Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 23, 2025, 23:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Drone warfare has escalated significantly, with widespread attacks across multiple regions in Russia, including Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, and now even the Moscow region. The Ryazan oil refinery and Dyagilevo airfield have been targeted, and the Moscow region is reportedly under drone attack, with air defense systems active. Several groups of Shahed drones are moving from the Poltava region towards the Cherkasy region. Drones are moving through the north of the Cherkasy region towards the Kyiv region. New groups of drones are reported to be moving from the south, through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Dire situation. Russian forces have bisected the town, encircling Ukrainian forces in the southern part. The only remaining escape route is on foot via Azovskaya Street towards Blagodatnoye. Over 150 Ukrainian soldiers from the 110th Mechanized Brigade have been killed. Russian forces control the right-bank part of the city and are advancing towards the center, approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The distance between advancing units is between 2.2 and 3.7 km. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops, while Russian forces use TOS to target Ukrainian positions. Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka. Clashes continue, with Ukrainian forces facing supply issues. The only remaining supply route is a dirt road from Novoocheretuvate, under constant attack.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces advancing, within 10 kilometers of the city and 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Heavy fighting in Udachnoye and west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye. Russian forces liberated Baranovka and are clearing positions on the opposite bank of the river. They are advancing in the southern part of Udachnoye, fighting for the station, and approaching the center in the north. South of the village, fighting is taking place near Tsarskoye Stavok, Dolgoprudnaya Balka, and the eastern part of Novosergievka. In the Dmytriv (Kotlyno) area, Russian forces captured a ventilation shaft and nearby landings, advancing towards Grishino. The city hospital is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih. Russian forces cut the penultimate railway line to Pokrovsk.
• Chasiv Yar: Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces seizing the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back. About half of the city's urban area is under Russian control, and a group of Ukrainian soldiers is trapped near the refractory plant. Battles have shifted to the area west of Workshop No. 1 of the Chasov Yar Refractory Plant after clearing the workshops. Russian forces launched an offensive south of the railway station, expanding control after artillery shelling near Dniprovsky Pond.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
• Kurakhove: Fierce battles near several settlements. Active combat operations near Kurakhove and Andriivka. Russian forces engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled, resulting in heavy losses estimated at up to 48,000. Russian forces liberated several settlements and are advancing, with reports of a 10-kilometer breakthrough. Intense fighting, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area.
• Massive Drone Attacks: Major escalation in drone warfare. Since 19:00 UTC, 49 Ukrainian drones shot down over Russian regions, including 37 over Kursk Oblast. Reports indicate ongoing attacks, with air defenses active in Ryazan, Kursk, and Belgorod regions. The Ryazan oil refinery and Dyagilevo airfield are potential targets. Bryansk region is also under attack. A Ukrainian drone was shot down over Kursk, with debris damaging four houses. Part of Kursk is without power due to drone attacks.
• North Korean Involvement: Reports continue regarding North Korean casualties and involvement, including claims of 300-4,000 North Korean soldiers killed.
• Ryazan Under Attack: Ukrainian drones actively targeting Ryazan, with reports of at least 12 explosions near the local oil refinery and the Dyagilevo airfield. Air defenses are active. The attack on Ryazan represents a significant escalation, suggesting a potential shift in Ukrainian strategy to target strategic locations deep inside Russia. The Ryazan oil refinery has reportedly been hit, causing a large fire.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. One drone is circling near Kharkiv, and there are reports of anti-aircraft activity. Two new drones are moving west through the Kupyansky district. New drone groups have been reported on Sumy region. Guided aerial bombs are being used against Kharkiv.
• Explosions: Explosions reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They also advanced northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area and moving towards Hrekivka.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature. Ukrainian forces report shooting down numerous Russian drones while also conducting strikes deep into Russian territory. New reports indicate drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts. New drone groups are reported in the east of Kharkiv Oblast. Several groups of Shahed drones are moving from Poltava region towards Cherkasy region. Drones are moving through the north of Cherkasy region towards Kyiv region.
• Ryazan Oil Refinery Targeted: Ukrainian drones targeted the Ryazan oil refinery. This marks a significant escalation. The attack indicates a potential shift in Ukrainian strategy to target strategic locations deep inside Russia. A large fire is reported at the refinery.
• Moscow region is under drone attack, with air defense systems active. Reports of drones flying towards Moscow, with air defense reportedly shooting down two drones in Podolsk and repelling attacks in Kolomna and Ramenskoye.
• Bryansk region is under attack.
• Airports Affected: Temporary restrictions have been imposed on the operation of Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports. The airports are not accepting or sending flights.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making substantial advances in the Donetsk region, with the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka nearing completion and a continued push towards Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces inflicting heavy losses.

The most significant development is the major escalation in drone warfare. The massive Ukrainian drone attacks across multiple regions in Russia, particularly targeting the Ryazan oil refinery, represent a new phase in the conflict. This demonstrates Ukraine's capability to strike deep inside Russian territory and target strategic assets. The ongoing attacks and air defense activity suggest a sustained campaign. The situation is fluid, and further escalation is possible. The attacks on Ryazan indicate a potential shift in Ukrainian strategy to target strategic locations deep inside Russia, potentially aiming to disrupt Russia's war effort and retaliate for attacks on Ukrainian cities.

The confirmation of a strike on the Ryazan oil refinery highlights the vulnerability of strategic targets deep within Russia and could have significant implications for Russia's fuel supply and war effort. The ongoing drone attacks across multiple regions suggest a sustained campaign aimed at disrupting Russian logistics and military operations. The involvement of North Korean soldiers, although with reports of significant casualties, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new reports of drone attacks in Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, and even the Moscow region indicate a significant escalation in Ukrainian drone warfare capabilities and a potential shift in strategy to target locations deeper inside Russia. The attacks on residential areas, as reported in Ryazan and Kursk, highlight the potential for civilian casualties and the need for enhanced air defense measures. The closure of airports in the Moscow region indicates the seriousness of the drone threat and the potential for disruption to air travel and logistics.

Changes brought by new messages:

• Confirmation of Moscow Region Drone Attacks: Reports from Moscow's mayor, Sobyanin, confirm that drone attacks were repelled in the Moscow region, specifically mentioning Kolomna, Ramenskoye, and Podolsk. This confirms that Moscow is now a target, indicating an expansion of the geographical scope of drone warfare. Air defense forces have reportedly repelled another attack in the Moscow region, and another drone was shot down in the Troitksy administrative district.
• Airport Restrictions: Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports have imposed temporary restrictions on flights, impacting air travel and potentially military logistics in the Moscow region. Temporary restrictions have also been introduced at Vnukovo airport.
• Ryazan Oil Refinery Fire: Reports confirm a fire at the Ryazan oil refinery, suggesting a successful strike and potential disruption to fuel supplies. The Transneft oil depot was also targeted.
• Bryansk Region Under Attack: Reports of air defense activity in the Bryansk region indicate that this area is also under attack, further expanding the scope of drone warfare.
• Power Outage in Kursk: A power outage in parts of Kursk has been reported following the drone attacks, demonstrating the impact on civilian infrastructure.
• New Drone Groups: Several groups of Shahed drones are moving from Poltava region towards Cherkasy region. Drones are moving through the north of Cherkasy region towards Kyiv region. New groups of drones are reported to be moving from the south, through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast.
• Lipetsk Oblast is under a yellow level of air danger.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated for Ukrainian forces, with a marked escalation in drone warfare targeting regions deep inside Russia. Russian forces continue to make substantial advances in the Donetsk region, with the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka nearing completion and a continued push towards Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces inflicting heavy losses.

The most significant development is the major escalation in drone warfare, with Ukrainian drones now targeting the Moscow region, indicating an expansion of the conflict's geographical scope. The attacks on Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions, along with the confirmation of a fire at the Ryazan oil refinery, demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike deep inside Russian territory and target strategic assets. The ongoing attacks and air defense activity suggest a sustained campaign. The situation is fluid, and further escalation is possible. The attacks on Ryazan indicate a potential shift in Ukrainian strategy to target strategic locations deep inside Russia, potentially aiming to disrupt Russia's war effort and retaliate for attacks on Ukrainian cities.

The confirmation of a strike on the Ryazan oil refinery highlights the vulnerability of strategic targets deep within Russia and could have significant implications for Russia's fuel supply and war effort. The ongoing drone attacks across multiple regions suggest a sustained campaign aimed at disrupting Russian logistics and military operations. The involvement of North Korean soldiers, although with reports of significant casualties, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new reports of drone attacks in Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, and even the Moscow region indicate a significant escalation in Ukrainian drone warfare capabilities and a potential shift in strategy to target locations deeper inside Russia. The attacks on residential areas, as reported in Ryazan and Kursk, highlight the potential for civilian casualties and the need for enhanced air defense measures. The closure of airports in the Moscow region indicates the seriousness of the drone threat and the potential for disruption to air travel and logistics. The confirmation of drone attacks in the Moscow region, along with restrictions at major airports, represents a significant escalation and demonstrates the expanding reach of Ukrainian drone warfare. The fire at the Ryazan oil refinery and reports of attacks in the Bryansk region further emphasize the widespread nature of the drone campaign. The new reports of several groups of Shahed drones moving from Poltava region towards Cherkasy region, and through the north of Cherkasy region towards Kyiv region, indicate a continued and potentially imminent threat to these areas. The new report of drones moving from the south through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast indicates a potential threat to this area. The report of a yellow level of air danger in Lipetsk Oblast suggests that this area is also under threat.