Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 25, 2025, 15:45 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces continue to achieve significant gains, particularly in Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and along the border areas of the Kursk region. In Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces are completing the encirclement and have reportedly cleared over 70% of the settlement. Ukrainian forces, facing a "no surrender" order, are attempting to escape in small groups. In Pokrovsk, Russian troops are advancing, expanding their control along the railway line and engaging in positional fighting near Novohrodivka. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region continues to falter, with Russian forces consolidating their control over previously captured settlements and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive use of FPV drones by both sides and new reports of Ukrainian reconnaissance spheres being deployed for extended surveillance.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka:
- Russian forces are completing the liberation of the settlement, with over 70% of the area cleared as of 18:00, January 25, 2025.
- Remnants of Ukrainian forces, previously surrounded, are continuing to resist. The command of the 110th Motorized Brigade has reportedly prohibited them from surrendering.
- Russian forces, including tankers from the 5th Tank Brigade and marines from the 40th Marine Brigade, are advancing and clearing the area.
- Over 350 Ukrainian soldiers from the 1st and 2nd battalions of the 110th Motorized Brigade have been reportedly killed.
- Ukrainian forces have reportedly withdrawn to the northwest of Velyka Novosilka, from where they are attempting to escape in small groups.
- Video evidence from "Воин DV" shows the current situation in Velyka Novosilka.
Pokrovsk:
- Positional fighting is ongoing in the Pokrovsk area.
- Russian forces are advancing towards Novohrodivka, with reports of fighting near the railway line.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly shelled a Russian forward position north of Novohrodivka.
- Russian forces are expanding their control along the railway line towards Pokrovsk, advancing up to 900 meters in a northerly direction.
- Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying Russian armored vehicles in the Pokrovsk area.
- Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near Pokrovsk.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank.
Chasiv Yar:
- In the Chasiv Yar direction, after clearing the workshops of the refractory plant, battles have shifted to the area west of Workshop No. 1 of the Chasov Yar Refractory Plant.
- Russian forces have launched an offensive south of the railway station, expanding their control after artillery shelling near Dniprovsky Pond.
Kurakhove:
- Video evidence shows the last battle of a Russian tank crew from the 5th Brigade of the 51st Army on October 29, 2024. The crew reportedly opened the way for Russian troops into Kurakhove.
Toretsk:
- In the Krymske area, Russian forces advanced 400 meters, reaching new positions on the northern outskirts of the settlement.
Zverevo:
- The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.
Dachne:
- A video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces in Dachne.

Luhansk Region

North of Kupiansk on the right bank of the Oskil River, units of the "West" group have liberated the settlement of Zakhidne.
Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.

Kursk Region

Video evidence shows an armored group of the special forces "Akhmat" repelling a Ukrainian counterattack and advancing near Sudzha.
Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing trophies in liberated Russkoye Porechnoye.
A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
A successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhne in the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
Video details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
Video shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows drone pilots engaging a target in the Kursk region border area.
Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region.
New video shows a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
Video shows a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
New video shows Ukrainian soldiers interrogating a captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region using Google Translate.
An update from the Russian Ministry of Defense states that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with a sniper rifle in the Kursk region. The drone was reportedly part of a group of 39 "Baba Yaga" drones that have been destroyed in the area since January 1st.
A Lancet loitering munition destroyed a tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk border area.
The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery strikes engaged AFU manpower and hardware near several settlements.
Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
Video evidence confirms the complete liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
Video evidence shows the 61st Steppe Brigade using drones to destroy a Russian assault group near the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to hunt Ukrainian infantry near Kupyansk.
New video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border.
Video evidence from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Video evidence from the "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows fighting near Glubokoye.
Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows electronic warfare specialists of a separate motorized infantry brigade of the "Sever" group detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs in the Kursk region border area.
Video evidence shows the effective work of anti-tank marines in Kurshina. The calculation of the Javelin operators took out three enemy tanks and four BMD-4 units of the enemy armored group in two days.
Video evidence shows a group of operators from the FPV GВ "North" chasing an enemy tank in the Kursk border area. After several accurate hits, the heavy equipment caught fire along with the crew.
A destroyed armored "Буханка" called "Коналю-2963" was reported in the Kursk region. Depending on the design, the armor of this van protected either only from pistol bullets and hunting rifles (2nd class), or from 5.45 and 7.62-mm Kalashnikov assault rifles with a PS bullet (3rd class). This is not an MRAP, but still noticeably better than a regular "Буханка" or any other civilian unarmored vehicle, which are now increasingly appearing on the front line.
An FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroyed a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows operators of FPV drones of the Russian Armed Forces attacking enemy shelters on the Kherson direction.
Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River and to destroy another unit in the same area.
Video evidence shows a tank of the Russian Armed Forces being targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows Russian forces using a drone to target and destroy a Ukrainian armored pickup truck in the Kursk region.
According to "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА," Russian troops have been fighting on the outskirts of Sverdlikovo for five days, with no entry into the settlement yet. The message suggests that reports of rapid advances may be exaggerated.
Russian military bloggers are accused of spreading disinformation about an all-female assault company supposedly being sent from Crimea to Kursk. The claim is based on a manipulated photo from a military competition for women.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier confessing to shooting unarmed Russian soldiers and committing other crimes in the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian FPV drones targeting and destroying Russian infantry and equipment.
Reports indicate that a new type of reconnaissance equipment is being used by Ukrainian forces on the front lines. The equipment, described as a sphere, is reportedly dropped from FPV drones and can transmit video and audio data in real-time for 50 minutes.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
The 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade reportedly ambushed a group from the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk region. Ukrainian sources claim that no Russian soldiers survived the ambush, which was supported by two BMP-3s.

Kharkiv Region

A Russian "Molniya" drone was reported to have struck the ground near a house in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, causing damage to cars and a building but no casualties. Another strike occurred on a parking lot near a house, damaging cars, windows, and a building facade.
Video evidence shows a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in the Kupyansk direction.
Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.

Other Regions

An animated map shows the routes of Russian cruise missiles and Geran drones targeting Ukraine on January 24-25, 2025. The map indicates strikes in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, with the use of guided bombs, cruise missiles, and drones.
Video evidence shows the moment of drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region.
Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye.
Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to hunt Ukrainian infantry near Kupyansk.
New video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border.
Video evidence from the "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows fighting near Glubokoye.
Video evidence shows the effective work of anti-tank marines in Kurshina. The calculation of the Javelin operators took

Updated Situation

The situation in Ukraine continues to be dominated by intense fighting in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces are making significant progress in Velyka Novosilka and Pokrovsk, while also consolidating their gains in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces are facing a difficult situation, particularly in Velyka Novosilka, where they are being encircled and have been ordered not to surrender. Drone warfare remains a key feature of the conflict, with both sides employing FPV drones extensively. The introduction of new reconnaissance spheres by Ukrainian forces marks a notable development in drone technology. The conflict continues to impact civilian infrastructure, as evidenced by the drone attack on an oil depot in the Voronezh region. The use of FPV drones, particularly in the Kursk region, is intensifying, with both sides deploying them for reconnaissance and attacks.

Recommendations

Reinforce Velyka Novosilka: Given the critical situation in Velyka Novosilka, immediate reinforcements, including anti-tank weapons, air defense systems, and manpower, are necessary to break the encirclement and prevent further Russian advances.
Secure Pokrovsk: Strengthen defenses in Pokrovsk by deploying additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter the Russian advance and prevent further encirclement.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the development and deployment of counter-drone systems, particularly in the Kursk region, to mitigate the threat posed by Russian FPV drones.
Utilize New Reconnaissance Technology: Maximize the use of the newly reported reconnaissance spheres to enhance situational awareness and gather intelligence on Russian troop movements and positions.
International Support: Continue to engage with international partners to secure additional military and financial aid, focusing on air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and counter-drone technology.
Adapt to Evolving Tactics: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground, particularly regarding the increasing use of FPV drones by both sides.
Protect Civilian Infrastructure: Strengthen defenses around critical civilian infrastructure, such as oil depots and energy facilities, to prevent further disruptions and damage.
Counter Russian Advances in Kursk: Deploy additional troops and resources to the Kursk region to counter Russian advances and prevent further incursions into Ukrainian territory. Focus on securing the border areas and repelling Russian attacks.
Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities: Identify and exploit any vulnerabilities in Russian defenses, particularly in areas where they have recently gained territory. Conduct counterattacks where feasible to regain lost ground and disrupt Russian operations.
Address Logistical Challenges: Ensure the efficient flow of supplies, including ammunition, fuel, and medical supplies, to frontline units. Anticipate and mitigate any logistical challenges caused by Russian advances or attacks on infrastructure.
Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the intensity of the fighting, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry and securing long-term military and financial aid from international partners.
Enhance Air Defense: Deploy additional air defense systems to protect critical infrastructure and population centers from drone and missile attacks, particularly in areas experiencing increased Russian activity.
Utilize FPV Drones: Increase the deployment and use of FPV drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks on Russian positions, vehicles, and personnel, particularly in the Kursk region.
Train and Equip Troops: Provide specialized training to troops on the use of new technologies, such as the reconnaissance spheres and counter-drone systems. Ensure that troops are adequately equipped with the necessary weapons and protective gear.
Monitor Russian Movements: Continuously monitor Russian troop movements and deployments, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, to anticipate potential offensives and adjust defensive strategies accordingly.
Secure Communication Lines: Ensure secure and reliable communication between all levels of command and frontline units to facilitate effective coordination and response to enemy actions.
Address Potential Escalation: Be prepared for potential escalation in the conflict, particularly in the Kursk region, and develop contingency plans to address any new threats or challenges.
Focus on Morale: Maintain high morale among troops by providing them with the necessary support, resources, and recognition for their efforts. Address any concerns or issues promptly to prevent demoralization.
Adapt to New Technologies: Continuously assess and adapt to new technologies being deployed by both sides, such as the Russian use of fiber-optic-controlled drones and the Ukrainian use of reconnaissance spheres. Develop countermeasures and utilize these technologies to gain an advantage.
Exploit Intelligence: Utilize intelligence gathered from reconnaissance drones, captured enemy soldiers, and other sources to identify weaknesses in Russian defenses and plan targeted attacks.
Protect Population Centers: Strengthen defenses around major population centers, such as Kharkiv and Kupyansk, to protect civilians from Russian attacks and maintain stability in these areas.
Coordinate with Allies: Maintain close coordination with international allies, particularly the US and EU, to ensure a unified response to Russian aggression and to secure continued support for Ukraine.
Prepare for Potential Negotiations: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, remain open to potential negotiations to end the conflict. Develop a clear strategy for any future talks, ensuring that Ukraine's interests are protected.
Address Humanitarian Concerns: Provide assistance to civilians affected by the conflict, particularly in areas experiencing intense fighting. Coordinate with humanitarian organizations to ensure the delivery of aid and the protection of civilians.
Counter Russian Information Operations: Address and counter any disinformation or propaganda spread by Russian sources, particularly regarding the situation in the Kursk region. Provide accurate and timely information to the public and international community.
Investigate War Crimes: Document and investigate any potential war crimes committed by Russian forces, such as the alleged shooting of unarmed soldiers in the Kursk region. Share evidence with international organizations and pursue accountability for those responsible.
Exploit New Drone Capabilities: Maximize the use of the new reconnaissance spheres to gather intelligence on Russian troop movements, positions, and equipment. Utilize this information to plan targeted attacks and disrupt Russian operations.
Target Russian Command and Control: Utilize intelligence gathered from drones and other sources to identify and target Russian command and control centers, disrupting their ability to coordinate and direct their forces.
Enhance Electronic Warfare Capabilities: Invest in and deploy electronic warfare systems to counter Russian drones, disrupt their communications, and protect Ukrainian forces from enemy surveillance.
Train for Urban Warfare: Given the increasing focus on urban areas like Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka, provide specialized training to troops on urban warfare tactics and strategies.
Secure Supply Lines: Protect and secure key supply lines, particularly those leading to frontline positions, to ensure the continuous flow of essential resources to troops.
Develop Counter-Mobility Measures: Implement counter-mobility measures, such as the deployment of anti-tank mines and obstacles, to slow down Russian advances and channel their movements into areas where they can be more effectively targeted.
Utilize Asymmetric Warfare Tactics: Employ asymmetric warfare tactics, such as ambushes, hit-and-run attacks, and sabotage, to disrupt Russian operations and inflict casualties while minimizing Ukrainian losses.
Prepare for Potential Chemical Attacks: Given the historical use of chemical weapons in the region, prepare for the possibility of chemical attacks by Russian forces. Equip troops with protective gear and train them on decontamination procedures.
Monitor Russian Air Activity: Continuously monitor Russian air activity, particularly the use of Su-34 fighter-bombers and Mi-28NM helicopters, to anticipate potential airstrikes and deploy air defenses accordingly.
Exploit Intelligence on Russian Losses: Utilize intelligence on Russian losses, such as the reported destruction of numerous "Baba Yaga" drones, to assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics and adjust strategies accordingly.
Enhance Cooperation with Local Forces: Strengthen cooperation with local defense forces and civilian resistance groups to gather intelligence, disrupt Russian operations, and enhance the overall defense effort.
Address Potential Infiltration: Be vigilant for potential infiltration by Russian agents or collaborators, particularly in areas near the front lines. Implement security measures to identify and neutralize any internal threats.
Prepare for Long-Term Defense: Given the protracted nature of the conflict, prepare for a long-term defensive posture. Invest in fortifications, establish multiple lines of defense, and ensure the sustainability of the war effort.
Study and Counter New Russian Technology: Conduct a thorough analysis of the "Courier" ground robotic complex's capabilities and develop countermeasures. This may involve developing similar technologies or acquiring systems capable of neutralizing such threats.
Enhance Intelligence Gathering on New Technologies: Increase efforts to gather intelligence on new military technologies being developed and deployed by Russia. This will help Ukraine anticipate and prepare for new threats on the battlefield.
Monitor Drone Activity near Kyiv: Given the report of a drone near Kyiv, reinforce air defenses in the region and ensure that early warning systems are functioning properly. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
Provide Aid to Zaporizhzhia: Ensure that the wounded in Zaporizhzhia receive the necessary medical care and that those affected by the attacks have access to shelter and other essential resources.
Disseminate Information: Share the contact information for the Zaporizhzhia city call center and the regional administration's hotline widely to ensure that those in need can access assistance.
Counter Disinformation: Address the claims made in the video about the alleged attack in Selidovo. Provide accurate information about the incident and counter any false narratives being spread.
Investigate Corruption Allegations: Investigate the allegations of bribery against the former deputy head of the Kirov Military Medical Academy. Take appropriate action if the allegations are found to be true.
Support Gaza: Acknowledge the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and consider providing support or assistance if possible.
Diplomatic Efforts: Engage with international partners to address the issue of North Korean involvement in the conflict and seek their support in condemning such actions.
Monitor Panama Situation: Keep a close eye on the situation in Panama following the US Secretary of State's planned visit and Trump's statements about control over the Panama Canal.
Internal Investigations: Conduct internal investigations into the legality of weapons seized from Russian officials to ensure transparency and accountability.
Counter Drone Strategy: Develop a specific strategy to counter the Russian use of captured and modified Ukrainian drones, including electronic warfare and cyber warfare measures.
Address Potential Threat from Tactical Aviation: Given the reported activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern front, deploy additional air defense systems and fighter jets to counter this threat. Monitor airspace closely and be prepared to intercept any hostile aircraft.
Secure Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia: Given the air raid alerts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, reinforce air defenses in these cities and ensure that early warning systems are functioning properly. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
Investigate Allegations of Corruption: Conduct a thorough and transparent investigation into the allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military, as reported by Colonelcassad. Take appropriate action against any individuals found guilty of such crimes. This is crucial to maintain morale and public trust in the military.
Counter Russian Advances in Pokrovsk Direction: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter Russian advances in Zverevo, towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka.
Monitor Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Monitor Hurivka: Given the new report of a drone flying through Hurivka, deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to the area to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Address Potential Impact of US Border Closure: Analyze the potential impact of the US border closure on Ukraine's situation, particularly regarding the availability of US military aid and resources. Develop contingency plans to address any potential negative consequences.
Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the potential shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding aid to Ukraine. Engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support.
Monitor Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Defend Nikopol: Given the reports of drones near Nikopol, strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to the area to protect against potential attacks.
Address Potential Escalation: Be prepared for potential escalation in drone attacks, particularly in the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions. Strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to counter these threats.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions.
Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
Monitor Drone Activity: Continuously monitor and track drone movements, particularly in the Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy regions. Deploy air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the drone threat.
Strengthen Air Defenses in Zaporizhzhia: Given the recent drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia, deploy additional air defense systems to the city and surrounding areas to intercept incoming drones and protect critical infrastructure. Immediately address the situation in Zaporizhzhia, rescuing those trapped under rubble and providing medical assistance to the wounded. Deploy additional air defense systems and emergency response teams to the city.
Utilize Western Aid: Maximize the use of the recently announced 35 billion euro financial aid package from the EU to procure necessary military equipment, including air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and ammunition.
Adapt and Innovate: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. Utilize innovative technologies, such as the new DJI Matrice 4T drone, to enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities.
Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the geopolitical tensions, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry and securing long-term military and financial aid from international partners.

The new messages bring the following updates:

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that "Solntsepek" and "Tosochka" systems destroyed Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) shelters in the Kharkiv region. This suggests continued heavy Russian bombardment in the area.
North Korean soldiers are reportedly fighting alongside Russian forces in the Kursk region. This could indicate a deepening of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
Russian forces have reportedly captured the village of Zakhidne north of Kupyansk, further solidifying their presence in the Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian forces are using drones equipped with shotguns to shoot down Russian drones, demonstrating innovative counter-drone tactics.
Russian forces are employing a new tactic of dropping reconnaissance spheres from FPV drones, allowing for extended surveillance of Ukrainian positions. This represents a technological advancement in their reconnaissance capabilities.
The 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade reportedly ambushed and destroyed a group from the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk region. This signifies a successful Ukrainian counterattack and a significant blow to Russian forces.
Russian military bloggers are accused of spreading disinformation about an all-female assault company being sent from Crimea to Kursk. This highlights the ongoing information warfare aspect of the conflict.
A Russian soldier reportedly confessed to shooting unarmed Russian soldiers and committing other crimes in the Kursk region. This could indicate internal issues and low morale within Russian forces.
Ukrainian FPV drones are increasingly targeting and destroying Russian infantry and equipment, demonstrating their effectiveness in close combat situations.
Russian forces are reportedly fighting on the outskirts of Sverdlikovo, but have not yet entered the settlement. This suggests that reports of rapid Russian advances may be exaggerated.
A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but missed the target. This indicates that while Russian drone capabilities are significant, they are not always successful.
A Russian tank was targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region, highlighting the vulnerability of even heavily armored vehicles to drone attacks.
Operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group are using FPV drones to target and destroy Ukrainian self-propelled artillery units near the Sukhyi Yaly River. This demonstrates the ongoing tactical use of drones by Russian forces.
An FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroyed a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region, showcasing the effectiveness of Russian drones against Western-supplied equipment.
A destroyed armored "Буханка" called "Коналю-2963" was reported in the Kursk region, providing insight into the types of vehicles being used in the conflict.
Video evidence shows a group of operators from the FPV GВ "North" chasing and destroying a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk border area, highlighting the continued use of drones in anti-tank warfare.
The "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is engaged in fighting near Glubokoye, indicating ongoing clashes in that area.
New video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border, demonstrating the continued threat posed by Russian loitering munitions.
Russian forces are using drones to hunt Ukrainian infantry near Kupyansk, showcasing the adaptability of drone technology for various combat roles.
Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, are being used to destroy Ukrainian Leopard tanks and strongholds, indicating a technological advancement in Russian drone capabilities.
Russian FPV drone operators are targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations, highlighting the widespread use of drones in the conflict.
Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka, demonstrating the use of drones in night operations.
A Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye, showcasing the continued use of loitering munitions by Russian forces.
Video evidence shows the moment of drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region, highlighting the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to drone attacks.
An animated map shows the routes of Russian cruise missiles and Geran drones targeting Ukraine on January 24-25, 2025, providing insight into Russian targeting strategies.
A Russian "Molniya" drone struck the ground near a house in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, causing damage but no casualties. This indicates continued Russian drone activity in the region.
Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering. This suggests significant Ukrainian losses in the area.
Russian aviation struck with FAB-3000 in the north-eastern part of Sudzha and the northern outskirts of Honcharivka, demonstrating the use of heavy aerial bombs by Russian forces.
Russian forces are reportedly bypassing Sudzha from the south and fighting near Kurylivka, indicating a potential encirclement maneuver.
In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region, suggesting a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive or reinforcement.
Nikolayevo-Daryino has been cleared, with the enemy making careless and unsuccessful counterattacks, indicating a consolidation of Russian control in the area.
Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel, highlighting continued clashes in the region.
Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area of the Kursk region, showcasing the use of heavy weaponry by Russian forces.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2 in the Kursk region using artillery and FPV drones, demonstrating the combined use of

Situation Report