Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 23, 2025, 10:38 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains dynamic, with Russian forces maintaining offensive operations across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of heavy fighting, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. In Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces have bisected the town, encircling Ukrainian forces in the southern part. Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka are in a precarious situation, with reports indicating that the only way out is on foot and that an evacuation is being organized, prioritizing the 1st Presidential Brigade of the National Guard. In Pokrovsk, Russian forces are advancing, reportedly within 10 kilometers of the city and 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Heavy fighting is reported in Udachnoye and west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye. In Toretsk, Ukrainian defenses are reportedly collapsing, with Russian forces controlling most of the city except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine, and 600 meters in Petrivka. Russian forces have captured most of the mining complex and part of Krymske in the Dzerzhinsk area. Russian forces have liberated Solene in the Donetsk People's Republic.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory and are advancing, with reports of a 10-kilometer breakthrough and the liberation of several settlements. Intense fighting is reported near Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces launching counterattacks. There are also reports of heavy fighting in Makhnovka. North Korean soldiers are reportedly involved in the fighting in the Kursk region, with reports of casualties among them. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. Russian forces are reportedly using fiber-optic drones, which are more resistant to electronic warfare, to target Ukrainian positions and equipment. Ukrainian forces are also using drones extensively, with reports of them destroying a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. The damage in the Kursk region from Ukrainian attacks is estimated at over 750 billion rubles, with 21% of the territory affected by the fighting.
In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Ivanovka and advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have reportedly expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.
In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km. Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 26 "Shahed" drones over the Sumi region overnight, and one drone was shot down over the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukrainian air defenses also shot down 2 "Shahed" drones over the Mykolaiv Oblast.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
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Velyka Novosilka:
- Encirclement nearing completion, with Russian forces blocking Ukrainian troops in the northern and southern parts and nearly dividing the garrison.
- All roads under Russian fire control; the only way in and out is on foot.
- Significant strategic loss for Ukraine, as Velyka Novosilka is a major stronghold in southern Donetsk.
- Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops.
- Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
- The distance between advancing Russian units is reported to be between 2.2 and 3.7 km.
- Russian forces reportedly 2200 meters from complete encirclement.
- New video evidence of mass destruction of armored vehicles and enemy infantry.
- City in "semi-encirclement."
- Video evidence of Ukrainian 40th Separate Brigade engaging Russian targets with drones.
- Russian forces from 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade assaulted an enemy stronghold.
- Russian forces squeezing remnants of the 110th Mechanized Brigade trapped between rivers.
- Ukrainian positions destroyed due to intensified shelling.
- Fighting on the outskirts; assault continues.
- Ukrainian forces using drones for defense; no reports of mass retreat.
- Russian forces within 1.5 km of encircling Velyka Novosilka.
- Ukrainian forces attempting to prevent encirclement by avoiding urban combat and focusing on positions north and south of Novy Komar.
- Video evidence of Russian 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade using FPV drones to target Ukrainian artillery near Sukhyi Yaly River.
- Russian forces continuing their offensive, establishing positions on the northeastern and southeastern parts.
- Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using mortars, "Baba Yaga" drones, and tanks to destroy Russian forces and equipment.
- Video evidence of Russian snipers conducting a night hunt.
- Russian 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade destroying a Ukrainian BMP north of Velyka Novosilka.
- Clashes reported near Vremivka, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka.
- Video of fighters evacuating civilians from Vremivka.
- Video evidence of a Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian BMP north of Velyka Novosilka.
- Report of Russian forces organizing an evacuation of Ukrainian forces from Velyka Novosilka, prioritizing the 1st Presidential Brigade of the National Guard.
- "Colonelcassad" reports that there will be good news from Velyka Novosilka tonight.
- Report from "Воин DV" states that Velyka Novosilka is divided in two, with Ukrainian forces in the southern part completely surrounded and unable to retreat north. Russian forces control the right-bank part of the city and are advancing towards the center. Over 150 Ukrainian soldiers from the 110th Mechanized Brigade have been killed. Remnants of the 110th Brigade south of the Shaitanka River are effectively trapped, with the only escape route being on foot via Azovskaya Street towards Blagodatnoye.
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Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces advancing, reportedly reaching outskirts, less than 10 km from the city.
- Heavy fighting; reports of a motorized rifle attack on Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
- Fighting in areas of Shevchenko, Udachne, Baranivka, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Uspenivka, Slovyanka, and Petropavlivka.
- Assault troops captured a ventilation shaft of a mine west of Kotlyne.
- Fighting in Zverevo.
- Russian forces reportedly forcibly evacuating children from Pokrovsk.
- Russian forces advanced 3.6 km west of Volkovo and north of Solenoye.
- Heavy fighting in Udachnoye.
- Russian forces clearing positions on the opposite bank of the river following the liberation of Baranovka.
- Fighting continues west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye.
- Russian forces liberated Baranovka.
- Russian forces within 5-7 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Russian DRGs operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka.
- Video evidence of Russian 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions.
- Ukrainian forces attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west.
- 28 clashes initiated by Russian forces, Ukrainian forces repelling attacks.
- Ukrainian losses: 335 military personnel, three vehicles destroyed, one UAV antenna.
- Reports of "Metinvest" potentially ceasing operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine.
- Photo message of "liberated" Pokrovsk.
- Video of missile trails; Russian forces conducting powerful strikes while advancing and encircling the city.
- Success of Russian troops in Kotlyno and Udachny.
- Loss of control over mine No. 2 of the Pokrovskoe ShU.
- Russian drone destroyed a Ukrainian M113 APC.
- Ukrainian losses reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded.
- Speaker of "Khortytsia" denies Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement.
- Russian 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaged Ukrainian positions, including destruction of a German Leopard tank.
- 16 Ukrainian soldiers from 151st Mechanized Brigade captured.
- Retreating Ukrainian forces blew up Belitskaya mine.
- Situation north of Ivanivka deteriorating.
- Fighting for Baranovka beginning.
- Russian forces continue to drive out Ukrainian forces from several settlements.
- Ukrainian command abandoned Pokrovsk.
- Russian forces cut the penultimate railway line to Pokrovsk.
- Ukrainian forces making efforts to prevent loss, but speaker denies encirclement threat.
- City hospital being relocated to Kryvyi Rih.
- Russian MoD claims to have defeated Ukrainian HIMARS in Krasnoarmeysk direction.
- "Гром" eliminates the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Pokrovsk.
- Tank crews of the "Гром" battalion destroying enemy defenses.
- Russian forces have reportedly begun fighting in Zverevo.
- West of Volkovo and north of Solenoye, Russian forces have reportedly advanced 3.6 km, encompassing the entire "pocket."
- Heavy fighting is reported in Udachnoye.
- Following the liberation of Baranovka, Russian forces are clearing positions on the opposite high bank of the river, from where the enemy had controlled the village.
- Fighting continues west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye.
- Russian forces have liberated Baranovka.
- According to "Военкор Котенок", the situation in the Kotlyno-Udachnoye area has changed. Ukrainian attempts to repel Russian attacks near Udachnoye have failed. Russian forces are advancing in the southern part of Udachnoye, fighting for the station, and approaching the center in the north. South of the village, fighting is taking place near Tsarskoye Stavok, Dolgoprudnaya Balka, and the eastern part of Novosergievka. In the Dimitrov (Kotlyno) area, Russian forces have captured a ventilation shaft and nearby landings. Cleanup operations are ongoing to the north, towards Sergeevka. Russian drones are operating not only in the landings but also in Sergeevka itself. There are also reports of advances towards Grishino.
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Chasiv Yar:
- Heavy fighting; Russian forces seizing initiative, pushing Ukrainian troops back.
- Russian forces captured about half of the city, including Novyi district, fighting in Severnyi district.
- Tank crews of 63rd Brigade attacked Russian positions in Serebryansky forest.
- Russian forces report advances in northern part and battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant.
- "Colonelcassad" shows fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant; progress in nearby forest.
- 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" shows destruction of Russian forces north of Vesele.
- "Дневник Десантника" reports control zone expansion to Belohorivka; fighting on outskirts.
- Advances northwest of Ivanivka towards Kolodyazne.
- Cauldron forming; advances in urban area and south, east of Stupochki.
- Clashes with no significant changes.
- Fighting shifted to "Novoseverny" microdistrict after liberation of Refractory Plant.
- Heavy fighting for residential areas to the south.
- Video evidence of Russian forces advancing, dislodging enemy.
- 200th Brigade pushing enemy out of "Десятый" microdistrict, liberating "Новосеверный" microdistrict.
- Airborne troops pushing out enemy forces west of 3rd workshop of refractory plant.
- Video of fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant; progress in forest.
- Ukrainian soldiers trapped in "fire pocket" near refractory plant.
- Russian forces control about 20% of refractory plant territory.
- Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. The basements and workshops of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar have been completely cleared.
- A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant.
- Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
- Tactical successes are reported, with the 200th Brigade pushing the enemy out of the "Десятый" microdistrict and currently liberating the "Новосеверный" microdistrict.
- Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
- Video evidence shows the 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard targeting Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar.
- In the Chasiv Yar direction, after clearing the workshops of the refractory plant, battles have shifted to the area west of Workshop No. 1 of the Chasov Yar Refractory Plant. Russian forces have launched an offensive south of the railway station, expanding their control after artillery shelling near Dniprovsky Pond.
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Kurakhove:
- Fierce battles near several settlements; 14 enemy attacks repelled.
- Active combat operations near Kurakhove.
- Video evidence of destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne.
- Fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka.
- Video evidence of Russian forces targeting communication relays and antennas with FPV drones.
- Positional fighting in Kurakhove - Dachne area.
- Russian assault units captured new positions north of Kurakhove sludge dumps.
- Russian forces leveling front line on Petropavlovka-Shevchenko section.
- Fighting for Dachnoye to the southwest.
- Battles along forest belts north and northeast of Sukhoi Yaly.
- Most of Kurakhove captured; fighting for strongholds near Hryshyno.
- Russian forces targeting communication relays and antennas.
- Successful strike on Ukrainian armored vehicle south of Dachne.
- Ukrainian forces stormed a Russian position, captured soldiers.
- Active combat operations near Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
- Russian forces advancing up to 700 meters on the northern flank.
- Video evidence of FPV drones with fiber optics destroying a Leopard tank and a stronghold.
- Video evidence of Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne.
- Liquidation of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces using FPV drones equipped with fiber optics to destroy a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones. This action is described as a priority for disrupting Ukrainian communications.
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Toretsk:
- Clashes near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
- Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed; less than 15% of city under control.
- Russian forces entered Petrivka, pushing out Ukrainian troops.
- 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka; 3 ongoing.
- Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except "Toreskaya" mine.
- Video evidence of a sniper pair killing two Russian infantrymen.
- Video of a Ukrainian sniper team killing two Russian soldiers.
- Russian forces advanced 300 meters, taking control of Toretska mine.
- In Petrivka, advanced 600 meters.
- Video evidence of "protective blankets" being ineffective against drones.
- Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.
- Video evidence shows that "protective blankets" used by Ukrainian forces are ineffective against Russian drones.
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Dzerzhinsk:
- Russian forces reportedly captured most of the mining complex and part of Krymske.
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Kramatorsk:
- Russian forces using "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
- Casualties increased to eight, including two children.
- Powerful explosion in industrial zone.
- City partially without power, potentially affecting water supply.
- Clashes near Chasiv Yar and Fedorivka.
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Zverevo:
- Fighting continues, Russian forces pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.
- Ukrainian defenses built around mine waste heaps.
- Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs.
- Fighting in landings near city dump to the northwest.
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Donetsk:
- Russian forces shelled Donetsk region 23 times, using 69 munitions.
- Explosions in Kirovsky district, at least ten counted.
- Loud drone sound reported.
- Explosion in Lidiivka, windows blown out.
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Other:
- Russian forces report advances in Dmytriv, Urozhaine, Novosergiyivka, Slovyanka, and Yasenove.
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Zaporizhzhia Region:
- Infrastructure damage in Ukrainian-controlled areas.
- Two wounded from Russian attack.
- Ukrainian forces shelling Tokmak with MLRS.
- Air raid alert declared.
- Ukrainian forces strengthening positions with foreign mercenaries and equipment.
- Russian pilots struck at enemy positions near Temirovka.
- Enemy hit court building in Vasilyevka.
- 434 strikes on 9 settlements overnight; six airstrikes on Novoandriivka and Novodanylivka.
- 264 UAV attacks on various settlements.
- 10 MLRS attacks and 154 artillery strikes.
- 10 reports of damage to residential buildings and infrastructure; no civilian casualties.
- F-16s spotted flying in Zaporizhzhia direction, likely training flights.
- Clashes near Kamyanske.
- Video evidence of Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian positions and equipment.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian positions and equipment on the Zaporizhzhia front. A generator and a suspected Javelin anti-tank missile system were among the targets destroyed.
- An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region.
- Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
- The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.
- In Zaporizhzhia, the number of victims from the night attack has increased to 45.
Kursk Region
Kharkiv Region
- Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne. On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
- Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. The new report details that in Sumy, Russian troops struck a Ukrainian deployment site, killing 18 and wounding 30.
- Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region
