Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 22, 2025, 02:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have captured several key locations, severely impacting Ukrainian logistics and defenses. The situation in Toretsk is particularly dire for Ukrainian forces, with the city almost entirely under Russian control. The encirclement of Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka is a significant threat, with Russian forces making substantial advances. Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kursk region have stalled, with Russian forces making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and capturing several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino. Drone warfare is intensifying, with reports of drone attacks across various regions, including deep inside Russian territory. Notably, Smolensk is under a sustained drone attack, with reports of an attack on an aviation plant and oil depot. Ukrainian forces report striking a Russian command post in Volnovakha.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city and 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle the city, establishing positions in the northeast and southeast.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone, with Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
Zaporizhzhia: A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. An air raid alert has been announced in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Other Areas: Russian forces have reportedly advanced in Velyka Novosilka, near Vozdvyzhenka, Slovyanka, and Sribne.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated several settlements and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka.
Intense Fighting: Reports indicate an impending decisive battle, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area.
Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
North Korean Involvement: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. Ukrainian paratroopers report the capture of a North Korean soldier.

Kharkiv Region

Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne, Hlushkivka, Shyykivka, and Borivsk Andriyivka.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A Russian drone, likely a "Molniya", reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.
Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south and drones on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions heading west.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare.
Smolensk Under Attack: Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported.
Increased Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports increased activity of Russian tactical aviation on the south-eastern direction, with a threat of using aviation weapons.
Guided Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the Donetsk region.

Geopolitical Developments

The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses."
Only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue, stated the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko.
Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support and that its accession to the EU would pose a significant threat to the European economy and agriculture.
President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, states that the Panama Canal belongs to Panama and will remain under Panamanian control.
Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament to discuss continued support for Ukraine.
Supporters of Donald Trump gathered near the Capitol to show their support. The center of Washington is cordoned off by police and the National Guard.
Donald Trump has stated his intention to pardon many of those convicted for participating in the storming of the Capitol.
The US Senate confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.
Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel, according to media reports.
Zelensky is ready for a deal to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, said Donald Trump.
Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
Senator Marco Rubio was officially approved as head of the US State Department.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
Donald Trump, in the Oval Office, told reporters that he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin after the relevant negotiations are established, adding that the process is already underway.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
Donald Trump began the first day of his presidency by signing decrees on energy, immigration policy, and national security, canceling a number of decisions of the Joe Biden administration.
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Russia expects that Trump and the leadership of Panama, during discussions, will respect the current international legal regime of the Panama Canal, stated Ryabkov to TASS.
The flag above the US Embassy in Moscow was raised by order of Trump.
Trump has suspended US aid to other countries for 90 days to conduct checks to determine whether they are in line with his political goals.
Armenia has no intention of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
BRICS is strong enough to withstand the threats of the new US President, stated the Russian Ambassador to Indonesia.
Putin and Xi Jinping held a video conference.
The Russian Foreign Ministry reports that Russia and China have reached an unprecedented level of relations and are ready to cooperate to create a more just multipolar world order.
Negotiations between Putin and Xi Jinping are ongoing, Peskov told TASS.
Lavrov will meet with the State Duma Committee on International Affairs before the government hour with the participation of the Minister, stated the head of the committee, Leonid Slutsky, to TASS.
The State Duma is considering imposing harsher penalties for extremism, with criminal liability potentially applying even for first-time offenses committed online, possibly leading to up to five years in prison.
The Russian Ministry of Justice's proposal to toughen penalties for "extremism" has been approved by the government commission.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years, according to The Telegraph.
Lavrov is visiting Armenia.
US President Trump signed a decree to reinstate the death penalty at the federal level in the US and ordered all states to be provided with a sufficient amount of the drug for lethal injections.
On the US border, migrants are no longer allowed to enter.
A bill will be submitted to the State Duma on the priority of hiring wives of mobilized individuals for state organizations and maintaining their positions during downsizing.
Syria has terminated the agreement with Russia regarding the port of Tartus.
Orbán has called on the EU to lift sanctions against Russia, arguing that they are only harming the EU.
A large fire is reported in Grozny, at the "Poisk" shopping center in the "Berkat" market. The cause of the fire is unknown.
A TASS report states that an agreement between Russia and Iran includes aspects of defense and security.
A TASS report states that Orban believes that once the conflict in Ukraine is over, sanctions against Russia will be "thrown out the window" and the West will establish normal relations with Russia.
A new TASS report indicates that there might be individuals from Ukrainian special services involved in the case of the bombing of a Russian officer.
American Daniel Martindale, who worked for Russia, stated in a video from TASS that Trump is no different from Biden and that there will be no changes in the US.

Changes compared to the previous 6 hours

Donetsk Region: Continued fighting in Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. New reports of fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka. Continued fighting in Zverevo.
Kursk Region: Continued Russian advances and new video evidence of fighting. Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes and casualties.
Luhansk Region: Further Russian advances reported.
Drone Warfare: Continued widespread drone activity, with new reports of drones in various regions. New reports on the movement of "Shahed" drones. Smolensk is under a sustained drone attack, with multiple explosions reported and air defenses active.
Geopolitical Developments: New statements from the US State Department, the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, and the President of Panama. Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament. Reports of Trump supporters gathering near the Capitol and Trump's intention to pardon those convicted for the Capitol riot. The US Senate confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Reports that Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to make significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with the city almost entirely under Russian control. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stalled, and Russian forces continue to advance. Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with ongoing attacks across multiple regions and a new, sustained attack on Smolensk. The new reports of drone movements, especially in the Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Sumy regions, indicate a continued threat to these areas. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts highlight the ongoing danger posed by these drones, with new reports indicating their presence on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading west, and increased activity of Russian tactical aviation on the south-eastern direction, with a threat of using aviation weapons. The Ukrainian Air Force also reported launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the Donetsk region. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, as reported by South Korean intelligence and Ukrainian sources, adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of foreign involvement on the Russian side. The geopolitical developments, particularly the comments from the Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker, highlight the complex international landscape surrounding the conflict. The meeting between Zelensky and the Lithuanian parliament speaker underscores the ongoing diplomatic efforts to support Ukraine and strengthen its position in the international arena. The drone attack on Smolensk marks a significant escalation, with reports of multiple explosions and active air defenses, indicating a potential shift in the targeting of strategic locations deep inside Russian territory. The new reports of a series of explosions, power and water outages, and a fire at a military factory in Smolensk further emphasize the intensity of the attack and its potential impact on Russian infrastructure. The gathering of Trump supporters near the Capitol and his intention to pardon those convicted for the Capitol riot add a new layer of complexity to the US political landscape, which could have indirect implications for US foreign policy and support for Ukraine. The confirmation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and reports that Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel further complicate the geopolitical situation. The new statements from Donald Trump regarding his intention to meet with Vladimir Putin and his claim that the US has a right to half of TikTok, along with his decree to create a new government structure headed by Elon Musk, add further complexity to the US political landscape and its potential impact on the conflict. The US exit from the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as Trump's signing of a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days, directly affect Ukraine. His decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants adds another layer of complexity. Among Trump's first presidential decrees are the introduction of a state of emergency in the US energy sector, the decision for the US to once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, the pardon of those convicted for storming the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the unblocking of the social network TikTok for 75 days, and the creation of the "Department of Government Efficiency." French President Macron's statement that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table, along with his call for increased recruitment of volunteers into the French army, further complicates the situation. The new messages add several important updates to the current situation:

New Military Updates

Drone Attacks on Smolensk Aviation Plant: Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant, which manufactures military aircraft, including Su-25 attack aircraft. This attack indicates Ukraine's continued capability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory and target military production facilities.
Russian Advances in Donetsk and Luhansk: Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with reports of heavy fighting and new territorial gains. The capture of Zelenyi Hai and the expansion of control zones near Ivanivka and Terny are particularly significant.
Drone Warfare: The downing of 55 Russian drones overnight, with targets including an oil depot in Liski and the Smolensk Aviation Plant, demonstrates the ongoing intensity of drone warfare. The use of drones by both sides continues to be a defining feature of the conflict.

Geopolitical Updates

Trump's Statements on Ending the War: US President Donald Trump's statement about ending the war in Ukraine "as quickly as possible" and his suggestion that both Ukraine and Russia need to make concessions indicate a potential shift in US policy. His planned meeting with Putin adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
Marco Rubio's Confirmation as Secretary of State: The confirmation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and his call for concessions from both Ukraine and Russia further emphasize the changing US stance on the conflict.
Suspension of US Aid to Foreign Countries: Trump's decision to suspend all programs of support for foreign countries for 90 days, including Ukraine, will have a significant impact on Ukraine's ability to continue the war effort. This move could potentially force Ukraine to the negotiating table.

Other Updates

Increased Demand for Psychologists in Moscow: The reported increase in demand for psychologists in Moscow suggests a growing mental health impact of the conflict on the Russian population.
Casualties from Drone Attack in Belgorod Region: The report of two civilians injured by a drone attack in the Belgorod region highlights the ongoing risk to civilian populations in border areas.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The continued Russian advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, particularly the capture of Zelenyi Hai and the expansion of control zones near Ivanivka and Terny, represent significant tactical victories for Russia. The intensification of drone warfare, with Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory and the downing of numerous Russian drones, demonstrates the evolving nature of the conflict and the increasing importance of air defense capabilities. The new video evidence of a successful Ukrainian sniper operation near Toretsk highlights the ongoing close-quarters fighting in the Donetsk region and the effectiveness of Ukrainian special operations forces. The video from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" showing unidentified aerial activity and explosions, coupled with the mocking caption, adds to the ongoing information war and highlights the use of propaganda and disinformation by both sides.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with Trump's statements and actions signaling a potential shift in US policy towards the conflict. The suspension of US aid to foreign countries, including Ukraine, will have a major impact on Ukraine's ability to sustain its war effort and could potentially force it to negotiate with Russia on unfavorable terms. The confirmation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and his call for concessions from both sides further reinforces this potential shift.

The reported increase in demand for psychologists in Moscow and the casualties from drone attacks in border regions highlight the human cost of the conflict on both sides.

Overall, the new information suggests that the conflict in Ukraine is entering a new phase, with increased pressure on Ukraine to negotiate and a potential shift in the balance of power in favor of Russia. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict. The new message from Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, provides important updates on the situation in the Kharkiv region:

Drone Attacks: Reports of drone attacks in various locations, including the discovery of an unexploded "Molniya-1" drone in Kharkiv and damage to a utility building in Osinovo, indicate continued Russian drone activity in the region.
Shelling and Airstrikes: Reports of shelling and airstrikes in multiple locations, including the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs), highlight the ongoing intensity of the conflict in the Kharkiv region.
Casualties and Damage: The report of two police officers injured and damage to a police vehicle in Osinovo, as well as the destruction of a private house in Shiykovka, underscore the human and material cost of the conflict.
Fighting Near Vovchansk: The report of two combat clashes with Russian forces near Vovchansk indicates continued fighting in this area.
Evacuations: The evacuation of 84 people, including 12 children, from dangerous areas highlights the ongoing impact of the conflict on civilian populations.

Updated Assessment

The reported increase in demand for psychologists in Moscow and the casualties from drone attacks in border regions highlight the human cost of the conflict on both sides.

Impact of new messages

The new messages do not significantly alter the overall strategic situation but provide further details on the ongoing conflict:

Missing Child in Khabarovsk Region: This report, while concerning, is a localized law enforcement issue and does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. It highlights the internal challenges faced by Russia but does not have broader strategic implications for the conflict.
Drone Activity on Khmelnytskyi and Rivne Border: This report indicates continued Ukrainian drone activity, likely for reconnaissance or targeting purposes. It suggests that Ukraine is maintaining its ability to conduct drone operations in these regions.
Enemy Tactical Aviation Activity: The report of Russian tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction, with the threat of using aviation weapons, confirms the ongoing air threat faced by Ukraine.
Launches of Guided Aerial Bombs in Donetsk Region: This report confirms continued Russian airstrikes in the Donetsk region, further reinforcing the assessment of intense fighting in this area.
Video of American Working for Russia: This video, while not directly related to military operations, highlights the ongoing information war and Russia's efforts to influence public opinion. The individual's statement that Trump is no different from Biden and that there will be no changes in the US could be used to demoralize Ukrainian supporters and sow discord among Ukraine's allies.
Video of Lancet Drone Strike: This video showcases the continued use of Lancet drones by Russian forces and their effectiveness in targeting Ukrainian armor. It reinforces the assessment of Russia's technological capabilities in drone warfare.
Potential Ukrainian Special Services Involvement in Russian Officer Bombing: This report suggests a possible escalation in covert operations and potential Ukrainian involvement in attacks inside Russia.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, while Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kursk region have stalled. Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The new reports of drone activity in the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, as well as the continued use of Lancet drones by Russian forces, highlight the ongoing importance of this aspect of the conflict.

The new reports, while not significantly changing the overall strategic situation, provide further details on the ongoing conflict and highlight the continued intensity of fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region. The potential involvement of Ukrainian special services in the bombing of a Russian officer could signal an escalation in covert operations. The information war continues, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation to influence public opinion and demoralize their opponents.

The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict, particularly in light of the potential shift in US policy and the ongoing Russian advances.

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 22, 2025, 02:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Kursk Region

Kharkiv Region

Luhansk Region

Drone Warfare

Geopolitical Developments

Changes compared to the previous 6 hours

Updated Situation

New Military Updates

Geopolitical Updates

Other Updates

Updated Assessment

Updated Assessment

Impact of new messages

Updated Assessment