Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 23, 2025

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. In the Donetsk region, the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion, with Russian forces reportedly blocking Ukrainian units in the northern and southern parts of the city. The situation in Pokrovsk remains serious, with Russian forces reportedly within 10 kilometers of the city and continuing their advance. Heavy fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces making further advances. Russian forces have also made gains in the Luhansk region, capturing Zakhidne. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units that had previously broken through. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported, including the introduction of a new Russian drone, the "Mikrob," with AI capabilities. The Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements in several regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:
  • New: Russian forces are within 1.5 km of complete encirclement.
  • New: Ukrainian forces are blocked in the northern and southern parts, with escape routes cut off.
  • New: The "Vostok" group is using all means to attack the blocked enemy.
  • New: Video evidence shows the work of "Iskavodov" from the 381st Artillery Regiment of the 150th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, targeting and destroying a British L-119 howitzer near Velyka Novosilka.
  • New: Video evidence shows Russian forces from the "Vostok" group destroying a Ukrainian command post near Velyka Novosilka. Over 150 Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly killed, and the remaining forces are trapped.
  • New: Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
  • New: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that the enemy is fleeing Velyka Novosilka and that strikes are being carried out on the crossing with personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The message also states that the cleanup of the neighborhoods is currently underway.
• Pokrovsk:
  • New: Russian forces are reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city.
  • New: Video evidence shows Russian forces using a drone to target a Ukrainian armored pickup truck in the Kursk region.
  • New: Bійці роти матеріального забезпечення 1-го окремого штурмового батальону «Да Вінчі» need help near Pokrovsk.
  • New: Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area of the Kursk region.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • New: Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
  • New: Russian artillerymen from the "Grad" MLRS engaged enemy positions near the Dniprovskyi pond.
  • New: Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area.
  • New: Video evidence shows operators of FPV drones of the Russian Armed Forces attacking enemy shelters on the Kherson direction.
  • New: Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian positions and equipment on the Zaporizhzhia front. A generator and a suspected Javelin anti-tank missile system were among the targets destroyed.
  • New: Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting a building in Zaporizhzhia with four missiles.
  • New: Video evidence shows homemade munitions being produced in field workshops by Russian engineers from the "SSO Byzantium".
• Kurakhove:
  • New: Video evidence shows the work of "Iskavodov" from the 381st Artillery Regiment of the 150th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, targeting and destroying a British L-119 howitzer near Kurakhove.
  • New: A new video shows fighters from Yakutia with the callsigns Amga and Gorets, who evacuated civilians from Vremivka under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Toretsk:
  • No new major updates.
• Dzerzhinsk:
  • No new major updates.
• Kramatorsk:
  • No new major updates.
• Zverevo:
  • No new major updates.
• Donetsk:
  • No new major updates.
• Other:
  • No new major updates.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• New: Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian positions and equipment on the Zaporizhzhia front. A generator and a suspected Javelin anti-tank missile system were among the targets destroyed.
• New: Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting a building in Zaporizhzhia with four missiles.
• New: The number of victims from the night attack in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 46, with 22 hospitalized, including a two-month-old boy in stable condition.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive:
  • New: Russian forces are continuing an operation to neutralize an enemy group that broke into the territory.
  • New: The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements.
  • New: Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery strikes engaged AFU manpower and hardware near several settlements.
  • New: Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
  • New: Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
  • New: The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
• Drone Warfare:
  • New: Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • New: Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
  • New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying Russian military vehicles and equipment in the Kursk region, including a truck, 10 cars, an ATV, and an armored fighting vehicle.
  • New: A video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel shows an FPV drone targeting a mortar position near the Antonovsky Bridge.
  • New: Video evidence shows an American-made "Abrams" tank being destroyed by a Russian "Lancet" drone near Viktorivka.
  • New: Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Russian strike on a Ukrainian dugout.
  • New: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones targeting and destroying Ukrainian military equipment, including a tank and an armored personnel carrier.
• Other:
  • New: The damage in the Kursk region from Ukrainian attacks is estimated at over 750 billion rubles, with 21% of the territory affected by the fighting.
  • New: Video evidence shows the interrogation of a captured Russian soldier who surrendered after being cornered by Ukrainian drones.
  • New: "Архангел Спецназа" Telegram channel announced a fundraising campaign to purchase another "Буханка" vehicle for a Russian airborne unit.
  • New: The Republic of Buryatia is reportedly ready to supply large batches of the "Courier" ground robotic complex (НРТК) to the troops, which is capable of autonomous fire.
• North Korean Involvement:
  • No new major updates.

Kharkiv Region

• Clashes and Airstrikes:
  • New: The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, reported a threat of enemy drone attacks across the Kharkiv region, with reports of explosions and air defense activity. Two police officers were injured in Osinovo due to a drone attack.
• Explosions in Kharkiv:
  • No new major updates.

Luhansk Region

• Borova Direction:
  • New: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.
• New: North of Kupiansk on the right bank of the Oskil River, units of the "West" group have liberated the settlement of Zakhidne, with a wedge into the enemy's defenses measuring 4.5 km in depth from the Oskil River to the west.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity:
  • New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones: in the southern part of the Kharkiv region, with a north-westerly course. They also report the movement of attack drones in Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • New: A new group of attack drones is reported in the south of the Sumy region, with a south-westerly course.
  • New: One drone is reported flying near Balovnoe, one is flying near Bereznegovatoe, two are flying near Krivoy Rog, one is flying near Pereyaslav, and one is flying north of Kupyansk.
  • New: New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug.
• New Drone Technology:
  • New: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare.
  • New: "Colonelcassad" reports that the first 3,000 "Mikrob" kamikaze drones with artificial intelligence, allowing autonomous target tracking after operator acquisition, have been delivered to the special military operation zone in Ukraine. The drone is said to have sufficient dynamic characteristics, including high speed and maneuverability. According to reports from the Ministry of Defense, one unit using 40 drones destroyed enemy equipment worth more than the cost of all 3,000 drones produced.
  • New: DJI has released a new drone, the DJI Matrice 4T, which features two advanced cameras with improved detail and a new thermal imager. It also includes a laser rangefinder for precise distance measurement and AI technology for easier detection of vehicles and people.
• Smolensk Under Attack:
  • New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that over the past day, air defense systems intercepted 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in various regions, including LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
  • New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that air defense forces shot down three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the Black Sea off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the strike on the oil depot in the Voronezh region and the aircraft factory in the Smolensk region.
• Other:
  • New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to destroy a Russian "TOR-M2" air defense system in the Zaporizhzhia region.
  • New: Ukrainian forces report a successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system using an FPV drone.

Geopolitical Developments

• New: A TASS report states that Slovakia is threatened with destabilization by those who participated in similar events in Georgia, according to a representative of the Fico party.
• New: Trump threatened Putin with taxes, duties, and sanctions on all Russian goods if Moscow refuses to make peace in Ukraine, according to "Север.Реалии."
• New: A message from the "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel quotes the head of the German Foreign Ministry as saying that if Russia continues to advance, "we do not know where they will stop." She also suggests that after Trump takes office, a new situation may arise that could lead to further actions by Putin.
• New: The Ukrainian news agency RBC reports that Donald Trump gave his first television interview as the 47th President of the United States. In the interview, he reiterated that the war in Ukraine would not have happened if he were president. He also hinted at the possible prosecution of his predecessor, Joe Biden.
• New: The "Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia)" Telegram channel posted a message stating that "Ukraine's loss is Finland's loss," indicating a clear defeat.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making significant advances in the Donetsk region and maintaining pressure across multiple fronts. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion, and Russian forces are closing in on Pokrovsk. In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces continue to make gains, while in the Luhansk region, they have captured Zakhidne. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating their positions and repelling Ukrainian incursions.

Drone warfare remains a critical aspect of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The introduction of the new AI-equipped "Mikrob" drone by Russian forces adds a new dimension to the conflict, potentially enhancing their reconnaissance and strike capabilities. Ukrainian forces continue to report drone movements across various regions, indicating an ongoing threat. The reported successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system by Ukrainian forces demonstrates their continued ability to target and destroy Russian military assets.

Geopolitically, the situation remains tense, with new threats from Trump towards Russia if peace is not achieved. The reported destabilization threat to Slovakia and comments from the head of the German Foreign Ministry add further complexity to the regional dynamics. Trump's first television interview as the 47th President of the United States and his comments about the war in Ukraine have further implications for the conflict.

The new reports of drone movements, particularly in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions, highlight the persistent threat posed by drone warfare. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts underscore the ongoing danger and the need for constant vigilance. The introduction of the new DJI Matrice 4T drone, with its advanced capabilities, could potentially enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities for both sides, further intensifying the technological aspect of the conflict.

The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, fighting alongside Russian forces, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. Reports of North Korean casualties and the capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces highlight the international dimension of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.

The ongoing fighting in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar, underscores the intensity of the conflict and the determination of both sides to achieve their objectives. The reported advances by Russian forces in these areas suggest a shift in momentum, with Ukrainian forces facing significant challenges in holding their positions.

The situation in the Kursk region, with the stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive and the reported Russian operations to neutralize Ukrainian units, further complicates the overall military situation. The reported losses on both sides, as well as the involvement of North Korean soldiers, highlight the scale and intensity of the fighting in this area.

The continued drone warfare, including attacks deep inside Russian territory, demonstrates the evolving nature of the conflict and the increasing importance of unmanned aerial systems in modern warfare. The reported use of new drone technologies, such as the "Mikrob" drone and the DJI Matrice 4T, underscores the technological arms race between the two sides.

The geopolitical developments, including Trump's threats towards Russia and the comments from European officials, add another layer of uncertainty to the conflict. The potential for further escalation and the involvement of international actors highlight the complex and multifaceted nature of the situation in Ukraine.

The updated situation reflects a dynamic and volatile conflict, with Russian forces making significant advances in the Donetsk region and maintaining pressure across multiple fronts. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, the ongoing drone warfare, and the involvement of North Korean soldiers further complicate the situation. The geopolitical developments add another layer of uncertainty, with the potential for further escalation and international involvement.