Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 21:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar.

• Velyka Novosilka: The encirclement by Russian forces is complete. Ukrainian troops are blocked in the north and south, with the only remaining escape route on foot towards Blagodatnoye. The Ukrainian command acknowledges the risk of an operational encirclement. Russian forces are using Grad MLRS to target the city at night. The distance between advancing Russian units is reported to be between 2.2 and 3.7 km. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance. They are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city. Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies the city is under threat of encirclement. Russian artillery destroyed Ukrainian positions in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk), including two FH70 howitzers, one M777 howitzer, and 17 soldiers.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces. They control approximately 20% of the refractory plant. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant. They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces making significant advances. They have reportedly captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled. Russian forces are regaining territory. They have reportedly captured several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino. In the Kursk direction, there were 15 combat clashes from the beginning of the day. All attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings. Video evidence shows an armored group of the special forces "Akhmat" repelling a Ukrainian counterattack and advancing near Sudzha. Ukrainian servicemen of the "Chernomorskaya Sech" battalion are accused of committing terrorist acts in the Kursk region. The case has been sent to court, according to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian drone attacks have successfully targeted oil refineries and industrial facilities deep inside Russia. This includes the Ryazan refinery and the "Kreminy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys."

President Zelensky highlighted the ongoing use of Shahed drones by Russian forces. He emphasized that these drones are now being produced in Russia, specifically in Tatarstan. They rely heavily on foreign-supplied components. He stressed that these components are critical for Russia's ability to wage war. He called for a complete cutoff of these supplies to halt Russian aggression.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian troops are blocked in the north and south. The Ukrainian command acknowledges the risk of an operational encirclement.
  • The situation for Ukrainian forces is described as worse than in Vuhledar.
  • Russian forces are using Grad MLRS to target Velyka Novosilka at night. They are reportedly encircling the Ukrainian garrison in the center of the town.
  • The distance between advancing Russian units is reported to be between 2.2 and 3.7 km. This indicates that the pocket is completely under fire control by Russian forces.
  • Ukrainian forces report that some of their positions near Velyka Novosilka have been destroyed due to intensified Russian shelling.
  • Russian forces are reportedly organizing an evacuation of Ukrainian forces from Velyka Novosilka. The report suggests that while the Russian forces are attempting to facilitate a withdrawal, they are also facing challenges in maintaining communication, supplies, and evacuation routes due to the ongoing fighting. It also suggests that the Ukrainian 1st Presidential Brigade of the National Guard is being prioritized for evacuation, while regular infantry units from the 110th Mechanized Brigade are left to "hold the line" without adequate support.
  • Video evidence shows drone operators of the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade targeting Russian troops in the vicinity of the Sukhi Yali River.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • The distance between advancing Russian units is reported to be between 2.2 and 3.7 km. This indicates that the pocket is completely under fire control by Russian forces.
  • Russian forces are reportedly 2200 meters from completely encircling the town.
  • New video evidence shows the mass destruction of armored vehicles and enemy infantry near the boiler room.
  • The city is reportedly in a "semi-encirclement."
  • Video evidence purports to show the 40th Separate Brigade of the Ukrainian Coastal Defense Forces effectively engaging Russian targets with drones.
  • The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces are squeezing the remnants of the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They are trapped between the Kashlagach and Mokrye Yaly rivers.
  • Ukrainian forces report that some of their positions near Velyka Novosilka have been destroyed due to intensified Russian shelling.
  • A Ukrainian military officer has confirmed the dire situation in Velyka Novosilka. He stated that the settlement is under threat of an operational encirclement.
  • Russian forces are using the "Grad" MLRS to target Velyka Novosilka at night.
  • Russian forces are reportedly encircling the Ukrainian garrison in the center of Velyka Novosilka.
  • The Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka are reportedly surrounded.
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent the encirclement by focusing on positions north and south of Novy Komar.
  • Russian forces are using artillery and airstrikes to target Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilka.
  • The Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to cross the river in the northern part of Velyka Novosilka using improvised crossings.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian military logistics vehicles near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Nighttime video evidence shows Russian forces using Grad MLRS to target Velyka Novosilka. This further intensifies the assault on the already besieged town.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces from the "Vostok" group destroying a Ukrainian command post near Velyka Novosilka. Over 150 Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly killed, and the remaining forces are trapped.
  • New Update: Russian forces are advancing towards Leva from Velyka Novosilka.

• Pokrovsk:

  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance. They are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. They have also severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west.
  • Reports indicate a plan to cover the city from the southwest.
  • The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies the city is under threat of encirclement.
  • Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian drone communication equipment in Pokrovsk.
  • Russian artillery destroyed Ukrainian positions in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). This included two FH70 howitzers, one M777 howitzer, and 17 soldiers. They also destroyed a drone launch site. Four Warmate kamikaze drones and two FlyEye reconnaissance drones were destroyed in the Lazurny microdistrict.
  • In Gryshino, Russian airstrikes destroyed a temporary deployment point and a stabilization point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a local school. At least 30 soldiers were killed. Three JLTV Oshkosh armored vehicles and two Mercedes Zetros trucks were also destroyed.
  • In Dmytrovo, Russian forces destroyed two 2B11 120-mm mortars and eight Ukrainian soldiers.
  • "Azov" forces are reportedly conducting counterattacks in the Pokrovsk direction. They are described as more like raids before retreating without securing positions.
  • Russian artillery is heavily shelling Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk.
  • Reports of the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" potentially ceasing operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine.
  • Operators of the "Pulstron" complex of the 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces report successfully targeting and destroying Russian military equipment and personnel.
  • Heavy fighting continues, with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
  • Fighting is ongoing in the areas of Shevchenko, Udachne, Baranivka, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Uspenivka, Slovyanka, and Petropavlivka.
  • Russian assault troops have reportedly captured a ventilation shaft of a mine west of Kotlyne.
  • Russian forces have reportedly begun fighting in Zverevo.
  • Russian forces are reportedly forcibly evacuating children from Pokrovsk.
  • West of Volkovo and north of Solenoye, Russian forces have reportedly advanced 3.6 km, encompassing the entire "pocket."
  • Heavy fighting is reported in Udachnoye.
  • Following the liberation of Baranovka, Russian forces are clearing positions on the opposite high bank of the river. This is where the enemy had controlled the village.
  • Fighting continues west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye.
  • Russian forces have liberated Baranovka.
  • They are within 5-7 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. They are intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city.
  • The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of key supply lines significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement.
  • Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka.
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to use drones to target Russian troops in a ruined structure in an effort to save Pokrovsk.
  • Video shows missile trails and reports that Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city.
  • Russian forces have advanced along forested areas southwest of Slavyanka.
  • Fighting continues south of Petrovpavlovka and Shevchenko, moving towards Andriivka.
  • Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian drone communication equipment in Pokrovsk.
  • In Krasnoarmiisk, Russian artillery destroyed Ukrainian positions. This included two FH70 howitzers, one M777 howitzer, and 17 soldiers.
  • "Дневник Десантника" reports that Russian forces have destroyed two FH70 howitzers, one M777 howitzer, and 17 Ukrainian soldiers in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). They also destroyed a drone launch site and four Warmate kamikaze drones and two FlyEye reconnaissance drones in the Lazurny microdistrict. In Gryshino, Russian airstrikes destroyed a temporary deployment point and a stabilization point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a local school, killing at least 30 soldiers and destroying three JLTV Oshkosh armored vehicles and two Mercedes Zetros trucks.
  • New Update: Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces. They control approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
  • They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant. They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district.
  • Heavy fighting continues with Russian forces making significant advances. They have reportedly captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district.
  • Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
  • The basements and workshops of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar have been completely cleared.
  • New Update: Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive. There are ongoing штурмовые actions by Russian troops, and tactical successes. Video evidence shows the 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard targeting Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar. Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces reportedly seizing the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back. South of the Novyi microdistrict in the forest area on the territory of the Mir and Bunker children's camp, Russian forces dislodged the enemy from the buildings and eliminated an enemy group. Russian forces cleared the forest area and advanced another 800 meters. Near the Dniprovskyi pond in Chasov Yar, Russian artillerymen from the "Grad" MLRS engaged enemy positions. Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area. Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Reports of Russian forces making significant advances in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and engaging in battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant. Russian forces have reportedly advanced 500 meters in the center of Chasiv Yar. About half of the city's urban area is under Russian control. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant. Tactical successes are reported, with the 200th Brigade pushing the enemy out of the "Десятый" microdistrict and currently liberating the "Новосеверный" microdistrict. Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant. The 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard targeted Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar. The "Rodnya" Battalion is reporting from within Chasiv Yar, indicating ongoing fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces. The battalion's current focus is on securing the flanks to the north and south of the city rather than immediate urban clearing operations. The main events are now unfolding in Velyka Novosilka, where the defense has transitioned into a phase of agony, in Dzerzhinsk, where our forces are gradually pushing the defense at the mine, and in Chasiv Yar, where the battles for the high-rise quarter are of key importance. The enemy may lose these three major settlements quite soon.

• Kurakhove:

  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces. Fighting is ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
  • Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
  • They have reportedly advanced in the southern part of Nov আন্দ্রিভকা. They have occupied several forest strips south of Ukrainka.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to counterattack near Zelenovka and Andreevka. This is to prevent the "pocket" from closing and allowing their forces to escape.
  • New Update: Northeast of the liberated Kurakhove, Russian forces are conducting raids near Andriivka. To the west and northwest, Russian forces are applying pressure, but their activity has decreased in the past few days, likely due to rotations and regrouping. Positional fighting is reported in the Kurakhove - Dachne area. Russian assault units reportedly captured new positions north of the Kurakhove sludge dumps, advancing 1.5 km west along the Dachne - Yantarne line. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Clashes were reported near Vremivka, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka. Active combat operations are reported near Kurakhove. Most of Kurakhove is under Russian control, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno and for strongholds. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank. Reports of fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka. Positional fighting is reported in the Kurakhove - Dachne area. Russian assault units reportedly captured new positions north of the Kurakhove sludge dumps, advancing 1.5 km west along the Dachne - Yantarne line. Active combat operations are ongoing in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.

• Toretsk:

  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed. Less than 15% of the city is under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
  • Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk. They are engaging in close-quarters combat.

• Kramatorsk:

  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
  • Russian forces are reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.

• Zverevo:

  • The fighting in Zverevo continues. Russian forces are gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.

• Solene:

  • Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.

• Uspenivka:

  • Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

• Dachnoe:

  • New Update: A video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces in Dachnoe, in support of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division's offensive in the Kurakhove direction.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanovka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka. They have taken control of a forest area between the settlements. They are continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
• Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled. Russian forces are regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• A U.S.-made Abrams tank was reportedly rendered inoperable by a Russian Lancet loitering munition near Viktorovka.
• Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
• Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruglенькое failed.
• Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka.
• Russian forces report that Nikolaevo-Daryino is under their control. Airborne troops are advancing further into Ukrainian territory.
• Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnovka.
• In the area of Kruhlenke/Viktorivka, Russian assault units have entered Viktorivka. They are attempting to establish a foothold. Offensive actions are being conducted towards the settlement of Nikolske.
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces have inflicted damage in the Kursk region amounting to 750 billion rubles.
• Commissions are beginning work to assess the destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• About 1,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been killed in the region while fighting against Ukraine.
• British intelligence reports that approximately 4,000 North Korean soldiers were killed in the Kursk region.
• From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction. All attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
• In the area of Kruhlenke/Viktorivka, Russian assault units have entered Viktorivka. They are attempting to establish a foothold. Offensive actions are being conducted towards the settlement of Nikolske.
• Russian forces, specifically Ussuri paratroopers, have reportedly fully liberated Nikolayevo-Daryino.
• Russian naval infantry are reportedly continuing to engage Ukrainian forces in Kurilovka and its surroundings.
• Ukrainian forces are reportedly increasing their presence in the Sudzha border area. Two newly formed battalions of the 210th separate infantry brigade "Berlingo" are expected to be deployed.
• Video evidence shows an armored group of the special forces "Akhmat" repelling a Ukrainian counterattack and advancing near Sudzha.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing trophies in liberated Russkoye Porechnoye. This included Belgian thermobaric weapons, a Swedish-made grenade launcher, and U.S.-made 40-mm grenades.
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces have inflicted damage in the Kursk region amounting to 750 billion rubles.
• A coordination council has been created in the Kursk region to address the problems of residents in the border areas. The council will include not only officials, representatives of law enforcement and supervisory authorities but also the citizens themselves.
• Ukrainian servicemen of the "Chernomorskaya Sech" battalion are accused of committing terrorist acts in the Kursk region. The case has been sent to court, according to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation.
• "Два майора" reports that a team of drone operators called "Moisei" is operating in the Kursk region.
• Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
• A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
• A successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
• Russian forces successfully employed a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
• "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region. Russian forces are advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
• Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region.
• A Russian Ka-52M helicopter conducted strikes on Ukrainian armor and personnel in the Kursk border area.
• Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
• Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
• New Update: Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. Video details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye. Video shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows drone pilots engaging a target in the Kursk region border area. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region. New video shows a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region. A medic from the "Chestnut" unit saved 300 soldiers during the fighting in the Kursk region. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. Video shows a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region. New video shows Ukrainian soldiers interrogating a captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region using Google Translate. An update from the Russian Ministry of Defense states that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region. Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruglенькое failed. Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka. Russian forces report that Nikolaevo-Daryino is under their control and that airborne troops are advancing further into Ukrainian territory. Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnovka. Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with a sniper rifle in the Kursk region. The drone was reportedly part of a group of 39 "Baba Yaga" drones that have been destroyed in the area since January 1st. A Lancet loitering munition destroyed a tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk border area. The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements. Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery strikes engaged AFU manpower and hardware near several settlements. Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar. Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. Video evidence confirms the complete liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino. Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking. Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor. A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruglенькое failed. Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka. Russian forces report that Nikolaevo-Daryino is under their control and that airborne troops are advancing further into Ukrainian territory. Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnovka.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: One drone is approaching Balakliia. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya. They have occupied the forest near Zapadnoye. They have advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
• On the right bank of the Oskol, Russian forces are continuing to push through Ukrainian defenses. They are expanding their control zone towards the western part of Dvurichna in the direction of Sagunivka.
• Fighting continues in the area of Zelenyi Hai. Ukrainian forces are attempting to improve their tactical position by attacking from Borova Andriivka.
• Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions.

Changes Brought by New Messages

Military Situation:

• Drone Warfare:
  • Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian drone carrying a battery with a sticker from the Czech Republic's Air Reconnaissance unit. This confirms the Czech Republic's military support for Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces report receiving 260 more drones, totaling 139,197 FPV drones.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying a rare Swedish Bgbv 90 armored recovery vehicle on the border of the Kursk and Sumy regions.
• Donetsk Region:
  • Former Ukrainian General Yuri Galushkin, previously released on bail, has been re-arrested. He is accused of causing the loss of part of the Kharkiv region to Russian forces.
• Kursk Region:
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying another Russian assault column in the Kursk region.
  • Russian forces report destroying a rare Swedish Bgbv 90 armored recovery vehicle on the border of the Kursk and Sumy regions.
• Drone Movements:
  • 5 drones are flying over the Berislav district towards Bereznegovatoe.
  • 1 drone flew over Pokrov in a northerly direction.
  • 2 drones are flying over Pavlograd in a northerly direction.
  • 6 drones are in the Kremenchug region, heading northwest.
  • 2 drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • 1 drone is moving from the Kharkiv region to the Dnepropetrovsk region, and 1 to the Poltava region.
  • 3 drones are moving from the Sumy region to the Poltava region.
  • New reports indicate drone movements:
    • Groups of drones are moving along the border of the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading northwest.
    • Drones are in the east of the Mykolaiv region, heading northwest.
    • Drones are in the north of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
    • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
    • Drones are in the west of the Kharkiv region, heading west.
    • Drones are in the south and center of the Poltava region, heading north.
    • Drones are in the west of the Poltava region, heading west.
    • Drones are in the north of the Sumy region, heading south.
    • Drones are in the east of the Cherkasy region, heading north.
    • Drones are on the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading north.
    • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
    • Drones are in the Nikopol area, heading towards Kryvyi Rih.

Political/Economic Situation:

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days. This likely includes military aid to Ukraine, Jordan, and Taiwan. Aid to Israel and Egypt will continue. The order was issued by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended. Over 1 million people have not yet been re-evaluated.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus. Russian equipment is being removed from the port. The new leader of Syria congratulated Trump on the start of his work as President of the United States.
• Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks on Brovary and Hlevakha were produced in Russia but rely on foreign components. He called for a complete cutoff of these supplies to stop Russian aggression.
• Russia-Immigration: Russia has tightened the rules for obtaining temporary residence permits and residency permits to combat fictitious marriages and paternity for the purpose of obtaining immigration status.
• Hamas Leader Killed: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was reportedly killed in action in the Gaza Strip while fighting alongside his troops.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated for Ukrainian forces, with a marked escalation in drone warfare targeting regions deep inside Russia. Russian forces continue to make substantial advances in the Donetsk region, with the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka nearing completion and a continued push towards Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces inflicting heavy losses and destroying a rare Swedish armored recovery vehicle. Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold their positions, and the re-arrest of a former Ukrainian general accused of losing territory highlights internal challenges.

The most significant development is the major escalation in drone warfare, with Ukrainian drones now targeting the Moscow region, indicating an expansion of the conflict's geographical