Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 12:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including a massive Ukrainian drone attack targeting various regions within Russia. The sheer number of drones intercepted (170 according to Russian sources) indicates the scale of this tactic. The attacks targeted energy and industrial infrastructure, including the Ryazan oil refinery and the "Kremniy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk, indicating an attempt to disrupt Russian logistics and morale. Reports of temporary restrictions at multiple airports across Russia due to drone activity further underscore the widespread nature of this threat.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces have solidified their encirclement, reportedly raising the Russian flag in the center of the town. Ukrainian troops are blocked in the north and south, with escape routes cut off and the Ukrainian command acknowledging the risk of an operational encirclement. The situation for Ukrainian forces is described as worse than in Vuhledar. Russian forces are within 1.5 km of complete encirclement.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city and continuing their advance, consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2, and severing the penultimate railway line to the city. Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant and captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
Zverevo: The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.
Solene: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanovka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units. A U.S.-made Abrams tank was reportedly rendered inoperable by a Russian Lancet loitering munition near Viktorovka. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions.
Heavy fighting continues in the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces launching constant counterattacks, slowing Russian progress.
Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruglенькое failed.
Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka.
Russian forces report that Nikolaevo-Daryino is under their control and that airborne troops are advancing further into Ukrainian territory.
Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnovka.
In the area of Kruhlenke/Viktorivka, Russian assault units have entered Viktorivka and are attempting to establish a foothold. Offensive actions are being conducted towards the settlement of Nikolske.
From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have inflicted damage in the Kursk region amounting to 750 billion rubles.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: One drone is approaching Balakliia. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. New drone groups are reported on the east and in the central part of the Kharkiv region, with a western/southwestern course.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
On the right bank of the Oskol, Russian forces are continuing to push through Ukrainian defenses and are expanding their control zone towards the western part of Dvurichna in the direction of Sagunivka.
Fighting continues in the area of Zelenyi Hai, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to improve their tactical position by attacking from Borova Andriivka.

Zaporizhzhia Region

F-16s were spotted flying in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
A drone was reported flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. An air raid alert has been reissued for the region. The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two.
Ukrainian forces report using drones to hunt Russian infantry near Kupyansk.
Ukrainian forces from the 141st Mechanized Brigade are targeting enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: New reports indicate drone movements in several regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk. Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region. New drone threats are reported in Mykolaiv. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are moving in the Mykolaiv region from the south. There are reports of two drones flying over the city of Mykolaiv. There are also reports of two drones approaching the city of Mykolaiv from the direction of Bolshaya Korenikha. The city of Chernomorsk and the city of Odessa are under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the south. Massive drone attacks targeted multiple regions in Russia, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as "decoys." Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
Successful Ukrainian Drone Strikes: Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted oil refineries and industrial facilities deep inside Russia, including successful strikes on the Ryazan refinery, a Ryazan oil pumping station, and the "Kreminy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk. Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, causing a fire. Ukrainian drones attacked the Almetyevsk head oil pumping station of "Transneft".
New Drone Technology: Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "Mikrob," with AI capabilities. Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "KUB-2".

Geopolitical Developments

Former US President Trump has threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons. However, the editor of The Telegraph stated that this is just speculation. He also called on Chinese leader Xi Jinping to help end the war in Ukraine.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine, with Zelensky requesting a direct US presence.
A Republican congressman proposed a resolution to amend the US Constitution, allowing Trump to run for a third term.
The German Ambassador to Russia announced that Berlin would not participate in the Victory Parade in Moscow.
Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
Bloomberg reports that European allies agree that the US should provide troops for any future peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
Israeli Foreign Ministry has indicated a possibility of transferring captured Russian weaponry to Ukraine.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
The US Senate confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.
Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel, according to media reports.
Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
A Republican congressman proposed amending the US Constitution to allow Trump to serve a third term.
Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
Moscow expects a prompt positive decision from the US on the agreement for the appointment of a new Russian ambassador, according to Sergey Ryabkov.
John Ratcliffe has officially taken office as the new head of the CIA.
Two Patriot air defense batteries from Germany have taken up duty near Rzeszów, Poland. Germany also plans to send Eurofighter jets to Romania for eight months.
Preparation for direct negotiations between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump on a possible truce in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the only topic of discussion within the Politburo.
Part of the Russian leadership put forward a claim to the "Russian city of Narva" on the agenda of the negotiations.
Representatives of the Politburo were told that Trump intends to block all opportunities for Russia to bypass sanctions and "put an end to the gray fleet" that transports Russian oil products.
A telephone conversation between "Putin" and Trump could take place in the next three days.
The agreement on Ukraine was not reached because Zelensky wanted to fight.
Trump administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.

Humanitarian Situation

Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Ukrainian blogger Anna Zhuk (Anet) tragically died in a car accident on the Kyiv-Kharkiv-Dovzhansky highway.

New Developments Since Last Report

Ukrainian blogger Anna Zhuk (Anet) tragically died in a car accident on the Kyiv-Kharkiv-Dovzhansky highway.
Medvedev stated that about 450,000 people signed a contract for service in the Russian Armed Forces in 2024, and more than 40,000 became volunteers.
An aviation repair plant in Borisoglebsk, Voronezh region, was damaged as a result of a UAV attack.
Gazprom announced its intention to raise gas tariffs from 65 rubles to 170 per cubic meter.
In the first half of 2024, Gazprom suffered a net loss of 480.6 billion rubles.
A U.S.-made Abrams tank was rendered inoperable by a Russian Lancet loitering munition near Viktorovka of Kursk region.
A Russian assault trooper repelled an enemy strike drone with the butt of his rifle.
The Hermitage was evacuated due to a security threat.
Europe has become heavily dependent on LNG, having abandoned pipeline gas from Russia.
The Ukrainian Air Force showcased the 160th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade in Odesa.
757 bodies of fallen Ukrainian defenders were returned to Ukraine.
A former customs officer in the Lviv region was charged with illicit enrichment.
The National Center "Russia" is launching its own podcast.
Two batteries of Patriot air defense systems from Germany have taken up duty near Rzeszów, Poland.
A Franco-German tank manufacturer KNDS Deutschland, which produces Leopard 2 tanks, has opened a joint venture in Ukraine for the maintenance and repair of military equipment.
Military police units found a cache filled with enemy weapons in the DPR.
A serviceman from Primorye was removed from the election.
250 new drones were delivered to the Ukrainian army.
Bodies of 757 fallen defenders were returned to Ukraine.
British intelligence reported that approximately 4,000 North Korean soldiers were killed in the Kursk region.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that the conflict in Ukraine cannot be resolved in 100 days without realism in the United States.
Ufa airport lifted restrictions on receiving and sending aircraft.
The deputy director of a municipal enterprise in Dnipro was exposed for embezzling over 9 million hryvnias.
Trump's meeting with Grossi may take place in the first half of February, possibly in Moscow.
49 bodies of Russian soldiers were exchanged for 757 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers.
Zelensky congratulated the employees of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine on their professional day.
The National Council on Television and Radio Broadcasting expanded the list of banned sites of the aggressor state, including Baskino, Filmix, and HD REZKA.
The speaker of the Russian-language pro-Ukrainian Telegram channel "Shef Hayabusa" posted a video mocking the Russian news about the drone attack.
A video was released showing a Ukrainian soldier shooting six captured Ukrainians and complaining about the lack of payments for injuries.
A video was released showing a Russian Su-34 striking Ukrainian armored vehicles and soldiers on the border of the Kursk region at night.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region remains the focal point of intense fighting, with Russian forces making incremental gains around Pokrovsk, Velyka Novosilka, and Chasiv Yar. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the ongoing drone warfare, including attacks deep inside Russia, further complicate the situation. The potential meeting between Trump and Putin, and the ongoing negotiations regarding a possible truce, add another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with continued civilian casualties and displacement. The return of 757 bodies of fallen Ukrainian defenders underscores the human cost of the conflict. The ongoing drone warfare, particularly the successful Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, demonstrates a significant escalation and showcases Ukraine's ability to disrupt Russian logistics and infrastructure. The reported use of new drone technology by Russia, such as the AI-equipped "Mikrob" drone, highlights the evolving nature of the conflict. The geopolitical situation is increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US policy under a possible Trump administration and continued negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The involvement of North Korean troops, as reported by British intelligence, adds another dimension to the conflict, with significant casualties reported among DPRK forces. The economic impact of the war is also evident, with Gazprom announcing significant losses and plans to raise gas tariffs, while Ukraine continues to rely on international aid and volunteer efforts to support its military. The reported discussions about a possible truce and the involvement of international actors like Trump and the UN suggest that diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are ongoing, but face significant obstacles.

Situation Report