, damaging six private houses and a gas pipeline.

Internal Russian Military Situation

• 51st Army: There is a shortage of personnel on the front lines. Despite reports of successful operations, the number of troops available for assaults is insufficient.
• Sports Relays Order: There are reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting. This has led to criticism and accusations of "idiocy" due to the disconnect from the realities on the ground. The order is seen as an example of the disconnect between the higher command and the situation on the front lines. Commanders are reportedly afraid to voice their concerns about the impracticality of such orders during active combat.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure, specifically focusing on leadership issues, the treatment of veterans, and the inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military, contrasting their agility and innovation with the perceived shortcomings of larger state-controlled entities.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans and their exclusion from political life.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military, further fueling the perception of injustice and inequality within the system.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces, revealing a fragmented and potentially unstable command structure.

Political/Economic Situation

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days. This likely includes military aid to Ukraine, Jordan, and Taiwan. Aid to Israel and Egypt will continue. The order was issued by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The suspension also applies to Ukraine, even for programs already approved by the US government, with exceptions only for Egypt and Israel in the form of necessary emergency assistance. Within 85 days, the US State Department must prepare a report, and after that, Secretary of State Mark Rubio will give recommendations to Trump on which programs should be finally stopped and which should not.
• Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended. Over 1 million people have not yet been re-evaluated.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus. Russian equipment is being removed from the port. The new leader of Syria congratulated Trump on the start of his work as President of the United States.
• Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks on Brovary and Hlevakha were produced in Russia but rely on foreign components. He called for a complete cutoff of these supplies to stop Russian aggression.
• Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: European officials are concerned that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations, with the US potentially brokering a deal unfavorable to Kyiv, leaving Europe to finance reconstruction.
• EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: The EU has imposed sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks against EU countries.
• Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: Poland plans to invite former US President Donald Trump to the Three Seas Initiative summit, a move that could have significant implications for US-European relations.
• Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024, with contributions from nine countries and the European Union.
• Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages. Analysts predict worsening economic conditions in 2025, potentially forcing Russia to choose between continuing the war and maintaining social stability.
• The US State Department has announced a 90-day pause in providing any assistance to foreign states. This includes a review of existing aid programs, including those for Ukraine, but with a possible exemption clause.
• USAID representatives have been instructed to halt all projects related to Ukraine, including support for schools and healthcare.
• A correspondent for "Voice of America," citing Pentagon sources, reports that the State Department's decree does not apply to military aid for Ukraine.
• Donald Trump, in a telephone conversation with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, insisted on acquiring Greenland.
• The US State Department has suspended funding for Ukraine. A few days ago, Trump issued an order to suspend for 90 days all financial programs related to providing assistance to a foreign state until they are reviewed by the Secretary of State. But it was not clear from the document whether this applies to aid programs for Ukraine already adopted under President Biden. According to sources from the media holding Politico, last Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a clarifying order stating that Trump's decree unequivocally applies to Ukraine. Funding for military assistance is suspended even for programs already approved by the US government. Exceptions are made only for Egypt and Israel in the form of necessary emergency assistance. Within 85 days, the US State Department must prepare a report, and after that, Secretary of State Mark Rubio will give recommendations to Trump on which programs should be finally stopped and which should not.
• The Minister of Health of Kamchatka was removed from office due to an outbreak of hepatitis in the oncology dispensary.
• The US Department of the Interior, according to Trump's decree, renamed the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
• The Trump administration will consider using frozen Russian assets to finance the supply of American weapons to Ukraine, said Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg in an interview with Fox News.
• A new report suggests that Russia may be able to continue the war for several more years due to its large stockpiles of old equipment and support from North Korea.
• The statement from the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, about Trump's plans to sign an executive order on an "Iron Dome" for the US indicates a potential shift in US defense strategy.
• Poland's attempts to undermine Germany's economy and its role as a leader of the American lobby in the EU highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics within Europe.
• The new message about the Russian economy working "on steroids" and approaching a crisis reinforces the assessment of economic difficulties in Russia. The report highlights the hidden military financing, potential banking crisis, rising inflation, and labor shortages as contributing factors.
• Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, Maksim Zhorin, suggests lowering the mobilization age in Ukraine but creating appropriate conditions for young people to sign contracts for a specific period, not until the end of martial law. He also proposes financial incentives and clear service terms to attract more young volunteers.
• Sternenko's fund is seeking a lawyer-clerk and a communications manager to work on drone supplies and the development of unmanned technologies.
• Brazilian President Lula da Silva expressed his intention to attend the celebration of the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War in Russia.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on NATO countries to increase defense spending to maintain the Alliance's strength and ensure future security.
• 95 residents of Russia were injured and 13 killed in the past week due to Ukrainian strikes, according to Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik.
• Trump has instructed the Pentagon to present a project for the development and deployment of the "Iron Shield for America" air defense system within 60 days.
• Denmark intends to spend 14.6 billion Danish kroner ($2.05 billion) to strengthen its military presence in the Arctic, including the acquisition of three new Arctic fleet ships, increasing the number of long-range drones from 2 to 4, and launching satellite surveillance systems. This decision comes amid US President Donald Trump's intentions to take control of Greenland.
• Tucker Carlson believes that the Biden administration attempted to assassinate Putin, although he did not provide any details or arguments to support his claim.
• Polish President Duda called for the dismantling of the Nord Stream pipelines, citing the threat they pose to Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia, and other Central European countries.

Information Warfare

• DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, contradicting official Ukrainian reports. They criticize the discrepancy between official statements and the reality on the ground, warning that "lies will destroy us all."
• "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel: A user on the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel warned about a suspicious account, potentially linked to either Russian authorities or the enemy, that may attempt to spread misinformation or gather sensitive information. The account has been active since December and is now escalating its activities.
• The "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel also shared screenshots of a user profile and a group chat, raising concerns about potential threats and information gathering activities. The user profile "Philologist in Ambush" suggests a person with expertise in language and a possible military mindset, while the group chat activity indicates coordination and information sharing.
• The reaction list shows recent activity, indicating active monitoring and engagement within the group. The large number of members and the timing of reactions suggest coordinated activities within a specific timeframe.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure, specifically focusing on leadership issues, the treatment of veterans, and the inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them. This video serves as propaganda for the Russian side, highlighting the demoralization and desperation of Ukrainian forces.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military, contrasting their agility and innovation with the perceived shortcomings of larger state-controlled entities.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans and their exclusion from political life.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military, further fueling the perception of injustice and inequality within the system.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces, revealing a fragmented and potentially unstable command structure.
• Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments, potentially for propaganda or disinformation purposes.
• Ukrainian and Russian Media Reports: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight the discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground, particularly regarding the control of Velyka Novosilka.
• Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
• Disinformation on Social Media: The image of a burning Red Square and other misleading images are being used to spread disinformation and manipulate public perception.
• The message regarding the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz and the alleged hypocrisy of Ukrainian and Polish politicians highlights the ongoing information war and attempts to manipulate historical narratives.
• The message regarding pirates of the Baltic Sea pursuing another vessel under the pretext of suspected sabotage indicates a potential escalation of tensions in the region.
• Former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Viktor Muzhenko, stated that the enemy has seized half of Ukraine's resources, allowing them to fully cover the costs of waging war.
• A video from the "Dva Mayora" Telegram channel depicts a map showing the advancement of Russian forces in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, suggesting conditions for further progress towards Konstantinovka, a crucial logistics hub and fortified area for Ukrainian forces. The channel suggests that Russian actions east of Pokrovsk, aiming to control the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, might confirm this strategic intent. The channel notes that Ukrainian forces are concentrating their most motivated units and strategic reserves in these areas to resist the Russian advance, emphasizing the importance of Konstantinovka as a defensive line before the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
• The channel "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports on the activities of Russian airborne forces, including the use of FPV drones for attacks and supply delivery, tank attacks on enemy strongpoints, sniper operations, and the destruction of a Ukrainian tank and a "Leleka-100" UAV.

Updated Situation

The new messages indicate a further intensification of the conflict, particularly with the increased drone activity and the strategic movements around Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka. The fire in Chernihiv due to the air attack highlights the ongoing danger to civilian areas and infrastructure.

The movement of drones towards Odesa and Poltava Oblasts suggests a widening area of operations and potential new targets. The Russian advances near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, as depicted in the "Dva Mayora" video, indicate a strategic push towards Konstantinovka, a key logistics hub. This could significantly impact Ukrainian defensive capabilities in the region.

The reported activities of Russian airborne forces, including reconnaissance, attacks, and the destruction of enemy equipment, demonstrate their continued operational tempo and effectiveness. The destruction of an Italian "Puma" APC near Hryhorivka, as reported by Colonelcassad, further illustrates the ongoing attrition of Ukrainian military assets.

The political developments, particularly Trump's order to the Pentagon regarding the "Iron Shield for America" and Denmark's intention to strengthen its military presence in the Arctic, add layers of complexity to the international context of the conflict. These actions could have long-term implications for regional security dynamics and the balance of power.

The economic news, including the potential sale of "M.Video-Eldorado" to Promsvyazbank and the reported number of Russian residents injured or killed due to Ukrainian strikes, provides a glimpse into the broader impact of the conflict on Russia's economy and society.

Overall, the situation remains dire for Ukraine, with continued Russian advances and escalating drone warfare. The strategic importance of Konstantinovka and the ongoing battles in the Donetsk region underscore the critical nature of the current phase of the conflict. The international political developments and economic factors add further dimensions to the evolving situation. The destruction of the Italian "Puma" APC near Hryhorivka highlights the ongoing attrition of Ukrainian military assets.

Recommendations

1. Prioritize Air Defense: Given the increasing threat of drone attacks, especially in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, Chernihiv, and Kyiv, it is crucial to enhance and deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect these cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks.
2. Strengthen Drone Countermeasures: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements. Given the new threat to Odesa and Poltava, prioritize the deployment of counter-drone systems to these regions.
3. Address the Situation in Kharkiv and Chernihiv: Provide immediate support to those affected by the fire in Kharkiv and Chernihiv. Repair damaged infrastructure, including the gas pipeline, and provide medical assistance to those suffering from stress reactions. Enhance security measures in the city to protect civilians from further attacks. Address the new explosion reported in Kharkiv and assess the damage. Deploy emergency response teams if necessary and enhance air defense measures in the region.
4. Reinforce Defenses in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk: Prioritize the deployment of reinforcements, including anti-tank weapons, air defense systems, and manpower, to Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk to counter the Russian advances and prevent further encirclements. Given the strategic importance of Konstantinovka, as highlighted in the "Dva Mayora" analysis, Ukrainian forces should focus on fortifying defenses in this area