Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 16:38 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces achieving significant breakthroughs across multiple fronts. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is complete, and Russian troops have captured the town center, with Ukrainian forces fully retreating from the settlement. The situation in Pokrovsk is dire, with Russian forces advancing to within 5-7 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and intensifying efforts to encircle the city. They are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2, severing the penultimate railway line to the city. In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters. The basements and workshops of the refractory plant have been completely cleared.
Russian forces have made significant gains in other parts of the Donetsk region, capturing most of Kurakhove and advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanovka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian units. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory, including a recent attack on Kharkiv. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in the Kharkiv Oblast.
Geopolitical developments add further complexity, with newly elected US President Donald Trump threatening additional sanctions on Russia while seeking China's assistance in ending the war. Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gaspar suggests a shifting European approach to the Ukrainian issue. NATO is assembling a flotilla near Estonia to protect underwater cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea.
Major Updates
Velyka Novosilka
- Complete Encirclement and Capture: Russian forces have fully encircled and captured Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian troops have reportedly retreated from the settlement entirely.
- Evacuation Efforts: While reports indicated an organized evacuation of Ukrainian forces, it appears that regular infantry units from the 110th Mechanized Brigade were left to "hold the line" without adequate support.
- Continued Fighting: Despite the encirclement, fighting continues on the outskirts. Russian forces are using artillery and airstrikes, including guided bombs, to target Ukrainian positions.
- New Russian Advances: Russian forces have reportedly entered several surrounding settlements, including Dmytriv, Urozhaine, Novosergiyivka, Slovyanka, and Yasenove.
- Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian troops have hacked the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Velyka Novosilka.
- Russian troops are clearing buildings, basements, and strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Velyka Novosilka.
- Video evidence shows that Russian assault groups are advancing in Velyka Novosilka, with some Ukrainian soldiers surrendering while others remain in strongholds.
Pokrovsk
- Russian Advance: Russian troops are advancing towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road and are now within 5-7 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city.
- Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west, but the city is under threat of encirclement.
- Heavy Shelling: Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk), with Russian artillery and airstrikes destroying Ukrainian positions and a stabilization point, causing significant casualties.
- Logistical Challenges: Reports indicate potential operational cessation of the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine.
Chasiv Yar
- Russian Advances: Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts from the north side of the railway and have captured about half of the city's urban area. They are fighting in the Severnyi district and have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict.
- Ukrainian Defense: The 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard and the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" are actively engaging Russian forces.
- Continued Fighting: Video evidence shows ongoing battles near a refractory plant, with a group of Ukrainian soldiers reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket."
Other Key Locations in Donetsk Region
- Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces. Active combat operations are reported, with Russian forces advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk.
- Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with Russian forces entering Petrivka.
- Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone.
- Zverevo: Fighting continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces back.
- Solene: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
- Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka.
Luhansk Region
- Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also made gains near Makiivka, Terny, and Yampolivka.
Kursk Region
- Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory. Heavy fighting continues, with Ukrainian forces launching constant counterattacks.
- Drone Warfare: Extensive use of drones by both sides, with reports of Ukrainian drones recording bodies of North Korean and Russian troops.
- Casualties: British intelligence reports approximately 4,000 North Korean soldiers killed in the region. Russian forces report significant Ukrainian losses in personnel and equipment.
- Russian Advances: Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Malaya Loknya, and progress in Kurilovka.
Kharkiv Region
- Russian troops destroyed another tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the border area of the Kharkiv region.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in the Kharkiv Oblast.
- A Russian drone reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, injuring one person.
- New: An explosion was heard in Kharkiv. The governor of the region, Sinegubov, reports a drone attack in the private sector of the Osnovyansky district of Kharkiv. No casualties have been reported.
Geopolitical Developments
- US-Russia Relations: US President Donald Trump threatens new sanctions against Russia if Putin refuses to negotiate, while also calling on China to help end the war.
- Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: Reports suggest Trump is planning a conversation with Putin after his inauguration to discuss a personal meeting aimed at stopping the war.
- Shifting European Approach: Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker indicates a changing European approach to Ukraine, accusing NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of using Russia as a scare tactic.
- NATO Activity: A NATO flotilla is assembling near Estonia to protect Baltic Sea infrastructure.
- Zelenskyy-Herzog Meeting: Presidents Zelenskyy and Herzog discuss Ukrainian-Israeli cooperation, focusing on security challenges.
- Russian Readiness for Negotiations: Putin expresses Russia's readiness for negotiations but points to obstacles posed by the Ukrainian government and external sponsors.
- Head of the EU diplomacy Kaja Kallas invited the new US Secretary of State to a meeting with EU representatives.
Other Developments
- Drone Warfare: Confirmed drone attacks inside Russian territory, targeting various locations, including Almetyevsk, Voronezh, Tula, Smolensk, and Tatarstan. Airports in several Russian cities are closed due to drone attacks.
- Drone Activity: Reports of numerous drones across various Ukrainian regions.
- Fundraising for Russian Special Forces: Ongoing campaign to support a Russian unit operating in the Donetsk direction.
- Propaganda and Disinformation: Both sides are actively engaged in propaganda efforts.
- Humanitarian Concerns: The conflict continues to raise concerns about the humanitarian situation, particularly in areas with heavy fighting.
- Economic Impact: The war continues to have a profound impact on the economies of Ukraine, Russia, and global markets.
- In Nizhyn, Chernihiv region, Russian troops struck a long-range UAV launch site, destroying a radar station, a satellite communication complex, and an automated flight control system.
Key Updates from Previous Situation (6h-3d old)
- Velyka Novosilka: The encirclement is complete, with the distance between advancing Russian units indicating the pocket is under fire control.
- Drone Warfare: Extensive activity across multiple regions, with confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory.
- Geopolitical Developments: US President Donald Trump is threatening additional sanctions on Russia and seeking China's assistance in ending the war.
- New Russian Advances: Russian assault units have entered Viktorivka and are attempting to establish a foothold.
- New Technology: The Republic of Buryatia is ready to supply large batches of the "Courier" ground robotic complex (НРТК) to the troops.
- Russian troops destroyed another tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the border area of the Kharkiv region.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in the Dnipropetrovsk region heading towards Zaporizhzhia. A drone has been reported in the south of Chernihiv region, heading south. Drones are also reported in Poltava region, heading west.
- Russian forces are reportedly attaching "hawk claws" to drones to hunt enemy drones.
- Russian motorized rifle units have demonstrated captured Western-made weapons from the liberated village of Russkoe Porechnoe.
- A Russian economist predicts that if Trump wins, the Ukrainians will be used to fight immigrants and quell dissatisfaction in Europe.
Changes from New Messages
- Drone Attack on Kharkiv: Confirmed drone attack on Kharkiv, with a hit in the Osnovyansky district.
- Drone Movements: Reports of drone movements in Chernihiv and Sumy regions.
- Fundraising for Ukrainian Forces: A call for donations to support the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade.
These updates necessitate a continued focus on air defense, particularly in Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions, as well as ongoing efforts to counter Russian propaganda and secure financial support for Ukrainian forces.
