Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 26, 2025, 15:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces solidifying their positions and continuing advances across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting. Velyka Novosilka has been confirmed as fully captured by Russian forces, marking a significant strategic victory. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces, reportedly supported by North Korean soldiers, regaining territory. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive use by both sides. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian assets with drones, including oil refineries and military facilities deep inside Russia. The EU is considering a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission, potentially involving troops from outside Europe, though skepticism exists regarding the feasibility of such a plan.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka:
- Confirmed to be under complete Russian control by the Russian Ministry of Defense and multiple sources, including "Voin DV," Kots, and "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny." The 5th Guards Tank Brigade and the 40th Guards Marine Brigade are credited with the capture.
- Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian forces out of the settlement entirely.
- Ukrainian forces report that there is no danger of encirclement of their troops and that fighting continues in the city, contradicting the Russian claim of full control. The 110th Brigade claims to be inflicting heavy losses on Russian infantry and that they have not completely retreated from the city. The river "Mokri Yaly" is now a defensive barrier for Russian forces.
- Video evidence shows the coordinated actions of the 40th Separate Guards Brigade, including artillery, tanks, FPV drones, and the "Storm" assault detachment during the liberation.
- The "Voin DV" Telegram channel reports on the ongoing liberation of Velyka Novosilka by the "Vostok" group, sharing footage of the 40th Guards Brigade's advance and soldiers raising six flags in various parts of the town.
- Combined actions of the 5th Tank Brigade of the 36th Army and the 40th Marine Brigade completed the liberation, defeating the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to break through the border near Tetkino in the morning but were repelled by Russian paratroopers and other units.
- Video evidence shows the density of strikes using various means of fire, from drones to heavy flamethrower systems, during the battles for Velyka Novosilka.
Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line.
- Positional fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line.
- Russian forces are reportedly within 3 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
- "Operatsiya Z: Voenkor" reports that the "Otvazhnye" forces have occupied new territories and almost broken through to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway on the right flank near Pokrovsk.
- Russian forces are complicating Ukrainian logistics north of Pokrovsk. FPV drones are reportedly active in Rodynske, near the T-05-15 highway.
- Ukrainian military sources indicate Russian forces are advancing on both sides of Pokrovsk to cut off supply routes and encircle the city.
- Video evidence shows tank crews of the "Гром" battalion of the Altai 35th brigade of the Central Military District reportedly destroying the enemy's defenses on a daily basis, supporting the offensive of the "Струна" battalion of the "Center" group of troops in the Pokrovsk direction.
- MO RF officially reports the liberation of Zelenoye in the Pokrovsk direction.
- Video evidence shows a unit of the "Sudoplatov" battalion using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian transport, including a "camouflaged" pickup truck with an electronic warfare system, on the western outskirts of Pokrovsk.
Chasiv Yar:
- Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district.
- Fighting in the Severnyi district.
- Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts from the north side of the railway and have launched an offensive south of the railway station.
- After clearing the workshops of the refractory plant, battles have shifted to the area west of Workshop No. 1.
- Russian forces launched an offensive south of the railway station, expanding their control after artillery shelling near Dniprovsky Pond.
Kurakhove:
- Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
- Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
- They have reportedly advanced in the southern part of Novоandriivka and occupied several forest strips south of Ukrainka.
- Video evidence shows a soldier with the call sign "Ayvengo" and his comrades eliminating a Russian soldier near Kurakhove.
- Fighting is reported near Dachnoe. A Russian infantry attack was repelled. Russian forces have extended their control zone by 400 meters along the Kurakhove-Dachnoe road.
Toretsk:
- Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control.
- Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.
- In the Krymske area, Russian forces advanced 400 meters, reaching new positions on the northern outskirts of the settlement.
Other Locations:
- Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
- Zverevo: Fighting continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces.
- Solone: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
- Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Video evidence shows a FAB-1500 strike on a temporary deployment point of the 5th Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Novodmitrovka.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.
Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
In the direction of Hrekivka Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
Near Kolodyazi there are active assault operations.
Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.
North of Kupiansk on the right bank of the Oskil River, units of the "West" group have liberated the settlement of Zakhidne.
Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory.
Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruhlenke failed.
Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurylivka.
Russian forces report that Nikolayevo-Daryino is under their control.
Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnivka.
In the area of Kruhlenke/Viktorivka, Russian assault units have entered Viktorivka and are attempting to establish a foothold.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have inflicted damage in the Kursk region amounting to 750 billion rubles.
About 1,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been killed in the region while fighting against Ukraine.
British intelligence reports that approximately 4,000 North Korean soldiers were killed in the region.
From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction.
Russian forces have reportedly fully liberated Nikolayevo-Daryino.
Russian naval infantry are reportedly continuing to engage Ukrainian forces in Kurylivka.
Ukrainian forces are reportedly increasing their presence in the Sudzha border area.
A coordination council has been created in the Kursk region to address the problems of residents in the border areas.
Ukrainian servicemen of the "Chernomorskaya Sech" battalion are accused of committing terrorist acts in the region.
Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya.
A Russian Ka-52M helicopter conducted strikes on Ukrainian armor and personnel in the Kursk border area.
Video evidence confirms the complete liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
A Russian Lancet loitering munition targeted a US-supplied M1 Abrams tank near Viktorivka.
North Korea has announced an increase in military spending for 2025.
The acting governor of the Kursk region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area.
Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south, fighting is going on near Kurylivka.
Russian aviation struck with FAB-3000 in the north-eastern part of Sudzha and the northern outskirts of Honcharivka.
Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones.
"Дневник Десантника" reports that the enemy suffered losses of about 360 people in the Kursk region in the past day, and five people surrendered.
"Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area.
In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south.
Russian aviation struck with FAB-3000 in the north-eastern part of Sudzha and the northern outskirts of Honcharivka.
Western officials cited by the BBC report that about 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region.
South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed in the region.
A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled.
Reports of an American mercenary known as "Doctor Death" being captured by Russian forces in the Kursk region.
"Архангел Спецназа" Telegram channel announced a fundraising campaign to purchase another "Буханка" vehicle for a Russian airborne unit.
The Republic of Buryatia is reportedly ready to supply large batches of the "Courier" ground robotic complex (НРТК) to the troops, which is capable of autonomous fire.
Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
Video details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows drone pilots engaging a target in the Kursk region border area.
New video shows a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
Video shows a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
New video shows Ukrainian soldiers interrogating a captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region using Google Translate.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck transporting Ukrainian militants to the contact line in the Kursk region. The driver reportedly managed to detect the drone and attempted to escape, but the vehicle and personnel were destroyed.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: One drone is approaching Balakliya. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. They have occupied the forest near Zapadne and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
On the right bank of the Oskol, Russian forces are continuing to push through Ukrainian defenses, expanding their control zone towards the western part of Dvurichna in the direction of Sahunivka.
Fighting continues in the area of Zelenyi Hai, with Ukrainian forces attempting to improve their tactical position by attacking from Borova Andriivka.
Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions.
Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have taken the initiative. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are reportedly suffering heavy losses.
Russian forces struck an infrastructure facility in Kharkiv with drones.
"Butusov Plus" Telegram channel reports on the destruction of Russian ATVs, trucks, mortars, and infantry by the FPV group of the 3rd Assault Brigade near Kharkiv.
Enemy is intensely shelling Kupyansk with KABs, according to OVA. At least four private houses and power lines were damaged.

Other Regions

Drone Movements:
- Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 15 drones did not reach their targets and were "lost on location."
- Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
- Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
An enemy aircraft-type UAV was detected and destroyed by air defense forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense over the Bryansk region. There were no casualties or damage.
Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack in the Kyiv region, with two multi-story buildings and six cars damaged. A fire also broke out at an enterprise, covering an area of 600 square meters.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian howitzer with a Lancet loitering munition near Konstantinivka.
In the center of Energodar, a Ukrainian drone was shot down while attempting to attack the city. The detonation occurred in the sky, and there were no casualties or damage, according to the acting mayor of the city, Maxim Pukhov.
A fiber-optic cable between Latvia and Sweden has been damaged, likely due to external influence. The Latvian Navy has contacted NATO allies regarding the incident.
An Airbus A321 aircraft flying from Moscow to Sochi made an emergency landing in Saratov due to an engine failure.
Sevastopol:
- Colonelcassad reports an air raid alert in Sevastopol, with maritime transport halted.
- "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shares an image showing messages from "Чп / Севастополь" warning of ballistic missile launches from the Mykolaiv region towards western and northwestern Crimea, specifically Tarkhankut.
- STERNENKO Telegram channel reports on missile danger in occupied Crimea.

Military Equipment

"Орешник" system:
- Lukashenko stated that the "Орешник" system will be deployed in Belarus closer to Smolensk.
- Lukashenko stated that the next "Орешник" installation will be delivered to Belarus even earlier than to Russia.
- Colonelcassad reports that after the Wagner PMC and nuclear weapons, Belarus under Lukashenko has also received the "Орешник."
- Colonelcassad speculates about the possibility of Belarus receiving an ocean fleet and "Poseidon."
- The Russian state news agency TASS reported Lukashenko's statement about the "Орешник" system.
- A photo caption from "Дневник Десантника" states that "NATO Death - Oreshnik" will be delivered to Belarus any day now.
- Alex Parker Returns questions the purpose of Belarus's militarization and whether this military potential can be reversed later.
- Alex Parker Returns expresses concern about the possibility of a hostile regime change in Belarus in the future, potentially creating a nuclear state on Russia's borders.
- Alex Parker Returns criticizes the policy of demilitarizing Russia while militarizing Belarus under the "multi-vector" Lukashenko.
FPV drones:
- Video evidence shows Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
- Video evidence shows a group of operators from the FPV GВ "North" chasing an enemy tank in the Kursk border area.
- Video evidence shows an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area.
- "Butusov Plus" Telegram channel reports on the destruction of Russian ATVs, trucks, mortars, and infantry by the FPV group of the 3rd Assault Brigade.
- "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shows a video of an FPV drone strike on a hidden Russian tank, resulting in an epic detonation.
- "Бутусов Плюс" Telegram channel shares a video of a Russian commander berating a subordinate for communication failures, highlighting issues with discipline and morale within Russian units.
UAVs:
- Ukrainian forces from the 141st Mechanized Brigade are targeting enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones.
- An enemy aircraft-type UAV was detected and destroyed by air defense forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense over the Bryansk region. There were no casualties or damage.
- Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack in the Kyiv region, with two multi-story buildings and six cars damaged. A fire also broke out at an enterprise, covering an area of 600 square meters.
- In the center of Energodar, a Ukrainian drone was shot down while attempting to attack the city. The detonation occurred in the sky, and there were no casualties or damage, according to the acting mayor of the city, Maxim Pukhov.
- "Rybar" reports on where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing drones for launches against Russia. Ukrainian specialists have reportedly set up production using 3D printers, with parts supplied from the West and assembly taking place at factories in and around Kyiv. After assembly, drones were previously sent to Boryspil airport and the Antonov flight test base. However, due to increased Russian strikes on Kyiv, testing has been moved to a less noticeable airfield near Buzova, west of Kyiv. The location is convenient due to its proximity to a major highway, railway line, and a large wasteland for test flights. Another advantage of Buzova is the proximity of the Korostelevka airfield in the neighboring Zhytomyr region, where a UAV operator training center has been established
Video evidence confirms that a Russian Krasukha electronic warfare system was destroyed in Vasylivka, Kherson region.
Ukrainian forces are using long-range attack UAVs An-196 "Lyutyy," reportedly with a range of 2000 km.
A Mi-28NM helicopter conducted a missile strike on Ukrainian military personnel in the Kursk border region.

Geopolitical Developments

Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine, with Zelensky requesting a direct US presence.
Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
Bloomberg reports that European allies agree that the US should provide troops for any future peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
Preparation for direct negotiations between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump on a possible truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the only topic of discussion within the Politburo.
Part of the Russian leadership put forward a claim to the "Russian city of Narva" on the agenda of the negotiations.
Representatives of the Politburo were told that Trump intends to block all opportunities for Russia to bypass sanctions and "put an end to the gray fleet" that transports Russian oil products.
A telephone conversation between "Putin" and Trump could take place in the next three days.
The agreement on Ukraine was not reached because Zelensky wanted to fight.
Trump administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
China has reiterated its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine, as stated by the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the US, Liu Pengyu, in response to Trump's comments on expecting Beijing's assistance in resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
The EU has called the presidential elections in Belarus a "complete fake".
Saudi Arabia responded to Trump's proposal to collapse oil prices by stating that Riyadh is focused on "long-term stability of the oil market."
China responded to Trump's request for assistance in ending the war in Ukraine, stating that they are "ready to see all sides play a constructive role and create conditions for de-escalation and a political settlement of the crisis."
The heads of foreign affairs of 27 EU countries will discuss on January 27th the 16th package of sanctions against Russia and the use of its frozen assets, according to an EU representative.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply responded to Russia's demand for Ukraine to refuse to join NATO, stating that the architecture of European security is built on protection from Russia and that Russia has no say in this matter.
US Secretary of State Blinken removed the official statement on the non-recognition of the future presidential elections in Belarus.
NATO plans to share classified data on military production with the EU and defense industry representatives, according to Bloomberg.
Trump reportedly plans to hold a phone call with Putin in late January or early February, followed by discussions with Ukrainian authorities.
A potential meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin is proposed for February-early March 2025 to agree on the main parameters of a peace plan.
A ceasefire is proposed from April 20, 2025, with the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region.
An International Peace Conference is proposed for late April 2025 to formalize an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the US, China, European countries, and the "global south."
A declaration of the end of the war is proposed by May 9, 2025, with Ukraine lifting martial law and mobilization.
Presidential elections in Ukraine are proposed for late August 2025, followed by parliamentary and local elections in late October.
Proposed parameters of the agreement include Ukraine declaring neutrality, not joining NATO, and maintaining its army with US support.
Ukraine would join the EU by 2030, with the EU responsible for post-war reconstruction.
Ukraine would not recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories but would refrain from military attempts to regain them.
Some sanctions against Russia would be lifted after the agreement, with others phased out over three years.
Restrictions on imports of Russian energy carriers to the EU would be lifted, but subject to a special duty to fund Ukraine's reconstruction.
Parties advocating for the Russian language and peaceful coexistence with Russia would be allowed to participate in Ukrainian elections.
The issue of a European peacekeeping contingent is considered problematic and requires further consultations.
Yermak dismissed the 100-day peace plan as a fake.
Trump believes the US will gain control of Greenland.
According to Trump, 57,000 residents of Greenland want to join the US.
Trump believes it would be "very unfriendly" for Denmark not to allow the US to take over Greenland.
Trump added that the US is the only one capable of ensuring freedom.
All projects and funding of the American agency USAID in Ukraine have been suspended.
The "Suspilne" media outlet reports that Ukrainian organizations are receiving letters to suspend activities funded by USAID or organizations dependent on US funding.
The USAID office in Kyiv has no information on how the State Department directive will be implemented or if there will be exceptions.
Lukashenko stated that the "Орешник" system will be deployed in Belarus closer to Smolensk.
Lukashenko stated that the next "Орешник" installation will be delivered to Belarus even earlier than to Russia.
Colonelcassad reports that after the Wagner PMC and nuclear weapons, Belarus under Lukashenko has also received the "Орешник."
Colonelcassad speculates about the possibility of Belarus receiving an ocean fleet and "Poseidon."
The Russian state news agency TASS reported Lukashenko's statement about the "Орешник" system.
A photo caption from "Дневник Десантника" states that "NATO Death - Oreshnik" will be delivered to Belarus any day now.
The image shows Alexander Lukashenko.
Prikhodko stated that the man was wounded after a submunition detonated in Horlivka, Donetsk People's Republic.
Trump is reportedly trying to command countries, including those in the Middle East, according to Basurin.
Trump reportedly told reporters that Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab countries should accept more Palestinian refugees to "restore order" in the Gaza Strip.
Trump reportedly instructed the Pentagon to lift Biden's ban on the supply of 1,800 American MK-84 bombs to Israel.
Trump reportedly expressed doubt that the "ceasefire in Gaza will last long."
According to FT, high-ranking US officials reportedly asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to exclude Ukraine from the list of countries whose financial aid was frozen.
The South Korean president has been impeached.
US may announce a "big reward" for Taliban leaders, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This is due to information that more Americans are being held captive by the Taliban than previously known.
NATO has begun sharing classified information with defense companies and the EU, according to Bloomberg. The transfer of such data will require consensus among NATO countries. It is expected that agreement on procedures may take several months.
The EU may allow a UN-mandated mission to control the ceasefire in Ukraine, involving soldiers from outside Europe. However, the head of the EU Military Committee considers Trump's plan to quickly end the war in Ukraine "unlikely."

Humanitarian Situation

Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
A missing 18-year-old soldier, Rodionov Dmitry, is being searched for by relatives. He went missing on January 19, 2025, near Pokrovsk after assault operations.
A fundraising campaign is underway for salaries of ASTRA employees in January. ASTRA is an independent Russian-language publication that was launched after the start of the war.
The image shows a request for donations for ASTRA, a Russian independent media outlet, showing that they are dependent on donations.
All children have been evacuated from Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, according to the city's military administration. The evacuation is taking place amid the advance of Russian troops, who are five kilometers from the city center. Before the war, the population of the Pokrovsk urban agglomeration was about 380 thousand people. Now about 10 thousand residents remain.
An 86-year-old woman was injured in Kupiansk due to Russian shelling.

Military Movements

Tetkino, Kursk region:
- Video message from the "Kots" Telegram channel reports on a Ukrainian reconnaissance-in-force operation near Tetkino, which was repelled by Russian drone operators and artillery.
- "Kots" suggests that such attempts will increase as Russian forces approach Sudzha, as the Ukrainian command fears a Russian offensive in the Sumy region if they retreat from the Kursk region.
- "Kots" identifies Tetkino, Rylsky, and Khomutovsky districts, as well as the Bryansk region's border with the Shostkinsky district of the Sumy region, as likely directions for Ukrainian provocations.
- "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to break through the border near Tetkino in the morning but were repelled by Russian paratroopers and other units.
- The video shows the destruction of Ukrainian "MaxxPro" armored vehicles during the attempted breakthrough.
Ryazan oil refinery:
- "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel releases a promo video from the 14th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles of the Special Forces about the recent attack on the Ryazan oil refinery.
- The video shows explosions and fires at the refinery, as well as social media posts about the attack.

Updated Assessment

The capture of Velyka Novosilka represents a significant Russian victory, opening potential avenues for further advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk remains critical, with Russian forces closing in on the city. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are under immense pressure. The continued fighting in the Kursk region, coupled with reports of North Korean involvement, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. Drone warfare continues to be a major factor, with both sides utilizing UAVs for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks deep within enemy territory. The potential for a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission, while still uncertain, introduces a new element into the geopolitical landscape. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with ongoing evacuations and civilian casualties. The damage to the fiber-optic cable between Latvia and Sweden raises concerns about potential sabotage and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.

Situation Report