Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 10:38 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Zakhidne. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported. Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted oil refineries and industrial facilities deep inside Russia, including successful strikes on the Ryazan refinery, a Ryazan oil pumping station, and the "Kreminy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Velyka Novosilka:
Russian forces are within 1.5 km of complete encirclement, with Ukrainian forces blocked in the northern and southern parts and escape routes cut off.
The Ukrainian garrison in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka remains encircled.
Video evidence shows the "Vostok" group targeting a Ukrainian command post near Velyka Novosilka, with over 150 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly killed.
The "Vostok" group is using all available means to attack the blocked enemy.
Ukrainian forces report that the only way in and out of Velyka Novosilka is on foot.
Russian forces are reportedly organizing an evacuation of Ukrainian forces from Velyka Novosilka.
Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces conducted a double strike on Ukrainian vehicles near Velyka Novosilka.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Pokrovsk:
Russian forces are reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city and continuing their advance.
Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west.
Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
Russian forces are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2.
Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank.
Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city.
The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of key supply lines significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement.
Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka.
Russian forces have cut the penultimate railway line to Pokrovsk.
Chasiv Yar:
Russian forces continue to advance in Chasiv Yar, dislodging the enemy from their positions.
Near Chasiv Yar, Russian forces approach the western outskirts from the north side of the railway.
The basements and workshops of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar have been cleared.
Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant.
Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
Russian forces have made significant advances in the urban area, capturing about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district.
They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant.
Kurakhove:
Positional fighting is reported in the Kurakhove - Dachne area.
Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the area with FPV drones.
Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
Active combat operations reported near Kurakhovo.
Toretsk:
Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk.
Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.
Kramatorsk:
A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
Zverevo:
The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.
Donetsk:
Explosions were reported in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk.
Russian forces shelled the Donetsk region 23 times in the past 24 hours.
Luhansk Region
Russian Advances:
Russian forces have captured Zakhidne.
Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
Positional Fighting:
Positional fighting is reported in the Krasnyi Lyman - Ivanivka area.
Borova Direction:
Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
Kursk Region
Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive:
The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
Russian forces are continuing an operation to neutralize an enemy group that broke into the territory.
Heavy fighting continues in the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces launching constant counterattacks, slowing Russian progress.
Video evidence confirms the complete liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruglенькое failed.
Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka.
Russian forces report that Nikolaevo-Daryino is under their control and that airborne troops are advancing further into Ukrainian territory.
Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnovka.
Drone Warfare:
Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
Kharkiv Region
Drone Attacks:
One drone is approaching Balakliia.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
Russian Advance:
Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Zaporizhzhia Region
Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian positions and equipment on the Zaporizhzhia front.
Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting a building in Zaporizhzhia with four missiles.
The number of victims from the night attack in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 46.
F-16s were spotted flying in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Activity:
New reports indicate drone movements in several regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk.
Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
New drone threats are reported in Mykolaiv.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are moving in the Mykolaiv region from the south.
There are reports of two drones flying over the city of Mykolaiv.
There are also reports of two drones approaching the city of Mykolaiv from the direction of Bolshaya Korenikha.
The city of Chernomorsk and the city of Odessa are under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the south.
Massive drone attacks targeted multiple regions in Russia, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea.
Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones.
Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as "decoys."
Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
New Drone Technology:
Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "Mikrob," with AI capabilities.
Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "KUB-2".
Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya-2" drones equipped with TM-62M anti-tank mines for targeted strikes.
Successful Ukrainian Drone Strikes:
Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted oil refineries and industrial facilities deep inside Russia, including successful strikes on the Ryazan refinery, a Ryazan oil pumping station, and the "Kreminy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk.
Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, causing a fire.
Ukrainian drones attacked the Almetyevsk head oil pumping station of "Transneft".
Geopolitical Developments
Former US President Trump claims that President Zelensky should not have allowed the war to happen and that Ukraine was always a target for Putin.
The ODKB (Collective Security Treaty Organization) still considers Armenia its ally, despite statements from the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service.
The Parliament of Armenia will consider a bill on joining the EU in February.
The German Ambassador to Russia announced that Berlin would not participate in the Victory Parade in Moscow.
Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
Bloomberg reports that European allies agree that the US should provide troops for any future peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine, with Zelensky requesting a direct US presence.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
Israeli Foreign Ministry has indicated a possibility of transferring captured Russian weaponry to Ukraine.
A Republican congressman proposed a resolution to amend the US Constitution, allowing Trump to run for a third term.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
The US Senate confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.
Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel, according to media reports.
Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
A Republican congressman proposed amending the US Constitution to allow Trump to serve a third term.
Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
Humanitarian Situation
Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Ongoing Operations
Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kursk regions.
Ukrainian forces are conducting defensive operations and launching drone attacks against targets inside Russia.
Intense fighting is reported in Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and the Kursk region.
Drone warfare continues to be a significant feature of the conflict.
Potential Future Developments
Further Russian advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Increased drone attacks by both sides.
Potential escalation of the conflict in the Kursk region.
Possible shifts in US policy under a potential Trump administration.
Continued negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, potentially involving international mediators.
This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the current military situation in Ukraine, highlighting key developments, ongoing operations, and potential future developments. The situation remains highly dynamic and subject to rapid change.
