Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 23, 2025, 02:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have captured several key locations, severely hampering Ukrainian logistics and defenses. The capture of Vremivka is a significant development, effectively cutting off Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka and creating a cauldron. A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses, while Russian forces have regained territory and are advancing in the Sudzha area. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Ivanovka and advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion, with Russian forces blocking Ukrainian troops in the northern and southern parts of the city and nearly dividing the garrison in two. All roads are reportedly under Russian fire control. This marks a significant strategic loss for Ukraine, as Velyka Novosilka is a major stronghold in southern Donetsk. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city. Heavy fighting continues, with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
• Chasiv Yar: Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces reportedly seizing the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back. Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area. Video evidence shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar.
• Kurakhove: Fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Active combat operations are reported near Kurakhove.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberating several settlements. A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
• Drone Warfare: Extensive drone activity is reported, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance and attacks. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
• Other: Russian forces have established a flag on the southern outskirts of Nikolaevo-Daryino and have knocked Ukrainian forces out of the western approaches of Malaya Loknya. Commissions are beginning work to assess the destruction in the border area of the Kursk region. About 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region while fighting against Ukraine.

Kharkiv Region

• Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, reported a threat of enemy drone attacks across the Kharkiv region, with reports of explosions and air defense activity.
• Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Luhansk Region

• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy. New drone threats are also reported for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Reports of explosions in Ryazan and Kazan, Russia, due to drone attacks and air defense activity. Video evidence shows operators of FPV drones of the Russian Armed Forces attacking enemy shelters on the Kherson direction.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare.
• Smolensk Under Attack: Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported. Preliminary reports indicate the target is the Yartsevo oil refinery.
• New Drone Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in the Dnipropetrovsk region heading towards Zaporizhzhia.

Geopolitical Developments

• US-Russia Relations: Newly elected US President Donald Trump stated he will impose additional sanctions on Russia if Putin does not agree to peace talks. He also called on Chinese leader Xi Jinping to help end the war in Ukraine and confirmed his intention to speak with Putin soon.
• Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: US President-elect Donald Trump has reportedly instructed to organize a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin after the inauguration. Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
• Shifting European Approach to Ukraine: Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gaspar stated that Europe's approach to the Ukrainian issue is changing and that the coming weeks will be decisive. Gaspar accused NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of using Russia as a scare tactic for Europeans.
• New Sanctions Against Russia: The new US president, Donald Trump, has allowed for new sanctions against Russia if Putin refuses to negotiate. He also called on Xi Jinping to help end the war, stating, "He hasn't done much for this. He has a lot... of power, just like we have a lot of power. I said, 'You have to solve this.' We discussed it." When asked about further military aid to Ukraine, Trump said he would consider this issue and stressed that the EU should increase its contribution to the level of the US.
• The US National Security Council has reportedly sent home dozens of officials responsible for Ukraine, Iran, and North Korea, suspending them from their duties, according to the Washington Post.
• Ukrainian authorities expect the fighting to end this year, according to an interview with the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine, Yulia Svyrydenko, on the Polish radio station RMF FM.
• Donald Trump is preparing to send 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico border, according to The Washington Post.

Changes from Previous Situation

• New drone activity is reported, with drones on Chernihiv region heading towards Poltava, drones on Poltava heading south, and drones on Sumy heading south.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern front and a threat of the use of air weapons.
• Air raid alerts have been declared in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia.
• A new video from Colonelcassad alleges corruption within the Ukrainian military, specifically accusing the head of the personnel department of the Odessa regional TCC, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Ripak, and his subordinate, Major Biryuk, of stealing money using the bank cards and mobile phones of deceased soldiers. The video includes screenshots of alleged conversations and documents related to these accusations. This could further damage the already low morale among Ukrainian troops and potentially impact recruitment efforts.
• An explosion was heard in Zaporizhzhia.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains dynamic and challenging for Ukrainian forces. The continued Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, coupled with the ongoing drone warfare and geopolitical tensions, suggest that the conflict is far from over. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict, with both sides likely to adapt their strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is a major setback for Ukraine and could have significant implications for the future of the conflict in the Donetsk region. The new reports of drone movements towards Poltava and Sumy regions indicate a potential escalation in drone attacks, requiring increased vigilance and air defense readiness. The new report of a drone over Zaporizhzhia further emphasizes the immediate threat to the city and the need for heightened air defense measures. The new geopolitical developments, particularly the actions taken by the US National Security Council and the statement from Ukrainian authorities about ending the fighting this year, add further complexity to the situation and could potentially impact the future course of the conflict. The report of North Korean casualties in the Kursk region highlights the international dimension of the conflict and the potential for further escalation. The new geopolitical developments involving Trump's actions regarding the Houthis and the US-Mexico border, as well as his statement about Biden, add further complexity to the situation and could potentially impact the future course of the conflict in Ukraine. The latest announcement regarding Trump's plan to deploy 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico border further underscores the potential shift in US priorities and resources, which could have significant implications for Ukraine. The reduction in Japan-Russia trade turnover adds another layer to the economic and geopolitical pressures on Russia, potentially affecting its ability to sustain the conflict in Ukraine. The new reports of drone movements in Sumy and Chernihiv regions, as well as the south of Sumy region, indicate a continued and widespread drone threat across multiple regions, requiring ongoing vigilance and air defense readiness. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts underscore the ongoing danger and the need for constant monitoring. The new allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military could further damage morale and potentially impact recruitment efforts. The explosion in Zaporizhzhia highlights the continued threat to the city and the need for heightened security measures.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
2. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions.
3. Secure Velyka Novosilka: Urgently reinforce Velyka Novosilka and attempt to break the encirclement. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to the area. Focus on securing the remaining supply routes and preventing further Russian advances. Conduct counterattacks to push back Russian forces and regain control of lost territory.
4. Monitor Drone Activity: Continuously monitor and track drone movements, particularly in the Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy regions. Deploy air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the drone threat.
5. Strengthen Air Defenses in Zaporizhzhia: Given the recent drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia, deploy additional air defense systems to the city and surrounding areas to intercept incoming drones and protect critical infrastructure.
6. Utilize Western Aid: Maximize the use of the recently announced 35 billion euro financial aid package from the EU to procure necessary military equipment, including air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and ammunition.
7. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry and air defense systems to counter Russian advances and drone attacks.
8. Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
9. Adapt and Innovate: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. Utilize innovative technologies, such as the new DJI Matrice 4T drone, to enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities.
10. Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the geopolitical tensions, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry and securing long-term military and financial aid from international partners.
11. Address Potential Escalation: Be prepared for potential escalation in drone attacks, particularly in the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions. Strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to counter these threats.
12. Defend Nikopol: Given the reports of drones near Nikopol, strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to the area to protect against potential attacks.
13. Monitor Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
14. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the potential shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding aid to Ukraine. Engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support.
15. Address Potential Impact of US Border Closure: Analyze the potential impact of the US border closure on Ukraine's situation, particularly regarding the availability of US military aid and resources. Develop contingency plans to address any potential negative consequences.
16. Monitor Hurivka: Given the new report of a drone flying through Hurivka, deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to the area to detect and intercept incoming drones.
17. Monitor Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
18. Counter Russian Advances in Pokrovsk Direction: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter Russian advances in Zverevo, towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka.
19. Investigate Allegations of Corruption: Conduct a thorough and transparent investigation into the allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military, as reported by Colonelcassad. Take appropriate action against any individuals found guilty of such crimes. This is crucial to maintain morale and public trust in the military.
20. Secure Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia: Given the air raid alerts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, reinforce air defenses in these cities and ensure that early warning systems are functioning properly. Prepare for potential attacks and ensure that civilian populations are aware of safety protocols.
21. Address Potential Threat from Tactical Aviation: Given the reported activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern front, deploy additional air defense systems and fighter jets to counter this threat. Monitor airspace closely and be prepared to intercept any hostile aircraft.