Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 27, 2025, 04:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely critical, with Russian forces solidifying their positions and continuing advances across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is confirmed to be under complete Russian control, a significant strategic loss for Ukraine as it was a major logistics hub. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Velyka Novosilka, with units of the 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade, the 40th Guards Marine Brigade, and the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade credited with the capture. Russian forces are maintaining their offensive momentum near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar, while Ukrainian defenses are reportedly collapsing in Toretsk. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces, reportedly supported by North Korean soldiers, are regaining territory. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian assets with drones, including oil refineries and military facilities deep inside Russia.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:
  • Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the liberation of the settlement. "РБК-Україна" reports that the occupation of Velyka Novosilka may indicate where Russia will attack in the spring and summer.
  • Russian forces have visually confirmed their presence in the central part of the settlement, walking with flags and launching salutes.
  • Russian forces are clearing basements and buildings of any remaining Ukrainian forces.
  • The liberation of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic victory for Russian forces, as it was the largest logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the south of the Donetsk People's Republic.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
  • Positional fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line.
  • Russian forces are reportedly within 3 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
  • Powerful strikes are reported on Pokrovsk, with one woman killed in a Russian attack.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district.
  • Fighting continues in the Severnyi district.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts from the north side of the railway and have launched an offensive south of the railway station.
  • The press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade reports that the situation in Chasiv Yar is difficult, with Russian forces deploying units of "Akhmat" and former "Wagner" fighters.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
  • Russian forces are conducting assault operations in the Kurakhove direction.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control.
  • Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city, south of the "Fomikha" mine, for the "Toretska" mine, and the village of Krymske.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.
• They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements and are consolidating their control.
• In Tetkino, Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops, using FPV drones and artillery.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: One drone is approaching Balakliya. Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. There is a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling.
• Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.

Other Regions

• Drone Movements: Drone security is reported in multiple Russian regions and occupied Crimea. Seven Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Belgorod region and Crimea in the past two hours. One drone is approaching Starokostiantyniv. One drone is near the intersection of Ternopil and Lviv Oblasts, heading south. The threat of enemy drones has been cancelled.
• Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted.
• Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv.

Military Equipment

• "Орешник" system: Belarusian President Lukashenko announced that the hypersonic missile complex "Орешник" will be deployed in Belarus "any day now," even before it is delivered to Russia.
• FPV drones: Russian forces are using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
• UAVs: Ukrainian forces are using long-range attack UAVs An-196 "Lyutyy," reportedly with a range of 2000 km.
• "Kalibr" Missiles: In the Black Sea, there are 2 enemy ships, one of which is a carrier of "Kalibr" cruise missiles with a total salvo of up to 4 missiles. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 6 enemy ships, 2 of which are "Kalibr" missile carriers with a total salvo of up to 22 missiles. No enemy ships were detected in the Sea of Azov.

Geopolitical Developments

• Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
• The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
• European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine.
• Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
• A potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump, has surfaced in the media.
• Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict.
• Turkey has expressed its intention to assist the EU in replacing gas transit through Ukraine.
• Colombia has agreed to accept migrants from the US. Tariffs and some sanctions have been lifted.
• "Rybar" is seeking financial support to continue its operations.
• IT crimes reached a peak in Russia in 2024, with 765.4 thousand cybercrimes registered from January to December.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces. The confirmed fall of Velyka Novosilka represents a significant strategic setback, further complicated by Russian advances in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk. The occupation of Velyka Novosilka may indicate where Russia will attack in the spring and summer, according to ISW analysts. The continued drone warfare, with attacks deep inside Russia, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The potential deployment of the "Орешник" hypersonic missile complex in Belarus poses a new threat. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with uncertainties surrounding US policy under a potential Trump administration and growing concerns in Europe about a possible escalation of the conflict. The new reports of Russian advances in Toretsk and Kupyansk further exacerbate the already critical situation for Ukrainian forces. The visual confirmation of Russian forces in Velyka Novosilka underscores the severity of the situation and the need for immediate action. The new information about the killing of a civilian by a drone in the Kherson region highlights the ongoing threat to civilians in areas near the front lines. The cancellation of the threat of enemy drones is a positive development, but the overall situation remains critical.

Recommendations

1. Immediate Reinforcements: Prioritize the deployment of reinforcements, including anti-tank weapons, air defense systems, and manpower, to Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk to counter the Russian advances and prevent further encirclements.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: With the encirclement complete and the settlement under Russian control, focus on conducting rearguard actions in the surrounding areas to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks.
5. Address Logistical Challenges: Secure supply lines and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines.
6. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information.
8. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict.
9. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements and deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas.
10. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the confirmed shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding the aid freeze to Ukraine.
11. Intelligence Gathering: Utilize all available intelligence assets to gather information about Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions.
12. Adapt to Asymmetric Warfare: Develop and implement tactics that can effectively counter asymmetric threats, such as the use of improvised drones and 3D-printed mines.
13. Leverage Technological Advantages: Continue to invest in and develop advanced military technologies, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, electronic warfare, and cyber warfare.
14. Train and Equip Troops: Ensure that Ukrainian troops are adequately trained and equipped to deal with the evolving threats on the battlefield.
15. Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously monitor the situation on the ground and adjust strategies and tactics accordingly.
16. Prepare for Potential Escalation: Develop contingency plans to address potential escalation scenarios, particularly with the potential deployment of the "Орешник" system in Belarus.
17. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Enhance the protection of key facilities, such as power plants, oil refineries, and transportation hubs.
18. Address the Humanitarian Situation: Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations.
19. Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts.
20. Maintain International Solidarity: Continue to work with international partners to maintain solidarity and support for Ukraine.
21. Seek a Negotiated Solution: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, explore opportunities for a negotiated solution to the conflict.
22. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Identify and exploit any vulnerabilities in Russian defenses, particularly in areas where they have recently gained territory.
23. Develop Counter-Mine Measures: Invest in research and development of advanced mine detection technologies.
24. Assess Impact of EW Deployment: Monitor the impact of the newly deployed electronic warfare equipment on the northeastern front.
25. Monitor and Respond to Drone Shootdowns: Continuously monitor reports of Ukrainian drones being shot down over Russian territory.
26. Assess the Naval Situation: Enhance naval surveillance and intelligence gathering to monitor Russian naval movements and intentions.
27. Analyze the Video from Robotyne: Study the video detailing the withdrawal of Russian troops from Robotyne to develop counter-strategies and improve troop training.
28. Exploit Intelligence from Robotyne Video: Utilize the intelligence gathered from the Robotyne video to develop counter-drone tactics and improve defenses.
29. Address the Morale of Russian Troops: Implement measures to maintain and boost morale among troops.
30. Counter Propaganda: Counter Russian propaganda by providing accurate information about the situation on the ground.
31. Monitor and Counter Insurgency Efforts: Monitor efforts to incite insurgency and take measures to prevent the recruitment of individuals within Ukraine.
32. Address Potential for Urban Warfare: Prepare for potential urban combat scenarios by training troops in urban warfare tactics.
33. Counter Russian Information Operations: Counter Russian information operations by providing accurate and timely information.
34. Secure Communication Channels: Monitor Russian communication channels and develop strategies to counter their influence.
35. Analyze Russian Military Advances: Analyze Russian military advances and adjust defensive strategies accordingly.
36. Address Potential War Crimes: Document any potential war crimes and share information with international organizations.
37. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Identify and exploit weaknesses in Russian tactics and operations.
38. Analyze the New Video of Drone Strike: Study the new video of a drone strike on a Ukrainian soldier to develop counter-drone tactics.
39. Assess the Impact of Drone Attacks: Enhance air defense measures in regions threatened by drone attacks.
40. Address the Reported Losses in Luhansk: Investigate the report of significant Ukrainian losses in Luhansk and adjust defensive strategies.
41. Respond to the Situation in Kursk: Enhance security measures in the Kursk region and monitor for further incursions.
42. Respond to the New Attack on Ryazan: Investigate the reports of a new Ukrainian drone attack on Ryazan. Assess the damage and deploy emergency response teams if necessary. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter future attacks.
43. Address the Confirmed Loss of Velyka Novosilka: Acknowledge the loss of Velyka Novosilka and focus on regrouping and establishing new defensive lines. Analyze the factors that led to the loss and adapt strategies accordingly.
44. Counter the Visual Confirmation of Russian Presence in Velyka Novosilka: Disseminate accurate information to counter any Russian propaganda that may arise from their visual confirmation in the settlement. Highlight Ukrainian resistance in other areas and emphasize the ongoing nature of the conflict.
45. Exploit the Intelligence from the Video Showing Russian Presence in Velyka Novosilka: Analyze the video footage of Russian forces in Velyka Novosilka to gather intelligence on their numbers, equipment, and tactics. Use this information to plan counterattacks or disrupt their operations.
46. Address the Claims of Russian Advances in Toretsk and Kupyansk: Deploy additional troops and resources to these areas to reinforce defenses and counter the reported Russian advances. Prioritize the protection of these strategically important locations.
47. Monitor the Situation in Starokostiantyniv and the Ternopil-Lviv Border: Deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to these areas to detect and intercept incoming drones. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
48. Analyze the "Орешник" System Threat: Assess the potential threat posed by the deployment of the "Орешник" hypersonic missile complex in Belarus. Develop countermeasures and engage with international partners to address this new threat.
49. Counter the Geopolitical Implications of the "100-day Plan": Analyze the potential implications of the reported "100-day plan" for Ukraine and develop a diplomatic strategy to address any potential negative consequences. Engage with international partners to ensure continued support for Ukraine.
50. Address the Potential Impact of the US-Colombia Agreement: Analyze the potential impact of the US-Colombia agreement on the situation in Ukraine, particularly regarding the availability of US resources and support. Develop contingency plans to address any potential negative consequences.
51. Exploit the Visual Confirmation of Enemy Presence in Velyka Novosilka: Analyze the visual confirmation of enemy presence in Velyka Novosilka to gather intelligence on their numbers, equipment, and tactics. Use this information to plan counterattacks or disrupt their operations.
52. Counter the Messaging in the Image of Patches: Analyze the messaging conveyed by the image of patches ("WITH US" and "DO GOOD") to understand the intended narrative and potential propaganda efforts. Develop counter-messaging to maintain morale and influence public opinion.
53. Analyze the Image of a Soldier in a Muddy Environment: Study the image of a soldier in a muddy environment to assess the challenges posed by the terrain and weather conditions. Adapt operational plans and logistical support accordingly.
54. Address the Loss of Velyka Novosilka: Acknowledge the loss of Velyka Novosilka and focus on regrouping and establishing new defensive lines. Analyze the factors that led to the loss and adapt strategies accordingly.
55. Counter the Visual Confirmation of Russian Presence in Velyka Novosilka: Disseminate accurate information to counter any Russian propaganda that may arise from their visual confirmation in the settlement. Highlight Ukrainian resistance in other areas and emphasize the ongoing nature of the conflict.
56. Exploit the Intelligence from the Video Showing Russian Presence in Velyka Novosilka: Analyze the video footage of Russian forces in Velyka Novosilka to gather intelligence on their numbers, equipment, and tactics. Use this information to plan counterattacks or disrupt their operations.
57. Address the Claims of Russian Advances in Toretsk and Kupyansk: Deploy additional troops and resources to these areas to reinforce defenses and counter the reported Russian advances. Prioritize the protection of these strategically important locations.
58. Monitor the Situation in Starokostiantyniv and the Ternopil-Lviv Border: Deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to these areas to detect and intercept incoming drones. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
59. Analyze the "Орешник" System Threat: Assess the potential threat posed by the deployment of the "Орешник" hypersonic missile complex in Belarus. Develop countermeasures and engage with international partners to address this new threat.
60. Counter the Geopolitical Implications of the "100-day Plan": Analyze the potential implications of the reported "100-day plan" for Ukraine and develop a diplomatic strategy to address any potential negative consequences. Engage with international partners to ensure continued support for Ukraine.
61. Address the Potential Impact of the US-Colombia Agreement: Analyze the potential impact of the US-Colombia agreement on the situation in Ukraine, particularly regarding the availability of US resources and support. Develop contingency plans to address any potential negative consequences.
62. Exploit the Visual Confirmation of Enemy Presence in Velyka Novosilka: Analyze the visual confirmation of enemy presence in Velyka Novosilka to gather intelligence on their numbers, equipment, and tactics. Use this information to plan counterattacks or disrupt their operations.
63. Counter the Messaging in the Image of Patches: Analyze the messaging conveyed by the image of patches ("WITH US" and "DO GOOD") to understand the intended narrative and potential propaganda efforts. Develop counter-messaging to maintain morale and influence public opinion.
64. Analyze the Image of a Soldier in a Muddy Environment: Study the image of a soldier in a muddy environment to assess the challenges posed by the terrain and weather conditions. Adapt operational plans and logistical support accordingly.
65. Address the Visual Confirmation of Russian Forces in Velyka Novosilka: Acknowledge the visual confirmation of Russian forces in Velyka Novosilka and adjust military strategies accordingly. Focus on containing their advance and preventing further incursions into Ukrainian territory.
66. Exploit the Intelligence Gained from the Visual Confirmation: Analyze the images and videos showing Russian forces in Velyka Novosilka to gather intelligence on their numbers, equipment, and tactics. Use this information to plan counterattacks or disrupt their operations.
67. Counter the Narrative Presented by "Операция Z": Address the claims made by "Операция Z" regarding the situation in Velyka Novosilka. Provide accurate information about the ongoing fighting and counter any false narratives being spread.
68. Analyze the Implications of the "Сводка" from "Два майора": Study the "Сводка" (summary) provided by "Два майора" to understand the Russian perspective on the situation. Identify any potential discrepancies or biases and adjust Ukrainian strategies accordingly.
69. Address the Reported Russian Advances: Deploy additional troops and resources to areas where Russian forces are reportedly advancing, such as Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and the Pokrovsk direction. Reinforce defenses and prepare for potential counterattacks.
70. Monitor the Situation in Starokostiantyniv and the Ternopil-Lviv Border: Deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to these areas to detect and intercept incoming drones. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
71. Analyze the Images Shared by Colonelcassad: Study the images shared by Colonelcassad to gather intelligence on Russian troop movements, equipment, and morale. Use this information to inform Ukrainian strategies and counter any potential propaganda efforts.
72. Counter the Narrative Presented by "НгП раZVедка": Address the claims made by "НгП раZVедка" regarding the image of a muddy soldier. Provide accurate information about the situation on the ground and counter any false narratives being spread.
73. Respond to the Killing of a Civilian in Kherson: Investigate the killing of a civilian in the Kherson region and provide support to the affected community. Enhance security measures in the area to protect civilians from drone attacks.
74. Analyze the Implications of the Occupation of Velyka Novosilka: Study the information from "РБК-Україна" regarding the potential implications of the occupation of Velyka Novosilka for future Russian offensives. Adjust defensive strategies accordingly and prepare for potential attacks in the spring and summer.
75. Monitor Russian Naval Activity: Continuously monitor Russian naval activity in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, and the Mediterranean Sea. Pay particular attention to the movement of "Kalibr" missile carriers and adjust defensive strategies accordingly.
76. Address the Lifting of the Drone Threat: Acknowledge the lifting of the drone threat and use this opportunity to regroup and resupply. Continue to monitor the situation and maintain a high level of readiness for potential future attacks.

These recommendations are based on the current situation and available information. The situation is constantly evolving, and recommendations may need to be adjusted accordingly.