Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 21, 2025, 20:38 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk region. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure across multiple fronts, achieving significant gains. The Donetsk region is the focal point, with critical situations in Toretsk and advances around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk is particularly dire for Ukrainian forces, with defenses nearing collapse. The encirclement of Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka is a significant threat, with Russian forces making substantial progress. Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kursk region have stalled, with Russian forces making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and capturing several settlements. Drone warfare is intensifying, with extensive activity across multiple regions and attacks deep inside Russian territory, particularly in Smolensk. Reports indicate new Russian drone-kamikaze "KUB-2" is being used. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new drone activity across multiple oblasts, with new threats in Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Air raid alerts have been issued, and there are reports of ballistic missile threats and guided aerial bombs. Geopolitical developments, including potential shifts in US policy and internal Ukrainian issues, add further complexity.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are nearing collapse, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are engaging in close-quarters combat, pushing Ukrainian troops out. Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk. Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka. Three combat clashes are still ongoing. Video evidence shows a sniper pair from the 2nd Mechanized Battalion simultaneously killing two Russian infantrymen. Video evidence shows that "protective blankets" used by Ukrainian forces are ineffective against Russian drones.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city, cutting key supply lines, including the penultimate railway line. The city hospital is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih. Russian forces are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. They are within 5-7 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city. The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of key supply lines significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement. Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka. Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west. On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near several settlements. Five clashes are ongoing. Ukrainian losses are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded, three vehicles destroyed, and one antenna of a UAV, with two additional vehicles significantly damaged. Reports of the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" potentially ceasing operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine. A photo message shows that "liberated" Pokrovsk now looks like this. Video shows missile trails and reports that Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove is under Russian control, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno and for strongholds. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank. Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne. Reports of fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka. Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the area with FPV drones.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are closing in from three directions, with the last supply road under their control. Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. They are intensifying their offensive to encircle the city, establishing positions in the northeast and southeast. Ukrainian sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around the city. Russian forces are attacking in the area of the milk factory, gas station, dormitory and airfield. Video evidence shows multiple explosions in a rural area near the city. Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault. Russian forces conducted a double strike on Ukrainian vehicles near the city. Video evidence shows the mass destruction of armored vehicles and enemy infantry near the boiler room. The city is reportedly in a "semi-encirclement." Video evidence purports to show the 40th Separate Brigade of the Ukrainian Coastal Defense Forces effectively engaging Russian targets with drones. The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have captured around half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have cleared the basements and workshops of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant, controlling approximately 20% of its territory and the fourth section. Video evidence shows Russian forces continuing to advance. Video shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant. Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant. Tactical successes are reported, with the 200th Brigade pushing the enemy out of the "Десятый" microdistrict and currently liberating the "Новосеверный" microdistrict. Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
Kramatorsk: The city experienced a powerful explosion in the industrial zone, with the number of casualties rising to eight. Power outages are also reported, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city. Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
Zaporizhzhia: A drone was reported flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. An air raid alert has been reissued for the region. The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting and destroying a Russian "TOR-M2" air defense system.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs (KAB) in the direction of Kostiantynivka and Slovyansk.
Video evidence shows a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne with a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction with a "KUB" guided munition.
A TASS report states that a Russian strike on the "Luch" design bureau in Kyiv may have eliminated foreign specialists servicing HIMARS MLRS.
Photos show the detention of a lawyer accused of recruiting agents for Russian intelligence.
A video shows the daily lives of Ukrainian soldiers, including food preparation and drone operations.
Video evidence shows soldiers of the 77th Airmobile Brigade using drones to dismantle enemy shelters and infantry.
The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully. Ukrainian defenses are built around mine waste heaps. Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs against these positions and drone control points. Fighting is ongoing in the landings near the city dump to the northwest.
Kursk Region
Stalled Counteroffensive: Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses estimated at up to 48,000. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Video evidence shows Ussuri paratroopers raising a flag in Nikolayevo-Daryino. Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka.
Intense Fighting: Ongoing active fighting is reported, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor. Reports indicate an impending decisive battle.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops. Video evidence shows various drone operations, including a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle and a Ukrainian tank being destroyed by a Russian drone. Electronic warfare specialists are also active, detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
North Korean Involvement: South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed. Ukrainian forces report the capture of a North Korean soldier. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled. An image from "STERNENKO" shows a wanted poster for three North Korean soldiers accused of killing five Russian marines.
Russian forces report finding the mutilated bodies of elderly people in Russkoe Porechnoe.
From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
Kharkiv Region
Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes are reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian airstrikes targeting several settlements and Veterynarne, Hlushkivka, Shyykivka, and Borivsk Andriyivka.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A Russian drone reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, injuring one person. One drone is approaching Balakliia. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in the western and central parts of Kharkiv region, heading west. Drones are also reported north of Kharkiv, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava regions, heading west.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community. Explosions are reported in the Kharkiv area, likely outside the city.
Russian Advance: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Borova is under threat of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) attack, and that enemy tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with deteriorating security conditions. Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that guided aerial bombs have been launched towards Zolochiv.
Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
Luhansk Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area and moving towards Hrekivka. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, destroying several Ukrainian strongholds. Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka in the LPR. Russian forces have reportedly taken the heights behind Makiivka (LPR). They also report advances beyond Nadiya towards the border with the Kharkiv region and have expanded their control zone to Belohorivka on the Krasnolimanske direction. Fighting is ongoing on its outskirts. They are also advancing northwest of Ivanivka towards Kolodyazne. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported in the Krasnyi Lyman - Ivanivka area. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their control zone on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanivka.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions, with new groups of attack drones reported. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold. Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts. Drones are reported north of Kamyanske in Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading west. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south. A map of air raid alerts shows that air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine. Video evidence shows the moment of today's drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region. Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west. New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. There are reports of drones in various districts, including Belotserkovsky, Akhtyrka, Kupyansky, and Berislavsky. New reports indicate 5 drones are flying past Bashtanka towards the Voznesensky district, 1 drone flew past Kryvyi Rih into the Kirovohrad region, 1 drone over Kropyvnytskyi, 2 drones in the Kamensky area, 7 drones in the Kremenchug district in a northwesterly direction, 4 drones circling in the Kupyansk area, 2 drones north of Lozova, Kharkiv region, in a westerly direction, 3 drones heading towards/through Nizhyn, 3 drones from Sumy region flying to Chernihiv region, 1 drone in the north of Poltava region in a westerly direction, 1 new drone from the Black Sea in the direction of Fontanka.
New Drone Technology: Russian forces are reportedly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, more resistant to electronic warfare. Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "KUB-2". Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya-2" drones equipped with TM-62M anti-tank mines for targeted strikes.
Smolensk Under Attack: Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported. The target is believed to be the Yartsevo oil refinery. Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant. Russian air defenses are reportedly active. One drone allegedly hit the roof of a residential building, with no reported casualties. Video evidence shows a series of explosions in Smolensk on the backdrop of a drone attack. The target of the drones was likely the Smolensk oil refinery Yartsevo. Air defense systems are reportedly operating in the area. Video evidence shows air defense systems operating in Smolensk. Video evidence shows a heavy vehicle moving on a snowy road at night in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a nighttime scene in a wooded area with the sound of a distant vehicle, potentially in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a pixelated surveillance camera feed from an unknown location within the Smolensk Oblast. Video evidence shows a heavy vehicle driving on a snowy or icy road at night, potentially in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a nighttime cityscape with explosions, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows air defense systems operating in Smolensk. Video evidence from a thermal camera shows drones targeting and destroying enemy equipment, potentially in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a residential building at night, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows an urban environment at night with a plume of smoke, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows a nighttime scene with a fire or explosion, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows a nighttime cityscape with a bright aerial object followed by a streak in the sky, potentially a missile launch or inbound munition near Smolensk. Video evidence shows a quiet urban scene at night, potentially near Smolensk.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, is confirmed, with the oil depot burning for 5 days. An oil depot near an airfield with strategic bombers in Engels, Russia, has been burning for three days after a drone attack.
Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts. 2 drones are reported to be heading towards/through Pervomaisk. 1 drone is reported to be flying from Dnipropetrovsk region towards Oleksandriia. 1 drone is reported to be north of Cherkasy, moving west. 4 drones are circling the Okhtyrka area. Cherkasy Oblast is under threat of a drone attack. A Russian drone is moving in the direction of Myrhorod from the northeast. A drone is also reported in the Shyshaky area (Poltava region), moving south. Drones on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest. Drones in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk. Drones in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south. Drone threat for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts. A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr. A drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv. A drone is reported in the north of Poltava heading west. A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv heading west. A drone is reported in the south of Poltava heading south. A drone is reported in central Kharkiv heading south. A drone is reported in Dnipropetrovsk heading south. A drone is reported in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia. A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. A drone was reported to be approaching Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnytskyi region. Two drones are circling in the north of Poltava Oblast. One drone is circling in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast. One drone is approaching Zhytomyr. New drones are detected in the Black Sea, moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of attack drones moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones in the Ternopil region from Khmelnytskyi. Seven drones are reported to be moving from the Black Sea towards Tatarbunary and are likely to turn towards Izmail. One drone is reported to be moving from the Khmelnytskyi region to the Ternopil region. Two drones are still circling in the north of the Poltava region. A drone is circling near Starokonstantinov. 12 drones from the Black Sea are flying towards Tatarbunary and then towards the Izmail district. Groups of attack drones are reported on Sumy Oblast, with most on the south of the oblast, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. The Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down 33 out of 50 drones launched by Russian forces on the night of January 17, 2025. The "Zapad" Grouping of Russian forces destroyed three Starlink satellite communication stations and 13 Ukrainian drone control points in one day. Operators of the "OMEGA" Central Special Forces successfully targeted and eliminated 2 Zala and 3 Supercam Russian reconnaissance UAVs. 5 Russian reconnaissance drones have been shot down. The drones were reportedly shot down by the "OMEGA" Central Special Forces. In the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, drone debris caused minor damage to a building's facade, with no reported casualties. Drone debris fell in the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, causing minor damage to a building's facade. Air defense forces are actively responding to a missile attack in Belgorod, with multiple explosions reported in the sky above the Belgorod region.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. A fire broke out in a military hospital in Tula, Russia, with reports of 57 people evacuated.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The plant is a major producer of high-strength plastics. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
Report of Ukrainian drone attack on "Turkish Stream" infrastructure: The "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones.
Tambov and Voronezh: Drones attacked a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions overnight.
27 Drones Destroyed: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 27 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight.
Drone attack on Poltava region: Russian forces attacked the Poltava region overnight using drones. The falling debris from the downed drones damaged energy infrastructure. 301 households and 22 legal consumers are currently without power.
Romanian Observation: Romanian observers reportedly witnessed a "Geranium" drone strike on Ukrainian infrastructure in the Odesa region.
Reports of alarm at the "Taneko" oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, with workers being evacuated.
Video evidence of a drone attack on an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan.
Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, causing a fire. Three fuel tanks are reportedly on fire.
Russian air defense is reportedly active in Anapa, with the city's alert system activated.
Reports of explosions and fires in several Russian regions, including Novorossiysk, Anapa, and near Yevpatoria in Crimea.
New: Video footage shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian soldier, with graphic imagery of the soldier's injuries. The video is being used for propaganda purposes by Ukrainian forces.
New: Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian position in Engels. The video claims that the drone successfully hit the target, causing a fire.
Drone Attack on Almetyevsk: Ukrainian drones attacked the Almetyevsk head oil pumping station of "Transneft".
New: Night footage of the destruction of two heavy Baba Yaga-type strike drones by soldiers of the 18th Army in the Kherson direction.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down over the Rostov region.
In Kyiv, debris from a downed drone fell into a reservoir in the Dniprovsky district.
In Sumy, an enemy drone is approaching from the northeast.
In Kryvyi Rih, an enemy drone is approaching from the north.
In the Klimovsky district, Bryansk region, there were reports of drone attacks on residential buildings and vehicles.
A new group of enemy drones is heading towards Mykolaiv region from the Black Sea.
In Kharkiv, an enemy drone is approaching from the northeast.
Missile Attacks
Explosions in Kyiv: Missile strikes have caused fires and damage in Kyiv'sShevchenkivskyi and Desnianskyi districts, resulting in at least four deaths and several injuries. The Lukianivska metro station has been closed due to damage.
Explosions in Kryvyi Rih: Reports indicate a series of missile strikes targeting Kryvyi Rih, with the number of wounded rising to 5. A Danish F-16 pilot instructor was killed in a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. A rocket hit a bomb shelter during an attack on an aviation college in Kryvyi Rih.
Explosions in Zaporizhzhia: Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia, with an infrastructure object reportedly hit. The number of wounded has risen to 10. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region, with reports of a high-speed target in the area.
Nationwide Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a nationwide ballistic missile threat, with X-22 missiles flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions. Kalibr missiles have been launched from the Anapa area.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile threat in areas where an air raid alert has been declared.
Ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
Enemy bombers are approaching the launch lines.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
There is a threat of ballistic missiles from the Belgorod and Voronezh regions.
A group of missiles is reported in the Sumy region, moving southwest.
Pryluki is under threat.
Ballistic missiles are reported to be heading towards Pryluki.
X-101 missiles are reported in the north.
A missile is reported to be heading from the south towards Kryvyi Rih.
Several Kalibr missiles are flying towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, likely further into the Kirovohrad region.
A group of missiles is heading from the Kherson region to the Mykolaiv region.
A group of missiles is reported in the north of the Sumy region, moving south.
Cruise missiles have been reported via Shostka towards Konotop, likely from Tu-95ms.
A cruise missile (KR) is reported from the north of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
Ukrainian forces report that on the night of January 17, 2025, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles.
Reports of repeated ballistic missile launches towards Kryvyi Rih.
A group of Kalibr missiles is heading towards Zelenodolsk. The group is also being targeted.
Other missiles are currently passing over Kazanka into the Kirovohrad region.
Missiles are reported to be heading towards or passing over Konotop.
Additional Kalibr missiles have entered the Beryslav district, moving towards Bereznehuvate.
Missiles from TU-95ms are crossing the border of the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, heading towards the Poltava region. There are up to 10 of these missiles.
Several missiles are near Kropyvnytskyi, heading west towards the Cherkasy/Vinnytsia regions.
A pair of missiles are passing through Bereznehuvate towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, with the possibility of turning towards Zelenodolsk.
The main group of missiles from the Chernihiv and Sumy regions is moving towards the Myrhorod district of the Poltava region.
Myrhorod is under threat from a missile approaching from the north.
Several Kalibr missiles are west of Kropyvnytskyi, heading towards or passing over Uman.
The main group of missiles from the north of the Poltava region is heading southwest towards the Cherkasy region.
A pair of Kalibr missiles is passing over Kazanka and entering the Kirovohrad region. Another pair has entered the Beryslav district and is following the same course, passing through Bereznehuvate towards Kazanka.
Russia is carrying out a massive missile attack on Ukraine. X-101/555, X-22, and Kalibr missiles are being used. A MiG-31K, a Kinzhal missile carrier, is also airborne.
The first missiles, along with Kalibr missiles, are in the Bila Tserkva district of the Kyiv region. The Kalibr missiles are heading northwest towards the Zhytomyr region. The missiles from the TU-95ms are flying through Pereiaslav towards Bila Tserkva.
A pair of cruise missiles is heading towards or passing over Cherkasy.
A missile is heading towards Chernihiv.
Several missiles are heading towards or passing over Bila Tserkva.
Reports of a new guided aviation missile heading towards Lebedyn and Poltava.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that guided aerial bombs have been launched towards Kherson region and the city of Kherson.
Ukrainian Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on the north of Sumy region.
Ukrainian Air Force reports a "high-speed target" in Sumy region.
Ukrainian Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched in the direction of Slovyansk.
In Sumy, guided aerial bombs are being used again.
Geopolitical Developments
US State Department claims new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
TASS reports an agreement between Russia and Iran includes defense and security aspects.
Hungary's PM Orbán stated Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support.
President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, states the Panama Canal belongs to Panama.
Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament.
Senator Marco Rubio was officially approved as head of the US State Department.
Donald Trump plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, without specifying a date.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days, affecting Ukraine.
US exited WHO and Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated the conflict in Ukraine will not end soon and Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Russia expects Trump and Panama to respect the current international legal regime of the Panama Canal.
The flag above the US Embassy in Moscow was raised by order of Trump.
Trump has suspended US aid to other countries for 90 days.
Armenia has no intention of leaving the EAEU.
BRICS is strong enough to withstand the threats of the new US President, stated the Russian Ambassador to Indonesia.
