Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 27, 2025, 21:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement and capture of Velyka Novosilka are major strategic and symbolic victories for Russian forces. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and inflicting heavy losses. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including new reports of drone threats in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Cherkasy Oblasts. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, while Russian forces continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes. The new reports of multiple drone groups moving through various oblasts indicate a significant escalation in drone activity. Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted and shut down the Ryazan oil refinery, which processes 5% of Russia's oil, using drones.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi to lead the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group in the Donetsk region. Zelensky met with French President Macron to discuss further support for Ukraine, security cooperation, and Ukraine's EU accession process. The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024. Minister of Defense Umierov initiated an internal investigation into the Defense Procurement Agency and suspended its head, Marina Bezrukova. The Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy has denied rumors of a new tax on pensions, clarifying that the introduction of a cumulative pension system will not increase the tax burden on employers or citizens.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:
  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement and captured the city, signifying a major symbolic victory and a significant strategic loss for Ukraine. The city was a major logistics hub for Ukrainian forces.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance, consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
  • The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe, with ongoing battles.
  • Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
  • They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Sievernyi district.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
  • Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • A video from "Voenkor Kotenok" details the intense fighting in Marinka, highlighting the challenges faced by Russian forces in capturing the city.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
• Kramatorsk:
  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• "Rybar" reports on the confusion surrounding the control of Novoyehorivka, highlighting discrepancies between Russian and Ukrainian maps and the renaming of settlements.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske, with Russian forces approaching Mala Loknia and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
• Western officials and South Korean intelligence report significant North Korean casualties in the region.
• Reports of North Korean soldiers killing Russian marines and fleeing.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
• In the past day alone, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed more than 190 militants, 3 tanks, 3 armored personnel carriers, 5 armored vehicles, an M777 howitzer, 2 mortars, an electronic warfare station, 6 UAV control points and a warehouse of ammunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers who were advancing on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck transporting Ukrainian militants to the contact line in the Kursk region.
• "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" Telegram channel reports the destruction of a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region by a Russian FPV drone called "Knyaz Vandal Novgorodskiy".

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:
  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • Explosions reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:
  • Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west.
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
  • All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
  • Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
  • Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down, with no reported casualties.
  • Kherson Oblast: The region is under threat of attack drones.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: A drone is reported to have flown over some areas of Mykolaiv towards the former Snihurivka district. Another drone is heading towards/through Voznesensk.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are reported to be circling in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast. Another drone is moving from Kirovohrad Oblast towards Smila.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Two drones are reported in the Lozova area, moving into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are moving from Kharkiv Oblast into Poltava Oblast. Another drone is reported east of Poltava, with a northern course. Two drones are reported in the Izium area. Two drones are reported north of Balakliia, with a western course.
  • Sumy Oblast: Ten drones are reported to be flying over Shostka, with a western course.
• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine (Kyivska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Kirovohradska), with the threat of ballistic missile attacks. Air raid alerts have also been issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to the threat of drone attacks.
• Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with two X-59/69 missiles and 61 drones. Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down two X-59/69 guided missiles, 46 Shahed drones, and other types of drones in various regions. 15 enemy drones were lost without negative consequences.
• Ryazan oil refinery has suspended operations following a Ukrainian drone attack. The refinery processes nearly 5% of Russia's oil. The attack caused fires and damaged equipment, including a railway loading rack and a hydro-treatment unit.

Internal Russian Military Situation

• 51st Army: There is a shortage of personnel on the front lines. Despite reports of successful operations, the number of troops available for assaults is insufficient.
• Sports Relays Order: There are reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting. This has led to criticism and accusations of "idiocy" due to the disconnect from the realities on the ground.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans.
  • A video from Voenkor Kotenok shows Russian Special Forces conducting an assault on a Ukrainian stronghold in winter conditions.
• 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade: Reports indicate that relatives of soldiers from the 55th Independent Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are protesting the transfer of their loved ones to the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade.
• "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" Telegram channel is actively seeking donations to purchase thermal imagers for Russian troops on the front lines.

Political/Economic Situation

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days. This likely includes military aid to Ukraine, Jordan, and Taiwan. Aid to Israel and Egypt will continue. The order was issued by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended. Over 1 million people have not yet been re-evaluated.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus. Russian equipment is being removed from the port.
• Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks on Brovary and Hlevakha were produced in Russia but rely on foreign components.
• Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: European officials are concerned that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations, with the US potentially brokering a deal unfavorable to Kyiv.
• EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: The EU has imposed sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks against EU countries.
• Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: Poland plans to invite former US President Donald Trump to the Three Seas Initiative summit.
• Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.
• Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages.
• The US State Department has announced a 90-day pause in providing any assistance to foreign states.
• USAID representatives have been instructed to halt all projects related to Ukraine, including support for schools and healthcare.
• Donald Trump, in a telephone conversation with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, insisted on acquiring Greenland.
• The US State Department has suspended funding for Ukraine.
• The Minister of Health of Kamchatka was removed from office due to an outbreak of hepatitis in the oncology dispensary.
• The US Department of the Interior, according to Trump's decree, renamed the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
• The Trump administration will consider using frozen Russian assets to finance the supply of American weapons to Ukraine.
• Poland's attempts to undermine Germany's economy and its role as a leader of the American lobby in the EU highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics within Europe.
• Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, Maksim Zhorin, suggests lowering the mobilization age in Ukraine but creating appropriate conditions for young people to sign contracts for a specific period.
• Brazilian President Lula da Silva expressed his intention to attend the celebration of the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War in Russia.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on NATO countries to increase defense spending.
• President Zelensky expressed that security guarantees similar to those of Israel, including air defense, funding, and technology, would be suitable for Ukraine.
• Zelensky also mentioned a conversation with Trump regarding the Budapest Memorandum.
• Great Britain has imposed new sanctions on Belarus following Lukashenko's "victory" in the elections.
• According to the head of the Polish Foreign Ministry, Radosław Sikorski, Hungary decided to lift its veto on the extension of sanctions due to a statement by Trump, who clearly called Vladimir Putin an aggressor and threatened sanctions against Russia.
• Zelensky believes Trump's tactics for ending the war are appealing.
• Zelensky stated that if Russia had occupied Kyiv, Ukraine would have lost the war.
• Israel-Ukraine Relations: The Israeli ambassador to Ukraine stated that Israel has not made a decision to transfer captured Russian weapons to Ukraine.
• Military Service in Israel: The Israeli ambassador to Ukraine emphasized that in Israel, there is no exception for the children of officials or ministers when it comes to military service.
• Poland's Stance on Nord Stream: Polish President Andrzej Duda has called for the dismantling of the Nord Stream pipelines and stated that gas supplies from Russia should never be resumed.
• Tucker Carlson's View on Nord Stream: American journalist Tucker Carlson believes that the US sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines will lead to the collapse of the EU and NATO.
• Andrey Makarevich has stated that he no longer supports providing weapons to Ukraine.

Information Warfare

• DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, contradicting official Ukrainian reports.
• "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel: A user on the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel warned about a suspicious account, potentially linked to either Russian authorities or the enemy, that may attempt to spread misinformation or gather sensitive information.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine has further deteriorated, with significant Russian advances in the Donetsk region and the confirmed capture of Velyka Novosilka. The escalation of drone warfare, with a massive overnight attack involving 61 drones and new reports of drone movements across multiple regions, poses a significant threat to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure. Ukrainian air defenses have managed to shoot down a significant number of drones, but the sheer volume and widespread nature of the attacks are concerning.

The new reports of drone movements towards Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, the confirmed drone attack in Kharkiv, drone activity in the northwestern part of Kyiv Oblast, and the threat of attack drones in Chernihiv Oblast indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the drone conflict. The new report of a drone heading towards Starokostiantyniv is particularly concerning, given the presence of a major Ukrainian airbase in that area. The use of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast and the deployment of electronic warfare equipment to the front lines indicate continued Russian military activity and technological advancements.

The new report of a Ukrainian drone attack on Ryazan, targeting an oil refinery, highlights the continued vulnerability of Russian infrastructure. The new report of 15 Ukrainian drones shot down over Russian territory indicates the effectiveness of Russian air defenses but also highlights the scale of the drone threat. The new information about the naval situation in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas indicates a significant Russian naval presence, particularly in the Mediterranean, with a substantial number of Kalibr missiles ready to be launched.

The new reports of Russian forces destroying two Ukrainian naval drones approaching Crimea and the main bunch of Ukrainian naval drones waiting for Russian helicopters highlight the ongoing naval conflict in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Air Force's report of Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeast axis and the threat of air attacks on front-line regions indicate a potential escalation in air operations. The new report of guided aerial bombs being launched on Sumy Oblast indicates a potential escalation in air operations.

The new video evidence showing residents of Makhnovka, in the Kursk region, discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers adds a new dimension to the conflict in the region. The new report of a Russian strike on a power substation in Dnipropetrovsk highlights the ongoing targeting of critical infrastructure. The new reports of drone movements in Kirovohrad Oblast and towards Mykolaiv indicate a potential expansion of the drone conflict to these regions. The multiple reports of new drone groups entering Ukrainian airspace from various directions, including Sumy, Kherson, and Belgorod, indicate a significant escalation in Russian drone activity.

The geopolitical developments, including the US aid suspension, President Trump's statements, the call from the Chinese embassy for the US to disclose information on its biolabs, and the Saudi-Russian arms deal further complicate the situation for Ukraine. The video evidence of Russian forces storming Ukrainian positions near Belohorivka, destroying a Ukrainian BMP-2 near Zarichne, and discovering advanced, hard-to-detect mines near Vuhledar highlights the intensity of the fighting, continued Russian advances, and the evolving tactics being employed. The footage of the Orlan-10 UAV in operation underscores the continued importance of reconnaissance in Russian military operations.

The new video evidence of a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region demonstrates the ongoing threat to Ukrainian armor. The new reports of Russian paratroopers using BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers and UAV units using FPV drones in Chasiv Yar indicate the continued intensity of the fighting in that area. The forced mobilization video from Ukraine suggests internal issues with recruitment and public support. The new report of a Russian drone attack on Sumy highlights the ongoing threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

The analysis from The Times outlining four potential scenarios for the end of the war underscores the uncertainty and the possibility of a protracted conflict. The new video evidence of Russian artillerymen targeting Ukrainian forces near the Sukhi Yaly River demonstrates the continued use of artillery in the conflict. The new statement from Tsikhanouskaya about potential regime change in Belarus adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical situation. The new measures imposed by Trump against Colombia, including tariffs and travel bans, indicate a significant escalation in tensions between the two countries.

Andrey Makarevich's statement that he no longer supports providing weapons to Ukraine indicates a potential shift in public opinion among some Russian cultural figures. The Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy's denial of a new tax on pensions and clarification of the cumulative pension system aims to address public concerns and prevent the spread of misinformation. The report from Voenkor Kotenok about the intense fighting in Marinka highlights the brutal nature of the urban warfare in the Donetsk region. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's report of 148 combat clashes, 20 air strikes, over 820 kamikaze drone strikes, and over 4,000 shellings indicates a significant escalation in the intensity of the fighting. The report of a drone approaching the Inhulskyi bridge in Mykolaiv indicates a potential threat to critical infrastructure. The document from Butusov Plus regarding defective F-1 grenades raises concerns about the quality and reliability of Ukrainian military equipment. Rybar's analysis of the confusion surrounding the control of Novoyehorivka highlights the challenges of information warfare and the importance of accurate mapping and reporting. The Ukrainian Air Force's report of a drone threat to Kyiv Oblast from Cherkasy Oblast indicates the continued vulnerability of the capital region to drone attacks. Alex Parker Returns' sharing of an image related to transgender individuals in Moscow, while seemingly unrelated to military operations, could be interpreted as an attempt to stoke social tensions or spread disinformation. Colonelcassad's analysis of the situation on the Konstantinovka and Kurakhovske directions, including maps showing areas of control and fortifications, provides valuable insight into the current state of the front lines.

The image shared by Alex Parker Returns showing a chat conversation about Denmark's response to a hypothetical US annexation of Greenland touches on geopolitical sensitivities and highlights the limitations of AI in understanding complex real-world scenarios. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' statement on the "elections" in Belarus underscores the lack of democratic processes in that country. Voenkor Kotenok's quote about the losses of armored vehicles and artillery systems during the conflict highlights the significant attrition of military equipment. Colonelcassad's report and satellite images of Russian equipment being removed from the port of Tartus in Syria suggest a potential shift in Russia's military presence in that country. The Kyiv City Military Administration's directive to develop algorithms for moving abandoned and damaged vehicles indicates efforts to address logistical challenges in the capital. President Zelensky's meeting with French President Macron highlights the ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure support for Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration's video, which is identical to the one shared by Zelensky and the Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, underscores the importance of this meeting for regional security.

The report of an explosion in Kharkiv and the Ukrainian Air Force's report of multiple drone groups moving through Poltava Oblast in a western direction indicate continued attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The message from "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" about a Ukrainian "photoshop attack" in the Kursk region and the response from Russian soldiers highlights the ongoing information warfare between the two sides. The TASS report of an explosion in Kharkiv confirms the earlier report from "Suspilne". Sternenko's message about the purchase of 300 drones for the Ukrainian military, thanks to donations, demonstrates the continued reliance on crowdfunding and volunteer support for the war effort. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' statement on the escalation of military actions in the Congo highlights the country's engagement in international affairs beyond its borders. The report from RBC-Ukraine about Ukrainian air defenses being activated in Kyiv Oblast due to enemy drones underscores the continued threat to the capital region. The TASS report of Russians returning to Russia from Israel suggests a potential shift in migration patterns due to the conflict. Colonelcassad's images and report about attempts to smuggle people into Europe using trains highlight the ongoing challenges of illegal migration and border security.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly critical, given the reported 77 assault actions. Address the threat to the left flank of the Pokrovsk sector posed by the Russian assault on Kotlyno.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: Focus on conducting rearguard actions in the surrounding areas to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure, such as the airbase near Starokostiantyniv.
4. Improve Air Defenses: Strengthen air defense systems across the country, with a focus on protecting major cities, critical infrastructure, and areas experiencing increased drone activity. The recent activation of air defenses in Kyiv Oblast due to drone threats underscores the need for enhanced air defense capabilities in the capital region.
5. Secure Supply Lines: Given the importance of logistics in the conflict, ensure the security of key supply lines, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russian advances near Pokrovsk and the severing of the penultimate railway line to the city highlight the vulnerability of Ukrainian supply routes.
6. Address Equipment Shortages: Given the reported losses of armored vehicles and artillery systems, prioritize the procurement and deployment of new equipment, potentially through increased domestic production and international assistance. The successful targeting of the Ryazan oil refinery demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets deep inside Russia. Leverage this capability to further degrade Russian military infrastructure and logistics.
7. Counter Information Warfare: Develop and implement strategies to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda, particularly in the Kursk region, where both sides are engaged in intense information warfare. The confusion surrounding the control of Novoyehorivka, as highlighted by Rybar, underscores the need for accurate and timely information dissemination.
8. Enhance Intelligence Capabilities: Improve intelligence gathering and analysis to better understand Russian troop movements, equipment deployments, and strategic intentions. The satellite images of the port of Tartus and the analysis provided by Colonelcassad demonstrate the value of such intelligence in assessing the situation.
9. Strengthen International Partnerships: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure military, financial, and diplomatic support. President Zelensky's meeting with French President Macron underscores the importance of maintaining strong alliances.
10. Address Internal Issues: Investigate and address the issues of defective equipment, such as the F-1 grenades mentioned by Butusov Plus, and ensure that Ukrainian troops are properly equipped and supplied. The suspension of the head of the Defense Procurement Agency indicates a willingness to tackle corruption and inefficiency within the defense sector.
11. Monitor Border Security: Given the increased security measures being implemented by Ukrainian authorities, as evidenced by the inspection of trains by SBU personnel, continue to monitor and strengthen border security to prevent illegal crossings and the movement of illicit goods.
12. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The continued Russian advances, the intensification of drone warfare, and the potential for increased naval activity in the Black Sea suggest a high risk of further escalation. Prepare contingency plans for various scenarios, including a potential expansion of the conflict to new regions.
13. Explore Diplomatic Solutions: While maintaining a strong military posture, continue to explore potential diplomatic solutions to the conflict. The concerns expressed by European officials about being excluded from peace negotiations highlight the need for Ukraine to actively engage in diplomatic efforts.
14. Address Humanitarian Concerns: The ongoing fighting and displacement of civilians, as evidenced by the protests of refugees from the Kursk region, necessitate a continued focus on addressing humanitarian needs and providing support to those affected by the conflict.
15. Maintain Public Morale: Given the challenging military situation and the potential for a protracted conflict, it is crucial to maintain public morale and support for the war effort. The Ukrainian government should continue to communicate transparently with the public about the situation on the ground and the efforts being made to defend the country.
16. Monitor Russian Internal Situation: Keep a close watch on the internal situation in Russia, including potential social instability due to the marginalization of returning veterans, as mentioned by Voenkor Kotenok. Any signs of internal unrest in Russia could have significant implications for the course of the conflict.
17. Adapt to Evolving Tactics: The increasing use of drones by both sides, as well as the reported involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, highlights the need for Ukrainian forces to adapt to evolving tactics and strategies employed by the enemy.
18. Secure Critical Infrastructure: Given the repeated targeting of critical infrastructure, such as the power substation in Dnipropetrovsk and the oil refinery in Ryazan, prioritize the protection of key facilities, including energy infrastructure, transportation hubs, and communication networks.
19. Monitor Belarus: Keep a close watch on developments in Belarus, particularly in light of President Lukashenko's claims of a landslide victory in the recent elections and the potential deployment of the "Орешник" system. Any changes in Belarus's posture could have significant implications for Ukraine's security.
20. Address Corruption: The investigation into the Defense Procurement Agency and the suspension of its head, Marina Bezrukova, demonstrate a commitment to addressing corruption. Continue these efforts to ensure that resources are used efficiently and effectively.
21. Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Given the assessment from The Times outlining four potential scenarios for the end of the war, including a protracted conflict, Ukraine must prepare for a potentially long-term struggle. This includes ensuring sustainable military production, maintaining international support, and addressing the social and economic impacts of a prolonged war.
22. Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on geopolitical developments, such as the potential shift in US policy under a new administration, as mentioned in the reports about Europe preparing for a "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance. Any changes in the international landscape could have significant implications for Ukraine's security and the course of the conflict.
23. Address Social Issues: The concerns raised about the treatment of returning veterans in Russia and the potential for social instability highlight the need to address social issues related to the conflict. Ensure that Ukrainian veterans receive adequate support and reintegration assistance upon their return.
24. Counter Disinformation: Given the prevalence of disinformation and propaganda, as evidenced by the "photoshop attack" reported by "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny," continue to counter false narratives and provide accurate information to the public.
25. Engage in Diplomatic Efforts: The meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Macron underscores the importance of continued diplomatic engagement. Maintain open channels of communication with allies and seek opportunities for dialogue to address the conflict and its broader implications.
26. Enhance Cyber Security: Given the reported cyberattacks attributed to Russian citizens, continue to enhance cyber security measures to protect critical infrastructure, government institutions, and military networks from potential attacks.
27. Monitor Population Movements: The report of Russians returning to Russia from Israel, as mentioned by the Israeli ambassador, highlights the need to monitor population movements and assess their potential impact on the conflict and regional stability.
28. Address Economic Challenges: The rising inflation and economic difficulties in Russia, as well as the potential impact of sanctions, underscore the need for Ukraine to address its own economic challenges. Implement measures to stabilize the economy, support key industries, and mitigate the economic fallout of the conflict.
29. Maintain Transparency: The directive from the Kyiv City Military Administration to develop transparent algorithms for moving abandoned and damaged vehicles demonstrates a commitment to transparency and accountability. Continue these efforts to maintain public trust and ensure the efficient use of resources.
30. Monitor Sanctions Impact: Given the reported impact of sanctions on Russia and the discussions within the EU about potentially easing sanctions on Syria, closely monitor the effectiveness of sanctions and their impact on the conflict. Adapt sanctions strategies as needed to maximize their impact on Russia's ability to wage war.
31. Prepare for Potential Negotiations: While maintaining a strong military posture, remain open to potential negotiations to end the conflict. The concerns expressed by European officials about being excluded from peace talks highlight the need for Ukraine to actively engage in diplomatic efforts and shape the parameters of any future negotiations.
32. Address Regional Security: The new dimension added to the conflict by the reported fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, as evidenced by the video of residents of Makhnovka, necessitates a reassessment of regional security. Strengthen defenses in the Kursk region and enhance intelligence gathering to monitor and counter the North Korean presence.
33. Protect Critical Infrastructure: The Russian strike on a power substation in Dnipropetrovsk underscores the vulnerability of critical infrastructure. Prioritize the protection of such facilities and develop contingency plans for maintaining essential services in the event of further attacks.
34. Expand Counter-Drone Operations: The reported drone movements in Kirovohrad Oblast and towards Mykolaiv indicate a potential expansion of the drone conflict. Enhance counter-drone capabilities in these regions and develop strategies to intercept and neutralize enemy drones.
35. Address Mobilization Challenges: The video suggesting forced mobilization in Ukraine highlights potential challenges with recruitment and public support. Address these issues by implementing transparent and fair mobilization policies, providing adequate training and equipment to new recruits, and addressing public concerns about the conduct of the war.
36. Monitor Russian Military Developments: The footage of the Orlan-10 UAV in operation and the reports of Russian paratroopers using BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers and UAV units using FPV drones in Chasiv Yar underscore the need to closely monitor Russian military developments. Adapt tactics and strategies accordingly to counter new threats and maintain a competitive edge on the battlefield.
37. Enhance Naval Defenses: The reports of Russian naval activity in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas, including the presence of a substantial number of Kalibr missiles, highlight the need for Ukraine to enhance its naval defenses. Develop capabilities to counter Russian naval threats and protect Ukrainian coastal areas and maritime interests.
38. Maintain Information Security: The warning from the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel about a suspicious account potentially linked to Russian authorities or the enemy underscores the importance of maintaining information security. Implement measures to protect sensitive information, counter disinformation, and prevent enemy infiltration of communication networks.
39. Leverage International Support: The continued support from international partners, as evidenced by the meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Macron, provides an opportunity for Ukraine to leverage this support for maximum impact. Coordinate with allies to ensure that military, financial, and diplomatic assistance is aligned with Ukraine's strategic priorities and effectively contributes to the war effort.
40. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the assessment from The Times outlining four potential scenarios for the end of the war, including a protracted conflict, Ukraine must prepare for a potentially long-term struggle. This includes ensuring sustainable military production, maintaining international support, and addressing the social and economic impacts of a prolonged war.
41. Adapt to Evolving Tactics: The increasing use of drones by both sides, as well as the reported involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, highlights the need for Ukrainian forces to adapt to evolving tactics and strategies employed by the enemy. Continuously assess the battlefield situation and adjust tactics accordingly to maintain a competitive edge.
42. Monitor Belarus: Keep a close watch on developments in Belarus, particularly in light of President Lukashenko's claims of a landslide victory in the recent elections and the potential deployment of the "Орешник" system. Any changes in Belarus's posture could have significant implications for Ukraine's security.
43. Address Corruption: The investigation into the Defense Procurement Agency and the suspension of its head, Marina Bezrukova, demonstrate a commitment to addressing corruption. Continue these efforts to ensure that resources are used efficiently and effectively.
44. Secure Critical Infrastructure: Given the repeated targeting of critical infrastructure, such as the power substation in Dnipropetrovsk and the oil refinery in Ryazan, prioritize the protection of key facilities, including energy infrastructure,