Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 26, 2025, 01:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical and dynamic. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure, achieving significant breakthroughs across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is complete, with Russian artillery from the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group targeting Ukrainian strongholds within the settlement. Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar remain focal points of intense fighting, with Russian forces within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and having captured about half of Chasiv Yar's urban area. Drone warfare is escalating, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russia, including a second fire at an oil refinery in Ryazan. The US has suspended most foreign aid for 90 days, adding pressure on Ukraine to secure alternative support.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement, effectively liquidating the "southern cauldron."
  • Ukrainian troops are blocked, with the escape route towards Blagodatnoye cut off.
  • Russian forces control over 70% of the settlement.
  • New: Video evidence shows Russian artillery from the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group targeting Ukrainian strongholds within Velyka Novosilka.

• Pokrovsk:

  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing.
  • They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
  • Heavy fighting continues, with 48 assault actions reported.
  • Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Russian forces continue to advance, controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
  • They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district.
  • Video evidence shows fighting in Chasiv Yar involving the "Española" brigade, the 98th Airborne Division, and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade.
  • Russian forces are making advances in Toretsk.

• Kurakhove:

  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
  • 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Ulakly and Konstantinopol.
  • Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ulakly.
  • Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Dachne.
  • Russian forces are making advances near Uspenivka, Udachne, and Kotlyne.
  • Heavy fighting is reported between Pishchane and Zvir.

• Toretsk:

  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed; less than 15% of the city remains under their control.
  • Video evidence confirms Russian advances and the effectiveness of their drone warfare, including the destruction of a Ukrainian tank.
  • The 132nd brigade continues to target Ukrainian vehicles near Toretsk.
  • Russian forces have made further advances.

Other Regions

• Drone Movements:

  • Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Lipetsk.
  • Three additional drones reported near Vylkove/Kiliya, one approaching Vylkove.
  • Four drones south of Berdychiv, heading west.
  • Two drones circling east of Vinnytsia.
  • One drone west of Korosten, heading west.
  • Five new drones through Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast.
  • New: An explosion was heard in Sumy.
  • New: One drone reported south of Shepetivka moving into Rivne Oblast.
  • New: One drone south of Khmelnytskyi, heading towards Starokostiantyniv.
  • New: One drone from Vinnytsia Oblast heading towards Starokostiantyniv.
  • New: Four drones heading towards Sumy.
  • New: Two drones in the north of Poltava Oblast, heading west.
  • New: Two drones circling east of Chernihiv.
  • Drone strikes reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Sumy, and Cherkasy oblasts.
  • Six drones in the Belotserkovsky district, heading west.
  • One drone in the north of Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
  • One drone in the north of Odesa Oblast, moving into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • One drone over Dnipro city.
  • Drones in the northern part of Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
  • Drones in Sumy Oblast, heading south.
  • Drones in the eastern part of Cherkasy Oblast, heading northwest.
  • Drones in the southern part of Kyiv Oblast, heading west/southwest.
  • Drones east of Dnipro, heading south.

• Drone Attacks in Russia:

  • Reports of explosions in Ryazan due to drone attacks.
  • Russian air defense systems in Ryazan are actively engaging drones.
  • Drones confirmed destroyed over Ryazan Oblast.
  • Governor of Ryazan Oblast confirms drones were destroyed, with no casualties, and material damage is being assessed.
  • Reports of a fire at an oil refinery in Ryazan.
  • New: Reports indicate another fire at the oil refinery in Ryazan following a drone attack. Several dozen drones were reportedly shot down.

• Kharkiv:

  • An explosion was heard in Kharkiv.
  • Russian forces launched missile strikes in Kharkiv and used "Geran" drones.

• Luhansk:

  • Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.

Political/Economic Situation

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has halted most foreign aid for 90 days. President Trump has officially confirmed the freeze on new aid to other countries.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
• Investigation into actor Smolyaninov extended for another three months.
• Presidential elections will be held in Belarus on January 26, with five candidates, including incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko.
• North Korea has conducted a successful test of a strategic cruise missile designed for submarine deployment.
• The Trump administration is working on a plan to transfer control of TikTok to Oracle.
• US President Trump stated the US may become a much larger country soon.
• US President Trump lifted the ban on the supply of 2000-pound bombs to Israel.
• A deputy of the Verkhovna Rada called on Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to resign due to contract failures.
• US President Trump confirmed a 90-day freeze on financial aid to other countries and indicated plans to reduce excessive government spending.
• Former Danish Minister for Greenland, Tom Høyem, stated that the US can only buy Greenland from Denmark with the consent of Britain.

Changes from New Messages

• Escalation of Drone Warfare: The new reports of increased drone movements, particularly around Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi, Starokostiantyniv, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv, suggest a significant escalation in drone warfare and the targeting of new areas. The new explosion in Sumy further underscores this escalation.
• Second Attack on Ryazan Oil Refinery: The confirmation of a second fire at the oil refinery in Ryazan indicates the persistence and potential effectiveness of Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory. This could have significant implications for Russia's fuel supply and war effort.
• Artillery Strikes in Velyka Novosilka: The video evidence of Russian artillery targeting Ukrainian strongholds in Velyka Novosilka confirms the complete encirclement of the settlement and the ongoing efforts to eliminate remaining Ukrainian resistance.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is complete, with video evidence showing Russian artillery targeting Ukrainian positions within the settlement. The situation in Pokrovsk is critical, with 48 assault actions reported, indicating a major Russian offensive. Ukrainian forces are facing a dire situation in Toretsk, with defenses collapsing. The reported advances near Ulakly, Konstantinopol, Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Kotlyne, and Sloviansk further complicate the situation for Ukrainian forces.

Drone warfare is significantly escalating. Ukrainian drone attacks continue to target strategic locations deep inside Russia, with new reports confirming a second fire at an oil refinery in Ryazan. The increased drone movements across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, particularly around Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi, Starokostiantyniv, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv, suggest a potential expansion of the drone conflict and the targeting of new areas. The explosion in Sumy highlights the urgent need for enhanced air defense measures.

The political situation presents significant challenges for Ukraine. The confirmed 90-day suspension of most US foreign aid could severely impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts, necessitating the urgent exploration of alternative funding sources. The call for the Ukrainian Defense Minister's resignation adds to the internal political pressure. The upcoming presidential elections in Belarus and North Korea's successful cruise missile test are notable developments in the broader geopolitical landscape.

Recommendations

The recommendations from the previous analysis remain relevant and are further emphasized by the new information:

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly critical.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: With the encirclement complete, focus on conducting rearguard actions in Velyka Novosilka to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Kharkiv regions, and now urgently in areas targeted by increased drone movements like Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi, Starokostiantyniv, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas under threat, including Ryazan, Vylkove/Kiliya, Berdychiv, Vinnytsia, Korosten, Sumy Oblast, and other regions inside Russia targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks. The new explosion in Sumy and the second attack on the Ryazan oil refinery highlight the urgent need for enhanced air defenses in these regions.
5. Address Logistical Challenges: Secure supply lines and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines, especially given the advances near Ulakly, Konstantinopol, Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, and Kotlyne.
6. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems. Address the call for the Ukrainian Defense Minister's resignation and work to maintain international confidence in Ukraine's defense capabilities. The confirmed 90-day suspension of US aid makes this even more critical.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Address the conflicting reports about the situation in Ryazan, clarifying the extent of the damage caused by drone attacks.
8. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
9. Assess and Mitigate Damage in Ryazan: Conduct a thorough assessment of the damage to the oil refinery and any other affected infrastructure in Ryazan. Provide assistance to affected civilians and repair critical infrastructure. Enhance air defenses in the region to prevent further attacks.
10. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements, particularly the reported movements in Kyiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, with special attention to the new areas of Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi, Starokostiantyniv, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv. Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas.
11. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: The report indicating potential weaknesses in Russian tactics, particularly their difficulty in securing captured positions, should be exploited. Launch counterattacks to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian advances.
12. Address the Threat of New Russian Drones: Develop countermeasures against emerging threats like the new Russian fiber-optic-connected drones. Invest in research and development of anti-drone technologies that can effectively neutralize these drones.
13. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the confirmed shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding the 90-day aid freeze to Ukraine and the statement about the US potentially becoming a larger country. Urgently engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support and explore alternative funding sources.
14. Intelligence Gathering: Utilize all available intelligence assets to gather information about Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions. The analysis of the damaged German ATF Dingo 2 and the video evidence of Russian artillery in Velyka Novosilka provide valuable intelligence.
15. Adapt to Asymmetric Warfare: The increasing use of improvised drones and other asymmetric tactics by both sides requires a flexible and adaptive approach to warfare. Develop and implement tactics that can effectively counter these threats while also leveraging similar capabilities to gain an advantage.
16. Leverage Technological Advantages: Continue to invest in and develop advanced military technologies, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, electronic warfare, and cyber warfare.
17. Train and Equip Troops: Ensure that Ukrainian troops are adequately trained and equipped to deal with the evolving threats on the battlefield, including training in counter-drone operations, urban warfare, and the use of advanced weaponry.
18. Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously monitor the situation on the ground and adjust strategies and tactics accordingly. The fluid and dynamic nature of the conflict requires a high degree of flexibility and adaptability.
19. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The ongoing conflict has the potential to escalate further, particularly if new weapons systems are introduced or if the conflict spills over into neighboring countries. Develop contingency plans to address potential escalation scenarios.
20. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Given the continued targeting of critical infrastructure by both sides, enhance the protection of key facilities, such as power plants, oil refineries, and transportation hubs.
21. Address the Humanitarian Situation: Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
22. Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts. This includes assessing the damage to infrastructure, developing plans for rebuilding, and securing funding for these efforts.
23. Maintain International Solidarity: Continue to work with international partners to maintain solidarity and support for Ukraine. This includes diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia, economic sanctions, and military assistance.
24. Seek a Negotiated Solution: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, explore opportunities for a negotiated solution to the conflict. This may involve engaging in diplomatic efforts with Russia and other relevant parties to find a peaceful resolution.
25. Counter Russian Missile and Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to Kharkiv to counter the reported missile and "Geran" drone attacks. Prioritize the protection of civilians and critical infrastructure in the region.
26. Respond to the Situation in Sumy: Investigate the cause of the explosion in Sumy and assess the extent of the damage. Deploy emergency response teams and provide assistance to any affected civilians. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter potential future attacks.

These recommendations are based on the current situation and available information. The situation is constantly evolving, and recommendations may need to be adjusted accordingly.