Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 26, 2025, 23:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces, who have now captured most of the city. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory, inflicting heavy losses, and neutralizing Ukrainian units. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including new reports of drone movements and air defense engagements. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure. Russian forces continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:
  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement, signifying a major symbolic victory. The capture of the city is nearing completion, marking a significant strategic loss for Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian troops are blocked to the north and south, with the only remaining escape route on foot towards Blahodatne.
  • Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River.
  • A video found on a Ukrainian soldier's phone during the clearing of Velyka Novosilka shows Ukrainian soldiers expressing their awareness of their dire situation, acknowledging they will not return alive. One soldier mentions he was able to escape from Avdiivka but not this time.
  • Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance, consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
  • The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe, with ongoing battles.
  • Near Baranivka, Russian assault groups are attacking enemy positions towards Tarasivka.
  • Fighting also continues near Zelene Pole and Kalynove.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
  • They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Sievernyi district.
  • Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
  • The basements and workshops of the refractory plant have been completely cleared.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive.
  • Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators from the "Raroh" battalion of the 24th Mechanized Brigade targeting Russian positions near Chasiv Yar, causing buildings to collapse.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
  • Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
  • Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk, engaging in close-quarters combat.
• Kramatorsk:
  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
• Zverevo:
  • The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.
• Solone:
  • Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
• Uspenivka:
  • Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Dachnoe:
  • A video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces in Dachnoe, in support of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division's offensive in the Kurakhove direction.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka, taking control of a forest area between the settlements and continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
• In the direction of Hrekivka Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske, with Russian forces approaching Mala Loknia and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
• The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
• In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
• Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south, fighting is going on near Kurylivka.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
• Western officials cited by the BBC report that about 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region.
• South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed in the region.
• A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled.
• Reports of an American mercenary known as "Doctor Death" being captured by Russian forces in the Kursk region.
• According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, Russian forces in the Kursk direction have neutralized over 180 Ukrainian troops, a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, four armored fighting vehicles, ten motor vehicles, a self-propelled artillery unit, two towed howitzers, a mortar, three electronic warfare stations, two UAV control points, and an ammunition depot.
• In total, since the beginning of the conflict in the region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost over 55,000 troops, 319 tanks, 238 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armored personnel carriers, 1,626 armored fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 US-made MLRS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 103 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, 4 air defense radars, 32 engineering vehicles (including 13 obstacle-clearing vehicles, 1 UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, 9 armored recovery vehicles, and 1 command post vehicle).
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino in the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops near Tetkino in the Kursk region.
• FPV drones and artillery were used to neutralize the Ukrainian forces.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya in the Kursk region.
• The video shows the body of a North Korean lieutenant colonel, along with his weapons and equipment.
• New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka, in the Kursk region, discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:
  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • One drone is flying from the Kharkiv region towards Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:
  • Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west.
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
  • All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
  • Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
  • New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region, with a southern course.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
  • One drone from the Ternopil region is heading towards Ivano-Frankivsk.
  • Two drones from the Khmelnytskyi region have moved into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • One drone from the Vinnytsia region is moving into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • Four drones from the Kirovohrad region are heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
  • One drone is north of Kropyvnytskyi, with a western course.
  • One drone is flying past Dolynska with a western course.
  • One drone is circling near Pavlohrad.
  • Three drones are in the Cherkasy area, with a southwestern course.
  • Three new drones are in the east of the Chernihiv region, with a southwestern course.
  • Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down, with no reported casualties.

Internal Russian Military Situation

• 51st Army: In the former army of the DNR, now part of the 51st Army of the Russian Armed Forces, there is a shortage of personnel on the front lines. Despite reports of successful operations, the number of troops available for assaults is insufficient.
• Sports Relays Order: There are reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting. This has led to criticism and accusations of "idiocy" due to the disconnect from the realities on the ground. The order is seen as an example of the disconnect between the higher command and the situation on the front lines. Commanders are reportedly afraid to voice their concerns about the impracticality of such orders during active combat.

Political/Economic Situation

• Israeli Ambassador's Statement: The Israeli ambassador to Russia stated that "Israel will not forget the feat of the Russian people, and Israel will be represented at the May 9 parade in Moscow." This statement has drawn criticism from Ukrainians who were forced to flee their country due to the war.
• Moscow Stock Exchange: The Moscow Stock Exchange is resuming morning trading sessions on the stock and derivatives markets.
• Ukrainian Doctors Awarded: Ukrainian doctors from the BF Forpost Ukraine and the non-staff medical unit have been awarded the "For Assistance to Defense" award from the Ministry of Defense.
• Gold Futures: The price of gold futures reached a new historical high, surpassing $2,801.8 per troy ounce.

Information Warfare

• DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, contradicting official Ukrainian reports. They criticize the discrepancy between official statements and the reality on the ground, warning that "lies will destroy us all."
• "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel: A user on the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel warned about a suspicious account, potentially linked to either Russian authorities or the enemy, that may attempt to spread misinformation or gather sensitive information. The account has been active since December and is now escalating its activities.
• The "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel also shared screenshots of a user profile and a group chat, raising concerns about potential threats and information gathering activities. The user profile "Philologist in Ambush" suggests a person with expertise in language and a possible military mindset, while the group chat activity indicates coordination and information sharing.
• The reaction list shows recent activity, indicating active monitoring and engagement within the group. The large number of members and the timing of reactions suggest coordinated activities within a specific timeframe.
• The video's content, especially the soldier's frustrated tone and claims of being abandoned, can be exploited for propaganda by both sides. The Ukrainian side might use it to highlight command failures, while the Russian side might use it to demoralize Ukrainian troops and sow discord.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure, specifically focusing on leadership issues, the treatment of veterans, and the inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them. This video serves as propaganda for the Russian side, highlighting the demoralization and desperation of Ukrainian forces.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military, contrasting their agility and innovation with the perceived shortcomings of larger state-controlled entities.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans and their exclusion from political life.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military, further fueling the perception of injustice and inequality within the system.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces, revealing a fragmented and potentially unstable command structure.

Updated Assessment

The new information further reinforces the assessment of a deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces. The fall of Velyka Novosilka is a significant strategic and symbolic victory for Russia. The confirmation of Russian troops in the central part of the city, along with the video from a Ukrainian soldier's phone, underscores the severity of the situation for Ukrainian forces. The ongoing battles near Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove indicate a sustained Russian offensive, with Russian forces making significant advances and consolidating their positions.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive remains stalled, with Russian forces making gains and inflicting heavy casualties. The protests by refugees and reports of North Korean casualties add complexity to the situation. The new reports of North Korean soldiers killing Russian marines and fleeing, if true, could indicate significant issues with discipline and morale within the coalition forces.

Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with widespread activity across Ukraine and even into Russian territory. The new reports of drone movements and air defense engagements highlight the ongoing threat and the need for constant vigilance. The drone attack on Tver Oblast in Russia demonstrates the reach of Ukrainian drone capabilities.

The internal situation within the Russian military, as highlighted by the reports from the 51st Army and the continued criticisms from Voenkor Kotenok, reveals challenges with manpower shortages, unrealistic orders, and a disconnect between the front lines and the command structure. This could impact morale and operational effectiveness. The information regarding internal conflicts, particularly within the volunteer forces and the DNR militia, suggests a fragmented and potentially unstable command structure, which could be exploited by Ukrainian forces.

The information warfare dimension remains active, with both sides attempting to shape the narrative and exploit the situation for their own advantage. The discrepancies between official reports and on-the-ground accounts, as highlighted by the DeepState channel, underscore the importance of accurate and timely intelligence. The continued critical reporting by Voenkor Kotenok provides valuable insights into the internal challenges and potential weaknesses within the Russian military system.

The political and economic developments, such as the Israeli ambassador's statement, the resumption of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, and the new record high for gold prices, provide context to the broader geopolitical landscape.

Overall, the new information reinforces the assessment of a deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces making significant advances and consolidating their positions. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The ongoing drone warfare and the internal challenges within both militaries will also play a significant role in shaping the outcome. The new reports of drone activity in multiple regions of Ukraine and the continued criticisms of the Russian military by Voenkor Kotenok indicate an escalation in the conflict and a broadening of the combat zone.