Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 03:38 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with Russian forces continuing to advance across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region. The situation in Velyka Novosilka is critical, with the encirclement now complete and Ukrainian forces facing a dire situation. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive activity across multiple regions, including new reports of drone movements near Kyiv and continued attacks deep inside Russian territory. Airports in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Penza, Samara, and Saratov have introduced restrictions. Russian forces have made advances near Dvurichna, depriving Ukrainian forces of advantageous lines and positions.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Velyka Novosilka: The encirclement is complete, with all roads under Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces are effectively cut in half, with no way in or out except on foot. Russian forces have advanced significantly, pushing Ukrainian troops back and controlling positions along the banks of the Mokrye Yaly and Kashlagach rivers.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces continue to advance, now within 10 kilometers of the city. Reports indicate a plan to cover the city from the southwest, with successes in Kotlyno and Udachny.
Chasiv Yar: Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces making significant advances. They have reportedly captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
Kurakhove: Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Clashes were reported near Vremivka, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka. Video evidence shows Russian forces using FPV drones equipped with fiber optics to destroy a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are reportedly collapsing, with Russian forces making advances in the area.
New Advances: Russian forces have made progress near Dachne, Udachne, Novoelizavetivka, Makiivka, Tabaivka, and Zapadne.
Solene: Video evidence indicates fighting during the liberation of the settlement.
Kursk Region
Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Heavy losses for Ukrainian forces are reported, with a 10-kilometer Russian breakthrough. Russian forces have liberated several settlements. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
Drone Warfare: Continued reports of drone attacks in the region. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle. Video evidence shows Russian operators of FPV-drones destroying a Ukrainian M101A1 howitzer in the border area of the Kursk region.
Casualties: About 1,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been killed in the region while fighting against Ukraine.
Commissions to Assess Destruction: Commissions are beginning work to assess the destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Kharkiv Region
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
Russian Advances near Dvurichna: Russian forces have advanced near Dvurichna, depriving Ukrainian forces of advantageous lines and positions.
Luhansk Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian drones are targeting regions deep inside Russia, including Moscow, Ryazan, Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Engels, Saratov, Tatarstan, and Samara Oblast.
Moscow Region: Confirmed reports of drone attacks, with several drones shot down. Six drones were reportedly shot down over Podolsk, Kolomna, Shchyolkovo, Ramenskoye, and Troitsky administrative districts.
Ryazan: Confirmed damage to the oil refinery and a residential building following drone attacks.
Saratov Region: An air alert has been declared due to the threat of drone attacks. Drones are reportedly attacking Engels. Restrictions were introduced at the airports of Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Penza, Samara, and Saratov. Air defense forces have liquidated UAVs in the Saratov region.
Bryansk: Reports of an attack on the "Kremniy El" microelectronics factory, which produces components for the Russian military-industrial complex.
Ukrainian Drone Movements: Several groups of Shahed drones are moving from Poltava region towards Cherkasy region. Drones are moving through the north of Cherkasy region towards Kyiv region. New groups of drones are reported to be moving from the south, through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone is reported on the south of Poltava region, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk region. Shahed drones are reported to be moving through Mykolaiv region towards Kirovohrad region. Several groups of "Shahed" drones are heading from Chernihiv region towards Brovary/Kyiv. A drone is approaching Brovary. A drone is flying from Kirovohrad Oblast towards Uman Raion, Cherkasy Oblast. Three drones are flying north of Cherkasy towards the southwest. A drone has flown past Kyiv towards Fastiv. A drone is circling east of Brovary. A drone is flying from Chernihiv Oblast towards Brovary. Two drones are flying towards or through Chernihiv. Three drones flew past Novyi Buh towards Kirovohrad Oblast. A drone is flying through the south of the Kyiv region toward the Vinnytsia region. A drone is flying past Boryspil toward Kyiv. Four drones are reported west of Kyiv, flying towards Zhytomyr Oblast. Two drones are in the north of Vinnytsia Oblast, heading west. Three drones are flying near Uman towards Vinnytsia Oblast. One drone is approaching **Zhytom প্রেরিত
