Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 26, 2025, 00:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical and dynamic, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure and achieving significant breakthroughs across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with major developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have completed the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka and are making advances in the areas of Toretsk, Kotlyne, Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, and Sloviansk. They are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and have captured about half of Chasiv Yar's urban area. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Sumy, Cherkasy, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Ukrainian drone attacks persist deep in Russian territory, with reports of explosions and confirmed drone attacks in Ryazan causing another fire at a local oil refinery.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka

• Russian forces have completed the encirclement and liquidated the "southern cauldron."
• Ukrainian troops are blocked to the north and south, with the only remaining escape route on foot towards Blagodatnoye now cut off.
• Russian forces control over 70% of Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian forces have made further advances in Velyka Novosilka.

Pokrovsk

• Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance.
• They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
• Heavy fighting continues, with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
• The intensity of attacks is high, with 48 assault actions reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne.

Chasiv Yar

• Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
• They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district.
• Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat in Chasiv Yar.
• Russian forces are making advances in Toretsk.

Kurakhove

• Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
• Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
• Russian forces are advancing towards Ulakly and Konstantinopol, west of Kurakhovo.
• Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ulakly.
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Dachne, allowing Russian forces to advance.
• Russian forces are making advances near Uspenivka, Udachne, and Kotlyne.
• Heavy fighting is reported between Pishchane and Zvir.

Toretsk

• Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
• Video evidence indicates that the 132nd brigade of the Russian forces successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian tank in Toretsk using a drone. This further confirms the Russian advance and the effectiveness of their drone warfare.
• The 132nd brigade of the Russian forces are continuing to target and destroy Ukrainian armored and automotive vehicles near Toretsk.
• Russian forces have made further advances in Toretsk.

Other Regions

• Drone Movements:

  • Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
  • Three additional drones are reported near Vylkove/Kiliya, moving from the sea. One drone is approaching Vylkove.
  • New: One drone is approaching Vylkove.
  • New: Four drones are reported south of Berdychiv, heading west.
  • New: Two drones are circling east of Vinnytsia.
  • New: One drone is reported west of Korosten, heading west.
  • New: Five new drones are reported through Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast.
  • Drone strikes are reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Sumy, and Cherkasy oblasts.
  • Six drones are reported in the Belotserkovsky district, heading west.
  • One drone is reported in the north of Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
  • One drone is reported in the north of Odesa Oblast, moving into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • One drone is over Dnipro city.
  • Drones are reported in the northern part of Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
  • Drones are reported in Sumy Oblast, heading south.
  • Drones are reported in the eastern part of Cherkasy Oblast, heading northwest.
  • Drones are reported in the southern part of Kyiv Oblast, heading west/southwest.
  • Drones are reported east of Dnipro, heading south.

• Drone Attacks in Russia:

  • Reports of explosions in Ryazan, Russia, due to drone attacks and air defense activity.
  • Russian sources claim that air defense systems in Ryazan are actively engaging and destroying a significant number of drones.
  • Drones have been confirmed to have been destroyed over Ryazan Oblast.
  • The governor of Ryazan Oblast, Pavel Malkov, has confirmed that drones were destroyed over the region and that there are no casualties. He has stated that material damage is being assessed.
  • There are reports of a fire at an oil refinery in Ryazan.
  • New: Reports indicate another fire at the oil refinery in Ryazan following the drone attack. Several dozen drones were reportedly shot down.

• Kharkiv

  • An explosion was heard in Kharkiv.
  • New: Russian forces launched missile strikes in Kharkiv and used "Geran" drones.

• Luhansk

  • Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.

Political/Economic Situation

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days. US President Donald Trump has officially confirmed the freeze on new aid to other countries.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
• Investigation into actor Smolyaninov (recognized as a foreign agent in Russia) on charges of extremism and spreading false information about the Russian Armed Forces has been extended for another three months. His location has been established.
• Presidential elections will be held in Belarus on January 26, with five candidates, including incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko.
• North Korea has conducted a successful test of a strategic cruise missile designed for submarine deployment.
• The Trump administration is working on a plan to transfer control of TikTok to the American company Oracle.
• New: US President Trump stated that the US may become a much larger country in the near future.
• New: US President Trump lifted the ban on the supply of 2000-pound bombs to Israel.
• New: A deputy of the Verkhovna Rada called on the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Rustem Umerov, to resign due to the failure of his department to fulfill defense contracts.

Changes from New Messages

• Intensified Drone Activity: New reports indicate increased drone movements, particularly around Vylkove/Kiliya, Berdychiv, Vinnytsia, Korosten, and Sumy Oblast. This suggests a potential escalation in drone warfare and the targeting of new areas.
• Continued Drone Attacks on Ryazan: Reports of another fire at the oil refinery in Ryazan, despite claims of dozens of drones being shot down, indicate that Ukrainian drone attacks are continuing to target strategic infrastructure deep inside Russia. The persistence of these attacks highlights the vulnerability of Russian air defenses and the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone capabilities.
• Missile Strikes and Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: Reports of missile strikes and "Geran" drone attacks in Kharkiv indicate a renewed Russian offensive effort in the region. This could signal an attempt to further weaken Ukrainian defenses and gain ground in the Kharkiv Oblast.
• Geopolitical Developments: Trump's statement about the US potentially becoming a larger country and the lifting of the ban on bomb supplies to Israel, coupled with the call for the Ukrainian Defense Minister's resignation, add new layers to the geopolitical landscape. These developments could have significant implications for the ongoing conflict and international relations.
• Analysis of Damaged German ATF Dingo 2: The detailed analysis of the German armored vehicle ATF Dingo 2 provides valuable intelligence on the type of equipment used by Ukrainian forces and its vulnerability to Russian attacks. This information can be used to assess the effectiveness of Western-supplied military hardware and inform future aid decisions.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is complete, and Russian forces are pushing towards Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar with increased intensity. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly concerning, with 48 assault actions reported, indicating a major Russian offensive effort. Ukrainian forces are facing a critical situation in Toretsk, with defenses reportedly collapsing. The reported advances near Ulakly, Konstantinopol, Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Kotlyne, and Sloviansk further complicate the situation for Ukrainian forces, indicating a widening of the Russian offensive front.

Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict. Ukrainian drone attacks are continuing to target strategic locations deep inside Russia, with new reports of explosions and confirmed drone attacks in Ryazan, causing another fire at a local oil refinery. The confirmed downing of drones over Ryazan Oblast and the reports of a fire at an oil refinery in the same region indicate the persistence and potential effectiveness of these attacks. The use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeted strikes, and psychological warfare continues to shape the battlefield dynamics. The new reports of increased drone movements, particularly around Vylkove/Kiliya, Berdychiv, Vinnytsia, Korosten, and Sumy Oblast, suggest a potential escalation in drone warfare and the targeting of new areas.

The political situation also presents challenges for Ukraine. The suspension of most US foreign aid for 90 days could impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts. The call for the Ukrainian Defense Minister's resignation adds to the internal political pressure on the Ukrainian government. The upcoming presidential elections in Belarus could have implications for the region and the ongoing conflict, depending on the outcome and subsequent political dynamics. The successful test of a strategic cruise missile by North Korea and the potential transfer of control of TikTok to an American company are notable developments in the broader geopolitical landscape.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly critical, given the high number of reported assault actions.
2. Secure Velyka Novosilka: The situation in Velyka Novosilka is dire, with the encirclement complete. Focus on evacuating remaining troops and civilians if possible. Conduct rearguard actions to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Kharkiv regions. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets. The development and deployment of the new Russian fiber-optic-connected drones, as detailed in the video analysis, require a reassessment of counter-drone strategies.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas currently under threat, including Ryazan, Vylkove/Kiliya, Berdychiv, Vinnytsia, Korosten, Sumy Oblast, and other regions deep inside Russia targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks.
5. Address Logistical Challenges: The advances near Ulakly, Konstantinopol, Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, and Kotlyne could create logistical challenges for Ukrainian forces. Secure supply lines and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines.
6. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems, to counter Russian advances and drone attacks. The suspension of US aid makes this even more critical. Address the call for the Ukrainian Defense Minister's resignation and work to maintain international confidence in Ukraine's defense capabilities.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Address the conflicting reports about the situation in Ryazan, clarifying the extent of the damage caused by drone attacks.
8. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
9. Assess and Mitigate Damage in Ryazan: Conduct a thorough assessment of the damage to the oil refinery and any other affected infrastructure in Ryazan. Provide assistance to affected civilians and repair critical infrastructure. Enhance air defenses in the region to prevent further attacks.
10. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements, particularly the reported movements in Kyiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas. The increased drone activity around Vylkove/Kiliya, Berdychiv, Vinnytsia, Korosten, and Sumy Oblast requires special attention.
11. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: The report from "Военкор Котенок" indicates potential weaknesses in Russian tactics, particularly their difficulty in securing captured positions. Ukrainian forces should exploit these weaknesses by launching counterattacks to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian advances.
12. Address the Threat of New Russian Drones: The detailed analysis of the new Russian fiber-optic-connected drone highlights the need to develop countermeasures against this emerging threat. Invest in research and development of anti-drone technologies that can effectively neutralize these drones, which are reportedly resistant to jamming.
13. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the potential shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding aid to Ukraine and the statement about the US potentially becoming a larger country. Engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support.
14. Intelligence Gathering: Utilize all available intelligence assets, including satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, and human intelligence, to gather information about Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions. This information is crucial for effective planning and decision-making. The analysis of the damaged German ATF Dingo 2 provides valuable intelligence on the type of equipment used by Ukrainian forces and its vulnerability to Russian attacks.
15. Adapt to Asymmetric Warfare: The increasing use of improvised drones and other asymmetric tactics by both sides requires a flexible and adaptive approach to warfare. Develop and implement tactics that can effectively counter these threats while also leveraging similar capabilities to gain an advantage.
16. Leverage Technological Advantages: Continue to invest in and develop advanced military technologies, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, electronic warfare, and cyber warfare. These technologies can provide a significant advantage in the conflict and help to counter Russian numerical superiority.
17. Train and Equip Troops: Ensure that Ukrainian troops are adequately trained and equipped to deal with the evolving threats on the battlefield. This includes training in counter-drone operations, urban warfare, and the use of advanced weaponry.
18. Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously monitor the situation on the ground and adjust strategies and tactics accordingly. The fluid and dynamic nature of the conflict requires a high degree of flexibility and adaptability.
19. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The ongoing conflict has the potential to escalate further, particularly if new weapons systems are introduced or if the conflict spills over into neighboring countries. Develop contingency plans to address potential escalation scenarios.
20. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Given the continued targeting of critical infrastructure by both sides, enhance the protection of key facilities, such as power plants, oil refineries, and transportation hubs. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems, implementing physical security measures, and developing redundancy plans in case of damage.
21. Address the Humanitarian Situation: The ongoing conflict is causing significant humanitarian suffering, particularly in areas affected by heavy fighting. Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
22. Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts. This includes assessing the damage to infrastructure, developing plans for rebuilding, and securing funding for these efforts.
23. Maintain International Solidarity: Continue to work with international partners to maintain solidarity and support for Ukraine. This includes diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia, economic sanctions, and military assistance.
24. Seek a Negotiated Solution: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, explore opportunities for a negotiated solution to the conflict. This may involve engaging in diplomatic efforts with Russia and other relevant parties to find a peaceful resolution.
25. Counter Russian Missile and Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to Kharkiv to counter the reported missile and "Geran" drone attacks. Prioritize the protection of civilians and critical infrastructure in the region.

These recommendations are based on the current situation and available information. The situation is constantly evolving, and recommendations may need to be adjusted accordingly.