Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 27, 2025, 08:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with Russian forces making significant advances across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is confirmed under complete Russian control, marking a significant strategic and symbolic victory for Russia. The Ukrainian defenses are reportedly collapsing in Toretsk, and Russian forces maintain their offensive momentum near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides and confirmed attacks deep inside Russia. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian assets with drones, including oil refineries and military facilities. Reports indicate a significant number of Ukrainian drones were intercepted overnight. The Ukrainian General Staff reports increased Russian assault activities on the Kramatorsk and Toretsk axes, indicating a potential escalation in these areas.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka:
- Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. Video evidence shows the Russian 40th Separate Guards Brigade of the Naval Infantry operating within the settlement and raising their flag, confirming the capture of the town.
- A large group of Ukrainian soldiers from the 110th Brigade reportedly surrendered.
- Russian forces are clearing basements and buildings of any remaining Ukrainian forces.
- The liberation of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic victory for Russian forces.
- Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian troops, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
- The Ukrainian command acknowledges the risk of an operational encirclement.
- Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using mortars, "Baba Yaga" drones, and tanks to destroy Russian forces and equipment.
- Video evidence shows snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group conducting a night hunt for enemy personnel.
- The "Voin DV" Telegram channel shows drone operators of the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group destroying a Ukrainian BMP north of Velyka Novosilka.
- Video evidence shows a Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian BMP north of Velyka Novosilka.
- The DeepState Telegram channel shared an analysis regarding Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, highlighting the importance of open-source intelligence (OSINT) in tracking the conflict.
- Video from Velyka Novosilka shows soldiers of the 40th Guards Marine Brigade raising the Russian flag, confirming the capture of the town.
- Video evidence shows Ukrainian soldiers expressing despair in Velyka Novosilka.
Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
- Positional fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line.
- Russian forces are reportedly within 3 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
- Powerful strikes are reported on Pokrovsk.
- Ukrainian forces are reportedly struggling to defend Pokrovsk.
- There is new video evidence of a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M113 APC near Pokrovsk.
- There is also video evidence of Russian forces engaging Ukrainian positions, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank.
- A captured soldier from the 153rd Brigade trained by the US 1st Cavalry Division in Germany was taken prisoner by Russian forces on the Pokrovsk front.
- Russian snipers are reportedly disrupting Ukrainian troop rotations in this area.
- Video evidence shows a Russian sniper operation disrupting a Ukrainian troop rotation near Pokrovsk.
- According to "Военкор Котенок", the situation in the Kotlyno-Udachnoye area has changed.
- Russian forces are advancing in the southern part of Udachnoye, fighting for the station, and approaching the center in the north.
- South of the village, fighting is taking place near Tsarskoye Stavok, Dolgoprudnaya Balka, and the eastern part of Novosergievka.
- In the Dimitrov (Kotlyno) area, Russian forces have captured a ventilation shaft and nearby landings.
- Cleanup operations are ongoing to the north, towards Sergeevka.
- Russian drones are operating not only in the landings but also in Sergeevka itself.
- There are also reports of advances towards Grishino.
- New: Russian forces are blocking the ability of Ukrainian forces to supply near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), according to Pushilin.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reports 488 Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk axis in the past week.
Chasiv Yar:
- Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district.
- Fighting continues in the Severnyi district.
- Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts from the north side of the railway and have launched an offensive south of the railway station.
- The press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade reports that the situation in Chasiv Yar is difficult, with Russian forces deploying units of "Akhmat" and former "Wagner" fighters.
- Russian paratroopers are using BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers to target Ukrainian positions on the western outskirts of Chasiv Yar.
- UAV units of the 98th Airborne Division are using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian firing points in the city.
Kurakhove:
- Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
- Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
- Russian forces are conducting assault operations in the Kurakhove direction.
- There is video evidence of the last battle of a Russian tank crew from the 5th Brigade of the 51st Army on October 29, 2024.
Toretsk:
- Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control.
- Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city, south of the "Fomikha" mine, for the "Toretska" mine, and the village of Krymske.
- Video evidence confirms Russian advances near Toretsk.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 Russian attacks in the area.
- A video from "Butusov Plus" shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions in Toretsk.
- Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian soldier in Toretsk.
- Russian forces have reportedly advanced in Toretsk, according to DeepState.
- Russian troops are storming the last strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Toretsk. Russian forces continue to attack on the northern outskirts of the city. Battles are taking place south of the "Fomikha" mine, behind the "Toretska" mine and the village of Krymske. In the latter, Russian units are bringing in forces to the southern part to take the rest of the village.
- New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities on the Toretsk axis.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reports 101 Russian attacks on the Toretsk axis in the past week.
Belohorivka:
- Video evidence shows Russian forces storming Ukrainian positions near Belohorivka, clearing trenches and destroying enemy forces.
Vuhledar:
- Russian sappers have discovered mines made with 3D printers, which are difficult to detect with metal detectors. They have reportedly neutralized over a thousand explosive devices in the area since the beginning of 2025.
Rozdolne:
- Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian troops in Rozdolne with drones. The 23rd Mechanized Brigade is reportedly active in the area.
Kramatorsk:
- At the Kramatorsk axis, clashes were reported near Chasiv Yar and Fedorivka.
- New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities on the Kramatorsk axis.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reports 102 Russian attacks on the Kramatorsk axis in the past week.
Zverevo:
- The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.
- Ukrainian defenses are built around mine waste heaps.
- Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs against these positions and drone control points.
- Fighting is ongoing in the landings near the city dump to the northwest.
Solone:
- Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
Uspenivka:
- Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- New: Russian forces are conducting active assault operations in the area of Uspenovka and Novoaleksandrovka, according to "Военкор Котенок".
Dachne:
- A video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces in Dachne.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.
They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction:
- Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
- Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports 105 Russian attacks on the Lyman axis in the past week.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory.
Russian forces report the capture of several settlements and are consolidating their control.
In Tetkino, Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops, using FPV drones and artillery. Ukrainian forces were reportedly instructed to change their tactical vehicle markings from a "cross" to a white or green stripe, depending on the vehicle's color.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area.
Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared, with the enemy making careless and unsuccessful counterattacks.
In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south, fighting is going on near Kurylivka.
Russian aviation struck with FAB-3000 in the north-eastern part of Sudzha and the northern outskirts of Honcharivka.
Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
Video evidence shows the moment of drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region.
Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye.
Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones.
Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to hunt Ukrainian infantry near Kupyansk.
New video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border.
Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
Video evidence from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Video evidence from the "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows fighting near Glubokoye.
Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows electronic warfare specialists of a separate motorized infantry brigade of the "Sever" group detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs in the Kursk region border area.
Video evidence shows the effective work of anti-tank marines in Kurshina.
A destroyed armored "Буханка" called "Коналю-2963" was reported in the Kursk region.
An FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroyed a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows operators of FPV drones of the Russian Armed Forces attacking enemy shelters on the Kherson direction.
Four Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over Belgorod overnight.
Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River and to destroy another unit in the same area.
"Дневник Десантника" reports that the enemy suffered losses of about 360 people in the Kursk region in the past day, and five people surrendered.
Video evidence shows a tank of the Russian Armed Forces being targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows Russian forces using a drone to target and destroy a Ukrainian armored pickup truck in the Kursk region.
Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
The acting governor of the Kursk region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2 in the Kursk region.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area of the Kursk region.
Battles are ongoing near Pogrebki, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
New: Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared, with the enemy making careless and unsuccessful counterattacks. Heavy fighting in the eastern part of the settlement, with the enemy using large strongholds. Russian Aerospace Forces are actively working in the area. The fog is hindering the use of drones, making it the time for assault groups to show their capabilities.
Overnight, Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted 57 out of 104 attacking drones across multiple regions, including Voronezh, Belgorod, Kursk, Tver, and Orlov.
Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with a sniper rifle in the Kursk region.
A Lancet loitering munition destroyed a tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk border area.
The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery strikes engaged AFU manpower and hardware near several settlements.
Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
Video evidence confirms the complete liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
"АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that on the Sudzhan direction, the enemy attempted to counterattack at night. The first wave, consisting of 20 personnel and two armored vehicles, was destroyed by Russian paratroopers and marines. The enemy subsequently abandoned further attempts and retreated.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue in the region. One drone is approaching Balakliya. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast and from another approaching from the south. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region. A third strike on Kharkiv was reported by the mayor, targeting the Kyivskyi district. Ukrainian authorities confirm another strike in the Kyivskyi district, with no reported casualties. A fire broke out at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack. Power and water supply issues are reported in some areas of the city. Three people were injured in the attacks on Kharkiv. A Russian "Lancet" drone destroyed a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer "Gvozdika" in the Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in the western and central parts of Kharkiv region, heading west. Drones are also reported north of Kharkiv, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava regions, heading west. A new group of Russian drones is reported in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, with a west/southwest course. New drone groups are reported on the east and in the central part of the Kharkiv region, with a western/southwestern course.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.
Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
Kupiansk: Is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have taken the initiative. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are reportedly suffering heavy losses. Video evidence shows a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region. Ballistic missiles were reportedly launched from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region. Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the north of Kharkiv Oblast. A guided aerial bomb (KAB) was reported in the direction of Staryi Saltiv (Kharkiv Oblast). In Sumy, Russian troops struck a Ukrainian deployment site, killing 18 and wounding 30. A Russian drone, likely a "Molniya", reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv. One person has been reported injured due to the drone attack.
Ukrainian forces report using drones to hunt Russian infantry near Kupyansk.

Other Regions

Drone Movements: Drone security is reported in multiple Russian regions and occupied Crimea. 5 drones are flying over the Berislav district towards Bereznehovate. 1 drone flew over Pokrov in a northerly direction. 2 drones are flying over Pavlograd in a northerly direction. 6 drones are in the Kremenchug region, heading northwest. 2 drones are circling near Cherkasy. 1 drone is moving from the Kharkiv region to the Dnipropetrovsk region, and 1 to the Poltava region. 3 drones are moving from the Sumy region to the Poltava region. Groups of drones are moving along the border of the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading northwest. Drones are in the east of the Mykolaiv region, heading northwest. Drones are in the north of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west. Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north. Drones are in the west of the Kharkiv region, heading west. Drones are in the south and center of the Poltava region, heading north. Drones are in the west of the Poltava region, heading west. Drones are in the north of the Sumy region, heading south. Drones are in the east of the Cherkasy region, heading north. Drones are on the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading north. Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north. Drones are in the Nikopol area, heading towards Kryvyi Rih. Several groups of attack UAVs are moving through the Sumy region towards the Chernihiv region. Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 15 drones did not reach their targets and were "lost on location." Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region. New reports of drone attacks in Sumy, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Khmelnytskyi regions.
Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted.
Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv. In Aleshki, Kherson Oblast, the enemy carried out remote mining of the settlement throughout yesterday and last night. As a result of the detonation of explosives, 12 civilians have already died, including children.
Dnipropetrovsk:
- Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight.
- Infrastructure was damaged in the Samarivskyi district, causing a fire. Three private houses and a farm building were also damaged.
- In Dnipro, three high-rise buildings were damaged. In one of them, a fire broke out, which was extinguished by rescuers.
- In the Nikopol region, the occupiers used "Grad" MLRS and heavy artillery, hitting the district center and the Marganets community.
- There is destruction on the territory of an industrial enterprise.
- No casualties were reported.
- Video evidence shows damage to buildings in Dnipro as a result of a night attack by Russian drones.
Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged in Sumy and the surrounding region following explosions.
Ryazan: There are reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan, with video evidence of a fire. Governor Pavel Malkov confirmed the drone attack on the region, stating that several drones were destroyed and there were no casualties. The Ukrainian General Staff confirms the repeated attack on the Ryazan oil refinery, stating that the operation was carried out by the Unmanned Systems Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
Ivano-Frankivsk: The region was under massive attack, targeting critical infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones in the Ternopil region from Khmelnytskyi.
Ingushetia: A fire at a power substation in Ingushetia left over 62,000 people without electricity.

Military Equipment

FPV drones: Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
UAVs: Ukrainian forces are using long-range attack UAVs.
"Kalibr" Missiles: In the Black Sea, there are 2 enemy ships, one of which is a carrier of "Kalibr" cruise missiles with a total salvo of up to 4 missiles. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 6 enemy ships, 2 of which are "Kalibr" missile carriers with a total salvo of up to 22 missiles. No enemy ships were detected in the Sea of Azov.
"Shahed" Drones: Russia launched another attack on Ukraine using "Shahed" drones.
X-59/69 Missiles: Russia attacked Ukraine with two X-59/69 missiles overnight.
Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeast axis and the use of guided aerial bombs on the Sumy region.

Geopolitical Developments

Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine.
Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
A potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump, has surfaced in the media.
Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict.
Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine.
Colombia has agreed to accept migrants from the US. Tariffs and some sanctions have been lifted. The impasse in relations with the US has been resolved, according to the Colombian Foreign Ministry.
Lukashenko won the presidential election in Belarus with 87.6% of the vote, according to exit poll data. The turnout was more than 75%. It is noted that 5.1% of voters voted against all candidates. Thus, Lukashenko won his 7th victory.
Saudi Arabia has purchased over €2 billion worth of arms from Russia, including 39 "Pantsir-S1M" air defense systems, potentially enhancing Russia's air defense capabilities.
There are reports of an increase in Israeli arms shipments to Ukraine.
Negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict may begin in April-May, preceded by a meeting between Putin and Trump, according to Hürriyet. The first step will be a ceasefire agreement.
The Swedish Security Service has detained a vessel in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of damaging a cable. The vessel, named Vezhen, is registered in Malta and departed from the Russian port of Ust-Luga on January 24.
Spanish and American intelligence services detained a ship with a Russian crew off the coast of Portugal on suspicion of drug trafficking.
A fiber optic cable between Latvia and Sweden has been damaged. A vessel suspected of sabotage has been detained.
The Israeli ambassador to Russia stated that Israel will be represented at the May 9 parade in Moscow, despite criticism from Ukrainians.
The UK government is considering selling two amphibious assault ships to Brazil at a significantly reduced price.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces. The confirmed fall of Velyka Novosilka, including reports of a large group of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering and the video evidence of Russian forces controlling the settlement, represents a significant strategic setback, further complicated by Russian advances in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk. The continued drone warfare, with attacks deep inside Russia, and the reported interception of multiple Ukrainian drones, add another layer of complexity to the conflict. The damage to infrastructure and civilian buildings in the Dnipropetrovsk region is a setback, but the absence of casualties is positive. The use of "Grad" MLRS and heavy artillery in the Nikopol region is a concerning escalation. The reported victory of Lukashenko in the Belarusian presidential election, with 87.6% of the vote, is likely to further solidify his regime's ties with Russia and could potentially lead to increased Belarusian involvement in the conflict. The new reports of infrastructure damage in Sumy and the surrounding region add to the list of areas affected by the ongoing conflict. The change in tactical markings for Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region suggests an adaptation to the evolving battlefield conditions and a potential response to Russian tactics. The new reports of Russian drone attacks in Sumy, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Khmelnytskyi regions, along with the confirmed attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan, indicate an escalation in Russia's air campaign. The Ukrainian General Staff's report of hitting four command posts and four areas of concentration of enemy personnel and equipment suggests that Ukrainian forces are still capable of conducting effective counterattacks. The reported explosions in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts, with a fire in a two-story building, highlight the continued threat to civilian areas and infrastructure. The new report from the Ukrainian Air Force regarding the downing of 57 enemy UAVs and the loss of 39 dummy drones provides further insight into the scale and intensity of the drone warfare. The damage to infrastructure and civilian buildings in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Kyiv regions highlights the continued impact of the conflict on civilian areas. The detention of a ship with a Russian crew off the coast of Portugal on suspicion of drug trafficking could potentially have geopolitical implications, although the connection to the conflict in Ukraine is unclear at this point. The damage to the fiber optic cable between Latvia and Sweden, with a vessel suspected of sabotage detained, raises concerns about potential attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region. The appointment of Major General Drapatiy as commander of the operational-strategic grouping of troops "Khortytsia" indicates a potential shift in Ukrainian military strategy on the Donetsk front. The continued fundraising efforts for Ukrainian troops, such as the one for the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, highlight the ongoing need for resources and support. The new information about Russian forces blocking supply routes near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) further complicates the situation for Ukrainian forces in the area. The increased Russian assault activities reported by the Ukrainian General Staff on the Kramatorsk and Toretsk axes suggest a potential escalation and a further deterioration of the situation for Ukrainian forces on these fronts.

The new report from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine regarding 1,080 combat clashes in the past week provides a quantitative measure of the conflict's intensity. The breakdown of Russian attacks by direction (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk) indicates the focal points of the Russian offensive and highlights the areas where Ukrainian defenses are under the most pressure. The high number of attacks on the Pokrovsk axis (488) is particularly concerning, given the already reported Russian advances in that area. The relatively lower, but still significant, numbers for Lyman, Kramatorsk, and Toretsk suggest a broader Russian offensive strategy aimed at stretching Ukrainian defenses across multiple axes.

The statement from the Israeli ambassador to Russia regarding Israel's representation at the May 9 parade in Moscow, despite criticism from Ukrainians who fled the war, is a significant geopolitical development. It highlights the complex diplomatic relationships and potential points of friction between Ukraine, Russia, and other countries. This statement could potentially impact Israel's relationship with Ukraine and may have implications for international support for Ukraine.

The report of the Moscow Stock Exchange resuming morning trading sessions suggests a potential return to normalcy in some aspects of the Russian economy, despite the ongoing conflict and sanctions. This could have implications for Russia's economic resilience and its ability to sustain the war effort.

The awarding of Ukrainian doctors with the "For Assistance to Defense" award from the Ministry of Defense is a recognition of the vital role played by medical personnel in supporting the war effort. It also highlights the impact of the conflict on the healthcare system and the sacrifices made by medical professionals.

The new record high for gold futures prices ($2,801.8 per troy ounce) is a significant economic indicator. It suggests that investors are seeking safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty, which could be driven by factors such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, and economic concerns. This could have implications for global financial markets and investment flows.

The analysis shared by the DeepState Telegram channel regarding Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka highlights the importance of open-source intelligence (OSINT) in tracking the conflict. The discrepancy between official Ukrainian reports and the information shared by DeepState underscores the challenges of obtaining accurate and timely information in a war zone. The warning about "lies" destroying everyone emphasizes the need for transparency and accountability in reporting on the conflict.

The information shared by the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel regarding a suspicious account potentially linked to Russian authorities or the enemy highlights the ongoing information warfare aspect of the conflict. The potential spread of misinformation and gathering of sensitive information underscore the need for vigilance and counter-intelligence efforts. The screenshots of a user profile and a group chat, along with the large number of members and the timing of reactions, suggest coordinated activities and potential threats in the information space. The soldier's frustrated tone and claims of being abandoned in the video can be exploited for propaganda purposes by both sides, highlighting command failures or demoralizing troops.

The continued critical reporting by the Voenkor Kotenok Telegram channel provides valuable insights into the internal challenges and potential weaknesses within the Russian military system. The focus on leadership issues, treatment of veterans, and inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy could impact morale and operational effectiveness. The video of Ukrainian soldiers expressing despair in Velyka Novosilka serves as propaganda for the Russian side, highlighting the demoralization and desperation of Ukrainian forces. The discussion of

Situation Report