Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 26, 2025, 19:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical and dynamic. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, with confirmed advances around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and the complete capture of Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, and Russian forces, reportedly supported by North Korean soldiers, are regaining territory. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant aspect of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides and confirmed Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory. The EU is considering a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission, though skepticism exists. Reports indicate a potential shift in the political landscape of Belarus, with incumbent President Lukashenko claiming a landslide victory in the recent elections, securing 87.6% of the vote according to exit polls. A new "100-day plan" by former US President Trump for a settlement in Ukraine has surfaced, though its authenticity is unconfirmed. The plan reportedly involves a phased approach, including a ceasefire, withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, and an international peace conference. Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict, with concerns about a possible "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance and a reduction in US support under a new administration.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. Russian flags have been raised over all districts. Video evidence shows Russian forces claiming the liberation of the city and highlighting its strategic importance for future advances. Russian troops have liberated Velyka Novosilka, which was the largest logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the south of the Donetsk People's Republic. Video evidence shows soldiers of the 40th Guards Marine Brigade raising the Russian flag, confirming its capture. The soldiers claim to have taken the town without frontal assaults, instead flanking the Ukrainian forces. The liberation of Velyka Novosilka is claimed to have ended the existence of the Vremyevsky salient.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line. Positional fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line. Russian forces are reportedly within 3 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two main routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. Ukrainian military sources indicate Russian forces are advancing on both sides of Pokrovsk to cut off supply routes and encircle the city. The Russian Ministry of Defense officially reports the liberation of Zelenoye in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian attempts to repel Russian attacks near Udachnoye have failed. Russian forces are advancing in the southern part of Udachnoye, fighting for the station, and approaching the center in the north. South of the village, fighting is taking place near Tsarskoye Stavok, Dolgoprudnaya Balka, and the eastern part of Novosergievka. In the Dimitrov (Kotlyno) area, Russian forces have captured a ventilation shaft and nearby landings. Cleanup operations are ongoing to the north, towards Sergeevka. Russian drones are operating not only in the landings but also in Sergeevka itself. There are also reports of advances towards Grishino. Video shows multiple missile trails and reports that Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city. One woman was killed due to a Russian attack on the city of Pokrovsk, according to the regional prosecutor's office. Four people were injured in Russian shelling of Konstantinivka, according to local authorities.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Severnyi district. Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts from the north side of the railway and have launched an offensive south of the railway station. After clearing the workshops of the refractory plant, battles have shifted to the area west of Workshop No. 1. Russian forces launched an offensive south of the railway station, expanding their control after artillery shelling near Dniprovsky Pond. The situation in the area is described as difficult, with Russian forces attempting to advance. The press service of the 24th Mechanized Brigade reports that the situation in Chasiv Yar is difficult, with Russian forces deploying units of "Akhmat" and former "Wagner" fighters to reinforce their assault groups.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories. Video evidence shows a soldier eliminating a Russian soldier near Kurakhove. Fighting is reported near Dachnoe. A Russian infantry attack was repelled. Russian forces have extended their control zone by 400 meters along the Kurakhove-Dachnoe road. Russian forces are advancing near Petropavlivka, Dachnoe and Sukhykh Yal. Russian forces are conducting assault operations in the Kurakhove direction, with the support of the "Southern" troop grouping. Video evidence shows the 68th "Iron" Tank Regiment conducting artillery and drone strikes on Ukrainian positions and equipment in Dachne, supporting an assault.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters. In the Krymske area, Russian forces advanced 400 meters, reaching new positions on the northern outskirts of the settlement. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian soldier in Toretsk.
Other Locations: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. Fighting continues in Zverevo, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka. In the direction of Hrekivka Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m. Near Kolodyazi there are active assault operations. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove. North of Kupiansk on the right bank of the Oskil River, units of the "West" group have liberated the settlement of Zakhidne. Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory. Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruhlenke failed. Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurylivka. Russian forces report that Nikolayevo-Daryino is under their control. Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnivka. In the area of Kruhlenke/Viktorivka, Russian assault units have entered Viktorivka and are attempting to establish a foothold. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have inflicted damage in the Kursk region amounting to 750 billion rubles. About 1,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been killed in the region while fighting against Ukraine. British intelligence reports that approximately 4,000 North Korean soldiers were killed in the region. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction. Russian forces have reportedly fully liberated Nikolayevo-Daryino. Russian naval infantry are reportedly continuing to engage Ukrainian forces in Kurylivka. Ukrainian forces are reportedly increasing their presence in the Sudzha border area. A coordination council has been created in the Kursk region to address the problems of residents in the border areas. Ukrainian servicemen of the "Chernomorskaya Sech" battalion are accused of committing terrorist acts in the region. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya. Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky. Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor. A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. North Korea has announced an increase in military spending for 2025. The acting governor of the Kursk region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces. Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel. In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region. Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south, fighting is going on near Kurylivka. Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering. In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region. Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south. Western officials cited by the BBC report that about 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region. South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed in the region. A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled. Reports of an American mercenary known as "Doctor Death" being captured by Russian forces in the Kursk region. Video details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoe. Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, Russian forces in the Kursk direction have neutralized over 180 Ukrainian troops, a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, four armored fighting vehicles, ten motor vehicles, a self-propelled artillery unit, two towed howitzers, a mortar, three electronic warfare stations, two UAV control points, and an ammunition depot. In total, since the beginning of the conflict in the region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost over 55,000 troops, 319 tanks, 238 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armored personnel carriers, 1,626 armored fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 US-made MLRS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 103 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, 4 air defense radars, 32 engineering vehicles (including 13 obstacle-clearing vehicles, 1 UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, 9 armored recovery vehicles, and 1 command post vehicle). Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino in the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops near Tetkino in the Kursk region. FPV drones and artillery were used to neutralize the Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade are reportedly using drones to destroy Russian equipment in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying Russian equipment in the Kursk region with drones. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya in the Kursk region. The video shows the body of a North Korean lieutenant colonel, along with his weapons and equipment. New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka, in the Kursk region, discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: One drone is approaching Balakliya. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region. New groups of Russian drones are reported on the east and in the central part of the Kharkiv region, with a western/southwestern course.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. They have occupied the forest near Zapadne and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. On the right bank of the Oskol, Russian forces are continuing to push through Ukrainian defenses, expanding their control zone towards the western part of Dvurichna in the direction of Sahunivka. Fighting continues in the area of Zelenyi Hai, with Ukrainian forces attempting to improve their tactical position by attacking from Borova Andriivka.
Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have taken the initiative. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are reportedly suffering heavy losses. Russian forces struck an infrastructure facility in Kharkiv with drones. Enemy is intensely shelling Kupyansk with KABs, according to OVA. At least four private houses and power lines were damaged. Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka. In the Kharkiv region, a Russian soldier reportedly destroyed a group of 8 Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers with mines. They have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km. An 86-year-old woman was injured in Kupiansk due to Russian shelling. Russian forces are shelling Kupyansk with guided aerial bombs, damaging at least four private houses and power lines, according to the regional military administration. Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.

Other Regions

Drone Movements: Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 15 drones did not reach their targets and were "lost on location." Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region. Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov. Seven Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Belgorod region and Crimea in the past two hours, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone threat in the Zaporizhzhia region. New drone groups are reported in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, with a west/southwest course. Four mopeds are reported flying over Vysokopolye in the direction of Novyi Buh. Seven mopeds were reported flying north of Balakleya, heading west. One moped was reported heading towards/through Zlatopol, Kharkiv Oblast. Two mopeds were reported heading towards/through Balakleya. One moped was reported north of Slovyansk, heading southwest.
Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack in the Kyiv region, with two multi-story buildings and six cars damaged. A fire also broke out at an enterprise, covering an area of 600 square meters.
A fiber-optic cable between Latvia and Sweden has been damaged, likely due to external influence. The Latvian Navy has contacted NATO allies regarding the incident.
Sevastopol: Colonelcassad reports an air raid alert in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted. "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shares an image showing messages from "Чп / Севастополь" warning of ballistic missile launches from the Mykolaiv region towards western and northwestern Crimea, specifically Tarkhankut. STERNENKO Telegram channel reports on missile danger in occupied Crimea.
Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian forces report destroying over 500 enemy aerial targets in the past week, including 2 guided missiles, 375 "Shahed" drones, 71 reconnaissance drones, and 59 other types of drones. Russian forces attacked Nikopolshchyna more than 10 times during the day, using FPV drones and heavy artillery. A private house and two buses were damaged. A transport company was also damaged. A power line and an agricultural enterprise were damaged due to a previous attack in Synelnykivshchyna. Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Russian strike on Dnipropetrovsk, with significant damage to a power substation.
Odesa: 12 Geran drones reportedly hit the Danube port in the Odesa region overnight. Ukrainian units from the 18th Naval Security Detachment, 181st Battalion, and 122nd Territorial Defense Brigade were stationed at the port. A naval drone base was also located at the port. The headquarters of the naval security was completely destroyed, and the pier structures, storage facilities, and maintenance hangars were damaged.

Military Equipment

"Орешник" system: Lukashenko stated that the "Орешник" system will be deployed in Belarus closer to Smolensk. Lukashenko stated that the next "Орешник" installation will be delivered to Belarus even earlier than to Russia. Colonelcassad speculates about the possibility of Belarus receiving an ocean fleet and "Poseidon." The Russian state news agency TASS reported Lukashenko's statement about the "Орешник" system. A photo caption from "Дневник Десантника" states that "NATO Death - Oreshnik" will be delivered to Belarus any day now. Alex Parker Returns questions the purpose of Belarus's militarization and whether this military potential can be reversed later. Alex Parker Returns expresses concern about the possibility of a hostile regime change in Belarus in the future, potentially creating a nuclear state on Russia's borders. Alex Parker Returns criticizes the policy of demilitarizing Russia while militarizing Belarus under the "multi-vector" Lukashenko. Belarusian President Lukashenko announced that the hypersonic missile complex "Орешник" will be deployed in Belarus "any day now," even before it is delivered to Russia.
FPV drones: Video evidence shows Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold. "Butusov Plus" Telegram channel reports on the destruction of Russian ATVs, trucks, mortars, and infantry by the FPV group of the 3rd Assault Brigade. "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shows a video of an FPV drone strike on a hidden Russian tank, resulting in an epic detonation. "Бутусов Плюс" Telegram channel shares a video of a Russian commander berating a subordinate for communication failures, highlighting issues with discipline and morale within Russian units.
UAVs: Ukrainian forces from the 141st Mechanized Brigade are targeting enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones. Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack in the Kyiv region, with two multi-story buildings and six cars damaged. A fire also broke out at an enterprise, covering an area of 600 square meters. "Rybar" reports on where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing drones for launches against Russia. Ukrainian specialists have reportedly set up production using 3D printers, with parts supplied from the West and assembly taking place at factories in and around Kyiv. After assembly, drones were previously sent to Boryspil airport and the Antonov flight test base. However, due to increased Russian strikes on Kyiv, testing has been moved to a less noticeable airfield near Buzova, west of Kyiv. The location is convenient due to its proximity to a major highway, railway line, and a large wasteland for test flights. Another advantage of Buzova is the proximity of the Korostelevka airfield in the neighboring Zhytomyr region, where a UAV operator training center has been established. Video evidence confirms that a Russian Krasukha electronic warfare system was destroyed in Vasylivka, Kherson region. Ukrainian forces are using long-range attack UAVs An-196 "Lyutyy," reportedly with a range of 2000 km. Video evidence shows a soldier walking along a path while being tracked by a drone. The soldier drops several antipersonnel mines before being targeted and killed by a drone strike. The video is presented by the "Butusov Plus" Telegram channel as an example of the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations.

Geopolitical Developments

Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine, with Zelensky requesting a direct US presence.
Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
Bloomberg reports that European allies agree that the US should provide troops for any future peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
Preparation for direct negotiations between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump on a possible truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the only topic of discussion within the Politburo.
Part of the Russian leadership put forward a claim to the "Russian city of Narva" on the agenda of the negotiations.
Representatives of the Politburo were told that Trump intends to block all opportunities for Russia to bypass sanctions and "put an end to the gray fleet" that transports Russian oil products.
A telephone conversation between "Putin" and Trump could take place in the next three days.
The agreement on Ukraine was not reached because Zelensky wanted to fight.
Trump administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
China has reiterated its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine, as stated by the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the US, Liu Pengyu, in response to Trump's comments on expecting Beijing's assistance in resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
The EU has called the presidential elections in Belarus a "complete fake".
Saudi Arabia responded to Trump's proposal to collapse oil prices by stating that Riyadh is focused on "long-term stability of the oil market."
China responded to Trump's request for assistance in ending the war in Ukraine, stating that they are "ready to see all sides play a constructive role and create conditions for de-escalation and a political settlement of the crisis."
The heads of foreign affairs of 27 EU countries will discuss on January 27th the 16th package of sanctions against Russia and the use of its frozen assets, according to an EU representative.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Russia's demand for Ukraine to refuse to join NATO, stating that the architecture of European security is built on protection from Russia and that Russia has no say in this matter.
US Secretary of State Blinken removed the official statement on the non-recognition of the future presidential elections in Belarus.
NATO plans to share classified data on military production with the EU and defense industry representatives, according to Bloomberg.
Trump reportedly plans to hold a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, followed by discussions with Ukrainian authorities.
A potential meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin is proposed for February-early March 2025 to agree on the main parameters of a peace plan.
A ceasefire is proposed from April 20, 2025, with the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region.
An International Peace Conference is proposed for late April 2025 to formalize an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the US, China, select European countries, and "Global South" nations.
A prisoner exchange "all for all" is proposed for late April 2025.
A declaration on ending the war in Ukraine is proposed for May 9, 2025, with Ukraine not extending martial law or mobilization afterward.
Presidential elections in Ukraine are proposed for late August 2025, with parliamentary and local elections in late October 2025.
Ukraine would not join NATO and declare neutrality, with a NATO summit decision to prohibit Ukraine's entry.
Ukraine would join the EU by 2030, with the EU committing to post-war reconstruction.
Ukraine would not reduce its army size, and the US would continue supporting its modernization.
Ukraine would not recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories but would also refrain from military or diplomatic attempts to regain them.
Some sanctions against Russia would be lifted immediately after the agreement, others over three years based on compliance.
Restrictions on Russian energy imports to the EU would be removed, but subject to a special duty to fund Ukraine's reconstruction.
Parties supporting the Russian language and peaceful coexistence with Russia would be allowed in Ukrainian elections. Actions against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Russian language would cease.
The issue of a European peacekeeping contingent is highlighted as problematic, with Ukraine demanding it and Russia opposing it.
Europe is reportedly preparing for the "most extreme" military scenario due to concerns about a potential "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance, according to NBC News.
European governments fear that Russia may target them after Ukraine, especially if the US under a new administration does not provide support.
Lithuania plans to mine bridges leading to Russia and is prepared to destroy them if Russian tanks attempt to cross. They have also stockpiled "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles.
NATO ships are reportedly searching the Baltic Sea for Russia's "shadow fleet," accused of cutting underwater communication cables.
Plans are underway to build a large-scale anti-missile defense system in Europe, similar to Israel's "Iron Dome."
Norway has updated its emergency preparedness brochure for citizens, outlining how much water, food, and other supplies to stockpile in case of "military action."
Germany has allocated around 100 million euros to restore public sirens that were dismantled after the fall of the "Iron Curtain."
Swedish church authorities, at the direction of the armed forces, have begun searching for additional cemetery space in case the conflict reaches their shores.
Concerns are widespread that a new US president might not defend historic NATO allies if they are attacked by Russia.
Turkey intends to help the EU replace gas transit through Ukraine, according to the Turkish ambassador to the EU, Faruk Kaymakcı. He stated that Turkey has the Southern Gas Corridor with 18 billion cubic meters of gas, mostly from Azerbaijan, and that it can be easily expanded by connecting it to Mediterranean gas.
Reports indicate a potential shift in the political landscape of Belarus, with incumbent President Lukashenko claiming a landslide victory in the recent elections, securing 87.6% of the vote according to exit polls.
There is speculation about a potential "100-day plan" for Ukraine, attributed to former US President Trump, which has been published in the media.
Europe is reportedly preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict, with concerns about a possible "Trump-Putin 2.0" alliance and a reduction in US support under a new administration.
The leader of the Belarusian opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has outlined potential windows of opportunity for regime change in Belarus. She suggests that the end of the conflict in Ukraine, with a Ukrainian victory, could be one such opportunity. She also emphasizes the importance of providing Ukraine with all possible support for victory.
US President Trump has imposed harsh measures against Colombia for refusing to accept flights with illegal immigrants. These measures include a 25% tariff on all goods from Colombia, increasing to 50% after a week. Colombian officials are also banned from entering the US. Trump has stated that these measures are "just the beginning."

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to make significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region, with the confirmed capture of Velyka Novosilka representing a major setback for Ukraine. The escalating drone warfare, with increased activity across multiple regions, confirmed attacks inside Russia, and a massive overnight attack with 72 drones, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new reports of drone movements towards Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, the confirmed drone attack in Kharkiv, drone activity in the northwestern part of Kyiv Oblast, and the threat of attack drones in Chernihiv Oblast indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the drone conflict. The new report of a drone heading towards Starokostiantyniv is concerning. The use of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast and the deployment of electronic warfare equipment to the front lines indicate continued Russian military activity and technological advancements. The new report of a Ukrainian drone attack on Ryazan, potentially targeting an oil refinery, highlights the continued vulnerability of Russian infrastructure. The new report of 15 Ukrainian drones shot down over Russian territory indicates the effectiveness of Russian air defenses but also highlights the scale of the drone threat. The new information about the naval situation in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas indicates a significant Russian naval presence, particularly in the Mediterranean, with a substantial number of Kalibr missiles ready to be launched. The new reports of Russian forces destroying two Ukrainian naval drones approaching Crimea and the main bunch of Ukrainian naval drones waiting for Russian helicopters highlight the ongoing naval conflict in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Air Force's report of Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeast axis and the threat of air attacks on front-line regions indicate a potential escalation in air operations. The new report of guided aerial bombs being launched on Sumy Oblast indicates a potential escalation in air operations. The new video evidence showing residents of Makhnovka, in the Kursk region, discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers adds a new dimension to the conflict in the region. The new report of a Russian strike on a power substation in Dnipropetrovsk highlights the ongoing targeting of critical infrastructure.

The geopolitical developments, including the US aid suspension, President Trump's statements, the call from the Chinese embassy for the US to disclose information on its biolabs, and the Saudi-Russian arms deal further complicate the situation for Ukraine. The video evidence of Russian forces storming Ukrainian positions near Belohorivka, destroying a Ukrainian BMP-2 near Zarichne, and discovering advanced, hard-to-detect mines near Vuhledar highlights the intensity of the fighting, continued Russian advances, and the evolving tactics being employed. The footage of the Orlan-10 UAV in operation underscores the continued importance of reconnaissance in Russian military operations. The new video evidence of a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region demonstrates the ongoing threat to Ukrainian armor. The new reports of Russian paratroopers using BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers and UAV units using FPV drones in Chasiv Yar indicate the continued intensity of the fighting in that area. The forced mobilization video from Ukraine suggests internal issues with recruitment and public support. The new report of a Russian drone attack on Sumy highlights the ongoing threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The analysis from The Times outlining four potential scenarios for the end of the war underscores the uncertainty and the possibility of a protracted conflict. The new video evidence of Russian artillerymen targeting Ukrainian forces near the Sukhi Yaly River demonstrates the continued use of artillery in the conflict. The new statement from Tsikhanouskaya about potential regime change in Belarus adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical situation. The new measures imposed by Trump against Colombia, including tariffs and travel bans, indicate a significant escalation in tensions between the two countries.

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly critical, given the reported 48 assault actions and the capture of a Ukrainian soldier from the US-trained 153rd Brigade. Address the threat to the left flank of the Pokrovsk sector posed by the Russian assault on Kotlyno.
Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: Now that the settlement is lost, focus on conducting rearguard actions in the surrounding areas to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize the protection

Situation Report