Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 27, 2025, 03:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be extremely critical, with Russian forces maintaining their offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region and the Zaporizhzhia front near Robotyne. The capture of strategic locations like Velyka Novosilka and the intense fighting around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk underscore the severity of the situation for Ukrainian forces. Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with increased activity across multiple Ukrainian oblasts and confirmed attacks inside Russia. Reports detail a challenging withdrawal of Russian troops from Robotyne, further Russian advances, and new drone attacks.

The discovery of advanced mines near Vuhledar, continued drone attacks in Kharkiv, and a new drone movement towards Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zhytomyr add complexity to the situation. Ukrainian naval forces report 2 Russian warships in the Black Sea, one of which is a Kalibr missile carrier with up to 4 missiles, and 6 Russian warships in the Mediterranean Sea, 2 of which are Kalibr missile carriers with up to 22 missiles. No Russian warships are present in the Azov Sea. Russian sources report that 15 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight, with 8 in the Ryazan region, 6 in the Kursk region, and 1 in the Belgorod region. The confirmed 90-day suspension of most US foreign aid adds a layer of complexity, potentially impacting Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts severely.

Russian forces have reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino in the Kursk region. Russian forces repelled the Ukrainian attempt using FPV drones and artillery to neutralize the Ukrainian forces.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: The encirclement is complete, with Russian forces controlling over 70% of the settlement. Ukrainian troops are blocked, and the escape route towards Blagodatnoye is cut off. Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian positions within the settlement with artillery.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line to the city. The situation is dire, with 48 assault actions reported, indicating a major Russian offensive.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. They are fighting in the Severnyi district.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. 14 enemy attacks were repelled.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. Video evidence confirms Russian advances near Toretsk.
• Vuhledar: Russian sappers have discovered mines made with 3D printers, which are difficult to detect with metal detectors. They have reportedly neutralized over a thousand explosive devices in the area since the beginning of 2025.

Zaporizhzhia Front

• Robotyne: A video report details the challenging withdrawal of Russian troops from Robotyne, highlighting the difficulties faced and the resilience of the soldiers. The troops mention facing 17 drone attacks on one of their positions. The report emphasizes the importance of physical fitness and experience in such operations.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple oblasts (Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia).
• Drones are reported on the north and southwest of Vinnytsia, moving west, northwest, and north.
• Drones are reported on the north and southwest of Khmelnytskyi, moving west and northwest.
• Drones are reported in the east of Zhytomyr Oblast, moving southeast.
• Drones are in the north of Kyiv Oblast, moving west and south.
• Drones are reported in the east of Ternopil Oblast, moving north.
• A drone was reported heading towards Kharkiv from the north.
• The mayor of Kharkiv confirmed a drone attack on the city, with one strike hitting a private building in the Osnovianskyi district. Initial reports indicate no casualties, but windows, roof, and part of the building were damaged.
• A drone has been reported heading towards Starokostiantyniv.
• One drone is approaching Ivano-Frankivsk. Reports indicate renewed explosions in the region.
• Two drones are approaching Zhytomyr. A drone is heading towards the city from the northeast.
• New: Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, and Ternopil Oblasts are under drone attack, with drones observed moving in various directions (west, northwest, and southwest).
• New: Sumy Oblast is under threat of drone attacks.
• New: Rivne Oblast is under threat of drone attacks from the southeast.

Drone Attacks in Russia

• Explosions and fires were reported in Ryazan due to drone attacks. Russian air defense systems are actively engaging drones, with several confirmed destroyed.
• Russian sources report that 15 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight, with 8 in the Ryazan region, 6 in the Kursk region, and 1 in the Belgorod region.

Kharkiv

• An explosion was heard in Kharkiv, correlating with earlier reports of drone activity in the area. The mayor confirmed a drone attack, with one strike hitting a private building in the Osnovianskyi district, causing damage but no reported casualties.

Luhansk

• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.
• New: Russian forces reportedly destroyed 7,200 Ukrainian soldiers and mercenaries on the borders of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week.

Maritime Situation

• Ukrainian naval forces report 2 Russian warships in the Black Sea, one of which is a Kalibr missile carrier with up to 4 missiles.
• No Russian warships are present in the Azov Sea.
• Ukrainian naval forces report 6 Russian warships in the Mediterranean Sea, 2 of which are Kalibr missile carriers with up to 22 missiles.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has halted most foreign aid for 90 days. President Trump confirmed the freeze on new aid to other countries.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to make significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region and now on the Zaporizhzhia front near Robotyne. The complete encirclement of Velyka Novosilka and the critical situation in Pokrovsk represent major setbacks for Ukraine. The escalating drone warfare, with increased activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks inside Russia, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new reports of drone movements towards Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil Oblasts, the confirmed drone attack in Kharkiv, and the threat of attack drones in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Rivne Oblasts indicate a significant expansion and intensification of the drone conflict. The new report of a drone heading towards Starokostiantyniv is concerning.

The use of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast and the deployment of electronic warfare equipment to the front lines indicate continued Russian military activity and technological advancements. The new report of 15 Ukrainian drones shot down over Russian territory indicates the effectiveness of Russian air defenses but also highlights the scale of the drone threat. The new information about the naval situation in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas indicates a significant Russian naval presence, particularly in the Mediterranean, with a substantial number of Kalibr missiles ready to be launched.

The geopolitical developments, including the US aid suspension and President Trump's statements, further complicate the situation for Ukraine. The video evidence of Russian forces discovering advanced, hard-to-detect mines near Vuhledar highlights the intensity of the fighting and the evolving tactics being employed. The new video evidence from Robotyne provides a glimpse into the challenging conditions faced by Russian troops and the impact of drone warfare on their operations. The new video evidence of a drone successfully targeting a Ukrainian soldier on the move highlights the effectiveness of Russian drone operations and the constant threat faced by Ukrainian troops. The report of 7,200 Ukrainian soldiers and mercenaries destroyed on the borders of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week indicates heavy losses for Ukrainian forces in that region.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: With the encirclement complete, focus on conducting rearguard actions in Velyka Novosilka to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets. Address the new drone threats in Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Sumy, and Rivne Oblasts, and the new report of a drone heading towards Starokostiantyniv.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas under threat, including Kharkiv and regions targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks, such as Ryazan.
5. Address Logistical Challenges: Secure supply lines and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines.
6. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems. Address the confirmed 90-day suspension of US aid and explore alternative funding sources.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
8. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
9. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements, particularly the reported movements in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Rivne Oblasts. Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas.
10. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the confirmed shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding the 90-day aid freeze to Ukraine. Urgently engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support and explore alternative funding sources.
11. Intelligence Gathering: Utilize all available intelligence assets to gather information about Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions.
12. Adapt to Asymmetric Warfare: The increasing use of improvised drones, 3D-printed mines, and other asymmetric tactics by both sides requires a flexible and adaptive approach to warfare. Develop and implement tactics that can effectively counter these threats while also leveraging similar capabilities to gain an advantage.
13. Leverage Technological Advantages: Continue to invest in and develop advanced military technologies, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, electronic warfare, and cyber warfare.
14. Train and Equip Troops: Ensure that Ukrainian troops are adequately trained and equipped to deal with the evolving threats on the battlefield, including training in counter-drone operations, urban warfare, and the use of advanced weaponry. This includes training on detecting and neutralizing mines made with 3D printers.
15. Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously monitor the situation on the ground and adjust strategies and tactics accordingly. The fluid and dynamic nature of the conflict requires a high degree of flexibility and adaptability.
16. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The ongoing conflict has the potential to escalate further, particularly if new weapons systems are introduced or if the conflict spills over into neighboring countries. Develop contingency plans to address potential escalation scenarios.
17. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Given the continued targeting of critical infrastructure by both sides, enhance the protection of key facilities, such as power plants, oil refineries, and transportation hubs.
18. Address the Humanitarian Situation: Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
19. Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts. This includes assessing the damage to infrastructure, developing plans for rebuilding, and securing funding for these efforts.
20. Maintain International Solidarity: Continue to work with international partners to maintain solidarity and support for Ukraine. This includes diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia, economic sanctions, and military assistance.
21. Seek a Negotiated Solution: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, explore opportunities for a negotiated solution to the conflict.
22. Respond to the Situation in Kharkiv: Investigate the cause of the explosion in Kharkiv and assess the extent of the damage. Deploy emergency response teams and provide assistance to any affected civilians. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter potential future attacks.
23. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: The report indicating potential weaknesses in Russian tactics, particularly their difficulty in securing captured positions, should be exploited. Launch counterattacks to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian advances.
24. Develop Counter-Mine Measures: Given the discovery of mines made with 3D printers, invest in research and development of advanced mine detection technologies that can identify mines with minimal metal components. Train sappers on new techniques for detecting and neutralizing these types of mines.
25. Assess Impact of EW Deployment: Monitor the impact of the newly deployed electronic warfare equipment on the northeastern front. Gather intelligence on its effectiveness in disrupting Ukrainian operations and protecting Russian troops.
26. Respond to the New Attack on Ryazan: Investigate the reports of a new Ukrainian drone attack on Ryazan. Assess the damage and deploy emergency response teams if necessary. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter future attacks.
27. Monitor and Respond to Drone Shootdowns: Continuously monitor reports of Ukrainian drones being shot down over Russian territory. Analyze the locations and frequency of these incidents to assess the effectiveness of Russian air defenses and identify potential vulnerabilities.
28. Assess the Naval Situation: Given the reported presence of Russian warships and Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea, enhance naval surveillance and intelligence gathering to monitor their movements and intentions. Develop contingency plans for potential missile strikes and coordinate with international partners to address the threat.
29. Analyze the Video from Robotyne: Study the video detailing the withdrawal of Russian troops from Robotyne. Analyze the tactics used, the challenges faced, and the impact of drone warfare on the operation. Use this information to develop counter-strategies and improve troop training and preparedness.
30. Exploit Intelligence from Robotyne Video: Utilize the intelligence gathered from the Robotyne video, such as the mention of 17 drone attacks on a single position, to develop counter-drone tactics and improve defenses against drone attacks.
31. Address the Morale of Russian Troops: The video from Robotyne highlights the importance of physical fitness and morale among troops. Implement measures to maintain and boost morale, provide necessary support and resources, and address any concerns promptly to prevent demoralization.
32. Counter Propaganda: The video from Robotyne and the messages from Colonelcassad could be part of a propaganda effort. Counter these narratives by providing accurate information about the situation on the ground, highlighting Ukrainian successes, and addressing any false claims made by Russian sources.
33. Monitor and Counter Insurgency Efforts: The message from Colonelcassad encouraging Ukrainians to join the "people's resistance" and offering payment for cooperation indicates an attempt to incite insurgency. Monitor these efforts closely, counter the propaganda, and take measures to prevent the recruitment of individuals within Ukraine.
34. Address Potential for Urban Warfare: The image shared by Colonelcassad, showing a target reticle over a city map with coordinates, suggests a focus on urban warfare. Prepare for potential urban combat scenarios by training troops in urban warfare tactics, securing key infrastructure, and developing strategies for engaging in densely populated areas.
35. Counter Russian Information Operations: The messages and images shared by Colonelcassad are part of a broader information operation aimed at influencing public opinion, recruiting collaborators, and demoralizing Ukrainian forces. Counter these efforts by providing accurate and timely information, exposing false narratives, and highlighting Russian losses and setbacks.
36. Secure Communication Channels: The technical work being done on Colonelcassad's communication channels indicates an effort to improve their effectiveness in disseminating information and propaganda. Monitor these channels closely, analyze their content, and develop strategies to counter their influence.
37. Analyze Russian Military Advances: The video from TASS showing the liberation of Zelenoye in the DNR and the images shared by Colonelcassad depicting deceased Ukrainian soldiers indicate continued Russian military advances. Analyze these developments, assess the impact on the overall situation, and adjust defensive strategies accordingly.
38. Address Potential War Crimes: The images shared by Colonelcassad depicting deceased Ukrainian soldiers, some with signs of severe trauma, raise concerns about potential war crimes. Document these incidents, gather evidence, and share information with international organizations to pursue accountability for those responsible.
39. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: The video from Robotyne suggests that Russian troops may be facing challenges in terms of morale, supply, and vulnerability to drone attacks. Identify and exploit these weaknesses by targeting supply lines, disrupting operations, and conducting counterattacks where feasible.
40. Analyze the New Video of Drone Strike: Study the new video shared by Colonelcassad, showing a drone successfully targeting a Ukrainian soldier on the move. Analyze the tactics used, the accuracy of the strike, and the implications for Ukrainian troop movements and safety. Use this information to develop counter-drone tactics and improve troop training and preparedness.
41. Assess the Impact of Drone Attacks: Given the reports of renewed drone attacks in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast and the threats to Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Sumy, and Rivne Oblasts, enhance air defense measures in these regions and monitor the situation closely. Provide early warning to civilians and deploy rapid response units to intercept any incoming threats.
42. Address the Reported Losses in Luhansk: Investigate the report of 7,200 Ukrainian soldiers and mercenaries being destroyed on the borders of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week. Assess the impact of these losses on Ukrainian forces in the region and adjust defensive strategies accordingly.
43. Respond to the Situation in Kursk: Given the report of Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino in the Kursk region, enhance security measures in the area and monitor for further attempts. Analyze the tactics used by the Ukrainian forces and develop counter-strategies to prevent future incursions.

These recommendations are based on the current situation and available information. The situation is constantly evolving, and recommendations may need to be adjusted accordingly.