Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 23, 2025, 01:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces continuing their offensive momentum across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly in Velyka Novosilka, where they have effectively encircled the remaining Ukrainian forces. The situation for Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka is described as worse than in Vuhledar, where the garrison was able to retreat. In Pokrovsk, Russian forces are advancing from multiple directions, with reports indicating they are less than 10 kilometers from the city. Heavy fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces making progress in the northern part of the city and engaging in battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant. The Kursk region sees a stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive and continued Russian operations to neutralize Ukrainian incursions. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and new technologies being employed. Ukrainian air defenses are active, with reports of drones being shot down in various regions.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle Velyka Novosilka, establishing positions in the city's northeast and southeast.
  • Ukrainian military sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.
  • The last road supplying the city is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka, forming a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.
  • The situation for the Ukrainian forces is described as extremely difficult, with Russian forces closing in from three directions.
  • Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • Russian forces have reportedly occupied the northeastern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka.
  • Clashes continue in other areas around Velyka Novosilka, with Ukrainian forces facing an increasingly difficult situation due to supply issues.
  • The only remaining supply route is a dirt road from the direction of Novoocheretuvate, which is under constant attack.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
  • Russian forces are continuing their offensive to liberate Velyka Novosilka, having established positions on the northeastern and southeastern parts of the city.
  • The enemy is fleeing Velyka Novosilka and that strikes are being carried out on the crossing with personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The cleanup of the neighborhoods is currently underway.
  • Russian forces have blocked Ukrainian forces in the northern and southern parts of Velyka Novosilka without escape routes. The "Vostok" group is reportedly using all available means to attack the blocked enemy.
  • The garrison in Velyka Novosilka is almost divided in two. Russian forces have reached the Ukrainian street from Pervomaiskaya street and are fighting between Shkolnaya and Gagarina streets. Russian forces hold positions along the banks of the Mokrye Yaly and Kashlagach rivers. The escape route for Ukrainian forces is not physically blocked but is under fire control and limited by the Mokrye Yaly river. Artillery fire and enemy drones are hindering the advance.
  • The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion. All roads are reportedly under Russian fire control. This marks a significant strategic loss for Ukraine, as Velyka Novosilka is a major stronghold in southern Donetsk.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in Velyka Novosilka. Another video shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian armored vehicle in the area.
  • Video evidence shows the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group destroying a Ukrainian BMP north of Velyka Novosilka. The BMP was reportedly carrying ammunition.
  • Part of the Ukrainian forces defending Velyka Novosilka is effectively in operational encirclement. The situation for the Ukrainian forces is developing even worse than it was in Vuhledar, where the garrison managed to retreat from the city through the landings near the northern outskirts.

• Pokrovsk Direction:

  • Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city.
  • "Otvazhnye" forces are reportedly continuing their offensive towards Pokrovsk, destroying NATO equipment and Ukrainian infantry.
  • Russian forces are engaged in active combat operations near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk), with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line. Russian forces reportedly advanced more than 1.5 km north of Novoelizavetovka on the southern flank of Krasnoarmiisk.
  • Russian forces have reportedly advanced in Zverevo and towards the western outskirts of Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi). Fighting continues in Udachne and near Dmytrovo (Kotlyne), with Ukrainian counterattacks repelled. Russian forces are also advancing towards Novosergievka and have made progress in Lysivka. Russian forces have also attacked in the direction of Sukhyi Yar, Promin, Myrolyubivka, near Yelyzavetivka, and north of Hrodivka. Fighting continues near Baranivka and Zelene Pole.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces reportedly seizing the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back.
  • South of the Novyi microdistrict in the forest area on the territory of the Mir and Bunker children's camp, Russian forces dislodged the enemy from the buildings and eliminated an enemy group.
  • Russian forces cleared the forest area and advanced another 800 meters.
  • Near the Dniprovskyi pond in Chasov Yar, Russian artillerymen from the "Grad" MLRS engaged enemy positions.
  • Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. They are also making progress in a nearby forest.
  • Reports of Russian forces making significant advances in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and engaging in battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant.
  • Russian forces have reportedly advanced 500 meters in the center of Chasiv Yar.

• Kurakhove:

  • On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Clashes were reported near Vremivka, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka.
  • A new video shows fighters from Yakutia with the callsigns Amga and Gorets, who evacuated civilians from Vremivka under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • Active combat operations are reported near Kurakhove.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberating several settlements.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
• Other:
  • A report from the Russian Ministry of Defense states that Russian forces repelled an attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region.
  • The Russian Armed Forces are continuing an operation to neutralize an enemy group that broke into the territory of the Kursk region.
  • The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements.
  • Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery strikes engaged AFU manpower and hardware near several settlements.
  • Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
  • Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
  • The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
  • Russian forces have established a flag on the southern outskirts of Nikolaevo-Daryino and have knocked Ukrainian forces out of the western approaches of Malaya Loknya.
• Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region. Another video shows a Ukrainian tank destroyed by a Russian drone in the region.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense shows electronic warfare specialists of a separate motorized infantry brigade of the "Sever" group detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs in the Kursk region border area.
• "WarGonzo" shows a special report on a Russian armored group called "Pressa" operating in the region.
• About 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region while fighting against Ukraine, according to Western officials cited by the BBC. As of mid-January, North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region reportedly suffered around 4,000 casualties, including both killed and wounded.

Kharkiv Region

• Explosions in Kharkiv:
  • Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.
  • A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
  • The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, reported a threat of enemy drone attacks across the Kharkiv region, with reports of explosions and air defense activity. Two police officers were injured in Osinovo due to a drone attack.
  • Debris from a Russian Shahed drone was found in the Kholodnohirskyi district of Kharkiv. Another strike was recorded outside the city.
  • An explosion was heard in Kharkiv.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Luhansk Region

• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity:
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones: in the southern part of the Kharkiv region, with a north-westerly course. They also report the movement of attack drones in Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • A new group of attack drones is reported in the south of the Sumy region, with a south-westerly course.
  • One drone is reported flying near Balovnoe, one is flying near Bereznegovatoe, two are flying near Krivoy Rog, one is flying near Pereyaslav, and one is flying north of Kupyansk.
  • New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug.
  • One drone is flying south of Voznesensk towards the north of the Odessa region. Five drones are circling near Yelanets, moving towards the Voznesensky district. One drone is west of Zaporizhzhia, moving west. One drone is flying through Pavlograd towards the south. Four drones are circling near Kharkiv, with reports of anti-aircraft activity. Two drones are near Okhtyrka, moving towards the Poltava region. One drone is north of the Chernihiv region, moving southwest.
  • One drone is reported to be flying through Hurivka.
  • One drone is reported to be circling at the intersection of the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions, currently heading towards the Voznesensky district.
  • One drone is reported in the south of the Kirovohrad region, heading west towards the Pervomaisky district.
  • One drone is reported in the north of the Mykolaiv region, heading west.
  • Video evidence shows operators of FPV drones of the Russian Armed Forces attacking enemy shelters on the Kherson direction.
  • Video evidence from the "Воин DV" Telegram channel shows fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade annihilating a Ukrainian M113A2 armored personnel carrier near Dvurichna using an FPV drone, a "Lancet" loitering munition, and a precision drop.
  • Video evidence shows that effective strikes of the "Viking" detachment were carried out on an 82mm mortar position. The crew was hiding in a garage in hopes of surviving but were unsuccessful due to a fire and ammunition detonation.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare.
• Smolensk Under Attack:
  • Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported.
  • Preliminary reports indicate the target is the Yartsevo oil refinery.
  • Russian air defenses are reportedly active.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that over the past day, air defense systems intercepted 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in various regions, including LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that air defense forces shot down three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the Black Sea off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the strike on the oil depot in the Voronezh region and the aircraft factory in the Smolensk region.
• The first 3,000 "Mikrob" kamikaze drones with artificial intelligence, allowing autonomous target tracking after operator acquisition, have been delivered to the special military operation zone in Ukraine. The drone is said to have sufficient dynamic characteristics, including high speed and maneuverability. According to reports from the Ministry of Defense, one unit using 40 drones destroyed enemy equipment worth more than the cost of all 3,000 drones produced.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to destroy a Russian "TOR-M2" air defense system in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Ukrainian forces report a successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system using an FPV drone.
• DJI has released a new drone, the DJI Matrice 4T, which features two advanced cameras with improved detail and a new thermal imager. It also includes a laser rangefinder for precise distance measurement and AI technology for easier detection of vehicles and people.
• Three drones are flying over Pervomaisk towards the north of the Odesa region.
• One drone flew through Pavlograd towards the south.
• One drone is circling near Kharkiv, and there are reports of anti-aircraft activity.
• Two drones are near Okhtyrka, moving towards the Poltava region.
• One drone is north of the Chernihiv region, heading southwest.
• Six new drones have been reported in the Zaporizhzhia area, 3 of which are flying towards the city.
• As a result of a Russian attack in one of the districts of Zaporizhzhia, a fire broke out. There were no casualties.
• All previous drones have been eliminated. A new drone is approaching Zaporizhzhia.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in the Dnipropetrovsk region heading towards Zaporizhzhia.
• Two new drones are flying towards Zaporizhzhia.
• There are reports of two drones flying towards Nikopol from Energodar.
• One drone was detected over Zaporizhzhia.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian FPV drones targeting a Russian assault group of 5 infantrymen.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian "Orlan-10" drone at its launch point.
• A drone is reported on the west of Kharkiv region heading towards Poltava region. Another drone is reported on the east of Mykolaiv region heading west. A third drone is reported on the south of Kirovohrad region heading south.
• All previously reported drones have been eliminated, and there is a confirmation of "all clear" for drone activity.
• A new group of attack drones is reported on the Sumy region with a course on the Chernihiv region.
• A new group of attack drones is reported on the south of the Sumy region with a course to the west.
• A new group of attack drones is reported on the Chernihiv region with a course to the southwest.

Geopolitical Developments

• Trump signed a decree to close the southern border of the United States to migrants. The document also restricts the right of these individuals to remain in the country under the pretext of seeking asylum.
• The deportation of illegal immigrants from the US may affect several thousand Poles, according to the Deputy Head of the Polish Foreign Ministry, Vladislav Theofil Bartoshevsky.
• The US National Security Council has reportedly sent home dozens of officials responsible for Ukraine, Iran, and North Korea, suspending them from their duties, according to the Washington Post. The officials were told to "immediately leave the building, go home, and be in touch." The White House administration has begun checking about 160 employees in the National Security Council for loyalty to Trump, according to Axios.
• Ukrainian authorities expect the fighting to end this year, according to an interview with the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine, Yulia Svyrydenko, on the Polish radio station RMF FM.
• Donald Trump has signed a decree initiating the process of recognizing the Yemeni Houthi movement "Ansar Allah" as a terrorist organization, according to the White House press service.
• The US will deploy an additional 1,500 troops, helicopters, and military intelligence units to the US-Mexico border, according to the Pentagon.
• Trump called Biden's decision not to pardon himself "sad." "He gave pardons to everyone. But the funniest thing, or maybe the saddest thing, is that he didn't pardon himself. But if you look closely, it's all connected to him," said the US President.
• Donald Trump is preparing to send 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico border, according to The Washington Post.
• The Trade turnover between Japan and Russia in 2024 decreased by 21.8%, according to calculations based on statistics published by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Imports of LNG from Russia decreased by 7.3%, coal by 64.7%, grain supplies by 55.2%, and vegetables by 21.9%.
• President Zelensky stated that communication with Trump should be a priority and that work is being done on this.

Changes from Previous Situation

• The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion, with Russian forces blocking Ukrainian troops in the northern and southern parts of the city and nearly dividing the garrison in two. This is a critical development, as Velyka Novosilka is a major Ukrainian stronghold in the south of Donetsk.
• In Pokrovsk, Russian forces are closing in, while in Chasiv Yar, they continue to advance, clearing significant areas and pushing Ukrainian forces back. The capture of Solenoye and the ongoing battles for Udachnoye and Kotlino further complicate the situation for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region.
• The new reports of Russian advances near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) and in the center of Chasiv Yar indicate that the situation in these areas is rapidly deteriorating for Ukrainian forces.
• The new reports of Russian advances in Zverevo, towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka, as well as the attacks near Sukhyi Yar, Promin, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Hrodivka, further demonstrate the increasing pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk direction. The continued fighting near Baranivka and Zelene Pole indicates that the frontline in this area remains active and contested.
• In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces are conducting successful operations to repel Ukrainian incursions.
• The reported use of the new AI-equipped "Mikrob" drone by Russian forces adds a new dimension to the conflict, potentially enhancing their reconnaissance and strike capabilities.
• Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• The Ukrainian Air Force continues to report the movement of attack drones across various regions, indicating an ongoing threat.
• The reported successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system by Ukrainian forces demonstrates their continued ability to target and destroy Russian military assets.
• The new reports of drone movements, particularly in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions, highlight the persistent threat posed by drone warfare. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts underscore the ongoing danger and the need for constant vigilance.
• The introduction of the new DJI Matrice 4T drone, with its advanced capabilities, could potentially enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities for both sides, further intensifying the technological aspect of the conflict.
• The new reports of drones moving towards Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions indicate a potential escalation in drone attacks, requiring increased vigilance and air defense readiness.
• The new reports of fires in Zaporizhzhia due to Russian attacks and the movement of drones towards the city underscore the immediate threat faced by these areas. The reports of drones near Nikopol also highlight the ongoing danger to this region.
• The new report of a drone over Zaporizhzhia indicates an ongoing threat to the city.
• The new reports of drones on the west of the Kharkiv region, the east of the Mykolaiv region, and the south of the Kirovohrad region indicate an ongoing and widespread threat.
• The new report of a drone flying through Hurivka adds to the list of areas under threat from drone activity.
• The new reports of drones circling at the intersection of the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions, as well as in the south and north of the Kirovohrad and Mykolaiv regions, respectively, indicate a continued and widespread drone threat across multiple regions.
• Geopolitically, the situation remains tense. Trump's recent signing of a decree to close the US southern border to migrants and restrict their right to seek asylum adds a new dimension to the geopolitical landscape. This move could potentially impact the US's ability to provide aid to Ukraine and may have implications for other countries, as indicated by the statement from the Deputy Head of the Polish Foreign Ministry regarding the potential deportation of thousands of Poles from the US.
• The new report that the US National Security Council has sent home dozens of officials responsible for Ukraine, Iran, and North Korea, and that the White House is checking about 160 employees for loyalty to Trump, suggests a significant shift in US policy and potential internal turmoil.
• The new statement from Ukrainian authorities expressing their expectation that the fighting will end this year adds a new layer to the geopolitical situation, although it remains to be seen whether this is a realistic assessment or a political statement.
• The confirmation of "all clear" for drone activity is a significant development, indicating a temporary reduction in the immediate threat posed by drones. However, this does not necessarily mean that the threat has been completely eliminated, and vigilance is still required.
• The report of about 1,000 North Korean soldiers being killed in the Kursk region while fighting against Ukraine adds a new dimension to the conflict, highlighting the internationalization of the war and the involvement of foreign troops.
• Trump's signing of a decree to recognize the Yemeni Houthi movement as a terrorist organization and the deployment of additional US troops to the US-Mexico border are significant geopolitical developments that could potentially impact the situation in Ukraine, although the direct implications are not yet clear.
• Trump's statement about Biden not pardoning himself adds a new layer to the political situation in the US and could potentially have implications for the future of US-Ukraine relations.
• The announcement that Donald Trump is preparing to send 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico border is another significant geopolitical development. This further emphasizes the shift in US priorities under the Trump administration and could potentially impact the resources available for supporting Ukraine. The increased focus on border security may divert attention and resources away from international conflicts, potentially affecting the US's ability to provide military and financial aid to Ukraine.
• The decrease in trade turnover between Japan and Russia by 21.8% in 2024 is a notable economic development. The significant reductions in imports of LNG, coal, grain, and vegetables from Russia indicate a shift in Japan's trade policy, potentially influenced by geopolitical factors and sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine. This could have implications for Russia's economy and its ability to sustain the war effort.
• The new reports of drone movements in Sumy and Chernihiv regions indicate a continued threat from drone warfare, requiring ongoing vigilance and air defense readiness. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts underscore the ongoing danger and the need for constant monitoring.
• The video evidence showing the destruction of a mortar position by the "Viking" detachment adds to the list of successful strikes against Ukrainian forces. This highlights the continued effectiveness of Russian drone operations in targeting and eliminating enemy assets.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains dynamic and challenging for Ukrainian forces. The continued Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, coupled with the ongoing drone warfare and geopolitical tensions, suggest that the conflict is far from over. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict, with both sides likely to adapt their strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. The new reports of drone movements towards Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions indicate a potential escalation in drone attacks, requiring increased vigilance and air defense readiness. The new report of a drone over Zaporizhzhia further emphasizes the immediate threat to the city and the need for heightened air defense measures. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is a major setback for Ukraine and could have significant implications for the future of the conflict in the Donetsk region. The new reports of drones on the west of the Kharkiv region, the east of the Mykolaiv region, and the south of the Kirovohrad region indicate an ongoing and widespread threat, requiring continuous monitoring and air defense readiness. The new report of a drone flying through Hurivka highlights the need for increased surveillance and air defense in this area. The new reports of drone activity in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions underscore the need for heightened vigilance and air defense measures in these areas. The new geopolitical developments, particularly the actions taken by the US National Security Council and the statement from Ukrainian authorities about ending the fighting this year, add further complexity to the situation and could potentially impact the future course of the conflict. The confirmation of "all clear" for drone activity provides a temporary reprieve, but the situation remains tense and requires continuous monitoring. The report of North Korean casualties in the Kursk region highlights the international dimension of the conflict and the potential for further escalation. The new geopolitical developments involving Trump's actions regarding the Houthis and the US-Mexico border, as well as his statement about Biden, add further complexity to the situation and could potentially impact the future course of the conflict in Ukraine. The latest announcement regarding Trump's plan to deploy 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico border further underscores the potential shift in US priorities and resources, which could have significant implications for Ukraine. The reduction in Japan-Russia trade turnover adds another layer to the economic and geopolitical pressures on Russia, potentially affecting its ability to sustain the conflict in Ukraine. The new reports of drone movements in Sumy and Chernihiv regions, as well as the south of Sumy region, indicate a continued and widespread drone threat across multiple regions, requiring ongoing vigilance and air defense readiness. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts underscore the ongoing danger and the need for constant monitoring.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
2. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions.
3. Secure Velyka Novosilka: Urgently reinforce Velyka Novosilka and attempt to break the encirclement. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to the area. Focus on securing the remaining supply routes and preventing further Russian advances. Conduct counterattacks to push back Russian forces and regain control of lost territory.
4. Monitor Drone Activity: Continuously monitor and track drone movements, particularly in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. Deploy air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the drone threat.
5. Strengthen Air Defenses in Zaporizhzhia: Given the recent drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia, deploy additional air defense systems to the city and surrounding areas to intercept incoming drones and protect critical infrastructure.
6. Utilize Western Aid: Maximize the use of the recently announced 35 billion euro financial aid package from the EU to procure necessary military equipment, including air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and ammunition.
7. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry and air defense systems to counter Russian advances and drone attacks.
8. Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
9. Adapt and Innovate: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. Utilize innovative technologies, such as the new DJI Matrice 4T drone, to enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities.
10. Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the geopolitical tensions, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry and securing long-term military and financial aid from international partners.
11. Address Potential Escalation: Be prepared for potential escalation in drone attacks, particularly in the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions. Strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to counter these threats.
12. Defend Nikopol: Given the reports of drones near Nikopol, strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to the area to protect against potential attacks.
13. Monitor Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
14. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the potential shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding aid to Ukraine. Engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support.
15. Address Potential Impact of US Border Closure: Analyze the potential impact of the US border closure on Ukraine's situation, particularly regarding the availability of US military aid and resources. Develop contingency plans to address any potential negative consequences.
16. Monitor Hurivka: Given the new report of a drone flying through Hurivka, deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to the area to detect and intercept incoming drones.
17. Monitor Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad Regions: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
18. Counter Russian Advances in Pokrovsk Direction: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter Russian advances in Zverevo, towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka. Conduct counterattacks to disrupt Russian offensive operations and regain lost territory. Focus on defending key areas such as Udachne, Dmytrovo (Kotlyne), Baranivka, and Zelene Pole to prevent further Russian advances.
19. Utilize Drone Warfare: Increase the use of drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks on Russian forces. Focus on disrupting Russian supply lines, destroying enemy equipment, and targeting troop concentrations.
20. Enhance Electronic Warfare Capabilities: Deploy additional electronic warfare systems to counter Russian drones and protect Ukrainian forces from enemy attacks. Focus on jamming enemy communications and disrupting drone operations.
21. Secure Critical Infrastructure: Deploy additional security forces to protect critical infrastructure, such as power plants, water treatment facilities, and transportation hubs, from Russian attacks.
22. Coordinate with International Partners: Share intelligence and coordinate military operations with international partners to enhance the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces and counter Russian advances.
23. Prepare for Potential Evacuations: Develop contingency plans for the potential evacuation of civilians from areas under threat of Russian attack, particularly in the Donetsk region.
24. Strengthen Cyber Defenses: Enhance cyber defenses to protect critical infrastructure and military systems from Russian cyberattacks.
25. Maintain Reserve Forces: Maintain a strategic reserve of troops and equipment to respond to unexpected developments and reinforce areas under threat. 26