Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 22, 2025, 21:08 UTC

Major Updates

• Donetsk Region:
  • Velyka Novosilka: The situation in Velyka Novosilka has deteriorated significantly. The town is now reported as being nearly completely encircled, with all roads under Russian fire control. This development severely restricts Ukrainian supply lines and reinforcements. Ukrainian forces are attempting to avoid encirclement by focusing on positions north and south of Novy Komar.
  • Chasiv Yar: Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces making significant advances in the northern part of the city and engaging in battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city. Ukrainian losses in this direction are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded.
  • Kurakhove: Fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Active combat operations are reported near Kurakhove.
  • Zaporizhzhia: A fire broke out in one of the districts of Zaporizhzhia as a result of a Russian attack. There were no casualties. 5 "Shahed" drones were reportedly used in the attack. Russian forces launched 434 strikes on 9 settlements in the region overnight.
• Kursk Region:
  • Heavy fighting continues, with Ukrainian forces launching constant counterattacks. Despite this, Russian forces are advancing near Nikolaevo-Daryino. A North Korean soldier reportedly evicted two Russian women from their house in Makhnovka.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Zaporizhzhia was attacked by 5 "Shahed" drones, causing a fire in one of the districts.
  • One drone is reported over Zaporizhzhia.
  • Two drones are reported flying towards Nikopol from Energodar.
  • Two new drones are flying towards Zaporizhzhia.
  • Six new drones have been reported in the Zaporizhzhia area, 3 of which are flying towards the city.
  • Three drones are flying over Pervomaisk towards the north of the Odesa region.
  • One drone flew through Pavlograd towards the south.
  • One drone is circling near Kharkiv, and there are reports of anti-aircraft activity.
  • Two drones are near Okhtyrka, moving towards the Poltava region.
  • One drone is north of the Chernihiv region, heading southwest.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones: in the southern part of the Kharkiv region, with a north-westerly course. They also report the movement of attack drones in Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • A new group of attack drones is reported in the south of the Sumy region, with a south-westerly course.
  • One drone is reported flying near Balovnoe, one is flying near Bereznegovatoe, two are flying near Krivoy Rog, one is flying near Pereyaslav, and one is flying north of Kupyansk.
  • New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle Velyka Novosilka, establishing positions in the city's northeast and southeast.
  • Ukrainian military sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.
  • The last road supplying the city is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka, forming a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.
  • The situation for the Ukrainian forces is described as extremely difficult, with Russian forces closing in from three directions.
  • Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • Russian forces have reportedly occupied the northeastern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, according to Rybar.
  • Clashes continue in other areas around Velyka Novosilka, with Ukrainian forces facing an increasingly difficult situation due to supply issues.
  • The only remaining supply route is a dirt road from the direction of Novoocheretuvate, which is under constant attack.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
  • "Воин DV" reports that Russian forces are continuing their offensive to liberate Velyka Novosilka, having established positions on the northeastern and southeastern parts of the city.
  • "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that the enemy is fleeing Velyka Novosilka and that strikes are being carried out on the crossing with personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The message also states that the cleanup of the neighborhoods is currently underway.
  • "Воин DV" reports that Russian forces have blocked Ukrainian forces in the northern and southern parts of Velyka Novosilka without escape routes. The "Vostok" group is reportedly using all available means to attack the blocked enemy.
  • Voenkor Kotenok reports that the garrison in Velyka Novosilka is almost divided in two. Russian forces have reached the Ukrainian street from Pervomaiskaya street and are fighting between Shkolnaya and Gagarina streets. Russian forces hold positions along the banks of the Mokrye Yaly and Kashlagach rivers. The escape route for Ukrainian forces is not physically blocked but is under fire control and limited by the Mokrye Yaly river. Artillery fire and enemy drones are hindering the advance.
  • New: The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion, according to the DeepState resource. All roads are reportedly under Russian fire control. This marks a significant strategic loss for Ukraine, as Velyka Novosilka is a major stronghold in southern Donetsk. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in Velyka Novosilka. Another video shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian armored vehicle in the area.

• Pokrovsk Direction:

  • Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city.
  • "Otvazhnye" forces are reportedly continuing their offensive towards Pokrovsk, destroying NATO equipment and Ukrainian infantry.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces reportedly seizing the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back.
  • A message from "Дневник Десантника" reports that south of the Novyi microdistrict in the forest area on the territory of the Mir and Bunker children's camp, Russian forces dislodged the enemy from the buildings and eliminated an enemy group.
  • The message also reports that Russian forces cleared the forest area and advanced another 800 meters.
  • Near the Dniprovskyi pond in Chasov Yar, Russian artillerymen from the "Grad" MLRS engaged enemy positions.
  • Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area.
  • New: Video evidence shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. They are also making progress in a nearby forest. Reports of Russian forces making significant advances in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and engaging in battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant.

• Kurakhove:

  • On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Clashes were reported near Vremivka, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka.
  • A new video shows fighters from Yakutia with the callsigns Amga and Gorets, who evacuated civilians from Vremivka under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • New: Active combat operations are reported near Kurakhove.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberating several settlements.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
• Other:
  • A report from the Russian Ministry of Defense states that Russian forces repelled an attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region.
  • The Russian Armed Forces are continuing an operation to neutralize an enemy group that broke into the territory of the Kursk region.
  • The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements.
  • Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery strikes engaged AFU manpower and hardware near several settlements.
  • Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
  • Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
  • The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
  • Russian forces have established a flag on the southern outskirts of Nikolaevo-Daryino and have knocked Ukrainian forces out of the western approaches of Malaya Loknya.
• New: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region. Another video shows a Ukrainian tank destroyed by a Russian drone in the region. The Russian Ministry of Defense shows electronic warfare specialists of a separate motorized infantry brigade of the "Sever" group detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs in the Kursk region border area. "WarGonzo" shows a special report on a Russian armored group called "Pressa" operating in the region.

Kharkiv Region

• Explosions in Kharkiv:
  • Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.
  • A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
  • The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, reported a threat of enemy drone attacks across the Kharkiv region, with reports of explosions and air defense activity. Two police officers were injured in Osinovo due to a drone attack.
  • Debris from a Russian Shahed drone was found in the Kholodnohirskyi district of Kharkiv. Another strike was recorded outside the city.
  • An explosion was heard in Kharkiv.
  • New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Luhansk Region

• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity:
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones: in the southern part of the Kharkiv region, with a north-westerly course. They also report the movement of attack drones in Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • A new group of attack drones is reported in the south of the Sumy region, with a south-westerly course.
  • One drone is reported flying near Balovnoe, one is flying near Bereznegovatoe, two are flying near Krivoy Rog, one is flying near Pereyaslav, and one is flying north of Kupyansk.
  • New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug.
  • One drone is flying south of Voznesensk towards the north of the Odessa region. Five drones are circling near Yelanets, moving towards the Voznesensky district. One drone is west of Zaporizhzhia, moving west. One drone is flying through Pavlograd towards the south. Four drones are circling near Kharkiv, with reports of anti-aircraft activity. Two drones are near Okhtyrka, moving towards the Poltava region. One drone is north of the Chernihiv region, moving southwest.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare.
• Smolensk Under Attack:
  • Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported.
  • Preliminary reports indicate the target is the Yartsevo oil refinery.
  • Russian air defenses are reportedly active.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that over the past day, air defense systems intercepted 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in various regions, including LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that air defense forces shot down three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the Black Sea off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the strike on the oil depot in the Voronezh region and the aircraft factory in the Smolensk region.
• New Drone: "Colonelcassad" reports that the first 3,000 "Mikrob" kamikaze drones with artificial intelligence, allowing autonomous target tracking after operator acquisition, have been delivered to the special military operation zone in Ukraine. The drone is said to have sufficient dynamic characteristics, including high speed and maneuverability. According to reports from the Ministry of Defense, one unit using 40 drones destroyed enemy equipment worth more than the cost of all 3,000 drones produced.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to destroy a Russian "TOR-M2" air defense system in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Ukrainian forces report a successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system using an FPV drone.
• DJI has released a new drone, the DJI Matrice 4T, which features two advanced cameras with improved detail and a new thermal imager. It also includes a laser rangefinder for precise distance measurement and AI technology for easier detection of vehicles and people.
• New: Three drones are flying over Pervomaisk towards the north of the Odesa region.
• New: One drone flew through Pavlograd towards the south.
• New: One drone is circling near Kharkiv, and there are reports of anti-aircraft activity.
• New: Two drones are near Okhtyrka, moving towards the Poltava region.
• New: One drone is north of the Chernihiv region, heading southwest.
• New: Six new drones have been reported in the Zaporizhzhia area, 3 of which are flying towards the city.
• New: As a result of a Russian attack in one of the districts of Zaporizhzhia, a fire broke out. There were no casualties.
• New: Two new drones are flying towards Zaporizhzhia.
• New: There are reports of two drones flying towards Nikopol from Energodar.
• New: One drone was detected over Zaporizhzhia.
• New: Five "Shahed" drones reportedly attacked Zaporizhzhia.
• New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian FPV drones targeting a Russian assault group of 5 infantrymen.
• New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian "Orlan-10" drone at its launch point.

Geopolitical Developments

• A TASS report states that Slovakia is threatened with destabilization by those who participated in similar events in Georgia, according to a representative of the Fico party.
• Trump threatened Putin with taxes, duties, and sanctions on all Russian goods if Moscow refuses to make peace in Ukraine, according to "Север.Реалии."
• CNN reports that Trump has begun his new term with unusually critical remarks towards Putin, stating that Putin is "destroying Russia" by not making a deal with Ukraine and warning that "Russia will face big problems." The White House reportedly believes that Russia may be running out of time and intends to take advantage of this.
• The Yemeni Houthis have released the crew of the seized ship Galaxy Leader, which was captured in 2023. The crew included citizens of Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Mexico, and the Philippines. The release is reportedly in support of the ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas.
• The "New People" party in Russia is preparing to introduce a bill on a unified digital document that will combine a passport, SNILS, and a work record book, according to the head of the faction, Alexei Nechaev.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly in Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion, with Russian forces blocking Ukrainian troops in the northern and southern parts of the city and nearly dividing the garrison in two. This is a critical development, as Velyka Novosilka is a major Ukrainian stronghold in the south of Donetsk. In Pokrovsk, Russian forces are closing in, while in Chasiv Yar, they continue to advance, clearing significant areas and pushing Ukrainian forces back. The capture of Solenoye and the ongoing battles for Udachnoye and Kotlino further complicate the situation for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces are conducting successful operations to repel Ukrainian incursions. The reported use of the new AI-equipped "Mikrob" drone by Russian forces adds a new dimension to the conflict, potentially enhancing their reconnaissance and strike capabilities.

Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Zaporizhzhia was attacked by 5 "Shahed" drones, causing a fire in one of the districts. The Ukrainian Air Force continues to report the movement of attack drones across various regions, indicating an ongoing threat. The reported successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system by Ukrainian forces demonstrates their continued ability to target and destroy Russian military assets. The new reports of drone movements, particularly in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions, highlight the persistent threat posed by drone warfare. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts underscore the ongoing danger and the need for constant vigilance. The introduction of the new DJI Matrice 4T drone, with its advanced capabilities, could potentially enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities for both sides, further intensifying the technological aspect of the conflict. The new reports of drones moving towards Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions indicate a potential escalation in drone attacks, requiring increased vigilance and air defense readiness. The new reports of fires in Zaporizhzhia due to Russian attacks and the movement of drones towards the city underscore the immediate threat faced by these areas. The reports of drones near Nikopol also highlight the ongoing danger to this region. The new report of a drone over Zaporizhzhia indicates an ongoing threat to the city.

Geopolitically, the situation remains tense, with new threats from Trump towards Russia if peace is not achieved. Trump's recent critical remarks towards Putin, as reported by CNN, mark a significant shift in rhetoric and could signal a change in US policy towards Russia. The reported release of the Galaxy Leader crew by the Yemeni Houthis adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics. The new bill in Russia on a unified digital document could have implications for data security and privacy.

Overall, the military situation in Ukraine remains dynamic and challenging for Ukrainian forces. The continued Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, coupled with the ongoing drone warfare and geopolitical tensions, suggest that the conflict is far from over. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict, with both sides likely to adapt their strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. The new reports of drone movements towards Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions indicate a potential escalation in drone attacks, requiring increased vigilance and air defense readiness. The new report of a drone over Zaporizhzhia further emphasizes the immediate threat to the city and the need for heightened air defense measures. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is a major setback for Ukraine and could have significant implications for the future of the conflict in the Donetsk region.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
2. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions.
3. Secure Velyka Novosilka: Urgently reinforce Velyka Novosilka and attempt to break the encirclement. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to the area. Focus on securing the remaining supply routes and preventing further Russian advances. Conduct counterattacks to push back Russian forces and regain control of lost territory.
4. Monitor Drone Activity: Continuously monitor and track drone movements, particularly in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. Deploy air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the drone threat.
5. Strengthen Air Defenses in Zaporizhzhia: Given the recent drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia, deploy additional air defense systems to the city and surrounding areas to intercept incoming drones and protect critical infrastructure.
6. Utilize Western Aid: Maximize the use of the recently announced 35 billion euro financial aid package from the EU to procure necessary military equipment, including air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and ammunition.
7. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry and air defense systems to counter Russian advances and drone attacks.
8. Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
9. Adapt and Innovate: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. Utilize innovative technologies, such as the new DJI Matrice 4T drone, to enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities.
10. Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the geopolitical tensions, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry and securing long-term military and financial aid from international partners.
11. Address Potential Escalation: Be prepared for potential escalation in drone attacks, particularly in the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions. Strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to counter these threats.
12. Defend Nikopol: Given the reports of drones near Nikopol, strengthen air defenses and deploy rapid response units to the area to protect against potential attacks.