Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 22, 2025, 07:08 UTC

Key Military Developments

Donetsk Region

Svatove-Kremenna Direction: Russian forces advanced on three fronts, expanding control near Terny and securing positions near Yampolivka. A Russian drone destroyed a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction with a "KUB" guided munition.
Velyka Novosilka: The assault on Velyka Novosilka continues, with Russian troops fighting on the outskirts. Ukrainian forces are using drones defensively, with no reports of mass retreat despite the risk of encirclement. Russian forces are reportedly 1.5 km from encircling Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent encirclement by avoiding urban combat and focusing on positions north and south of Novy Komar. A Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer destroyed a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne with a "Krasnopol" guided projectile. The People's Militia of the DPR showed the liquidation of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile. The "Воин DV" Telegram channel showed operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River. "Воин DV" reports that Russian forces are continuing their offensive to liberate Velyka Novosilka, having established positions on the northeastern and southeastern parts of the city. Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. The "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows a Russian drone operator targeting a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. The video claims the operation is being carried out by the 30th "Moscow" regiment on the Sudzhan direction. The "STERNENKO" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian forces from the UA REG TEAM targeting Russian forces, their equipment, and weapons in the Kursk region. The message emphasizes the difficult situation and appeals for donations.
Chasiv Yar: Heavy fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces reportedly having seized the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back. Russian forces have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. Tank crews of the 63rd Brigade reportedly attacked Russian positions in the Serebryansky forest. Russian forces report advances in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, as well as ongoing battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant. "Colonelcassad" shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. They are also making progress in a nearby forest. Reports of Russian forces making significant advances in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and engaging in battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant. The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" shows the destruction of Russian forces, including four dozen "motorpikes" who launched an assault north of Vesele. "Дневник Десантника" reports that Russian forces have expanded their control zone to Belohorivka on the Krasnolimanske direction. Fighting is ongoing on its outskirts. They are also advancing northwest of Ivanivka towards Kolodyazne.
Pokrovsk Direction: A Russian drone destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near Pokrovsk. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city and within 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. From the Pokrovsk direction, there are reports of the success of Russian troops in Kotlyno and Udachny, which indicates the implementation of the plan to cover the city from the southwest. Enemy resources recognize the loss of control over mine No. 2 of the Pokrovskoe ShU. Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaged Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank. 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. Retreating Ukrainian forces blew up the Belitskaya mine in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. North of Ivanivka, the situation is deteriorating. Reports of the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" potentially ceasing operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Northwest of the liberated Kurakhovo, Russian forces are leveling the front line on the Petropavlovka-Shevchenko section. To the southwest, Russian units are fighting for Dachnoye. There are battles along the forest belts north and northeast of Sukhoi Yaly. Russian forces targeted and destroyed communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones. Active combat operations reported near Kurakhovo. Successful strike on a Ukrainian armored vehicle south of Dachne after being targeted by a Russian FPV drone. Ukrainian forces successfully stormed a Russian position near Kurakhove and captured several Russian soldiers. The operation was carried out by the 79th Separate Air Assault Tauride Brigade.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children. Reports of the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk being partially without power due to an emergency shutdown, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city.
Zaporizhzhia Region: Infrastructure damage was reported in Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Zaporizhzhia region. The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. Ukrainian forces are reportedly shelling Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region using MLRS, according to Russian sources. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region. On the Zaporozhye front, the Ukrainian forces continue to strengthen their positions through foreign mercenaries and the transfer of equipment, which becomes a priority target for Russian artillery, drones, and aircraft. Russian pilots struck at enemy positions in the area of Temirovka. The enemy at the same time hit the court building in Vasilyevka with artillery. Overnight, Russian forces launched 434 strikes on 9 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region. Six airstrikes targeted Novoandriivka and Novodanylivka. 264 UAV attacks were reported on Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Novodarivka, and Charivne. Additionally, 10 MLRS attacks hit Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodarivka, and 154 artillery strikes targeted Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Huliaipilske, and Novodarivka. Ten reports of damage to residential buildings and infrastructure were received, with no civilian casualties reported.

Kursk Region

Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting continues in the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces launching constant counterattacks, slowing Russian progress. Despite this, Russian forces are advancing near Nikolaevo-Daryino. Russian forces maintain the initiative, the past day was characterized by attacking actions of Russian troops. The “North” troop group reports reaching the approaches to the Nikolsky farm and the village of Kurilovka. At the same time, the Ukrainian forces concentrated manpower and equipment in Sudzha and Martynovka. It is also reported about strikes by "Lancers" and missile weapons on concentrations of Ukrainian forces in the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, on units of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, 41st Mechanized Brigade, and the Center for Special Operations Forces "South". Noteworthy is the information about the strike on the accumulation of Spanish-speaking foreign mercenaries.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region. Russian troops used an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region. A successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye. Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region. A successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Russian forces successfully employed a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. A North Korean soldier evicted two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. A Russian drone targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region. An FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroyed a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region. A Russian Su-34 bomber destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Movement of Enemy Equipment in Kursk Oblast: From 6 AM until the time of this report, there has been a significant movement of various enemy equipment in Kursk Oblast. Some of this equipment has been destroyed. A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region. A Ukrainian tank was destroyed by a Russian drone in the Kursk region. The Russian Ministry of Defense shows electronic warfare specialists of a separate motorized infantry brigade of the "Sever" group detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs in the Kursk region border area. "WarGonzo" shows a special report on a Russian armored group called "Pressa" operating in the Kursk region. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber. A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region. There is video evidence of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces successfully employed a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye. A Russian soldier won a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. A North Korean soldier evicted two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. A Russian Su-34 bomber destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. There is video evidence of a captured US M-577 command and staff vehicle (based on the M113) in the Kursk region. A Russian "Lancet" drone struck a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. The "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows fighting near Glubokoye in the Kursk region. "Mediazona" confirmed the deaths of at least three lieutenant colonels in a missile strike on Lgov, Kursk region, on December 30th. A Russian Ka-52M helicopter conducted strikes on Ukrainian armor and personnel in the Kursk border area. A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region. "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" shows a drone operator with the callsign "Moses" preparing a "Baba Yaga" drone for an attack in the Kursk region. The "Knyaz Vandal" drone struck a Ukrainian military vehicle in the Kursk region.
New Report: Ukrainian forces are suffering losses due to faulty ammunition, particularly in the area of Hryhorivka, west of Bilohorivka in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).

Kharkiv Region

Kharkiv and Kupiansk: The Kharkiv region was under intense attack from Russian forces yesterday, with FAB munitions used against military targets in Kharkiv, Kupiansk, and the broader Kupiansk area. On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Hlushkivka, Shyykivka, and Borivsk Andriyivka.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Sumy: In Sumy, Russian troops struck a Ukrainian deployment site, killing 18 and wounding 30.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near several settlements. Enemy aircraft struck with unguided rockets at Zelenyi Hai. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zarichne.
Borova Direction (New): Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.

Drone Warfare

Sumi Region: Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 26 "Shahed" drones over the Sumi region overnight. Late in the evening, an enemy drone strike targeted the residential sector of Sumy, partially destroying the upper floor of a two-story private residential building and starting a fire. The fire has been extinguished. Preliminary reports indicate damage to 13 private residential buildings. Three people sustained minor injuries and acute stress reactions.
Dnipropetrovsk Region: One drone was shot down over the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 2 "Shahed" drones over the Mykolaiv Oblast.
Mykolaiv: During the night, an enemy drone attack on Mykolaiv resulted in damage to residential buildings, a fire, and two casualties. In Mykolaiv, several units of electric transport and the transport of structural units of the enterprise were damaged. As a result of the evening attack on Mykolaiv, in addition to buildings, several units of electric transport and transport of structural units of the enterprise were damaged. Specifically, new Dnipro trolleybuses and special vehicles - a freight service wagon of the track service - sustained significant damage. Also, due to the elimination of the consequences of the shelling, today, January 22, there will be no distribution of purified water by tram and trolleybus. The movement of electric transport on the city's routes will operate according to the schedules. Fortunately, there were no casualties. The new ASTRA report details that the drones that attacked Mykolaiv were confirmed to be Russian, and resulted in a fire and partial destruction of one floor of an apartment building. 200 people were evacuated from the building. A 74-year-old woman was hospitalized in serious condition, and a man received first aid for an acute stress reaction but refused hospitalization.
Drone Activity: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, and Odesa. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions.
Attacks Inside Russia: Drone attacks inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure, including Almetyevsk, Voronezh, Tula, Smolensk, and Tatarstan. Airports in Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks. New explosions have been reported in Kazan, Russia, affecting several districts. Temporary restrictions were introduced at the airports of Nizhnekamsk, Kazan, and now also Izhevsk in Tatarstan and Udmurtia. A drone fragment was reportedly found near a residential building on Mozhaysky Street in Kazan, and residents are being evacuated. Overnight in Kazan, a drone flew in the Aircraft Building area of the city at about 04:30 in the morning, after which an explosion was heard in the sky. According to eyewitnesses, the UAV tried to attack local enterprises. In the morning, new explosions sounded, fires visible on the ground. Presumably, according to the media, the target could be the aviation and helicopter plants in Kazan. In addition, air defense systems shot down UAVs over Ryazan. The Kazan Gorbunov Aviation Plant was attacked by drones. The plant is a branch of Tupolev, one of the largest enterprises of the Russian aviation industry. An attempt to attack industrial enterprises in Kazan was undertaken, all drones were neutralized, according to authorities. Overnight, the Russian air defense system shot down 31 enemy UAVs. Almost half of the drones - 14 - were destroyed over the Bryansk region. Six more UAVs were intercepted over the Kaluga region, three over the Belgorod and Kursk regions, two over the Ryazan and Orel regions, and one over the Tatarstan region. In Kaluga, high-precision debris from drones again set fire to some enterprise.

Missile Attacks

Ballistic and X-22 Missiles: The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region, with missiles continuing their movement south in the Kharkiv region. X-22 missiles are reported flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region.
HIMARS Interception: Four HIMARS missiles were reportedly shot down over the Bryansk region.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been declared in Kyiv and several other oblasts due to the threat of ballistic missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported a missile threat to the Sumy region, with a high-speed target detected in the Sumy region heading towards Chernihiv region.

Geopolitical Developments

US-Russia Relations: Newly elected US President Donald Trump stated he will impose additional sanctions on Russia if Putin does not agree to peace talks. He also called on Chinese leader Xi Jinping to help end the war in Ukraine and confirmed his intention to speak with Putin soon.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan: The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has refused to return US weapons previously supplied to the Ashraf Ghani regime. The Taliban is demanding the return of Afghan funds held in US accounts, continued financial aid, and renewed arms supplies to combat ISIS.
Potential Trump-Xi Meeting: US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a visit to China within the first 100 days of his presidency and has discussed a potential meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: US President-elect Donald Trump has reportedly instructed to organize a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin after the inauguration. Trump has reportedly instructed his aides to arrange a phone call with Putin within a few days after taking office as US President, according to CNN. The purpose of the call is reportedly to discuss a personal meeting in the coming months to try to stop the war in Ukraine. The report notes that during his election campaign, Trump promised to end the conflict within one day after taking office. However, on the eve of his inauguration, with no clear signs of an early end to the almost three-year war, he is likely to break that promise. Once Trump takes office, American and Russian officials will be able to begin serious work on organizing such a meeting. The new president said that negotiations are already underway. Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
Shifting European Approach to Ukraine: Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gaspar stated that Europe's approach to the Ukrainian issue is changing and that the coming weeks will be decisive.
Slovak Veto Threat: Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gaspar suggested that Slovakia might veto aid to Ukraine, emphasizing the need for Ukraine to act as a "trustworthy partner."
US National Security Advisor: Urges for an end to the war in Ukraine. He highlights three main issues to be resolved for a peaceful settlement: who to invite to the negotiating table, how to get them there, and the framework of a possible deal.
NATO Activity: A NATO flotilla is assembling near the coast of Estonia to protect European underwater cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea. A Dutch frigate, a naval research vessel, and a German minesweeper have arrived in Tallinn, with a French minesweeper and additional NATO ships expected.
New Sanctions Against Russia: The new US president, Donald Trump, has allowed for new sanctions against Russia if Putin refuses to negotiate. He also called on Xi Jinping to help end the war, stating, "He hasn't done much for this. He has a lot... of power, just like we have a lot of power. I said, 'You have to solve this.' We discussed it." When asked about further military aid to Ukraine, Trump said he would consider this issue and stressed that the EU should increase its contribution to the level of the US. The new ASTRA report details that the new Syrian authorities have terminated the contract with Russia for the port of Tartus. In 2019, Syria signed an agreement with Stroytransgaz to expand the port of Tartus for a period of 49 years. It was planned to allocate $500 million for its modernization over four years. The new authorities terminated the contract. All income from the management of the port will go "for the benefit of the Syrian state," and the workers will return to local management, said Al-Watan, director of customs in Tartus, Riyad Judy. He added that the Syrian side will also restore outdated equipment "that was used by the company without the updates provided for in the agreement." The new message from "Дневник Десантника" reports that all Pentagon officials responsible for assisting Ukraine have been dismissed. All employees of the US Department of Defense responsible for the Ukrainian direction have been dismissed or will be transferred to new positions. A complete reboot is underway. Immediately after the inauguration, Trump suspended any aid to countries for three months.

Other Developments

Kryvyi Rih: The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as stable, with no shelling in the district. One enemy drone was shot down in the region overnight.
Nikopol: A Russian attack on a business in the Nikopol district caused a fire. Heavy artillery fire targeted the Pokrovska community, but there were no casualties.
Court Proceeding in Kirovo-Chepetsk: A court proceeding is scheduled for today, January 22, 2025, at 13:20 Moscow time in Kirovo-Chepetsk.
Fundraising for Russian Special Forces: A fundraising campaign is ongoing to support a Russian special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction, with requests for donations of quadcopters, parts, and body armor.
Belgorod: A man who set fire to an installation with the letter "Z" in Belgorod was sentenced to 6.5 years in prison, allegedly for possession of explosives. The man claims the explosives were planted and that he was tortured during detention. In the Belgorod region, Shebekino was hit. The village of Murom was attacked by an FPV drone. In the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, the village of Grafovka was attacked by two kamikaze UAVs. In the village of Cheremoshnoye, Belgorod region, a drone hit a car. The village of Tishanka, Volokonovsky district, was subjected to enemy shelling.
Horlivka: In Horlivka, nine civilians were injured due to shelling by Ukrainian forces.
Tula Oblast: In Tula Oblast, the Russian army repelled an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.
New: The radio station "Novgorod Wave" was fined for broadcasting songs by Zemfira and Noize MS without indicating their "foreign agent" status. An administrative case on abuse of freedom of mass information was initiated against the editor-in-chief of the radio station Evgeny Kuznetsov and the founding company "Communication and Components." According to Roskomnadzor, the radio station played tracks by Zemfira, Noize MS, and Morgenshtern without indicating their status. The founding company was fined 40 thousand rubles, and the editor-in-chief - 4 thousand rubles.
New: The price of potatoes in Russia has increased by 92% over the year, making it the most expensive product in 2024. Experts attribute the price increase to a decrease in potato production in 2023 due to a record harvest, which led to lower prices. In 2024, the situation changed due to reduced planting areas and unfavorable weather conditions. The average price per kilogram of potatoes in December 2024 was 56.9 rubles, compared to about 28 rubles in December 2023. Other food products that have become significantly more expensive in 2024 include:
- Butter: The average price per kilogram reached almost 1.2 thousand rubles, an increase of 36.2% compared to December 2023. Producers attribute the price increase to rising production costs.
- Red caviar: The average price per kilogram reached 9.2 thousand rubles.
- Onions: +48.2%
- White cabbage: +44.7%
- Beets: +32.1%
- Cucumbers: +28.5%
- Fruits and vegetables in general: +22.09%
New: Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 434 strikes on 9 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region. Six airstrikes were carried out on Novoandriivka and Novodanylivka. 264 UAVs of various modifications attacked Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Novodarivka, and Charivne. 10 MLRS attacks hit Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodarivka. 154 artillery strikes were carried out on the territory of Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbakiv, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Huliaipilske, and Novodarivka. There were 10 reports of damage to residential buildings and infrastructure. No civilians were injured.
New: In the Dnipropetrovsk region, an explosion occurred at one of the enterprises in the Nikopol district following an air raid alert. The enemy used the territory for military purposes.
New: F-16s were spotted flying in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Last week, two F-16 fighter jets were observed in the south of the Ukrainian-occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region. The planes flew towards the Pology district, turned around, and flew back. The exact take-off area is unknown. However, there are only a few airfields capable of accommodating F-16s. Most likely, the route was as follows: F-16s were previously transferred from Poland to an airfield in Ivano-Frankivsk or Lutsk. From there, they could have moved to Ozerny in the Zhytomyr region or Vasylkiv in the Kyiv region. Vasylkiv, by the way, is one of the first airfields modernized for American aircraft. From there, they could easily fly to the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, practice flight routes, use several jump bases, and simulate strikes on Russian cities. Until now, F-16s have rarely been seen in eastern Ukraine. Previously, they were regularly observed in western Ukraine, occasionally flying into the Myrhorod area. Last week, they were active in Zaporizhzhia. And, most likely, these were training flights to practice the scenario of their use in combat. Since the transfer of the fighters, they have not been used for their intended purpose. And now the question is: why did they appear right now?
New: Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called for the lifting of sanctions against Russia, arguing that they have damaged the EU's competitiveness without

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces are maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts, particularly in the Svatove-Kremenna direction and around Velyka Novosilka, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces are resisting fiercely, employing drones extensively, especially in Velyka Novosilka. The heavy fighting in the Kursk region continues, with Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian advances near Nikolaevo-Daryino.

In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces launched intense attacks using FAB munitions, targeting Kharkiv, Kupiansk, and the broader Kupiansk area. Drone attacks and explosions were reported in Kharkiv, with a fire breaking out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the use of guided aerial bombs (KAB) in the region.

Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with widespread activity reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 26 "Shahed" drones over the Sumi region and one over the Dnipropetrovsk region. A drone attack on Mykolaiv caused damage to residential buildings, a fire, and two casualties, with several units of electric transport also damaged.

Drone attacks inside Russian territory were confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Airports in several Russian cities were closed due to drone activity. Explosions were reported in Kazan, affecting several districts and leading to temporary restrictions at airports in Tatarstan and Udmurtia.

The geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, with newly elected US President Donald Trump stating he will impose additional sanctions on Russia if Putin does not agree to peace talks. Trump also called on Chinese leader Xi Jinping to help end the war in Ukraine and confirmed his intention to speak with Putin soon. Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has refused to return US weapons previously supplied to the Ashraf Ghani regime, demanding the return of Afghan funds held in US accounts, continued financial aid, and renewed arms supplies to combat ISIS.

In other developments, the situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as stable, while a Russian attack on a business in the Nikopol district caused a fire. A court proceeding is scheduled in Kirovo-Chepetsk, and a fundraising campaign is ongoing to support a Russian special forces unit operating in the Donetsk direction.

The new messages add the following updates:

Mykolaiv was attacked by Russian drones, causing a fire in a residential building and damage to several units of electric transport. 200 people were evacuated, and a 74-year-old woman was hospitalized in serious condition.
US President Donald Trump is considering new sanctions against Russia if Putin does not agree to peace talks. He also called on Xi Jinping to help end the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs at least 200,000 peacekeepers to prevent a new Russian attack.
Over 20 US states have filed a lawsuit against Trump's executive order to abolish birthright citizenship.
The radio station "Novgorod Wave" was fined for broadcasting songs by Zemfira and Noize MS without indicating their "foreign agent" status.
The price of potatoes in Russia has increased by 92% over the year, making it the most expensive product in 2024. Other food products have also seen significant price increases.
Russian forces carried out 434 strikes on 9 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region overnight.
An explosion occurred at an enterprise in the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region following an air raid alert.
F-16s were spotted flying in the Zaporizhzhia direction, likely conducting training flights.
The new Syrian authorities have terminated the contract with Russia for the port of Tartus.
All Pentagon officials responsible for assisting Ukraine have been dismissed or will be transferred to new positions. Trump has suspended any aid to countries for three months.
An air raid alert has been declared in Kyiv and several other oblasts due to the threat of ballistic missiles. A high-speed target was detected in the Sumy region heading towards Chernihiv region.
The "Knyaz Vandal" drone struck a Ukrainian military vehicle in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces are suffering losses due to faulty ammunition, particularly in the area of Hryhorivka, west of Bilohorivka in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called for the lifting of sanctions against Russia, arguing that they have damaged the EU's competitiveness without

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in Sumy, Chernihiv,

Situation Report