Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 06:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, marked by significant Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, and a continued intensification of drone warfare. Russian forces have achieved substantial gains, notably the complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka and advances near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The massive drone attacks across Russia, targeting multiple regions, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea, demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike deep within Russian territory, causing disruption and damage to critical infrastructure, such as the oil refinery near Ryazan and industrial facilities in Bryansk and Engels. A new video shows the aftermath of the attack on the oil refinery in Ryazan, with multiple fires burning. The Ryazan oil refinery has been confirmed as a target of the drone attack. Airports in Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara have introduced restrictions, further indicating the widespread impact of the drone campaign. The reported drone activity in the Lviv region underscores the persistent threat to western Ukraine, although the threat has now been declared over. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in several regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk. New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug. New reports indicate 5 drones are flying past Bashtanka towards the Voznesensky district, 1 drone flew past Kryvyi Rih into the Kirovohrad region, 1 drone over Kropyvnytskyi, 2 drones in the Kamensky area, 7 drones in the Kremenchug district in a northwesterly direction, 4 drones circling in the Kupyansk area, 2 drones north of Lozova, Kharkiv region, in a westerly direction, 3 drones heading towards/through Nizhyn, 3 drones from Sumy region flying to Chernihiv region, 1 drone in the north of Poltava region in a westerly direction, 1 new drone from the Black Sea in the direction of Fontanka. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are moving in the Mykolaiv region from the south. There are reports of two drones flying over the city of Mykolaiv. There are also reports of two drones approaching the city of Mykolaiv from the direction of Bolshaya Korenikha. The city of Chernomorsk and the city of Odessa are under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the south. New reports indicate that drones have been shot down over the Leningrad Oblast.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: The city is now completely cut in two, with Ukrainian forces in the southern part fully encircled. Russian forces have taken control of the right-bank part of the city and are advancing towards the center, methodically clearing the northern, eastern, and southern areas. Video evidence confirms the beginning of the liberation of Velyka Novosilka by the "Vostok" group. Drone footage and local intelligence were used to eliminate a machine gun team. The raising of the Russian flag in the center of the settlement signifies a major symbolic victory. A Ukrainian officer from the 61st Brigade has publicly addressed soldiers of the 110th Brigade, who are encircled in Velyka Novosilka, urging them to either surrender or flee. He emphasized that the Ukrainian command views them as expendable.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive. There are ongoing штурмовые actions by Russian troops, and tactical successes. Video evidence shows the 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard targeting Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar.
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): Russian troops are advancing towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road near the interchange and Baranovka. Southwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces continue their efforts to encircle the city, with heavy fighting reported near Kotlyno.
Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Solene: The settlement has been reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
Kurakhove: Northeast of the liberated Kurakhove, Russian forces are conducting raids near Andriivka. To the west and northwest, Russian forces are applying pressure, but their activity has decreased in the past few days, likely due to rotations and regrouping. Positional fighting is reported in the Kurakhove - Dachne area. Russian assault units reportedly captured new positions north of the Kurakhove sludge dumps, advancing 1.5 km west along the Dachne - Yantarne line.
Dachnoe: A video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces in Dachnoe, in support of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division's offensive in the Kurakhove direction.
Zverevo: The fighting continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully. Ukrainian defenses are built around mine waste heaps. Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs against these positions and drone control points. Fighting is ongoing in the landings near the city dump to the northwest.
Donetsk: Russian forces shelled the Donetsk region 23 times in the past 24 hours, using 69 munitions.

Kursk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have advanced towards Sverdlikovo and cleared several forest belts near Kurilovka, demonstrating continued progress in the region.
No Major Advances: While Russian forces are applying pressure on Ukrainian defenses, there have been no significant advances. Ukrainian forces are conducting counterattacks and deploying reserves.

Kharkiv Region

Balakleysky District: Explosions were reported in the Balakleysky district on the previous evening and night.
Kharkov District: Russian forces carried out strikes in Podvorki and Solonitsevka.
Izium: The outskirts of Izium are reportedly under heavy shelling, with the Ukrainian army turning the outskirts into a defensive line. An incident in Izium involving an আটকে পড়া munition on a tree resulted in an explosion, injuring six people.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A Russian drone reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, injuring one person. One drone is approaching Balakliia. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in the western and central parts of Kharkiv region, heading west. Drones are also reported north of Kharkiv, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava regions, heading west. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. A new group of Russian drones is reported in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, with a west/southwest course.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community. Explosions are reported in the Kharkiv area, likely outside the city.
Kupiansk: is under renewed heavy shelling, with deteriorating security conditions. Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk.
Guided Aerial Bombs: have been launched towards Zolochiv.
New Drone Groups: reported on the east and in the central part of the Kharkiv region, with a western/southwestern course.

Zaporizhzhia Region

Positional Battles: The front continues to see positional battles with both sides actively using long-range weapons. There have been no significant changes to the line of contact. One person was reported killed and 54 wounded as a result of a recent attack on Zaporizhzhia.

Drone Warfare

Massive Drone Attacks: A massive drone attack targeted multiple regions in Russia, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian sources suggest the number could be as high as 150-180, calling it the most massive drone attack since the beginning of the war.
Ryazan Oil Refinery: A fire continues at an oil refinery near Ryazan following a drone attack. The attack is also reported to have targeted the nearby Novo-Ryazanskaya thermal power plant.
Kremniy Plant (Bryansk): Ukrainian drones attacked the "Kremniy" plant in Bryansk. This marks the fourth attack on the plant. The plant produces microelectronics for various weapons, including "Pantsir" air defense systems, "Iskander" missiles, radar systems, electronic warfare systems, and Russian drones.
Engels Oil Refinery: An oil refinery in Engels was also targeted by drones, with locals reporting at least seven explosions in the sky.
Lviv Region: Reports indicate drone activity in the Lviv region, with Ukrainian air defenses engaged. Three "Shahed" drones were reported to be heading towards Lviv. One drone is approaching Starokonstantinov. Three drones are approaching Starokonstantinov one by one. The threat of enemy drones in the region has been declared over.
Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara Airports: Temporary restrictions on the reception and release of aircraft were introduced at the airports in Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara. These restrictions have now been lifted.
Zhytomyr Region: Explosions were reported in the Zhytomyr region.
Kyiv Region: During the night, Russian forces attacked the Kyiv region with drones, resulting in the deaths of two people in a private home that caught fire from falling debris. Another attack in a different area caused a fire in an apartment building, killing one person. Two people were injured in total. The number of casualties has been updated to three.
Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. The Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down 33 out of 50 drones launched by Russian forces on the night of January 17, 2025. The "Zapad" Grouping of Russian forces destroyed three Starlink satellite communication stations and 13 Ukrainian drone control points in one day. Operators of the "OMEGA" Central Special Forces successfully targeted and eliminated 2 Zala and 3 Supercam Russian reconnaissance UAVs. 5 Russian reconnaissance drones have been shot down. The drones were reportedly shot down by the "OMEGA" Central Special Forces. In the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, drone debris caused minor damage to a building's facade, with no reported casualties. Drone debris fell in the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, causing minor damage to a building's facade. Air defense forces are actively responding to a missile attack in Belgorod, with multiple explosions reported in the sky above the Belgorod region. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that nine Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Rostov region.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. A fire broke out in a military hospital in Tula, Russia, with reports of 57 people evacuated.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The plant is a major producer of high-strength plastics. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
Tambov and Voronezh: Drones attacked a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions overnight.
27 Drones Destroyed: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 27 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight.
Drone attack on Poltava region: Russian forces attacked the Poltava region overnight using drones. The falling debris from the downed drones damaged energy infrastructure. 301 households and 22 legal consumers are currently without power.
Romanian Observation: Romanian observers reportedly witnessed a "Geranium" drone strike on Ukrainian infrastructure in the Odesa region.
Drone Attack on Almetyevsk: Ukrainian drones attacked the Almetyevsk head oil pumping station of "Transneft".
Mykolaiv: In Mykolaiv, an enemy drone is approaching from the northeast. The city of Mykolaiv is under threat from a drone approaching from the south. In Kryvyi Rih, an enemy drone is approaching from the north.
New: Zhytomyr Oblast is under threat of a drone attack from the northeast.
New: A Russian drone is reported to be approaching Bila Tserkva (Kyiv Oblast) from the east.
Sumy Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: south of Sumy Oblast (westward course).
Chernihiv Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: west and southeast of Chernihiv Oblast (west/southwest course).
Poltava Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: center of Poltava Oblast (northeast course).
Kirovohrad Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: west of Kirovohrad Oblast (south course).
Kyiv Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: north and southeast of Kyiv Oblast (west/south course).
Donetsk Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: north of Donetsk Oblast (west/east course).
Odesa Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: Odesa Oblast (east course, towards Chornomorsk).
New: 1 drone is reported south of Uman, 2 in the north of Kyiv Oblast (westward course), 3 passing through Pereiaslav (southwest course), 1 moving from Kharkiv to Poltava Oblast, and 1 moving from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast.
New: Explosions were reported in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk, with at least ten explosions counted. A loud drone sound was also reported. Another explosion was reported in Lidiivka (Donetsk region), with windows blown out in one house.
Sumy: In Sumy, an enemy drone is approaching from the northeast. The city of Sumy is under threat from a drone approaching from the south.
Kharkiv: In Kharkiv, an enemy drone is approaching from the northeast.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south.
New: In Sumy region, heading south.
New: A map of air raid alerts shows that air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
New: Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west.
New: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
New: All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
New: Three Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Leningrad Oblast.

Missile Attacks

Explosions in Kyiv: Missile strikes have caused fires and damage in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi and Desnianskyi districts, resulting in at least four deaths and several injuries. The Lukianivska metro station has been closed due to damage.
Explosions in Kryvyi Rih: Reports indicate a series of missile strikes targeting Kryvyi Rih, with the number of wounded rising to 5. A Danish F-16 pilot instructor was killed in a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. A rocket hit a bomb shelter during an attack on an aviation college in Kryvyi Rih.
Explosions in Zaporizhzhia: Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia, with an infrastructure object reportedly hit. The number of wounded has risen to 10. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region, with reports of a high-speed target in the area. The number of casualties has risen to 1 killed and 54 wounded.
Nationwide Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a nationwide ballistic missile threat, with X-22 missiles flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions. Kalibr missiles have been launched from the Anapa area.
Kramatorsk: The city experienced a powerful explosion in the industrial zone, with the number of casualties rising to eight. Power outages are also reported, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city. Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.

Geopolitical Developments

Sergei Shoigu's Statement: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu emphasized the necessity of the Union State's security concept in the current complex global environment. He also stated that the West, having failed to change the course of the special operation in Ukraine, will now focus on destabilizing the Union State. He has also stated that the risks of a clash between nuclear powers are increasing. Shoigu also claimed that NATO is actively increasing its military potential on the eastern flanks near the borders of the Union State. Shoigu also stated that the Russian nuclear umbrella provides protection for Belarus in the same framework scenarios in which the Russian Federation allows nuclear response for its own defense.
Foreign Agent Restrictions: The State Duma is planning to discuss a package of projects on January 28th that will establish new restrictions for foreign agents. These restrictions include a complete ban on engaging in education, a potential ban on receiving municipal support and status as a socially oriented NGO, a project on заочное prosecution for violating foreign agent activities, and administrative liability for not properly labeling materials produced by foreign agents.
Japanese-Russian Relations: The Japanese Prime Minister has expressed a desire to conclude a peace treaty with Russia, despite the challenging state of relations. He reiterated his commitment to resolving the territorial dispute and finalizing the peace treaty, echoing previous statements made by him and his predecessor, Fumio Kishida.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making substantial gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka and the advances near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar represent major tactical victories for Russia. The liberation of Solene and the beginning of the liberation of Velyka Novosilka further solidifies Russian control in the area. The confirmation that Russian forces have cut Velyka Novosilka in half, with the 110th Mechanized Brigade completely blocked in the southern part, is a significant development.

The massive drone attacks across Russia demonstrate Ukraine's continued ability to strike deep within Russian territory, causing significant disruption and damage. The ongoing fire at the oil refinery near Ryazan, and the attacks on industrial facilities in Bryansk and Engels highlight the vulnerability of critical infrastructure. The new video showing the aftermath of the attack on the oil refinery in Ryazan confirms the severity of the damage. The confirmation that the Ryazan oil refinery and the "Kremniy" plant in Bryansk were targeted further emphasizes the strategic importance of these attacks. The restrictions at Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara airports further indicate the widespread impact of the drone campaign. The new reports of drones shot down over the Leningrad Oblast mark a significant escalation in the geographic scope of the drone attacks and demonstrate Ukraine's increasing ability to strike deep into Russian territory.

The reported drone activity in the Lviv region underscores the persistent threat to western Ukraine and the need for sustained vigilance and air defense readiness. The explosions in the Kharkiv region and the incident in Izium highlight the ongoing fighting in the east. The deaths of 3 civilians in the Kyiv region due to drone attacks highlight the human cost of this new phase of the conflict.

The geopolitical situation remains tense, with Sergei Shoigu's statements adding another layer of complexity to the conflict. The alleged NATO military buildup near the Union State's borders further exacerbates tensions between Russia and the West. Shoigu's mention of the increasing risk of conflict between nuclear powers is a concerning development. The new restrictions on foreign agents in Russia indicate a further tightening of control and suppression of dissent. The expressed desire by the Japanese Prime Minister to conclude a peace treaty with Russia, despite the challenging relations and ongoing territorial dispute, introduces a new element in the complex geopolitical landscape. While Japan's stance on the territorial issue remains firm, the willingness to pursue dialogue and a peace treaty could potentially open new diplomatic avenues. However, the current military situation in Ukraine and the broader tensions between Russia and the West may complicate these efforts.

Overall, the new information suggests a significant escalation in the conflict, with increased pressure on Ukrainian forces and a potential shift in the balance of power towards Russia. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the war. The successful use of FPV drones by Russian forces highlights the evolving nature of the conflict and the increasing importance of drone warfare. The liberation of Velyka Novosilka is a significant development that could have far-reaching consequences for the control of the Donetsk region.

Situation Report