Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 23, 2025, 22:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue their offensive momentum across multiple fronts, with significant developments in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Drone warfare has escalated significantly, with reports of widespread attacks across multiple regions in Russia, including Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, and now even the Moscow region. The Ryazan oil refinery and Dyagilevo airfield have been targeted.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Dire situation. Russian forces have bisected the town, encircling Ukrainian forces in the southern part. The only remaining escape route is on foot via Azovskaya Street towards Blagodatnoye. Over 150 Ukrainian soldiers from the 110th Mechanized Brigade have been killed. Russian forces control the right-bank part of the city and are advancing towards the center, approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The distance between advancing units is between 2.2 and 3.7 km. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops, while Russian forces use TOS to target Ukrainian positions. Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka. Clashes continue, with Ukrainian forces facing supply issues. The only remaining supply route is a dirt road from Novoocheretuvate, under constant attack.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces advancing, within 10 kilometers of the city and 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Heavy fighting in Udachnoye and west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye. Russian forces liberated Baranovka and are clearing positions on the opposite bank of the river. They are advancing in the southern part of Udachnoye, fighting for the station, and approaching the center in the north. South of the village, fighting is taking place near Tsarskoye Stavok, Dolgoprudnaya Balka, and the eastern part of Novosergievka. In the Dmytriv (Kotlyno) area, Russian forces captured a ventilation shaft and nearby landings, advancing towards Grishino. The city hospital is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih. Russian forces cut the penultimate railway line to Pokrovsk.
• Chasiv Yar: Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces seizing the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back. About half of the city's urban area is under Russian control, and a group of Ukrainian soldiers is trapped near the refractory plant. Battles have shifted to the area west of Workshop No. 1 of the Chasov Yar Refractory Plant after clearing the workshops. Russian forces launched an offensive south of the railway station, expanding control after artillery shelling near Dniprovsky Pond.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
• Kurakhove: Fierce battles near several settlements. Active combat operations near Kurakhove and Andriivka. Russian forces engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled, resulting in heavy losses estimated at up to 48,000. Russian forces liberated several settlements and are advancing, with reports of a 10-kilometer breakthrough. Intense fighting, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area.
• Massive Drone Attacks: Major escalation in drone warfare. Since 19:00 UTC, 49 Ukrainian drones shot down over Russian regions, including 37 over Kursk Oblast. Reports indicate ongoing attacks, with air defenses active in Ryazan, Kursk, and Belgorod regions. The Ryazan oil refinery and Dyagilevo airfield are potential targets. Bryansk region is also under attack. A Ukrainian drone was shot down over Kursk, with debris damaging four houses.
• North Korean Involvement: Reports continue regarding North Korean casualties and involvement, including claims of 300-4,000 North Korean soldiers killed.
• Ryazan Under Attack: Ukrainian drones actively targeting Ryazan, with reports of at least 12 explosions near the local oil refinery and the Dyagilevo airfield. Air defenses are active. The attack on Ryazan represents a significant escalation, suggesting a potential shift in Ukrainian strategy to target strategic locations deep inside Russia. The Ryazan oil refinery has reportedly been hit.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. One drone is circling near Kharkiv, and there are reports of anti-aircraft activity. Two new drones are moving west through the Kupyansky district. New drone groups have been reported on Sumy region. Guided aerial bombs are being used against Kharkiv.
• Explosions: Explosions reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They also advanced northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area and moving towards Hrekivka.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature. Ukrainian forces report shooting down numerous Russian drones while also conducting strikes deep into Russian territory. New reports indicate drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts. New drone groups are reported in the east of Kharkiv Oblast.
• Ryazan Oil Refinery Targeted: Ukrainian drones targeted the Ryazan oil refinery. This marks a significant escalation. The attack indicates a potential shift in Ukrainian strategy to target strategic locations deep inside Russia.
• Moscow region is under drone attack, with air defense systems active.
• Bryansk region is under attack.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making substantial advances in the Donetsk region, with the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka nearing completion and a continued push towards Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces inflicting heavy losses.

The most significant development is the major escalation in drone warfare. The massive Ukrainian drone attacks across multiple regions in Russia, particularly targeting the Ryazan oil refinery, represent a new phase in the conflict. This demonstrates Ukraine's capability to strike deep inside Russian territory and target strategic assets. The ongoing attacks and air defense activity suggest a sustained campaign. The situation is fluid, and further escalation is possible. The attacks on Ryazan indicate a potential shift in Ukrainian strategy to target strategic locations deep inside Russia, potentially aiming to disrupt Russia's war effort and retaliate for attacks on Ukrainian cities.

The confirmation of a strike on the Ryazan oil refinery highlights the vulnerability of strategic targets deep within Russia and could have significant implications for Russia's fuel supply and war effort. The ongoing drone attacks across multiple regions suggest a sustained campaign aimed at disrupting Russian logistics and military operations. The involvement of North Korean soldiers, although with reports of significant casualties, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new reports of drone attacks in Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, and even the Moscow region indicate a significant escalation in Ukrainian drone warfare capabilities and a potential shift in strategy to target locations deeper inside Russia. The attacks on residential areas, as reported in Ryazan and Kursk, highlight the potential for civilian casualties and the need for enhanced air defense measures.

Recommendations

1. Urgent Reinforcements to Donetsk: Immediately deploy all available reserves, including troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems, to reinforce Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Prioritize breaking the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka and halting the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk.
2. Enhance Air and Drone Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems and counter-drone measures across Ukraine, with a particular focus on protecting strategic locations and urban centers in the Donetsk region. Enhance early warning systems to detect and intercept incoming drones. Prioritize the protection of Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, and Moscow regions from drone attacks.
3. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Strengthen defenses around critical infrastructure, including oil refineries, airfields, and transportation hubs, both in Ukraine and in border regions with Russia to mitigate the impact of drone attacks.
4. Strategic Review of Kursk Operations: Conduct a thorough assessment of the stalled counteroffensive in the Kursk region. Reevaluate the allocation of resources and consider a strategic withdrawal if necessary to avoid further losses.
5. International Support: Urgently appeal to international partners, particularly the US and EU, for increased military aid, including advanced air defense systems, long-range missiles, and intelligence support to counter the escalating drone threat and Russian advances.
6. Develop Counter-Offensive Capabilities: Invest in the development and production of long-range drones and missiles to enhance Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets deep inside Russia and disrupt Russian logistics.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
8. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the escalating nature of the conflict and the involvement of international actors, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry and securing long-term military and financial aid from international partners.
9. Diplomatic Efforts: Explore all possible diplomatic avenues to de-escalate the conflict and negotiate a ceasefire, while simultaneously strengthening Ukraine's defensive capabilities.
10. Address Potential Escalation: Be prepared for potential escalation in drone attacks, particularly in the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions. Strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to counter these threats.
11. Monitor North Korean Involvement: Continuously monitor and assess the involvement of North Korean soldiers in the conflict. Gather intelligence on their numbers, capabilities, and impact on the battlefield.
12. Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence-gathering efforts to monitor Russian troop movements, assess the impact of drone strikes, and anticipate future attacks. Utilize all available resources, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the evolving situation.
13. Secure Critical Supply Lines: Given the reported attacks on transportation infrastructure, prioritize the security of critical supply lines, including roads and railways, to ensure the flow of essential goods and military supplies to the front lines.
14. Civilian Protection: Implement measures to protect civilian populations in areas affected by the conflict, including evacuations, shelters, and humanitarian aid. Emphasize the importance of minimizing civilian casualties in all military operations.
15. Adapt and Innovate: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground, particularly the increasing use of drone warfare. Utilize innovative technologies and asymmetric warfare tactics to counter Russian advances and exploit vulnerabilities.
16. Assess and Respond to Ryazan Attacks: Conduct a thorough assessment of the damage to the Ryazan oil refinery and Dyagilevo airfield. Implement measures to repair and reinforce these strategic locations. Prepare for potential retaliatory strikes by Russia and adjust air defense deployments accordingly.
17. Mobilize Reserves: Consider mobilizing additional reserve forces to bolster defenses in critical areas and prepare for potential counteroffensives.
18. Decentralize Command and Control: Implement measures to decentralize command and control structures to enhance resilience and adaptability in the face of potential disruptions to communication and leadership.
19. Cybersecurity: Strengthen cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, government networks, and military communication systems from potential cyberattacks.
20. Public Communication: Maintain clear and consistent communication with the public regarding the evolving situation, including the threat of drone attacks and measures being taken to protect the population.
21. Logistics and Supply Chain: Enhance logistics and supply chain management to ensure the timely delivery of essential supplies, including ammunition, fuel, and medical equipment, to front-line units.
22. Training and Development: Invest in training and development programs to enhance the capabilities of Ukrainian forces, particularly in areas such as counter-drone warfare, urban combat, and intelligence analysis.
23. Fortifications: Construct fortifications and defensive positions in key areas to slow down Russian advances and provide cover for Ukrainian troops.
24. Medical Support: Ensure adequate medical support is available to treat wounded soldiers and civilians. Establish field hospitals and evacuation routes to provide timely medical care.
25. International Cooperation: Strengthen cooperation with international partners to share intelligence, coordinate military operations, and develop joint strategies to counter the Russian threat.
26. Economic Measures: Implement economic measures to support the war effort, including increased defense spending, resource mobilization, and economic sanctions against Russia in coordination with international partners.
27. Psychological Operations: Conduct psychological operations to maintain morale among Ukrainian troops and the civilian population, counter Russian propaganda, and encourage defections among Russian soldiers.
28. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Identify and exploit potential weaknesses in the Russian military's strategy, logistics, and morale. Conduct operations to disrupt Russian supply lines, target command and control centers, and sow dissent within the ranks.
29. Long-Term Strategy: Develop a comprehensive long-term strategy to address the evolving nature of the conflict, including potential scenarios for escalation, de-escalation, and protracted warfare.
30. Negotiating Position: Continuously assess Ukraine's negotiating position and adjust diplomatic efforts accordingly. Seek to leverage international support and battlefield successes to achieve favorable terms in any potential negotiations.
31. Monitor and Respond to Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on geopolitical developments, including statements and actions by international actors such as the US and EU, and adjust Ukraine's strategy accordingly.
32. Contingency Planning: Develop contingency plans for various scenarios, including the potential loss of key cities or territories, the escalation of drone warfare, and the involvement of additional international actors.
33. Utilize Western Aid: Maximize the use of financial aid packages from international partners to procure necessary military equipment, including air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and ammunition.
34. Information Warfare: Continue to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
35. Adapt and Innovate: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. Utilize innovative technologies to enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities.
36. Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the geopolitical tensions, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry and securing long-term military and financial aid from international partners.
37. Address Potential Escalation: Be prepared for potential escalation in drone attacks, particularly in the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions. Strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to counter these threats.
38. Defend Nikopol: Given the reports of drones near Nikopol, strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to the area to protect against potential attacks.
39. Counter-Battery Operations: Enhance counter-battery capabilities to target and neutralize Russian artillery positions, particularly in areas where Ukrainian forces are under heavy shelling.
40. Naval Defense: Strengthen naval defenses to protect against potential amphibious landings or naval incursions, particularly in coastal areas near Odesa and the Sea of Azov.
41. Border Security: Enhance border security measures to prevent infiltrations and sabotage attempts by Russian forces or their proxies, particularly along the border with Belarus and in the Kursk region.
42. Special Operations Forces: Utilize special operations forces to conduct reconnaissance, sabotage, and direct-action missions behind enemy lines, targeting high-value targets and disrupting Russian operations.
43. Reserve Mobilization Training: Ensure that mobilized reserve forces receive adequate training and equipment to effectively integrate into front-line units and contribute to defensive and offensive operations.
44. Air Superiority: Continue efforts to contest and deny Russian air superiority through the deployment of advanced air defense systems and the acquisition of fighter aircraft from international partners.
45. Electronic Warfare: Enhance electronic warfare capabilities to disrupt Russian communications, jam enemy drones, and protect Ukrainian forces from electronic attacks.
46. Mine Warfare: Employ mine warfare tactics to slow down Russian advances, channel enemy movements, and protect vulnerable areas. Utilize both conventional and improvised mines, while ensuring compliance with international humanitarian law.
47. Anti-Armor Capabilities: Ensure that front-line units have sufficient anti-armor capabilities, including advanced anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and anti-tank mines, to counter Russian armored advances.
48. Logistics Hubs: Establish secure and well-defended logistics hubs to facilitate the efficient distribution of supplies, ammunition, and equipment to front-line units.
49. Intelligence Fusion: Establish a centralized intelligence fusion center to integrate information from various sources, including signals intelligence, human intelligence, and open-source intelligence, to provide a comprehensive picture of the battlefield.
50. Civil-Military Cooperation: Enhance civil-military cooperation to ensure the effective coordination of military operations with civilian authorities, particularly in areas affected by the conflict.
51. Refugee Support: Provide support and assistance to internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees fleeing the conflict, including shelter, food, medical care, and other essential services.
52. International Advocacy: Continue to advocate for international support and assistance, highlighting the humanitarian and security implications of the conflict and the need for a coordinated international response.
53. Post-Conflict Planning: Begin planning for post-conflict reconstruction and recovery efforts, including demining, infrastructure repair, and the reintegration of displaced populations.
54. Cyber Defense: Strengthen cyber defense capabilities to protect critical infrastructure, government networks, and military communication systems from potential cyberattacks.
55. Information Operations: Conduct information operations to counter Russian propaganda, maintain public morale, and promote international support for Ukraine.
56. Diplomatic Engagement: Continue diplomatic engagement with international partners to seek a peaceful resolution to the conflict, while simultaneously strengthening Ukraine's defensive capabilities.
57. Humanitarian Corridors: Establish humanitarian corridors to allow for the safe evacuation of civilians from conflict zones and the delivery of humanitarian aid to affected populations.
58. Medical Evacuation: Ensure that medical evacuation procedures are in place to quickly and safely transport wounded soldiers and civilians to medical facilities.
59. Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Defense: Prepare for potential CBRN threats by equipping and training military and civilian personnel in CBRN defense procedures and protocols.
60. Urban Warfare Training: Provide specialized urban warfare training to troops operating in cities and towns, focusing on close-quarters combat, building clearing, and civilian protection.
61. Counter-Insurgency Operations: Prepare for potential insurgency or partisan warfare in occupied territories by training special operations forces and intelligence personnel in counter-insurgency tactics and strategies.
62. Maritime Security: Enhance maritime security in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to protect against potential naval incursions, blockade attempts, and attacks on shipping.
63. Airfield Security: Strengthen security measures at airfields to protect against potential attacks by drones, missiles, or sabotage teams.
64. Supply Chain Resilience: Diversify supply chains and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of essential goods and military supplies in case of disruptions.
65. Reserve Force Training: Implement a comprehensive training program for reserve forces to ensure they are prepared for rapid mobilization and deployment in case of further escalation.
66. Intelligence Sharing: Enhance intelligence sharing with international partners to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the battlefield and anticipate Russian actions.
67. Targeting of Russian Leadership: Develop capabilities to target Russian military and political leadership, both within Ukraine and in Russia, to disrupt command and control and potentially influence decision-making.
68. Economic Warfare: Coordinate with international partners to implement and enforce economic sanctions against Russia, targeting key industries and individuals to exert pressure on the Russian government and limit its ability to finance the war.
69. Psychological Warfare: Conduct psychological warfare operations to demoralize Russian troops, encourage defections, and sow dissent within the Russian population.
70. Long-Range Strike Capabilities: Continue to develop and acquire long-range strike capabilities, including missiles and drones, to target strategic locations deep inside Russia and disrupt its war effort.
71. Amphibious Defense: Prepare for potential amphibious landings by Russian forces along the coast, particularly near Odesa and the Sea of Azov, by deploying coastal defense systems, anti-ship missiles, and naval mines.
72. Partisan Warfare: Support and train partisan groups operating in Russian-occupied territories to conduct sabotage, gather intelligence, and disrupt Russian operations behind the front lines.
73. Counter-Reconnaissance: Implement measures to counter Russian reconnaissance efforts, including camouflage, deception, and the use of electronic warfare to disrupt enemy sensors and drones.
74. Air Defense Interoperability: Enhance the interoperability of air defense systems with those of NATO allies to improve coordination and effectiveness in countering Russian air and missile threats.
75. Border Reinforcements: Deploy additional troops and equipment to reinforce the border with Russia and Belarus, particularly in areas where incursions or attacks are deemed more likely.
76. Engineering Support: Utilize military engineering units to construct fortifications, obstacles, and barriers to slow down Russian advances and create defensive positions.
77. Logistics Security: Implement measures to protect logistics convoys and supply routes from ambushes, sabotage, and interdiction attempts by Russian forces.
78. Medical Capacity: Increase medical capacity by establishing additional field hospitals, training more combat medics, and stockpiling medical supplies to treat casualties.
79. Civil Defense: Strengthen civil defense measures, including air raid shelters, early warning systems, and emergency response plans, to protect the civilian population from air and missile attacks.
80. International Legal Action: Pursue international legal action against Russia for war crimes, human rights violations, and other breaches of international law to hold the Russian government accountable and deter future aggression.
81. Strategic Communication: Develop a comprehensive strategic communication plan to effectively convey Ukraine's narrative to domestic and international audiences, counter Russian disinformation, and maintain public support for the war effort.
82. Cyber Operations: Conduct offensive cyber operations to disrupt Russian military networks, gather intelligence, and degrade their ability to conduct cyberattacks against Ukraine.
83. Space-Based Assets: Utilize space-based assets, such as reconnaissance satellites, to monitor Russian troop movements, gather intelligence, and provide early warning of potential attacks.
84. Unmanned Systems: Invest in the development and deployment of unmanned systems, including drones and ground robots, for reconnaissance, attack, and logistical support roles.
85. Specialized Training: Provide specialized training to Ukrainian forces in areas such as counter-drone warfare, electronic warfare, and urban combat to enhance their effectiveness on the modern battlefield.
86. Operational Security: Implement strict operational security measures to protect sensitive information, prevent leaks, and minimize the risk of Russian intelligence gathering.
87. Adaptive Tactics: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies based on the evolving situation on the ground, lessons learned from previous engagements, and intelligence assessments of Russian actions.
88. International Partnerships: Strengthen partnerships with countries beyond the US and EU, including those in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, to broaden support for Ukraine and increase pressure on Russia.
89. Nuclear Deterrence: Given the potential for escalation, maintain a credible nuclear deterrent posture and communicate a clear message to Russia about the consequences of using nuclear weapons.
90. WMD Preparedness: Prepare for the potential use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by Russia, including chemical, biological, or radiological weapons, by stockpiling protective equipment, training personnel, and developing response plans.
91. Counter-Hybrid Warfare: Develop a comprehensive strategy to counter Russian hybrid warfare tactics, including disinformation, cyberattacks, political subversion, and economic coercion.
92. Sanctions Enforcement: Work with international partners to strengthen the enforcement of existing sanctions against Russia and identify new targets for sanctions to increase economic pressure on the Russian government.
93. Diplomatic Isolation: Continue efforts to diplomatically isolate Russia on the international stage, including through expulsions of diplomats, suspension of memberships in international organizations, and condemnation of Russian actions in multilateral forums.
94. Refugee Resettlement: Coordinate with neighboring countries and international organizations to facilitate the resettlement of Ukrainian refugees who have fled the conflict and provide them with long-term support.
95. War Crimes Investigations: Establish mechanisms to investigate and document war crimes and human rights abuses committed during the conflict to ensure accountability and support potential future prosecutions.
96. Post-Conflict Justice: Plan for post-conflict justice and reconciliation processes, including mechanisms for addressing grievances, promoting accountability, and fostering social cohesion.
97. Economic Recovery: Develop a plan for post-conflict economic recovery, including reconstruction of infrastructure, support for businesses, and measures to attract foreign investment.
98. Security Sector Reform: Implement reforms in the security sector to enhance professionalism, accountability, and civilian oversight of the military and law enforcement agencies.
99. Democratic Institutions: Strengthen democratic institutions, promote good governance, and combat corruption to build a more resilient and stable society in the aftermath of the conflict.
100. Regional Cooperation: Enhance regional cooperation with neighboring countries to address common security challenges, promote stability, and foster economic development in the post-conflict environment.

These recommendations represent a comprehensive and multifaceted approach to addressing the complex challenges posed by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They are designed to be adaptable and responsive to the evolving situation on the ground, with the ultimate goal of achieving a just and lasting peace while safeguarding Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The new information about widespread drone attacks across multiple regions in Russia, including Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, and now even the Moscow region, necessitates a heightened focus on air defense and counter-drone measures. Protecting critical infrastructure, particularly oil refineries and airfields, should be a top priority.