Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 22, 2025, 19:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Velyka Novosilka, and Chasiv Yar.

• In Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces are within 1.5 km of completing the encirclement, with reports indicating they have blocked Ukrainian forces in the northern and southern parts of the city. The situation for Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka is described as extremely difficult. Russian forces are making significant advances, with the garrison almost divided in two. Ukrainian forces are attempting to retreat, but the route is under fire control.
• In Pokrovsk, Russian forces are reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city.
• Heavy fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces making significant advances, including clearing the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advancing another 800 meters.
• Russian forces have also made gains in the Luhansk region, capturing Ivanovka and Novoyehorivka, and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• In the Kursk region, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and capturing several settlements. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces repelled an attempted Ukrainian invasion in the Kursk region and are continuing an operation to neutralize an enemy group that broke into the territory.
• Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity, including attacks deep inside Russian territory, such as the ongoing drone assault on Smolensk. Reports indicate a new Russian drone, the "Mikrob," with AI capabilities has been deployed. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in several regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk. New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle Velyka Novosilka, establishing positions in the city's northeast and southeast.
  • Ukrainian military sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.
  • The last road supplying the city is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka, forming a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.
  • The situation for the Ukrainian forces is described as extremely difficult, with Russian forces closing in from three directions.
  • Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • Russian forces have reportedly occupied the northeastern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, according to Rybar.
  • Clashes continue in other areas around Velyka Novosilka, with Ukrainian forces facing an increasingly difficult situation due to supply issues.
  • The only remaining supply route is a dirt road from the direction of Novoocheretuvate, which is under constant attack.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
  • "Воин DV" reports that Russian forces are continuing their offensive to liberate Velyka Novosilka, having established positions on the northeastern and southeastern parts of the city.
  • "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that the enemy is fleeing Velyka Novosilka and that strikes are being carried out on the crossing with personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The message also states that the cleanup of the neighborhoods is currently underway.
  • "Воин DV" reports that Russian forces have blocked Ukrainian forces in the northern and southern parts of Velyka Novosilka without escape routes. The "Vostok" group is reportedly using all available means to attack the blocked enemy.
  • New: Voenkor Kotenok reports that the garrison in Velyka Novosilka is almost divided in two. Russian forces have reached the Ukrainian street from Pervomaiskaya street and are fighting between Shkolnaya and Gagarina streets. Russian forces hold positions along the banks of the Mokrye Yaly and Kashlagach rivers. The escape route for Ukrainian forces is not physically blocked but is under fire control and limited by the Mokrye Yaly river. Artillery fire and enemy drones are hindering the advance.

• Pokrovsk Direction:

  • Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city.
  • "Otvazhnye" forces are reportedly continuing their offensive towards Pokrovsk, destroying NATO equipment and Ukrainian infantry.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces reportedly seizing the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back.
  • A message from "Дневник Десантника" reports that south of the Novyi microdistrict in the forest area on the territory of the Mir and Bunker children's camp, Russian forces dislodged the enemy from the buildings and eliminated an enemy group.
  • The message also reports that Russian forces cleared the forest area and advanced another 800 meters.
  • Near the Dniprovskyi pond in Chasov Yar, Russian artillerymen from the "Grad" MLRS engaged enemy positions.
  • Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area.

• Kurakhove:

  • On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Clashes were reported near Vremivka, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka.
  • A new video shows fighters from Yakutia with the callsigns Amga and Gorets, who evacuated civilians from Vremivka under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberating several settlements.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
• Other:
  • A report from the Russian Ministry of Defense states that Russian forces repelled an attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region.
  • The Russian Armed Forces are continuing an operation to neutralize an enemy group that broke into the territory of the Kursk region.
  • The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements.
  • Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery strikes engaged AFU manpower and hardware near several settlements.
  • Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
  • Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
  • The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
  • New: Russian forces have established a flag on the southern outskirts of Nikolaevo-Daryino and have knocked Ukrainian forces out of the western approaches of Malaya Loknya.

Kharkiv Region

• Explosions in Kharkiv:
  • Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.
  • A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
  • The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleg Sinegubov, reported a threat of enemy drone attacks across the Kharkiv region, with reports of explosions and air defense activity. Two police officers were injured in Osinovo due to a drone attack.
  • New: Debris from a Russian Shahed drone was found in the Kholodnohirskyi district of Kharkiv. Another strike was recorded outside the city.
  • New: An explosion was heard in Kharkiv.

Luhansk Region

• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity:
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones: in the southern part of the Kharkiv region, with a north-westerly course. They also report the movement of attack drones in Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • A new group of attack drones is reported in the south of the Sumy region, with a south-westerly course.
  • One drone is reported flying near Balovnoe, one is flying near Bereznegovatoe, two are flying near Krivoy Rog, one is flying near Pereyaslav, and one is flying north of Kupyansk.
  • New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug.
  • New: One drone is flying south of Voznesensk towards the north of the Odessa region. Five drones are circling near Yelanets, moving towards the Voznesensky district. One drone is west of Zaporizhzhia, moving west. One drone is flying through Pavlograd towards the south. Four drones are circling near Kharkiv, with reports of anti-aircraft activity. Two drones are near Okhtyrka, moving towards the Poltava region. One drone is north of the Chernihiv region, moving southwest.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare.
• Smolensk Under Attack:
  • Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported.
  • Preliminary reports indicate the target is the Yartsevo oil refinery.
  • Russian air defenses are reportedly active.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that over the past day, air defense systems intercepted 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in various regions, including LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that air defense forces shot down three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the Black Sea off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the strike on the oil depot in the Voronezh region and the aircraft factory in the Smolensk region.
• New Drone: "Colonelcassad" reports that the first 3,000 "Mikrob" kamikaze drones with artificial intelligence, allowing autonomous target tracking after operator acquisition, have been delivered to the special military operation zone in Ukraine. The drone is said to have sufficient dynamic characteristics, including high speed and maneuverability. According to reports from the Ministry of Defense, one unit using 40 drones destroyed enemy equipment worth more than the cost of all 3,000 drones produced.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to destroy a Russian "TOR-M2" air defense system in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Ukrainian forces report a successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system using an FPV drone.
• DJI has released a new drone, the DJI Matrice 4T, which features two advanced cameras with improved detail and a new thermal imager. It also includes a laser rangefinder for precise distance measurement and AI technology for easier detection of vehicles and people.

Geopolitical Developments

• A TASS report states that Slovakia is threatened with destabilization by those who participated in similar events in Georgia, according to a representative of the Fico party.
• Trump threatened Putin with taxes, duties, and sanctions on all Russian goods if Moscow refuses to make peace in Ukraine, according to "Север.Реалии."
• New: CNN reports that Trump has begun his new term with unusually critical remarks towards Putin, stating that Putin is "destroying Russia" by not making a deal with Ukraine and warning that "Russia will face big problems." The White House reportedly believes that Russia may be running out of time and intends to take advantage of this.
• New: The Yemeni Houthis have released the crew of the seized ship Galaxy Leader, which was captured in 2023. The crew included citizens of Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Mexico, and the Philippines. The release is reportedly in support of the ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas.
• New: The "New People" party in Russia is preparing to introduce a bill on a unified digital document that will combine a passport, SNILS, and a work record book, according to the head of the faction, Alexei Nechaev.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly in Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion, with Russian forces blocking Ukrainian troops in the northern and southern parts of the city and nearly dividing the garrison in two. In Pokrovsk, Russian forces are closing in, while in Chasiv Yar, they continue to advance, clearing significant areas and pushing Ukrainian forces back. The capture of Solenoye and the ongoing battles for Udachnoye and Kotlino further complicate the situation for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces are conducting successful operations to repel Ukrainian incursions. The reported use of the new AI-equipped "Mikrob" drone by Russian forces adds a new dimension to the conflict, potentially enhancing their reconnaissance and strike capabilities.

Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force continues to report the movement of attack drones across various regions, indicating an ongoing threat. The reported successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system by Ukrainian forces demonstrates their continued ability to target and destroy Russian military assets. The new reports of drone movements, particularly in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions, highlight the persistent threat posed by drone warfare. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts underscore the ongoing danger and the need for constant vigilance. The introduction of the new DJI Matrice 4T drone, with its advanced capabilities, could potentially enhance reconnaissance and targeting capabilities for both sides, further intensifying the technological aspect of the conflict.

Geopolitically, the situation remains tense, with new threats from Trump towards Russia if peace is not achieved. Trump's recent critical remarks towards Putin, as reported by CNN, mark a significant shift in rhetoric and could signal a change in US policy towards Russia. The reported release of the Galaxy Leader crew by the Yemeni Houthis adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics. The new bill in Russia on a unified digital document could have implications for data security and privacy.

Overall, the military situation in Ukraine remains dynamic and challenging for Ukrainian forces. The continued Russian advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, coupled with the ongoing drone warfare and geopolitical tensions, suggest that the conflict is far from over. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict, with both sides likely to adapt their strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. The new reports of drone movements towards Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions indicate a potential escalation in drone attacks, requiring increased vigilance and air defense readiness.