Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 27, 2025, 18:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement and capture of Velyka Novosilka are major strategic and symbolic victories for Russian forces. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and inflicting heavy losses. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, while Russian forces continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi to lead the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group in the Donetsk region, while retaining his role as Commander of the Land Forces. This strategic move aims to strengthen the command structure in the face of intense fighting. Andriy Hnatov, who previously led the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group, will be appointed as Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces under Anatoliy Barhylevych. The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:
  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement and captured the city, signifying a major symbolic victory and a significant strategic loss for Ukraine. The city was a major logistics hub for Ukrainian forces.
  • Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River.
  • Video evidence from multiple sources confirms the Russian advance and control over the settlement.
  • Russian forces have raised their flag in Velyka Novosilka over the city hospital, signifying a major symbolic victory. The capture of the city is nearing completion, marking a significant strategic loss for Ukraine. Remnants of Ukrainian forces have retreated to the northwest outskirts.
  • A video from the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group highlights the ongoing battle for Velyka Novosilka, emphasizing the importance of holding the settlement.
  • A video from the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group shows a close combat situation, where Ukrainian soldiers are targeting a Russian soldier in a wooded area.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance, consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
  • The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe, with ongoing battles.
  • Near Baranivka, Russian assault groups are attacking enemy positions towards Tarasivka.
  • Fighting also continues near Zelene Pole and Kalynove.
  • Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting intensifying near Udachne.
  • Reports suggest that the loss of Udachne would significantly weaken Ukrainian defenses in the area.
  • One woman was killed due to a Russian attack on the city of Pokrovsk.
  • Four people were injured in Russian shelling of Konstantinivka.
  • Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
  • They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Sievernyi district.
  • Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
  • The basements and workshops of the refractory plant have been completely cleared.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators targeting Russian positions near Chasiv Yar.
  • The press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade reports that the situation in Chasiv Yar is difficult, with Russian forces deploying units of "Akhmat" and former "Wagner" fighters to reinforce their assault groups.
  • A photo shows a message from the press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade, reporting that former "Wagner" fighters are now part of the "Akhmat" unit and are participating in the assault on Chasiv Yar.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
  • Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
  • Russian forces are conducting assault operations in the Kurakhove direction, with the support of the "Southern" troop grouping.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces capturing Russian soldiers in Toretsk.
  • Russian forces are advancing in Toretsk, as evidenced by reports from the "Z-committee".
• Kramatorsk:
  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
• Other Locations:
  • Fighting continues in Zverevo, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces.
  • Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces.
  • Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka, taking control of a forest area between the settlements and continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
• In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske, with Russian forces approaching Mala Loknia and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
• Western officials and South Korean intelligence report significant North Korean casualties in the region.
• Reports of North Korean soldiers killing Russian marines and fleeing.
• Reports of an American mercenary known as "Doctor Death" being captured by Russian forces.
• According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, Russian forces in the Kursk direction have neutralized over 180 Ukrainian troops, a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, four armored fighting vehicles, ten motor vehicles, a self-propelled artillery unit, two towed howitzers, a mortar, three electronic warfare stations, two UAV control points, and an ammunition depot.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya.
• New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
• Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
• According to the ministry, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction since the beginning of hostilities have reached 54,460 people. Up to 320 tanks were destroyed.
• In the past day alone, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed more than 190 militants, 3 tanks, 3 armored personnel carriers, 5 armored vehicles, an M777 howitzer, 2 mortars, an electronic warfare station, 6 UAV control points and a warehouse of ammunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers who were advancing on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.
• In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck transporting Ukrainian militants to the contact line in the Kursk region. The driver reportedly managed to detect the drone and attempted to escape, but the vehicle and personnel were destroyed.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:
  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • One drone is flying from the Kharkiv region towards Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
  • Explosions reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions.
• Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk, destroying approximately 10 units of enemy equipment and inflicting casualties.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:
  • Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west.
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
  • All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
  • Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
  • New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region, with a southern course.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
  • One drone from the Ternopil region is heading towards Ivano-Frankivsk.
  • Two drones from the Khmelnytskyi region have moved into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • One drone from the Vinnytsia region is moving into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • Four drones from the Kirovohrad region are heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
  • One drone is north of Kropyvnytskyi, with a western course.
  • One drone is flying past Dolynska with a western course.
  • One drone is circling near Pavlohrad.
  • Three drones are in the Cherkasy area, with a southwestern course.
  • Three new drones are in the east of the Chernihiv region, with a southwestern course.
  • Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down, with no reported casualties.
  • 5 drones are flying over the Berislav district towards Bereznegovatoe.
  • 1 drone flew over Pokrov in a northerly direction.
  • 2 drones are flying over Pavlograd in a northerly direction.
  • 6 drones are in the Kremenchug region, heading northwest.
  • 2 drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • 1 drone is moving from the Kharkiv region to the Dnepropetrovsk region, and 1 to the Poltava region.
  • 3 drones are moving from the Sumy region to the Poltava region.
  • Groups of drones are moving along the border of the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the east of the Mykolaiv region, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the north of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Kharkiv region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the south and center of the Poltava region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Poltava region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the north of the Sumy region, heading south.
  • Drones are in the east of the Cherkasy region, heading north.
  • Drones are on the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading north.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the Nikopol area, heading towards Kryvyi Rih.
  • Several groups of attack UAVs are moving through the Sumy region towards the Chernihiv region.
  • Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
• New Drone Movements:
  • Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast. New groups of drones are reported in Chernihiv and Sumy regions, with a southwesterly and northwesterly course.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia with a southwestern course. Another drone is heading towards or flying through Kolomyia.
  • Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a western course. Three more drones are moving from Kirovohrad Oblast into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district, with a western course. One drone is south of Kropyvnytskyi, with a western course.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Another drone is in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, with a western course.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area, with a southern course. Two more drones are north of Chernihiv, with a western course. One drone is moving from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast. Another drone is east of Chernihiv, heading towards Nizhyn.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts, with a western course.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, with a western/northwestern course.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a western/northwestern course.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with a western course.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, with a western/southwestern course.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast, with a southwestern course.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast, with a southwestern course.
  • Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine (Kyivska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Kirovohradska), with the threat of ballistic missile attacks.
• Sumy: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.
• Reports indicate that Russian forces shelled the Nikopol region seven times during the day, using artillery and a kamikaze drone. The attacks targeted Nikopol, Chervonogrigorivska, Pokrovska, and Marganetska communities, resulting in damage to a private house, solar panels, and a power line. In the evening, Russian forces struck the Synelnykiv region twice, damaging six private houses and a gas pipeline.
• Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with two X-59/69 missiles and 61 drones. Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down two X-59/69 guided missiles, 46 Shahed drones, and other types of drones in various regions. 15 enemy drones were lost without negative consequences.
• Video evidence from the 46th Airmobile Brigade shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, successfully identifying and engaging enemy soldiers. The use of thermal imaging and precision targeting is highlighted.
• The 46th Airmobile Brigade reports successful drone operations against Russian troops, highlighting the use of thermal imaging and precise targeting. The video shows two Russian soldiers being eliminated by FPV drones.

Internal Russian Military Situation

• 51st Army: There is a shortage of personnel on the front lines. Despite reports of successful operations, the number of troops available for assaults is insufficient.
• Sports Relays Order: There are reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting. This has led to criticism and accusations of "idiocy" due to the disconnect from the realities on the ground. The order is seen as an example of the disconnect between the higher command and the situation on the front lines. Commanders are reportedly afraid to voice their concerns about the impracticality of such orders during active combat.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure, specifically focusing on leadership issues, the treatment of veterans, and the inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military, contrasting their agility and innovation with the perceived shortcomings of larger state-controlled entities.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans and their exclusion from political life.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military, further fueling the perception of injustice and inequality within the system.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces, revealing a fragmented and potentially unstable command structure.
  • A video from Voenkor Kotenok shows Russian Special Forces conducting an assault on a Ukrainian stronghold in winter conditions. The footage includes captured Ukrainian soldiers and highlights the use of thermal imaging.
• 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade: Reports indicate that relatives of soldiers from the 55th Independent Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are protesting the transfer of their loved ones to the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade. They claim that the 114th Brigade has significant issues, including poor relations between soldiers and commanders, hazing, and heavy losses. They also allege that soldiers are being sent on suicidal missions without proper coordination or support.

Political/Economic Situation

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days. This likely includes military aid to Ukraine, Jordan, and Taiwan. Aid to Israel and Egypt will continue. The order was issued by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended. Over 1 million people have not yet been re-evaluated.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus. Russian equipment is being removed from the port. The new leader of Syria congratulated Trump on the start of his work as President of the United States.
• Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks on Brovary and Hlevakha were produced in Russia but rely on foreign components. He called for a complete cutoff of these supplies to stop Russian aggression.
• Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: European officials are concerned that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations, with the US potentially brokering a deal unfavorable to Kyiv, leaving Europe to finance reconstruction.
• EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: The EU has imposed sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks against EU countries.
• Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: Poland plans to invite former US President Donald Trump to the Three Seas Initiative summit, a move that could have significant implications for US-European relations.
• Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024, with contributions from nine countries and the European Union.
• Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages. Analysts predict worsening economic conditions in 2025, potentially forcing Russia to choose between continuing the war and maintaining social stability.
• The US State Department has announced a 90-day pause in providing any assistance to foreign states. This includes a review of existing aid programs, including those for Ukraine, but with a possible exemption clause.
• USAID representatives have been instructed to halt all projects related to Ukraine, including support for schools and healthcare.
• A correspondent for "Voice of America," citing Pentagon sources, reports that the State Department's decree does not apply to military aid for Ukraine.
• Donald Trump, in a telephone conversation with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, insisted on acquiring Greenland.
• The US State Department has suspended funding for Ukraine. A few days ago, Trump issued an order to suspend for 90 days all financial programs related to providing assistance to a foreign state until they are reviewed by the Secretary of State. But it was not clear from the document whether this applies to aid programs for Ukraine already adopted under President Biden. According to sources from the media holding Politico, last Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a clarifying order stating that Trump's decree unequivocally applies to Ukraine. Funding for military assistance is suspended even for programs already approved by the US government. Exceptions are made only for Egypt and Israel in the form of necessary emergency assistance. Within 85 days, the US State Department must prepare a report, and after that, Secretary of State Mark Rubio will give recommendations to Trump on which programs should be finally stopped and which should not.
• The Minister of Health of Kamchatka was removed from office due to an outbreak of hepatitis in the oncology dispensary.
• The US Department of the Interior, according to Trump's decree, renamed the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
• The Trump administration will consider using frozen Russian assets to finance the supply of American weapons to Ukraine, said Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg in an interview with Fox News.
• A new report suggests that Russia may be able to continue the war for several more years due to its large stockpiles of old equipment and support from North Korea.
• The statement from the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, about Trump's plans to sign an executive order on an "Iron Dome" for the US indicates a potential shift in US defense strategy.
• Poland's attempts to undermine Germany's economy and its role as a leader of the American lobby in the EU highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics within Europe.
• The new message about the Russian economy working "on steroids" and approaching a crisis reinforces the assessment of economic difficulties in Russia. The report highlights the hidden military financing, potential banking crisis, rising inflation, and labor shortages as contributing factors.
• Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, Maksim Zhorin, suggests lowering the mobilization age in Ukraine but creating appropriate conditions for young people to sign contracts for a specific period, not until the end of martial law. He also proposes financial incentives and clear service terms to attract more young volunteers.
• Sternenko's fund is seeking a lawyer-clerk and a communications manager to work on drone supplies and the development of unmanned technologies.
• Brazilian President Lula da Silva expressed his intention to attend the celebration of the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War in Russia.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on NATO countries to increase defense spending to maintain the Alliance's strength and ensure future security.
• President Zelensky expressed that security guarantees similar to those of Israel, including air defense, funding, and technology, would be suitable for Ukraine.
• Zelensky also mentioned a conversation with Trump regarding the Budapest Memorandum, stating that Ukraine had essentially traded its nuclear weapons for war.
• Forbes reports on the disintegration of the 157th Mechanized Brigade, citing lack of training and experience as contributing factors. The report also mentions similar issues in other newly formed brigades.
• Great Britain has imposed new sanctions on Belarus following Lukashenko's "victory" in the elections. The sanctions target officials responsible for human rights violations and Belarusian defense companies supporting Russia's war in Ukraine.
• According to the head of the Polish Foreign Ministry, Radosław Sikorski, Hungary decided to lift its veto on the extension of sanctions due to a statement by Trump, who clearly called Vladimir Putin an aggressor and threatened sanctions against Russia.

Information Warfare

• DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, contradicting official Ukrainian reports. They criticize the discrepancy between official statements and the reality on the ground, warning that "lies will destroy us all."
• "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel: A user on the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel warned about a suspicious account, potentially linked to either Russian authorities or the enemy, that may attempt to spread misinformation or gather sensitive information. The account has been active since December and is now escalating its activities.
• The "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel also shared screenshots of a user profile and a group chat, raising concerns about potential threats and information gathering activities. The user profile "Philologist in Ambush" suggests a person with expertise in language and a possible military mindset, while the group chat activity indicates coordination and information sharing.
• The reaction list shows recent activity, indicating active monitoring and engagement within the group. The large number of members and the timing of reactions suggest coordinated activities within a specific timeframe.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure, specifically focusing on leadership issues, the treatment of veterans, and the inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them. This video serves as propaganda for the Russian side, highlighting the demoralization and desperation of Ukrainian forces.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military, contrasting their agility and innovation with the perceived shortcomings of larger state-controlled entities.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans and their exclusion from political life.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military, further fueling the perception of injustice and inequality within the system.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces, revealing a fragmented and potentially unstable command structure.
• Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments, potentially for propaganda or disinformation purposes.
• Ukrainian and Russian Media Reports: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight the discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground, particularly regarding the control of Velyka Novosilka.
• Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
• Disinformation on Social Media: The image of a burning Red Square and other misleading images are being used to spread disinformation and manipulate public perception.
• The message regarding the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz and the alleged hypocrisy of Ukrainian and Polish politicians highlights the ongoing information war and attempts to manipulate historical narratives.
• The message regarding pirates of the Baltic Sea pursuing another vessel under the pretext of suspected sabotage indicates a potential escalation of tensions in the region.
• Former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Viktor Muzhenko, stated that the enemy has seized half of Ukraine's resources, allowing them to fully cover the costs of waging war.
• A video from the "Operativny ZSU" Telegram channel features an intercepted call of a resident from the Bryansk region criticizing Putin for the war in Ukraine.
• The 46th Airmobile Brigade's video of drone operations against Russian troops can be seen as a form of information warfare, showcasing Ukrainian capabilities and potentially demoralizing the enemy.
• Reports of Ukrainian brigades "disintegrating" can be interpreted as part of an information war, potentially aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale or influencing public perception.
• The image of Zelensky looking fatigued can be used for propaganda purposes by both sides, either to garner support or to portray weakness.
• Reports that the US planned terrorist attacks against its own citizens (Operation Northwoods) are being used to further anti-US narratives.
• The video featuring a group of women, likely relatives of Russian soldiers, protesting the transfer of their loved ones to a different brigade can be seen as a form of information warfare. The women are expressing their concerns about the conditions and leadership within the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade, alleging high losses and poor treatment of soldiers. This video could be used to highlight internal dissent within the Russian military and potentially damage morale.
• The video showcasing the training and values of the Institute of the National Guard in Saratov, Russia, can be interpreted as a form of information warfare. The video highlights the institute's focus on practical training, adapting to lessons learned from ongoing military conflicts, and fostering a sense of patriotism and loyalty among its cadets. This can be seen as an attempt to boost morale within the Russian military and project an image of strength and preparedness.
• The message about the Russian Telegram channel "RYBAR" being labeled as a tool for spreading Russian propaganda in Iraq highlights the ongoing information war in the Middle East. The fact that a media outlet linked to a former Iraqi official is making this claim suggests that the information war is also playing out among different factions within Iraq.
• The map analysis shared by the "Z committee + map of SVO" Telegram channel can be considered a form of information warfare. By presenting a specific interpretation of the military situation on the ground, they are attempting to shape public perception and influence the narrative around the conflict. The use of maps and military terminology adds a sense of authority and legitimacy to their claims.

Updated Assessment

The new information further reinforces the assessment of a deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces. The fall of Velyka Novosilka is a significant strategic and symbolic victory for Russia. The confirmation of Russian troops in the central part of the city, along with the video from a Ukrainian soldier's phone, underscores the severity of the situation for Ukrainian forces. The ongoing battles near Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove indicate a sustained Russian offensive, with Russian forces making significant advances and consolidating their positions. The new information about the 155th Mechanized Brigade operating Leopard 2A4 tanks near Pokrovsk is important, indicating that Ukrainian forces are deploying modern armor in this critical sector. However, reports of other brigades "disintegrating" raise concerns about the overall state of Ukrainian forces.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive remains stalled, with Russian forces making gains and inflicting heavy casualties. The protests by refugees and reports of North Korean casualties add complexity to the situation. The new reports of North Korean soldiers killing Russian marines and fleeing, if true, could indicate significant issues with discipline and morale within the coalition forces.

Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with widespread activity across Ukraine and even into Russian territory. The new reports of drone movements and air defense engagements highlight the ongoing threat and the need for constant vigilance. The drone attack on Tver Oblast in Russia demonstrates the reach of Ukrainian drone capabilities. The updated information on drone movements indicates a continued and widespread threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with new groups of drones reported in Chernihiv and Sumy regions.

The US aid suspension will likely have a significant impact on Ukraine's ability to sustain its war effort. The extension of the deadline for military re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens suggests that Ukraine is facing challenges in mobilizing sufficient manpower. The political and economic developments, including the potential exclusion of the EU from peace talks and the rising inflation in Russia, add further