Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 25, 2025, 19:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are making significant advances near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar, consolidating their positions and capturing key infrastructure. In Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces are now in control of over 70% of the settlement, including the city center. The "southern cauldron" has been liquidated, with the remnants of Ukrainian forces retreating to the northwest outskirts. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure with drones, as evidenced by a new video showcasing a successful strike on a Russian BUK-M3 SAM system by the 412th "NEMESIS" regiment. This highlights the growing importance of drones in reconnaissance, targeting, and offensive operations. Russian forces have reportedly struck a Ukrainian aviation repair and training center in Hlevakha, Kyiv region, destroying hangars and equipment used for UAV maintenance and testing. There are also reports of Russian forces using guided aerial bombs against targets in Sumy region.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement and liquidated the "southern cauldron." Ukrainian troops are blocked to the north and south, with the only remaining escape route on foot towards Blagodatnoye now cut off.
  • Russian forces are using Grad MLRS to target the city at night and are reportedly encircling the Ukrainian garrison in the center of the town.
  • The distance between advancing Russian units is reported to be between 2.2 and 3.7 km, indicating the pocket is under complete fire control by Russian forces.
  • Russian forces control over 70% of Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces have raised their flag in Velyka Novosilka over the city hospital, signifying a major symbolic victory. The capture of the city is nearing completion, marking a significant strategic loss for Ukraine. Remnants of Ukrainian forces have retreated to the northwest outskirts.

• Pokrovsk:

  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance, consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west, with reports indicating a plan to cover the city from the southwest.
  • The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies the city is under threat of encirclement.
  • Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian drone communication equipment in Pokrovsk.
  • "Azov" forces are reportedly conducting counterattacks in the Pokrovsk direction, described more like raids before retreating without securing positions.
  • Heavy fighting continues, with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
  • Fighting is ongoing in the areas of Shevchenko, Udachne, Baranivka, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Uspenivka, Slovyanka, and Petropavlivka.
  • Russian forces are reportedly forcibly evacuating children from Pokrovsk.
  • West of Volkovo and north of Solenoye, Russian forces have reportedly advanced 3.6 km, encompassing the entire "pocket."
  • Heavy fighting is reported in Udachnoye.
  • Following the liberation of Baranovka, Russian forces are clearing positions on the opposite high bank of the river.
  • Fighting continues west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye.
  • Russian forces have liberated Baranovka and are within 5-7 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city.
  • The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of key supply lines significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement.
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to use drones to target Russian troops in a ruined structure in an effort to save Pokrovsk.
  • Russian forces have advanced along forested areas southwest of Slavyanka.
  • Fighting continues south of Petrovpavlovka and Shevchenko, moving towards Andriivka.
  • Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.
  • Russian forces are complicating Ukrainian logistics north of Pokrovsk. FPV drones are reportedly active in Rodinskoye, near the T-05-15 highway.
  • Ukrainian military sources indicate Russian forces are advancing on both sides of Pokrovsk to cut off supply routes and encircle the city.
  • Positional fighting is ongoing near Krasnoarmeisk, with Russian forces advancing 700 meters north of Kotlino.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
  • They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district.
  • Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
  • The basements and workshops of the refractory plant have been completely cleared.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators from the "Rarog" battalion of the 24th Mechanized Brigade targeting Russian positions near Chasiv Yar, causing buildings to collapse.
  • In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces are focusing their efforts on the area with high-rise buildings.

• Kurakhove:

  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
  • Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
  • They have reportedly advanced in the southern part of Nov আন্দ্রিভকা and occupied several forest strips south of Ukrainka.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to counterattack near Zelenovka and Andreevka to prevent the "pocket" from closing and allowing their forces to escape.
  • Northeast of the liberated Kurakhove, Russian forces are conducting raids near Andriivka. To the west and northwest, Russian forces are applying pressure, but their activity has decreased in the past few days, likely due to rotations and regrouping.
  • Positional fighting is reported in the Kurakhove - Dachne area.
  • On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Russian forces have initiated fighting in Andriivka, northwest of Kurakhove.

• Toretsk:

  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
  • In the Krymske area, Russian forces advanced 400 meters, reaching new positions on the northern outskirts of the settlement.
  • Near Dzerzhinsk, Russian forces have expanded their control by 1.5 km west of Novgorodsky (New York).

• Kramatorsk:

  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.

• Zverevo:

  • The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.

• Solene:

  • Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.

• Uspenivka:

  • Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

• Dachnoe:

  • A video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces in Dachnoe, in support of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division's offensive in the Kurakhove direction.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanovka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka, taking control of a forest area between the settlements and continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
• Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.
• North of Kupiansk on the right bank of the Oskil River, units of the "West" group have liberated the settlement of Zakhidne, with a wedge into the enemy's defenses measuring 4.5 km in depth from the Oskil River to the west.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
• Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruglенькое failed.
• Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka.
• Russian forces report that Nikolaevo-Daryino is under their control, and airborne troops are advancing further into Ukrainian territory.
• Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnovka.
• In the area of Kruhlenke/Viktorivka, Russian assault units have entered Viktorivka and are attempting to establish a foothold. Offensive actions are being conducted towards the settlement of Nikolske.
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces have inflicted damage in the Kursk region amounting to 750 billion rubles.
• Commissions are beginning work to assess the destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• About 1,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been killed in the region while fighting against Ukraine.
• From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction. All attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
• In the area of Kruhlenke/Viktorivka, Russian assault units have entered Viktorivka and are attempting to establish a foothold. Offensive actions are being conducted towards the settlement of Nikolske.
• Russian forces, specifically Ussuri paratroopers, have reportedly fully liberated Nikolayevo-Daryino.
• Russian naval infantry are reportedly continuing to engage Ukrainian forces in Kurilovka and its surroundings.
• Ukrainian forces are reportedly increasing their presence in the Sudzha border area. Two newly formed battalions of the 210th separate infantry brigade "Berlingo" are expected to be deployed.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing trophies in liberated Russkoye Porechnoye, including Belgian thermobaric weapons, a Swedish-made grenade launcher, and U.S.-made 40-mm grenades.
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces have inflicted damage in the Kursk region amounting to 750 billion rubles.
• A coordination council has been created in the Kursk region to address the problems of residents in the border areas. The council will include not only officials, representatives of law enforcement and supervisory authorities but also the citizens themselves.
• Ukrainian servicemen of the "Chernomorskaya Sech" battalion are accused of committing terrorist acts in the Kursk region. The case has been sent to court, according to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation.
• A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
• Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
• Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
• Video details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
• Video shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
• Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows drone pilots engaging a target in the Kursk region border area.
• Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region.
• New video shows a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region.
• A medic from the "Chestnut" unit saved 300 soldiers during the fighting in the Kursk region.
• Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
• Video shows a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
• New video shows Ukrainian soldiers interrogating a captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region using Google Translate.
• An update from the Russian Ministry of Defense states that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region.
• Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruglенькое failed.
• Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka.
• Russian forces report that Nikolaevo-Daryino is under their control and that airborne troops are advancing further into Ukrainian territory.
• Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnovka.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with a sniper rifle in the Kursk region. The drone was reportedly part of a group of 39 "Baba Yaga" drones that have been destroyed in the area since January 1st.
• A Lancet loitering munition destroyed a tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk border area.
• The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements.
• Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery strikes engaged AFU manpower and hardware near several settlements.
• Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
• Video evidence confirms the complete liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
• Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
• The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• A Russian Lancet loitering munition targeted a US-supplied M1 Abrams tank near Viktorivka.
• Video evidence shows the 61st Steppe Brigade using drones to destroy a Russian assault group near the Kursk region.
• Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2 in the Kursk region.
• Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area of the Kursk region.
• Battles are ongoing near Pogrebki, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
• Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared, with the enemy making careless and unsuccessful counterattacks. Heavy fighting in the eastern part of the settlement, with the enemy using large strongholds. Russian Aerospace Forces are actively working in the area. The fog is hindering the use of drones, making it the time for assault groups to show their capabilities.
• Video evidence shows the effective work of the "Vinokur" drone operator from the Kursk direction, destroying a Ukrainian soldier.
• Video evidence shows the destruction of another American Bradley fighting vehicle in the Kursk region.
• Video evidence shows "Prince Vandal" destroying NATO equipment and Ukrainian forces on the Kursk front using fiber-optic KVN drones.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: One drone is approaching Balakliia. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya. They have occupied the forest near Zapadnoye and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
• On the right bank of the Oskol, Russian forces are continuing to push through Ukrainian defenses, expanding their control zone towards the western part of Dvurichna in the direction of Sagunivka.
• Fighting continues in the area of Zelenyi Hai, with Ukrainian forces attempting to improve their tactical position by attacking from Borova Andriivka.
• Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions.
• Renewed heavy shelling reported in Kupyansk.
• Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk and have taken the initiative. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are reportedly suffering heavy losses.

Other Regions

• Drone Movements:
  • 5 drones are flying over the Berislav district towards Bereznegovatoe.
  • 1 drone flew over Pokrov in a northerly direction.
  • 2 drones are flying over Pavlograd in a northerly direction.
  • 6 drones are in the Kremenchug region, heading northwest.
  • 2 drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • 1 drone is moving from the Kharkiv region to the Dnepropetrovsk region, and 1 to the Poltava region.
  • 3 drones are moving from the Sumy region to the Poltava region.
  • Groups of drones are moving along the border of the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the east of the Mykolaiv region, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the north of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Kharkiv region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the south and center of the Poltava region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Poltava region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the north of the Sumy region, heading south.
  • Drones are in the east of the Cherkasy region, heading north.
  • Drones are on the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading north.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the Nikopol area, heading towards Kryvyi Rih.
  • Several groups of attack UAVs are moving through the Sumy region towards the Chernihiv region.
  • Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 15 drones did not reach their targets and were "lost on location."
  • Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
• Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with two X-59/69 missiles and 61 drones. Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down two X-59/69 guided missiles, 46 Shahed drones, and other types of drones in various regions. 15 enemy drones were lost without negative consequences.
• In Hlevakha, Kyiv region, Russian forces reportedly struck the territory of the 10th Aviation Repair and Training Center (ARUS) with UAVs, damaging hangars and equipment used for UAV maintenance and testing.
• Explosions were reported in Kherson.
• Russian forces struck the railway station in Sumy where enemy defense industry products were manufactured and stored.

Political/Economic Situation

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days. This likely includes military aid to Ukraine, Jordan, and Taiwan. Aid to Israel and Egypt will continue. The order was issued by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended. Over 1 million people have not yet been re-evaluated.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus. Russian equipment is being removed from the port. The new leader of Syria congratulated Trump on the start of his work as President of the United States.
• Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks on Brovary and Hlevakha were produced in Russia but rely on foreign components. He called for a complete cutoff of these supplies to stop Russian aggression.
• Russia-Immigration: Russia has tightened the rules for obtaining temporary residence permits and residency permits to combat fictitious marriages and paternity for the purpose of obtaining immigration status.
• Hamas Leader Killed: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was reportedly killed in action in the Gaza Strip while fighting alongside his troops.
• The US State Department has announced a 90-day pause in providing any assistance to foreign states. This includes a review of existing aid programs, including those for Ukraine, but with a possible exemption clause.
• USAID representatives have been instructed to halt all projects related to Ukraine, including support for schools and healthcare.
• A correspondent for "Voice of America," citing Pentagon sources, reports that the State Department's decree does not apply to military aid for Ukraine.
• Donald Trump, in a telephone conversation with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, insisted on acquiring
• Trump has appointed a new Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth. Hegseth is one of the youngest Secretaries of Defense in history and has been critical of aid to Ukraine. He has also praised Putin as a "good authoritarian leader." This appointment could signal a significant shift in US foreign policy.
• North Korea has announced an increase in military spending for 2025, despite a slight decrease in the proportion of the budget allocated to defense.
• The governor of the Samara region in Russia expressed hope that Gazprom would replace private players as the region's gas operator. This could indicate a move towards greater state control over the energy sector in Russia.
• The mayor of Lviv announced that several airports in Ukraine would begin operating this year. This could have significant implications for the conflict, as it would allow for the faster and more efficient transport of troops, supplies, and equipment.
• Israel will release 200 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for four Israeli hostages held by Hamas. This is the second hostage exchange to take place recently.
• Hamas has released four Israeli hostages, all of whom are IDF soldiers. They were reportedly captured on October 7, 2023.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 11 Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Black Sea near the coast of Crimea.
• Zelensky stated that Trump could end the war between Russia and Ukraine faster than others due to his strength, sanctions, and the strength of the US economy. He acknowledged that Putin does not want this, so it will not happen quickly.
• According to the Central Election Commission, voter turnout in the early voting for the presidential elections in Belarus was 41.81%.
• A poll shows that 68% of Russians support the inclusion of patriotic songs in the school curriculum, while 24% oppose it and 8% are undecided.
• Two Russians are accused of attacking a military airfield and carrying out acts of sabotage. They allegedly received instructions from Ukrainian intelligence via messengers.
• Elon Musk appeared at a rally of the far-right AfD party in Germany, praising German culture and suggesting that the upcoming elections in Germany could determine the fate of Europe or even the world.
• The leader of the French "Patriots" party, Florian Philippot, stated that Zelensky should forget about negotiations with Russia and that his fate is to flee to Miami.
• Hungary will agree to extend EU sanctions against Russia for 12 months instead of 6, but only if the issue is not raised again during this period.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused the US and NATO of provoking Russia into a nuclear conflict and stated that Russia is ready to respond to such actions.
• The US State Department, commenting on Trump's statement about acquiring Greenland, said that the US has no plans to purchase the island.
• The US and Mexico may send thousands of troops and equipment to the border, according to The Washington Post. Some units have already been notified of their potential involvement.
• Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov should resign, according to Anastasia Radina, head of the Verkhovna Rada's anti-corruption committee. She accused him of violating the law, failing to fulfill more than half of the ministry's contracts, and destroying the country's trust in the Ministry of Defense.
• Zelensky stated that the ban on negotiations with Putin applies to all Ukrainians except the President of Ukraine, because he is Jewish.
• The CIA has shifted its position to favor the lab leak theory for the origins of COVID-19, which could have massive geopolitical implications.
• The Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Russia has invited two Portuguese professors to work under a program for supporters of "Russian traditional values."
• Elon Musk expressed his support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
• Hungary's Siyarto called Tusk an "agent of Soros" after his threats to Orban, emphasizing that the Hungarian government plays "for the Hungarian team."
• Fico accused Ukraine of organizing protests in Slovakia, claiming that a third of the participants are Ukrainians.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces making significant advances across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearly complete, with Russian forces capturing the town and Ukrainian forces retreating. Russian forces now control up to 70% of the city and are actively clearing the southern cauldron. The situation in Pokrovsk is dire, with Russian forces within striking distance of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and encircling the city. In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces control about half of the urban area. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk have nearly collapsed. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces continue their advance towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating control and inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian units, including reports of North Korean casualties. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces are conducting combat operations in the Kursk region. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including new reports of drone activity in Sumy region and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine (Kyivska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Kirovohradska), with the threat of ballistic missile attacks. The new information about Ukrainian Special Operations Forces conducting operations in the Kursk region and the air raid alerts in multiple regions of Ukraine indicates an escalation in the conflict and a broadening of the combat zone. The reported use of fiber-optic-controlled drones by Russian forces represents a technological advancement that could pose a significant challenge to Ukrainian defenses. The new video showcasing a successful Ukrainian strike on a Russian BUK-M3 system highlights the growing importance of drones in modern warfare and Ukraine's increasing proficiency in their use. The reported Russian strike on a Ukrainian aviation repair facility in Hlevakha demonstrates Russia's continued efforts to degrade Ukraine's military infrastructure. The political situation remains tense, with the US halting most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, and Zelensky's statement on negotiations with Russia adding further complexity. The appointment of a new US Secretary of Defense who has been critical of aid to Ukraine could signal a significant shift in US foreign policy. The new information about the CIA's stance on COVID-19's origins and the recruitment of foreign professors by a Russian university adds a new layer to the geopolitical landscape. Elon Musk's support for the AfD party in Germany further complicates the situation. Hungary's Siyarto called Tusk an "agent of Soros" after his threats to Orban, emphasizing that the Hungarian government plays "for the Hungarian team." Fico accused Ukraine of organizing protests in Slovakia, claiming that a third of the participants are Ukrainians.

Recommendations

1. Immediate Reinforcements: Prioritize the deployment of reinforcements, including anti-tank weapons, air defense systems, and manpower, to Velyka Novosilka to break the encirclement and prevent further Russian advances.
2. Secure Pokrovsk: Strengthen defenses in Pokrovsk by deploying additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter the Russian advance and prevent further encirclement.
3. Counter Drone Warfare: Given the increasing importance of drones, invest in counter-drone technology and training to neutralize Russian drone capabilities and protect Ukrainian troops and infrastructure. Develop and deploy advanced electronic warfare systems to jam or disable enemy drones.
4. Enhance Air Defense: Prioritize the acquisition and deployment of advanced air defense systems to counter Russian air superiority and protect critical infrastructure, such as the aviation repair facility in Hlevakha. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions.
5. Secure Supply Lines: Given the Russian advances near Pokrovsk and the severing of key supply lines, establish and secure alternative supply routes to ensure the continued flow of essential resources to Ukrainian forces.
6. Strategic Communication: Counter Russian propaganda and maintain public morale by highlighting Ukrainian successes, such as the destruction of the BUK-M3 system, and addressing concerns about the suspension of US aid.
7. International Diplomacy: Engage with international partners to secure continued military and financial assistance, emphasizing the need for sustained support to counter Russian aggression.
8. Assess and Adapt: Continuously assess the evolving situation on the ground, particularly in the Kursk region, and adapt strategies accordingly. Monitor Russian troop movements and adjust Ukrainian deployments to counter potential threats.
9. Invest in Domestic Defense Industry: Given the challenges in securing foreign aid, prioritize the development of Ukraine's domestic defense industry to reduce reliance on external support and enhance self-sufficiency in arms production.
10. Address Recruitment and Training Issues: Investigate and address the reported issues of inadequate training and forced conscription within the Russian military. Implement measures to ensure that troops are properly trained and motivated.
11. Counter-Intelligence: Enhance counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize Russian spies and saboteurs operating within Ukraine. The accusations against Ukrainian servicemen of the "Chernomorskaya Sech" battalion highlight the need for increased vigilance.
12. Cybersecurity: Strengthen cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure and government institutions from cyberattacks. The reported large-scale internet outage in Russia underscores the vulnerability of digital systems.
13. Humanitarian Aid: Given the increasing number of refugees and internally displaced persons, particularly in the Kursk region, ensure the provision of adequate humanitarian aid and support services.
14. Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the reported Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and the ongoing fighting in multiple regions, prepare for a potential escalation of the conflict. Develop contingency plans for various scenarios, including increased Russian offensives and potential attacks on major cities.
15. Diplomatic Efforts: While Zelensky has stated that the ban on negotiations with Putin applies to all Ukrainians except himself, explore potential avenues for diplomatic engagement with other Russian officials or through international mediators to de-escalate the conflict and prevent further bloodshed.
16. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda by disseminating accurate information about the situation on the ground and highlighting Ukrainian successes. Utilize social media and other platforms to reach both domestic and international audiences.
17. Long-Term Strategy: Develop a long-term strategy for rebuilding and strengthening Ukraine's military and economy, taking into account the potential for prolonged conflict and the need for sustained international support.
18. Border Security: Given the reported US plans to send troops and equipment to the Mexican border, monitor the situation and assess its potential impact on US military aid to Ukraine. Engage with US officials to ensure that Ukraine's security needs are not overlooked.
19. Sanctions: Advocate for the extension and strengthening of EU sanctions against Russia, working with international partners to ensure their effectiveness.
20. Address Internal Issues: Address the concerns raised by the head of the Verkhovna Rada's anti-corruption committee regarding the Minister of Defense. Investigate the allegations of contract violations and bureaucratic inefficiencies within the Ministry of Defense and take appropriate action to restore trust and ensure accountability.
21. Monitor Political Developments: Keep a close eye on political developments in