Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 05:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is marked by a significant escalation in drone warfare, continued Russian advances across multiple fronts, and intensified fighting in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Donetsk region, particularly in Velyka Novosilka, which is now effectively under complete encirclement, and in Chasiv Yar, where they are nearing the city's western outskirts. The massive drone attacks across Russia, targeting multiple regions including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea, demonstrate a significant escalation and showcase Ukraine's ability to strike deep within Russian territory. The recent attacks have led to the deaths of 3 civilians in the Kyiv region. Airports in Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara have introduced restrictions, adding to the list of airports affected by the drone attacks. The reported liberation of Solene and the beginning of the liberation of Velyka Novosilka further strengthens the Russian position in the Donetsk region.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: The city is now completely cut in two, with Ukrainian forces in the southern part fully encircled. Russian forces have taken control of the right-bank part of the city and are advancing towards the center, methodically clearing the northern, eastern, and southern areas. Video evidence from the "Voin DV" Telegram channel shows exclusive footage of the beginning of the liberation of Velyka Novosilka by the "Vostok" group, with joint actions of Russian tankers and marines. The raising of the Russian flag in the center of the settlement signifies a major symbolic victory. Drone footage and local intelligence were used to eliminate a machine gun team. Night vision targeting was also utilized.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive. There are ongoing штурмовые actions by Russian troops, and tactical successes.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): Russian troops are advancing towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road near the interchange and Baranovka. Southwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces continue their efforts to encircle the city, with heavy fighting reported near Kotlyno.
• Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Solene: The settlement has been reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
• Kurakhove: Northeast of the liberated Kurakhove, Russian forces are conducting raids near Andriivka. To the west and northwest, Russian forces are applying pressure, but their activity has decreased in the past few days, likely due to rotations and regrouping.
• Dachnoe: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces in Dachnoe, in support of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division's offensive in the Kurakhove direction.

Kursk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have advanced towards Sverdlikovo and cleared several forest belts near Kurilovka, demonstrating continued progress in the region.
• No Major Advances: While Russian forces are applying pressure on Ukrainian defenses, there have been no significant advances. Ukrainian forces are conducting counterattacks and deploying reserves.

Kharkiv Region

• Balakleysky District: Explosions were reported in the Balakleysky district on the previous evening and night.
• Kharkov District: Russian forces carried out strikes in Podvorki and Solonitsevka.
• Izium: The outskirts of Izium are reportedly under heavy shelling, with the Ukrainian army turning the outskirts into a defensive line. An incident in Izium involving an আটকে পড়া munition on a tree resulted in an explosion, injuring six people.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• Positional Battles: The front continues to see positional battles with both sides actively using long-range weapons. There have been no significant changes to the line of contact.

Drone Warfare

• Massive Drone Attacks: A massive drone attack targeted multiple regions in Russia, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian sources suggest the number could be as high as 150-180, calling it the most massive drone attack since the beginning of the war.
• Ryazan Oil Refinery: A fire continues at an oil refinery near Ryazan following a drone attack. Video evidence of the fire was published by the "Sever.Realii" Telegram channel. The attack is also reported to have targeted the nearby Novo-Ryazanskaya thermal power plant.
• Kremniy Plant (Bryansk): Ukrainian drones attacked the "Kremniy" plant in Bryansk, with video evidence of an explosion. This marks the fourth attack on the plant.
• Engels Oil Refinery: An oil refinery in Engels was also targeted by drones, with locals reporting at least seven explosions in the sky.
• Lviv Region: Reports indicate drone activity in the Lviv region, with Ukrainian air defenses engaged. Three "Shahed" drones were reported to be heading towards Lviv. One drone is approaching Starokonstantinov. Three drones are approaching Starokonstantinov one by one. The threat of enemy drones in the region has been declared over.
• Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara Airports: Temporary restrictions on the reception and release of aircraft were introduced at the airports in Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara. These restrictions have now been lifted.
• Zhytomyr Region: Explosions were reported in the Zhytomyr region.
• Kyiv Region: During the night, Russian forces attacked the Kyiv region with drones, resulting in the deaths of two people in a private home that caught fire from falling debris. Another attack in a different area caused a fire in an apartment building, killing one person. Two people were injured in total.

Geopolitical Developments

• Sergei Shoigu's Statement: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu emphasized the necessity of the Union State's security concept in the current complex global environment. He also stated that the West, having failed to change the course of the special operation in Ukraine, will now focus on destabilizing the Union State. He has also stated that the risks of a clash between nuclear powers are increasing.
• NATO Buildup: Shoigu also claimed that NATO is actively increasing its military potential on the eastern flanks near the borders of the Union State.
• Foreign Agent Restrictions: The State Duma is planning to discuss a package of projects on January 28th that will establish new restrictions for foreign agents. These restrictions include a complete ban on engaging in education, a potential ban on receiving municipal support and status as a socially oriented NGO, a project on заочное prosecution for violating foreign agent activities, and administrative liability for not properly labeling materials produced by foreign agents.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making substantial gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka and the advances near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar represent major tactical victories for Russia. The liberation of Solene and the beginning of the liberation of Velyka Novosilka, as evidenced by the video from the "Voin DV" channel, further solidifies Russian control in the area.

The massive drone attacks across Russia demonstrate Ukraine's continued ability to strike deep within Russian territory, causing significant disruption and damage. The ongoing fire at the oil refinery near Ryazan, confirmed by video evidence, and the attacks on industrial facilities in Bryansk and Engels highlight the vulnerability of critical infrastructure. The restrictions at Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara airports further indicate the widespread impact of the drone campaign.

The reported drone activity in the Lviv region underscores the persistent threat to western Ukraine and the need for sustained vigilance and air defense readiness, although the threat has now been declared over. The explosions in the Kharkiv region and the incident in Izium highlight the ongoing fighting in the east. The deaths of 3 civilians in the Kyiv region due to drone attacks highlight the human cost of this new phase of the conflict.

The geopolitical situation remains tense, with Sergei Shoigu's statements adding another layer of complexity to the conflict. The alleged NATO military buildup near the Union State's borders further exacerbates tensions between Russia and the West. Shoigu's mention of the increasing risk of conflict between nuclear powers is a concerning development.

Overall, the new information suggests a significant escalation in the conflict, with increased pressure on Ukrainian forces and a potential shift in the balance of power towards Russia. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the war. The successful use of FPV drones by Russian forces, as shown in the video from the "Colonelcassad" channel, highlights the evolving nature of the conflict and the increasing importance of drone warfare. The liberation of Velyka Novosilka is a significant development that could have far-reaching consequences for the control of the Donetsk region. The new restrictions on foreign agents in Russia indicate a further tightening of control and suppression of dissent.