Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 04:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by a significant escalation in drone warfare and continued Russian advances across multiple fronts. Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Donetsk region, particularly in Velyka Novosilka, which is now effectively under complete encirclement, and in Chasiv Yar, where they are nearing the city's western outskirts. The massive drone attacks across Russia, targeting multiple regions including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea, demonstrate a significant escalation and showcase Ukraine's ability to strike deep within Russian territory. Airports in Ufa have introduced restrictions, adding to the list of airports affected by the drone attacks. The reported liberation of Solene further strengthens the Russian position in the Donetsk region.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: The city is now completely cut in two, with Ukrainian forces in the southern part fully encircled. Russian forces have taken control of the right-bank part of the city and are advancing towards the center, methodically clearing the northern, eastern, and southern areas.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): Russian troops are advancing towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road near the interchange and Baranovka. Southwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces continue their efforts to encircle the city, with heavy fighting reported near Kotlyno.
• Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Solene: The settlement has been reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
• Kurakhove: Northeast of the liberated Kurakhove, Russian forces are conducting raids near Andriivka.

Kursk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have advanced towards Sverdlikovo and cleared several forest belts near Kurilovka, demonstrating continued progress in the region.

Drone Warfare

• Massive Drone Attacks: A massive drone attack targeted multiple regions in Russia, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones.
• Ryazan Oil Refinery: A fire continues at an oil refinery near Ryazan following a drone attack.
• Kremniy Plant (Bryansk): Ukrainian drones attacked the "Kremniy" plant in Bryansk, with video evidence of an explosion. This marks the fourth attack on the plant.
• Engels Oil Refinery: An oil refinery in Engels was also targeted by drones, with locals reporting at least seven explosions in the sky.
• Lviv Region: Reports indicate drone activity in the Lviv region, with Ukrainian air defenses engaged. Three "Shahed" drones were reported to be heading towards Lviv. One drone is approaching Starokonstantinov. Three drones are approaching Starokonstantinov one by one.
• Ufa Airport: Temporary restrictions on the reception and release of aircraft were introduced at the airport in Ufa.
• Zhytomyr Region: Explosions were reported in the Zhytomyr region.

Geopolitical Developments

• Sergei Shoigu's Statement: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu emphasized the necessity of the Union State's security concept in the current complex global environment.
• NATO Buildup: Shoigu also claimed that NATO is actively increasing its military potential on the eastern flanks near the borders of the Union State.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making substantial gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka and the advances near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar represent major tactical victories for Russia. The liberation of Solene further solidifies Russian control in the area.

The massive drone attacks across Russia demonstrate Ukraine's continued ability to strike deep within Russian territory, causing significant disruption and damage. The ongoing fire at the oil refinery near Ryazan and the attacks on industrial facilities in Bryansk and Engels highlight the vulnerability of critical infrastructure. The restrictions at Ufa airport further indicate the widespread impact of the drone campaign.

The reported drone activity in the Lviv region underscores the persistent threat to western Ukraine and the need for sustained vigilance and air defense readiness.

The geopolitical situation remains tense, with Sergei Shoigu's statements adding another layer of complexity to the conflict. The alleged NATO military buildup near the Union State's borders further exacerbates tensions between Russia and the West.

Overall, the new information suggests a significant escalation in the conflict, with increased pressure on Ukrainian forces and a potential shift in the balance of power towards Russia. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the war.