Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 26, 2025, 04:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining their offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. The capture of strategic locations like Velyka Novosilka and the intense fighting around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk underscore the severity of the situation for Ukrainian forces. Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with increased activity across multiple Ukrainian oblasts and confirmed attacks inside Russia. New reports indicate further Russian advances, the discovery of advanced mines near Vuhledar, and continued drone attacks in Kharkiv. The confirmed 90-day suspension of most US foreign aid adds a layer of complexity, potentially impacting Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts severely. Restrictions have been introduced at the airports of Izhevsk and Kazan due to suspected drone activity, and these restrictions are confirmed to be ongoing. New drone movements have been reported, heading towards Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi. A new attack on Ryazan has been reported, with a fire potentially at an oil refinery.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: The encirclement is complete, with Russian forces controlling over 70% of the settlement. Ukrainian troops are blocked, and the escape route towards Blagodatnoye is cut off. Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian positions within the settlement with artillery.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line to the city. A damaged and abandoned Ukrainian M113 APC was reported in the Pokrovsk direction. The situation is dire, with 48 assault actions reported, indicating a major Russian offensive.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. They are fighting in the Severnyi district.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. 14 enemy attacks were repelled.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. Video evidence confirms Russian advances near Toretsk.
• Belohorivka: Video evidence shows Russian forces storming Ukrainian positions near Belohorivka, clearing trenches and destroying enemy forces.
• Vuhledar: Russian sappers have discovered mines made with 3D printers, which are difficult to detect with metal detectors. They have reportedly neutralized over a thousand explosive devices in the area since the beginning of 2025.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple oblasts (Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia).
• Three drones are reported in the north of Kyiv Oblast, moving into Zhytomyr Oblast.
• A drone is reported in the southern part of Chernihiv Oblast, with a westward course.
• A drone was reported heading towards Kharkiv from the north.
• A drone was reported heading towards Pereiaslav from the southwest.
• The mayor of Kharkiv confirmed a drone attack on the city, with one strike hitting a private building in the Osnovianskyi district. Initial reports indicate no casualties, but windows, roof, and part of the building were damaged.
• Drone movement reported towards Zhytomyr from the northeast.
• Drones reported in the northwestern part of Kyiv Oblast, with a westward course.
• Drones reported in the northern part of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a southward course.
• New: Drone movement reported towards Zhytomyr from the north.
• New: Drones are moving from Zhytomyr Oblast towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast.

Drone Attacks in Russia

• Explosions and fires were reported in Ryazan due to drone attacks. Russian air defense systems are actively engaging drones, with several confirmed destroyed.
• Restrictions on aircraft operations are still in effect at the airports of Izhevsk and Kazan, reportedly due to the detection of unknown drones.
• New: Ukrainian forces attacked Ryazan again overnight, targeting an oil refinery.

Kharkiv

• An explosion was heard in Kharkiv, correlating with earlier reports of drone activity in the area. The mayor confirmed a drone attack, with one strike hitting a private building in the Osnovianskyi district, causing damage but no reported casualties.

Luhansk

• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces storming Ukrainian positions near Belohorivka, clearing trenches and destroying enemy forces.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has halted most foreign aid for 90 days. President Trump confirmed the freeze on new aid to other countries.
• US-Russia Relations: President Trump confirmed he still plans to talk to President Putin and expressed confidence that the US will acquire Greenland.
• A military correspondent for The Times, Anthony Lloyd, suggested four possible ways the conflict in Ukraine could end: military defeat of Ukraine, Ukraine giving up some territories, freezing the conflict, or significantly increasing military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

Military Actions

• The Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of the assault on a Ukrainian stronghold by soldiers of the "Center" group and a video showing the operation of an Orlan-10 UAV.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP-2 near Zarichne.
• Video evidence shows Russian sappers discovering mines near Vuhledar made with 3D printers, which are difficult to detect with metal detectors. The sappers have reportedly neutralized over a thousand explosive devices in the area since the beginning of 2025.
• The "yellow" level of air threat has been lifted in an unspecified location.
• Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast.
• Electronic warfare equipment (EW) has been purchased and sent to the front for a Russian reconnaissance unit operating in the northeastern sector, thanks to donations from readers of the Colonelcassad channel and Boris Rozhin.
• New: Video evidence shows a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to make significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The complete encirclement of Velyka Novosilka and the critical situation in Pokrovsk represent major setbacks for Ukraine. The escalating drone warfare, with increased activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks inside Russia, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new reports of drone movements towards Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, the confirmed drone attack in Kharkiv, and drone activity in the northwestern part of Kyiv Oblast indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the drone conflict. Restrictions at Izhevsk and Kazan airports remain in place, suggesting a continued drone threat within Russia. The lifting of the "yellow" level of air threat, while positive, does not diminish the overall threat level. The use of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast and the deployment of electronic warfare equipment to the front lines indicate continued Russian military activity and technological advancements. The new report of a Ukrainian drone attack on Ryazan, potentially targeting an oil refinery, highlights the continued vulnerability of Russian infrastructure.

The geopolitical developments, including the US aid suspension and President Trump's statements, further complicate the situation for Ukraine. The video evidence of Russian forces storming Ukrainian positions near Belohorivka, destroying a Ukrainian BMP-2 near Zarichne, and discovering advanced, hard-to-detect mines near Vuhledar highlights the intensity of the fighting, continued Russian advances, and the evolving tactics being employed. The footage of the Orlan-10 UAV in operation underscores the continued importance of reconnaissance in Russian military operations. The new video evidence of a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region demonstrates the ongoing threat to Ukrainian armor.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly critical.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: With the encirclement complete, focus on conducting rearguard actions in Velyka Novosilka to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets. Address the new drone threats in Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts and the northwestern part of Kyiv Oblast.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas under threat, including Kharkiv and regions targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks.
5. Address Logistical Challenges: Secure supply lines and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines.
6. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems. Address the confirmed 90-day suspension of US aid and explore alternative funding sources.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
8. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
9. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements, particularly the reported movements in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas.
10. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the confirmed shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding the 90-day aid freeze to Ukraine and the statement about the US potentially acquiring Greenland. Urgently engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support and explore alternative funding sources.
11. Intelligence Gathering: Utilize all available intelligence assets to gather information about Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions. Analyze the footage of the Orlan-10 UAV operation to gain insights into Russian reconnaissance tactics and capabilities.
12. Adapt to Asymmetric Warfare: The increasing use of improvised drones, 3D-printed mines, and other asymmetric tactics by both sides requires a flexible and adaptive approach to warfare. Develop and implement tactics that can effectively counter these threats while also leveraging similar capabilities to gain an advantage.
13. Leverage Technological Advantages: Continue to invest in and develop advanced military technologies, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, electronic warfare, and cyber warfare.
14. Train and Equip Troops: Ensure that Ukrainian troops are adequately trained and equipped to deal with the evolving threats on the battlefield, including training in counter-drone operations, urban warfare, and the use of advanced weaponry. This includes training on detecting and neutralizing mines made with 3D printers.
15. Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously monitor the situation on the ground and adjust strategies and tactics accordingly. The fluid and dynamic nature of the conflict requires a high degree of flexibility and adaptability.
16. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The ongoing conflict has the potential to escalate further, particularly if new weapons systems are introduced or if the conflict spills over into neighboring countries. Develop contingency plans to address potential escalation scenarios.
17. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Given the continued targeting of critical infrastructure by both sides, enhance the protection of key facilities, such as power plants, oil refineries, and transportation hubs.
18. Address the Humanitarian Situation: Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
19. Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts. This includes assessing the damage to infrastructure, developing plans for rebuilding, and securing funding for these efforts.
20. Maintain International Solidarity: Continue to work with international partners to maintain solidarity and support for Ukraine. This includes diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia, economic sanctions, and military assistance.
21. Seek a Negotiated Solution: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, explore opportunities for a negotiated solution to the conflict. Analyze the four potential scenarios outlined by The Times military correspondent and develop strategies for each.
22. Respond to the Situation in Kharkiv: Investigate the cause of the explosion in Kharkiv and assess the extent of the damage. Deploy emergency response teams and provide assistance to any affected civilians. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter potential future attacks.
23. Counter Russian Advances near Belohorivka: Deploy additional troops and anti-tank weapons to counter Russian advances near Belohorivka. Utilize the intelligence gathered from the video evidence to target and neutralize Russian forces.
24. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: The report indicating potential weaknesses in Russian tactics, particularly their difficulty in securing captured positions and hiding vehicles ineffectively, should be exploited. Launch counterattacks to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian advances.
25. Analyze the new six-legged robot: Though currently being tested for civilian use, the development of a six-legged robot capable of carrying heavy loads and operating in extreme cold should be closely monitored for potential military applications. Its ability to traverse difficult terrain could make it useful for logistics or reconnaissance.
26. Develop Counter-Mine Measures: Given the discovery of mines made with 3D printers, invest in research and development of advanced mine detection technologies that can identify mines with minimal metal components. Train sappers on new techniques for detecting and neutralizing these types of mines.
27. Address Possible Drone Activity near Izhevsk and Kazan: Investigate the reasons for the continued restrictions imposed at the airports of Izhevsk and Kazan. Assess the potential threat of drone activity in these areas and take appropriate measures to ensure the safety of air travel. Deploy air defense systems if necessary.
28. Assess Impact of EW Deployment: Monitor the impact of the newly deployed electronic warfare equipment on the northeastern front. Gather intelligence on its effectiveness in disrupting Ukrainian operations and protecting Russian troops.
29. Analyze Video of Orlan-10 UAV Operation: Study the footage of the Orlan-10 UAV operation released by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Analyze the tactics, techniques, and procedures used by the Russian forces to gain insights into their reconnaissance and targeting capabilities.
30. Monitor Situation in Sumy Oblast: Given the report of Russian guided aerial bombs being launched on Sumy Oblast, enhance air defense measures in the region and monitor the situation closely. Provide early warning to civilians and deploy rapid response units to intercept any incoming threats.
31. Clarify Lifting of "Yellow" Air Threat Level: Obtain more information about the location where the "yellow" level of air threat has been lifted. Assess the implications for that specific area and determine if any adjustments to troop deployments or security measures are necessary.
32. Respond to the New Attack on Ryazan: Investigate the reports of a new Ukrainian drone attack on Ryazan, particularly the potential targeting of an oil refinery. Assess the damage and deploy emergency response teams if necessary. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter future attacks.
33. Analyze Video of Tank Destruction in Kursk Region: Study the video evidence of a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region. Analyze the tactics used and gather intelligence on the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones against Ukrainian armor.

These recommendations are based on the current situation and available information. The situation is constantly evolving, and recommendations may need to be adjusted accordingly.