Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 22, 2025, 03:38 UTC

Changes from Previous Situation

• New Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia: An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• New Airstrikes on the Border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia: Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
• Russian Forces Destroyed Over 10 Ukrainian Concentration Points in LPR: According to Marochko, Russian forces destroyed over 10 locations of Ukrainian forces who intended to conduct a counterattack in the LPR.
• Data from Ukrainian Soldiers' Smartphones Helps Investigate War Crimes: According to former SBU officer Vasily Prozorov, data from captured Ukrainian soldiers' smartphones helps the Investigative Committee investigate war crimes committed by Ukrainian fighters.
• Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia Lifted: The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.
• Bodies of Executed Civilians Found in Hornyak: After the liberation of Hornyak from Ukrainian forces, the bodies of executed civilians were found, according to a shooter of the 5th Commandant Regiment of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army with the call sign "Levy."

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces continuing to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region. Intense fighting persists around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces making significant advances and capturing key areas. The situation in Toretsk is particularly dire for Ukrainian forces, with the city almost entirely under Russian control.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces continue to advance, including near Nikolskoye. The reported involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, if confirmed, adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of foreign involvement on the Russian side.

Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with ongoing attacks across multiple regions. The recent drone attacks on Smolensk mark a notable escalation, with reports of multiple explosions, active air defenses, and a fire at a military factory, indicating a potential shift in targeting strategic locations deep inside Russian territory. The continued drone activity in various Ukrainian regions, as reported by the Ukrainian Air Force, highlights the persistent threat posed by these weapons.

The new reports of Russian airstrikes on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, coupled with the destruction of Ukrainian concentration points in the LPR, indicate continued Russian pressure on multiple fronts. The claim that data from captured Ukrainian soldiers' smartphones is being used to investigate war crimes suggests an intensification of information warfare and potential legal battles in the future. The discovery of executed civilians in Hornyak raises serious concerns about potential war crimes committed by Ukrainian forces.

The geopolitical developments, including the comments from the Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker and the meeting between Zelensky and the Lithuanian parliament speaker, underscore the complex international landscape surrounding the conflict. The potential meeting between US President-elect Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could have far-reaching implications for the conflict, potentially altering the dynamics of international support for Ukraine. The confirmation of Ukrainian positions in the Borova direction suggests an attempt to consolidate their presence in the area.

The new air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia region, followed by reports of Russian airstrikes on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, indicates a renewed threat to these areas. The claim by Marochko that Russian forces destroyed over 10 Ukrainian concentration points in the LPR suggests continued Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian counterattacks and maintain the offensive initiative. The use of data from captured Ukrainian soldiers' smartphones to investigate alleged war crimes highlights the ongoing information warfare and legal battles surrounding the conflict. The discovery of executed civilians in Hornyak is a disturbing development that raises serious concerns about potential war crimes committed during the conflict.