Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 15:38 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have achieved substantial gains, notably the complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka and advances near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 189 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with 89 of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
Major Updates
Velyka Novosilka
Encirclement and Capture: Russian forces have completed the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka, with Ukrainian troops blocked in the north and south. The Ukrainian command acknowledges the risk of an operational encirclement. Russian assault units have reportedly captured the center of the town, and Ukrainian forces have allegedly retreated from the settlement entirely. Ukrainian military sources confirm that the 110th Mechanized Brigade is trapped between the Kashlagach and Mokrye Yaly rivers.
Evacuation Efforts: Reports indicate that Russian forces are organizing an evacuation of Ukrainian forces from Velyka Novosilka. The report suggests that while the Russian forces are attempting to facilitate a withdrawal, they are also facing challenges in maintaining communication, supplies, and evacuation routes due to the ongoing fighting. It also suggests that the Ukrainian 1st Presidential Brigade of the National Guard is being prioritized for evacuation, while regular infantry units from the 110th Mechanized Brigade are left to "hold the line" without adequate support.
Continued Fighting: Despite the encirclement, fighting continues on the outskirts, with Russian forces using artillery and airstrikes to target Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent the encirclement by focusing on positions north and south of Novy Komar. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using mortars, "Baba Yaga" drones, and tanks to destroy Russian forces and equipment. Russian forces are reportedly within 3 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova.
New Russian Advances: Russian forces have reportedly entered Dmytriv and are advancing to the west and north of the settlement, as well as having severed the railway line and highway. They also claim to have entered Urozhaine and Novosergiyivka and to have liberated Slovyanka and Yasenove. Russian forces have begun storming the southern, eastern, and western parts of Velyka Novosilka.
Heavy Shelling and Airstrikes: Russian forces are using Grad MLRS to target Velyka Novosilka at night and are reportedly encircling the Ukrainian garrison in the center of the town. Russian forces conducted airstrikes with guided bombs near several settlements. Video evidence shows Russian forces from the "Vostok" group destroying a Ukrainian command post near Velyka Novosilka. Over 150 Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly killed, and the remaining forces are trapped.
Pokrovsk
Russian Advance: Russian troops are advancing towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road and are reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city. They are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2, and severing the penultimate railway line to the city. Russian forces are within 5-7 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city.
Ukrainian Defense: Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west, and reports indicate a plan to cover the city from the southwest. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies the city is under threat of encirclement. Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezugla claims that Russian forces have entered Pokrovsk. However, this claim is disputed by other Ukrainian sources, including the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia," which states that fierce battles are ongoing on the outskirts but denies Russian presence in the city.
Heavy Shelling: Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). Russian artillery destroyed Ukrainian positions in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk), including two FH70 howitzers, one M777 howitzer, and 17 soldiers. In Gryshino, Russian airstrikes destroyed a temporary deployment point and a stabilization point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a local school, killing at least 30 soldiers.
Logistical Challenges: Reports of the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" potentially ceasing operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine. Retreating Ukrainian forces blew up the Belitskaya mine in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
Chasiv Yar
Russian Advances: Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts from the north side of the railway. They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters. The basements and workshops of the refractory plant have been completely cleared.
Ukrainian Defense: The 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard is reportedly targeting Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar. The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" shows the destruction of Russian forces, including four dozen "motorpikes" who launched an assault north of Vesele.
Continued Fighting: Video evidence shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant, and fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant.
Other Key Locations in Donetsk Region
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno. Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out. Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk, engaging in close-quarters combat.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
Zverevo: The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.
Solene: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Luhansk Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanovka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
Svatove-Kremenna Direction: Russian forces advanced on three fronts, extending control near Terny and securing new positions near Yampolivka. Clashes were reported near Kopanky, Terny, and Kolodyazi.
Kursk Region
Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units. Heavy fighting continues, with Ukrainian forces launching constant counterattacks, slowing Russian progress.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces are using drones to target Ukrainian positions and equipment. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
Casualties: British intelligence reports that approximately 4,000 North Korean soldiers were killed in the Kursk region. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
Russian Advances: Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka.
Damage and Losses: The Ukrainian Armed Forces have inflicted damage in the Kursk region amounting to 750 billion rubles. Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
Geopolitical Developments
US-Russia Relations: Newly elected US President Donald Trump stated he will impose additional sanctions on Russia if Putin does not agree to peace talks. He also called on Chinese leader Xi Jinping to help end the war in Ukraine and confirmed his intention to speak with Putin soon. Putin called his relations with Trump trusting and pragmatic.
Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: US President-elect Donald Trump has reportedly instructed to organize a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin after the inauguration. The purpose of the call is reportedly to discuss a personal meeting in the coming months to try to stop the war in Ukraine.
Shifting European Approach to Ukraine: Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gaspar stated that Europe's approach to the Ukrainian issue is changing and that the coming weeks will be decisive. Gaspar accused NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of using Russia as a scare tactic for Europeans. Gaspar stated that the endless story of helping Ukraine should end.
NATO Activity: A NATO flotilla is assembling near the coast of Estonia to protect European underwater cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea. A Dutch frigate, a naval research vessel, and a German minesweeper have arrived in Tallinn, with a French minesweeper and additional NATO ships expected.
New Sanctions Against Russia: The new US president, Donald Trump, has allowed for new sanctions against Russia if Putin refuses to negotiate. When asked about further military aid to Ukraine, Trump said he would consider this issue and stressed that the EU should increase its contribution to the level of the US.
New US Restrictions: The new US president, Donald Trump, has banned the use of LGBT and BLM flags on government buildings, embassies, and military bases around the world. The State Department decree states that only the US flag and some military symbols are now allowed to be displayed on government buildings. Under Biden, other flags such as LGBT and BLM were often added to them. Earlier, Trump issued a decree that only two genders are recognized in the US - male and female.
Zelenskyy-Herzog Meeting: President Zelenskyy also met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog to discuss important issues of Ukrainian-Israeli cooperation. They discussed common challenges, interaction primarily in the security sphere, and ways to achieve a just peace for Ukraine. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude for the return of people who were held captive.
Russian Readiness for Negotiations: Putin expressed Russia's readiness for negotiations regarding Ukraine, emphasizing the need for a pragmatic approach. However, he also pointed out the obstacles posed by the Ukrainian government's stance and the influence of external sponsors.
Trump's Alleged Plans: Reports suggest that former US President Donald Trump intends to engage in discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon after his inauguration, with the aim of potentially ending the conflict in Ukraine. This has sparked speculation and debate about the possible implications of such a move.
Other Developments
Drone Warfare: Drone attacks inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure, including Almetyevsk, Voronezh, Tula, Smolensk, and Tatarstan. Airports in Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks. New explosions have been reported in Kazan, Russia, affecting several districts.
Drone Activity: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, and Odesa. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions.
Fundraising for Russian Special Forces: A fundraising campaign is ongoing to support a Russian special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, with requests for donations of quadcopters, parts, and body armor.
Propaganda and Disinformation: Both sides are actively engaged in propaganda efforts, with Russia highlighting its military successes and Ukraine emphasizing the brutality of Russian forces and the need for international support.
Humanitarian Concerns: The ongoing conflict continues to raise concerns about the humanitarian situation, particularly in areas experiencing heavy fighting. The impact on civilians, including casualties, displacement, and access to essential services, remains a significant issue.
Economic Impact: The war continues to have a profound impact on the economies of both Ukraine and Russia, as well as global markets. Sanctions, disruptions to trade and supply chains, and the cost of military operations are all contributing to economic instability.
This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the current military situation in Ukraine, highlighting key developments, strategic implications, and ongoing challenges. The situation remains fluid and subject to rapid changes based on battlefield developments and geopolitical shifts.
