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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-01-27 23:39:28Z
5 months ago
Previous (2025-01-27 23:09:17Z)

Operational Report: Military Situation in Ukraine - January 27th, 2025, 23:38 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine is increasingly critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making significant advances, especially in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is confirmed under complete Russian control, with fighting ongoing in the central part of the city. The situation in Pokrovsk remains highly precarious, with Russian forces within 10 kilometers and having severed a key railway line. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearly collapsed, with Russian forces making further advances. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating positions and inflicting heavy losses. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with multiple drone attacks reported across various regions, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and others. An air raid alert is active for Kyiv and multiple regions, with reports of enemy UAVs in the vicinity of Kyiv and other cities.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

  • Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control, with video evidence showing the Russian 40th Separate Guards Brigade of the Naval Infantry operating within the settlement and raising their flag. Fighting is ongoing in the central part of the city.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line to the city. Powerful strikes are reported on Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces are reportedly struggling to defend the area, with 48 assault actions reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Severnyi district. A serviceman from the 98th Airborne Division reported significant losses near Chasiv Yar, with five soldiers who had previously extracted him from a minefield being killed in the past four days. He also highlighted issues with obtaining leave, supplies, and inadequate support for wounded soldiers, including a basic prosthetic limb. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian BMP firing at Russian positions south of Chasiv Yar and retreating under fire towards Shevchenko.
  • Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
  • Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 Russian attacks in the area. Russian forces have made further advances in Toretsk.
  • Other locations:
    • Kramatorsk: The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities on the Kramatorsk axis.
    • Zverevo: Fighting continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces.
    • Solone: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
    • Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • Dachne: Russian forces have advanced near Dachne.
    • Kotlyne: Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne.

Luhansk Region

  • Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
  • Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.

Kursk Region

  • The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled. Russian forces report the capture of several settlements and are consolidating their control.
  • Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
  • Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared, with the enemy making careless and unsuccessful counterattacks.
  • In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
  • Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south; fighting is going on near Kurylivka.
  • Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
  • Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.

Kharkiv Region

  • Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue in the region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast and from another approaching from the south. A third strike on Kharkiv was reported, targeting the Kyivskyi district. Ukrainian authorities confirm another strike in the Kyivskyi district, with no reported casualties. A fire broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack. Power and water supply issues are reported in some areas of the city. Three people were injured in the attacks on Kharkiv. The mayor of Kharkiv reported that a Russian attack hit a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire.
  • Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
  • Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.
  • Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack. Another explosion has been reported in Kharkiv.

Other Regions

  • Drone Movements: Drone security is reported in multiple Russian regions and occupied Crimea. New reports of drone attacks in Sumy, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Khmelnytskyi regions. Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine. New reports of drone activity in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions.
    • Kyiv: An air raid alert has been issued for Kyiv. The Kyiv City Military Administration reports that enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city. Four drones are approaching Bucha/Irpin. Two drones are approaching Hostomel/Bucha/Irpin.
    • Cherkasy: Two drones are circling near Cherkasy. Two drones are south of Smila, heading west.
    • Kirovohrad: One drone is circling north of Kropyvnytskyi. Five drones are heading towards/through Oleksandriia.
    • Mykolaiv: Three drones are flying past Bereznehuvate in a northwesterly direction. Three drones are heading towards/through Yelanets. Five drones are flying over Yelanets in a northwesterly direction.
    • Dnipropetrovsk: One drone is near Kryvyi Rih, heading northeast. One drone has flown past Dnipro in a northwesterly direction. Two drones are flying past Oleksandriia in a northwesterly direction.
    • Poltava: One drone is north of Poltava, heading northwest. One drone is flying past Okhtyrka towards Poltava Oblast.
    • Sumy: One drone is circling near Sumy. One drone is flying past Okhtyrka towards Poltava Oblast.
    • Chernihiv: One drone is in the east of Chernihiv Oblast, heading west. One drone is flying from Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
    • Zhytomyr: Two drones are circling east of Korosten.
    • Mozyr (Belarus): A Shahed drone was reportedly shot down in the Mozyr region of Belarus.
  • Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted.
  • Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight. Infrastructure was damaged in the Samarivskyi district, causing a fire.
  • Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged in Sumy and the surrounding region following explosions.
  • Ryazan: There are reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan, with video evidence of a fire.

Geopolitical Developments

  • The US Senate confirmed Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary.
  • The Nasdaq index fell by 3% following the success of the Chinese chatbot DeepSeek. The value of NVidia shares fell by 16.86%, reducing the market capitalization by $589 billion. The total value of private enterprises on the US stock market decreased by more than $1 trillion, according to The Wall Street Journal.
  • US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports and potentially on steel and other goods.
  • Trump also stated his intention to reopen oil production in protected areas of Alaska, claiming it could satisfy Asia's demand.

Other

  • Ukrainian forces are using F-1 hand grenades filled with cornmeal instead of explosives in the Kursk region, according to a video published by a Ukrainian source.
  • In the Gaza Strip, obstacles surrounding an agreement related to an Israeli prisoner named Arbil Yehuda have reportedly been resolved. Qatar's foreign minister announced an agreement where Palestinian resistance will release Arbil by Friday. The Israeli side has also begun implementing an agreement to withdraw troops from the Netzarym axis. Hamas and Islamic Jihad claim that scenes of residents returning to the northern Gaza Strip are evidence of the failure of the occupation's plans to capture the area.
  • The incidence of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) in Russia has increased by 12.9% in a week, leading to the closure of 48 schools and 23 preschools, according to the press service of Rospotrebnadzor.
  • "Al-Hilal" announced the termination of its contract with Neymar. The Brazilian will continue his career at Santos, the football club said.

Updated Situation

The military situation continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making significant advances in the Donetsk region. The fall of Velyka Novosilka is confirmed, and the situation in Pokrovsk is increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse, and Russian forces are making progress in other areas of the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains stalled, with heavy losses. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with widespread attacks across multiple regions and reports of a drone being shot down in Belarus. The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the US taking protectionist economic measures and the situation in the Gaza Strip evolving.

Previous (2025-01-27 23:09:17Z)