Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 23, 2025, 19:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces continuing their offensive momentum across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. In Velyka Novosilka, the situation is dire, with Ukrainian defenses under immense pressure from multiple directions. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly in the eastern and southern outskirts, and have reportedly achieved some success in encircling the town. Ukrainian forces are facing heavy losses, and there are concerns about the potential for a complete encirclement. In Pokrovsk, Russian forces are advancing from multiple directions and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city. Heavy fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces making progress in the northern part of the city and securing the key area of a refractory plant. The Kursk region sees a stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive, continued Russian operations to neutralize Ukrainian incursions, and reports of North Korean casualties. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian drone in the Kursk region.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Russian forces are intensifying their offensive, establishing positions in the city's northeast and southeast.
  • Ukrainian military sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka. The last road supplying the city is practically under Russian control.
  • Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka, forming a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.
  • The situation for the Ukrainian forces is described as extremely difficult, with Russian forces closing in from three directions and now approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • Russian forces have reportedly occupied the northeastern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka.
  • Clashes continue in other areas around Velyka Novosilka, with Ukrainian forces facing an increasingly difficult situation due to supply issues.
  • The only remaining supply route is a dirt road from the direction of Novoocheretuvate, which is under constant attack.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces are continuing their offensive to liberate Velyka Novosilka, having established positions on the northeastern and southeastern parts of the city.
  • The enemy is reportedly fleeing Velyka Novosilka, and strikes are being carried out on the crossing with personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • Russian forces have blocked Ukrainian forces in the northern and southern parts of Velyka Novosilka without escape routes.
  • The "Vostok" group is reportedly using all available means to attack the blocked enemy.
  • The garrison in Velyka Novosilka is almost divided in two.
  • Russian forces have reached the Ukrainian street from Pervomaiskaya street and are fighting between Shkolnaya and Gagarina streets.
  • Russian forces hold positions along the banks of the Mokrye Yaly and Kashlagach rivers.
  • The escape route for Ukrainian forces is not physically blocked but is under fire control and limited by the Mokrye Yaly river.
  • The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion. All roads are reportedly under Russian fire control.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in Velyka Novosilka.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian armored vehicle in the area.
  • Part of the Ukrainian forces defending Velyka Novosilka is effectively in operational encirclement.
  • The situation for the Ukrainian forces is developing even worse than it was in Vuhledar, where the garrison managed to retreat from the city through the landings near the northern outskirts.
  • Video evidence shows Russian TOS targeting Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilka.
  • Video evidence shows multiple explosions in a rural area near the city.
  • Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault.
  • Russian forces conducted a double strike on Ukrainian vehicles near the city.
  • Video evidence shows the mass destruction of armored vehicles and enemy infantry near the boiler room.
  • The city is reportedly in a "semi-encirclement."
  • Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces are squeezing the remnants of the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which are trapped between the Kashlagach and Mokrye Yaly rivers.
  • Video evidence shows the work of Russian "Solntsepyok" systems on Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilka.
  • The Ukrainian command has acknowledged the risk of an operational encirclement of Velyka Novosilka.
  • The 110th Mechanized Brigade and attached units are in an operational encirclement, meaning that no free routes of communication remain, and no combat vehicles can enter or exit.
  • The situation is further complicated by the fact that evacuation of the wounded is impossible, leading to increased losses.
  • The command is urged to make a decision regarding the defense of this area, as further delays could result in significant losses and the inability to hold the next convenient line of defense.
  • New: After the occupation of Neskuchne and Vremivka, the enemy has concentrated its attention on the village in recent days and has launched active assault operations to capture it.
  • New: The enemy has quite a flexible operational space for conducting offensive actions, and having accumulated resources for this, it is implementing them from different points of the settlement.
  • New: The most active enemy infantry is crawling on the eastern outskirts of the village and, unfortunately, has had some success in advancing.
  • New: The enemy has been accumulating manpower for these maneuvers for a fairly long period of time, building fortifications to entrench themselves there, and now is constantly exerting pressure, using the occupied positions.
  • New: Pressure continues on the southern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, as well as from the side of Vremivka on the western side of Velyka Novosilka.
  • New: The infantry is recorded in different parts of the settlement, which is carrying out assault operations in groups of, on average, 10 people.
  • New: For reinforcement, the Russians have fire support in the form of equipment, aviation, in particular, helicopters, as well as artillery, mortars, drones...
  • New: The Defense Forces are making every effort to prevent the enemy from advancing and occupying the village, but it is difficult to do this under pressure from virtually all sides.
  • New: How events will develop will show, and we hope that the tactical situation that has developed around Velyka Novosilka will not become the reason for senseless losses of personnel of the Ukrainian military.
  • New: It is already impossible to change it - it is too late.

• Pokrovsk Direction:

  • Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city.
  • "Otvazhnye" forces are reportedly continuing their offensive towards Pokrovsk, destroying NATO equipment and Ukrainian infantry.
  • Russian forces are engaged in active combat operations near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk), with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
  • Russian forces reportedly advanced more than 1.5 km north of Novoelizavetovka on the southern flank of Krasnoarmiisk.
  • Russian forces have reportedly advanced in Zverevo and towards the western outskirts of Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi).
  • Fighting continues in Udachne and near Dmytrovo (Kotlyne), with Ukrainian counterattacks repelled.
  • Russian forces are also advancing towards Novosergievka and have made progress in Lysivka.
  • Russian forces have also attacked in the direction of Sukhyi Yar, Promin, Myrolyubivka, near Yelyzavetivka, and north of Hrodivka.
  • Fighting continues near Baranivka and Zelene Pole.
  • The city hospital is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih.
  • Russian forces are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2.
  • They are within 5-7 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city.
  • The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of key supply lines significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement.
  • Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka.
  • Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near several settlements.
  • Five clashes are ongoing.
  • Ukrainian losses are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded, three vehicles destroyed, and one antenna of a UAV, with two additional vehicles significantly damaged.
  • Reports of the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" potentially ceasing operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine.
  • Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky dedicated the day to working in the Pokrovsk direction, where the enemy is concentrating its main efforts and conducting active offensive operations.
  • There are ongoing fierce battles on the Pokrovsk front, with 45 enemy attacks since the beginning of the day, 35 of which have been repelled by Ukrainian defenders.
  • New: Video evidence shows paratroopers of the 79th Brigade dismantling enemy armored vehicles in the Pokrovsk area.
  • New: Video evidence shows "Otvazhnye" forces massively burning NATO equipment and infantry of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, advancing on Pokrovsk.
  • New: The footage shows the effective combat work of the fighters of the "Center" group for January 22 to destroy NATO and other military equipment, weapons, infantry and positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during active offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces reportedly seizing the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back.
  • South of the Novyi microdistrict in the forest area on the territory of the Mir and Bunker children's camp, Russian forces dislodged the enemy from the buildings and eliminated an enemy group.
  • Russian forces cleared the forest area and advanced another 800 meters.
  • Near the Dniprovskyi pond in Chasov Yar, Russian artillerymen from the "Grad" MLRS engaged enemy positions.
  • Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area.
  • Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar.
  • Reports of Russian forces making significant advances in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and engaging in battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant.
  • Russian forces have reportedly advanced 500 meters in the center of Chasiv Yar.
  • About half of the city's urban area is under Russian control.
  • A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant.
  • Tactical successes are reported, with the 200th Brigade pushing the enemy out of the "Десятый" microdistrict and currently liberating the "Новосеверный" microdistrict.
  • Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
  • The 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard targeted Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar.
  • The "Rodnya" Battalion is reporting from within Chasiv Yar, indicating ongoing fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces.
  • The battalion's current focus is on securing the flanks to the north and south of the city rather than immediate urban clearing operations.
  • New: The main events are now unfolding in Velyka Novosilka, where the defense has transitioned into a phase of agony, in Dzerzhinsk, where our forces are gradually pushing the defense at the mine, and in Chasiv Yar, where the battles for the high-rise quarter are of key importance.
  • New: The enemy may lose these three major settlements quite soon.

• Kurakhove:

  • On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Clashes were reported near Vremivka, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka.
  • Active combat operations are reported near Kurakhove.
  • Most of Kurakhove is under Russian control, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno and for strongholds.
  • Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank.
  • Reports of fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka.
  • Positional fighting is reported in the Kurakhove - Dachne area.
  • Russian assault units reportedly captured new positions north of the Kurakhove sludge dumps, advancing 1.5 km west along the Dachne - Yantarne line.
  • Active combat operations are ongoing in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
  • New: Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.

• Kramatorsk:

  • The city experienced a powerful explosion in the industrial zone, with the number of casualties rising to eight.
  • Power outages are also reported, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city.
  • Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.

• Zaporizhzhia:

  • A drone was reported flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.
  • An air raid alert has been reissued for the region.
  • The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two.
  • The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.

• Toretsk:

  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
  • Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
  • Three combat clashes are still ongoing.
  • Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
  • Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine.
  • In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.
  • Russian forces are consolidating positions on strategically important sections near Dzerzhinsk after a coordinated offensive supported by air power, artillery, and drones.
  • Control over the mine dumps of the Fomikha and No. 12 mines has been established, hindering the enemy's defensive capabilities.
  • Despite futile attempts by the enemy to hold the line in Krymske, significant territorial and personnel losses are reported.
  • The last line of defense for the enemy remains at the Toretskaya mine.
  • Six streets in Krymske remain under enemy control.

• Other:

  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs (KAB) in the direction of Kostiantynivka and Slovyansk.
  • A TASS report states that a Russian strike on the "Luch" design bureau in Kyiv may have eliminated foreign specialists servicing HIMARS MLRS.
  • Photos show the detention of a lawyer accused of recruiting agents for Russian intelligence.
  • The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.
  • Ukrainian defenses are built around mine waste heaps.
  • Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs against these positions and drone control points.
  • Fighting is ongoing in the landings near the city dump to the northwest.
  • Russian forces shelled the Donetsk region 23 times in the past 24 hours, using 69 munitions.
  • Explosions were reported in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk, with at least ten explosions counted.
  • A loud drone sound was also reported.
  • Another explosion was reported in Lidiivka (Donetsk region), with windows blown out in one house.
  • New: The defense operation in Novovasylivka has ended, and the village is now occupied by Russian forces.
  • New: The 59th Motorized Brigade held the defense for over a month in difficult conditions, and for the last two weeks in full encirclement.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses estimated at up to 48,000. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka.

• Intense Fighting: Ongoing active fighting is reported, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor. Reports indicate an impending decisive battle.

• Drone Warfare:

  • Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops.
  • Electronic warfare specialists are also active, detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs.
  • A successful strike by the "Biker's team" on a Russian position in the Kursk region is reported, with the destruction of "Molniya" kamikaze drones.
  • New: Video evidence shows a drone operator of the Russian Guard destroying a Ukrainian 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.

• North Korean Involvement:

  • South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed.
  • Ukrainian forces report the capture of a North Korean soldier.
  • A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled.
  • An image from "STERNENKO" shows a wanted poster for three North Korean soldiers accused of killing five Russian marines.
  • Western officials cited by the BBC report that about 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region while fighting against Ukraine.
  • As of mid-January, North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region reportedly suffered around 4,000 casualties, including both killed and wounded.

• Other:

  • Russian forces report finding the mutilated bodies of elderly people in Russkoe Porechnoe.
  • From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed.
  • The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
  • A captured Ukrainian soldier in the Kursk region stated that he joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces to surrender to Russia.
  • In the Kursk region, for the first time, a Russian soldier was convicted of looting.
  • The verdict was handed down on January 15, but the punishment is unknown.

Kharkiv Region

• Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes are reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian airstrikes targeting several settlements and Veterynarne, Hlushkivka, Shyykivka, and Borivsk Andriyivka.

• Drone Attacks:

  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • A Russian drone reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, injuring one person.
  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in the western and central parts of Kharkiv region, heading west.
  • Drones are also reported north of Kharkiv, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava regions, heading west.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • A new group of Russian drones is reported in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, with a west/southwest course.

• Explosions in Kharkiv:

  • Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.
  • A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community.
  • Explosions are reported in the Kharkiv area, likely outside the city.

• Russian Advance:

  • Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
  • They have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
  • They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.

• Other:

  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Borova is under threat of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) attack, and that enemy tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
  • Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with deteriorating security conditions.
  • Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that guided aerial bombs have been launched towards Zolochiv.
  • Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
  • New drone groups are reported on the east and in the central part of the Kharkiv region, with a western/southwestern course.
  • Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the north of Kharkiv Oblast.
  • A guided aerial bomb (KAB) was reported in the direction of Staryi Saltiv (Kharkiv Oblast).
  • New: On the right bank of the Oskol, Russian forces are continuing to push through Ukrainian defenses and are expanding their control zone towards the western part of Dvurichna in the direction of Sagunivka.
  • New: Fighting continues in the area of Zelenyi Hai, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to improve their tactical position by attacking from Borova Andriivka.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances:

  • Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
  • They have also advanced northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area and moving towards Hrekivka.
  • Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, destroying several Ukrainian strongholds.
  • Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka in the LPR.
  • Russian forces have reportedly taken the heights behind Makiivka (LPR).
  • They also report advances beyond Nadiya towards the border with the Kharkiv region and have expanded their control zone to Belohorivka on the Krasnolimanske direction.
  • Fighting is ongoing on its outskirts.
  • They are also advancing northwest of Ivanivka towards Kolodyazne.
  • Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
  • Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka.

• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.

• Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.

• Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported in the Krasnyi Lyman - Ivanivka area.

• Russian forces have reportedly expanded their control zone on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanivka.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity:
  • Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions, with new groups of attack drones reported.
  • Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
  • Drones are reported north of Kamyanske in Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading west.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south.
  • A map of air raid alerts shows that air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west.
  • New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions.
  • There are reports of drones in various districts, including Belotserkovsky, Akhtyrka, Kupyansky, and Berislavsky.
  • New reports indicate 5 drones are flying past Bashtanka towards the Voznesensky district, 1 drone flew past Kryvyi Rih into the Kirovohrad region, 1 drone over Kropyvnytskyi, 2 drones in the Kamensky area, 7 drones in the Kremenchug district in a northwesterly direction, 4 drones circling in the Kupyansk area, 2 drones north of Lozova, Kharkiv region, in a westerly direction, 3 drones heading towards/through Nizhyn, 3 drones from Sumy region flying to Chernihiv region, 1 drone in the north of Poltava region in a westerly direction, 1 new drone from the Black Sea in the direction of Fontanka.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are moving in the Mykolaiv region from the south.
  • The city of Chernomorsk and the city of Odessa are under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the south.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: south of Sumy Oblast (westward course), west and southeast of Chernihiv Oblast (west/southwest course), center of Poltava Oblast (northeast course), west of Kirovohrad Oblast (south course), north and southeast of Kyiv Oblast (west/south course), north of Donetsk Oblast (west/east course), and Odesa Oblast (east course, towards Chornomorsk).
  • 1 drone is reported south of Uman, 2 in the north of Kyiv Oblast (westward course), 3 passing through Pereiaslav (southwest course), 1 moving from Kharkiv to Poltava Oblast, and 1 moving from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast.
  • A drone was reported to be approaching Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • Two drones are circling in the north of Poltava Oblast.
  • One drone is circling in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • One drone is approaching Zhytomyr.
  • New drones are detected in the Black Sea, moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of attack drones moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones in the Ternopil region from Khmelnytskyi.
  • Seven drones are reported to be moving from the Black Sea towards Tatarbunary and are likely to turn towards Izmail.
  • One drone is reported to be moving from the Khmelnytskyi region to the Ternopil region.
  • Two drones are still circling in the north of the Poltava region.
  • A drone is circling near Starokonstantinov.
  • 12 drones from the Black Sea are flying towards Tatarbunary and then towards the Izmail district.
  • Groups of attack drones are reported on Sumy Oblast, with most on the south of the oblast, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • 2 drones are reported to be heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
  • 1 drone is reported to be flying from Dnipropetrovsk region towards Oleksandriia.
  • 1 drone is reported to be north of Cherkasy, moving west.
  • 4 drones are circling the Okhtyrka area.
  • Cherkasy Oblast is under threat of a drone attack.
  • A Russian drone is moving in the direction of Myrhorod from the northeast.
  • A drone is also reported in the Shyshaky area (Poltava region), moving south.
  • Drones on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv,

Changes compared to the previous 6 hours

• Donetsk Region: Continued fighting in Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. New reports detailing the dire situation in Velyka Novosilka, with Ukrainian forces facing heavy pressure and the risk of encirclement. Russian forces are reported to have made significant progress, particularly on the eastern and southern outskirts of the town. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent further Russian advances but are facing a critical situation.
• Kursk Region: Continued Russian advances and new video evidence of fighting. Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes and casualties. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian drone.
• Luhansk Region: Further Russian advances reported.
• Drone Warfare: Continued widespread drone activity, with new reports of drones in various regions. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian drone in the Kursk region.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to make significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Velyka Novosilka is particularly critical, with Ukrainian defenses under immense pressure and facing the risk of a complete encirclement. Russian forces have reportedly made significant progress on the eastern and southern outskirts of the town and are attempting to close off the remaining supply routes. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stalled, and Russian forces continue to advance. Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with ongoing attacks across multiple regions. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, as reported by South Korean intelligence and Ukrainian sources, adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of foreign involvement on the Russian side. The geopolitical developments, particularly the comments from the Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker, highlight the complex international landscape surrounding the conflict. The meeting between Zelensky and the Lithuanian parliament speaker underscores the ongoing diplomatic efforts to support Ukraine and strengthen its position in the international arena. The confirmation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and reports that Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel further complicate the geopolitical situation. The new statements from Donald Trump regarding his intention to meet with Vladimir Putin and his claim that the US has a right to half of TikTok, along with his decree to create a new government structure headed by Elon Musk, add further complexity to the US political landscape and its potential impact on the conflict. French President Macron's statement that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table, along with his call for increased recruitment of volunteers into the French army, further complicates the situation.

New Military Updates

• Drone Attacks: Reports of drone attacks continue, with new reports of drones in various regions, including Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
• Russian Advances in Donetsk and Luhansk: Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with reports of heavy fighting and new territorial gains. The situation in Velyka Novosilka is particularly critical, with Ukrainian forces facing heavy pressure and the risk of encirclement.
• Drone Warfare: The downing of a Russian drone in the Kursk region demonstrates the ongoing intensity of drone warfare. The use of drones by both sides continues to be a defining feature of the conflict.

Geopolitical Updates

• Trump's Statements: US President Donald Trump's statements about increasing NATO defense spending, supplying energy resources to Europe,