Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 21, 2025, 14:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have made significant advances, capturing several key locations and severely impacting Ukrainian logistics and defenses. The capture of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant is a significant development. Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kursk region have stalled, with Russian forces making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and capturing several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino. Drone warfare is intensifying, with reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions, including deep inside Russian territory. Notably, Smolensk is under a sustained drone attack, with reports of an attack on an aviation plant. Ukrainian forces report striking a Russian command post in Volnovakha. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that over the past day, air defense systems intercepted 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in various regions, including LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, and three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the Black Sea off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula. A new report indicates that Russian forces have liberated the settlement of Volkovo in the DPR, with fighting ongoing in Toretsk. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Borova in the Kharkiv region is under threat of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) attack, and that enemy tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new drone activity on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest. Additional drone movements are reported in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk and in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south. New drone threats are also reported for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Ukrainian forces, along with allied units, have reportedly repelled several enemy assaults in the Kursk region.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out. Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka. Three combat clashes are still ongoing. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. New: Unconfirmed reports suggest that the last stronghold of Ukrainian forces in Toretsk has fallen and that the city has reverted to its former name, Dzerzhynsk. Other sources claim that Russian assault troops have captured most of the "Toreskaya" mine. While the complete liberation of Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) is expected soon, these reports highlight the significant progress made by Russian forces in the area.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city and 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city. Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka. Russian forces have cut the penultimate railway line to Pokrovsk. On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near several settlements. Five clashes are ongoing. Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded, three vehicles destroyed, and one antenna of a UAV, with two additional vehicles significantly damaged. The city hospital of Pokrovsk is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih. Reports indicate the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" may cease operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have defeated Ukrainian HIMARS in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near Pokrovsk.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, specifically south of Petropavlivka, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank of Kurakhovo. Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle the city, establishing positions in the northeast and southeast. Ukrainian sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around the city. The last road supplying the city is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka. On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attacked 19 times near Velyka Novosilka. The situation is described as extremely difficult, with Russian forces closing in from three directions. Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces report advances in Dmytriv, Urozhaine, Novosergiyivka, Slovyanka, and Yasenove. Ukrainian troops from the 110th Brigade are reportedly trying to raise spirits in their dugouts amid the Russian pressure on Velyka Novosilka.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. The basements and workshops of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar have been completely cleared. Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone, with Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions. The number of casualties has increased to eight, including two children. Reports indicate the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk is partially without power due to an emergency shutdown, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city.
Zaporizhzhia: A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. An air raid alert has been announced in the Zaporizhzhia region and lifted. A Ukrainian FPV drone reportedly targeted and destroyed a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Other Areas: Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction with a "KUB" guided munition. The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated the settlement of Volkovo in the DPR.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated several settlements and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka. Russian forces report capturing Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Russian forces launched a new attack near Nikolskoye, advancing over 1.5 km. Russian forces report that Nikolayevo-Daryino has been retaken.
Intense Fighting: Reports indicate an impending decisive battle, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Active fighting is ongoing. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed.
Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties. Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has reportedly lost 90 EW stations.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
North Korean Involvement: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. Ukrainian paratroopers report the capture of a North Korean soldier.
New Report: Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
New Report: Ukrainian forces, particularly the 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" in collaboration with the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, repelled a major mechanized assault by Russian forces in the Kursk region. The assault involved significant armored units and resulted in heavy losses for the Russian side. This successful defense showcases the effectiveness of combined arms tactics involving artillery, infantry, and drones, resulting in a significant victory and the destruction of enemy equipment worth tens of millions of dollars.

Kharkiv Region

Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne, Hlushkivka, Shyykivka, and Borivsk Andriyivka. On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A Russian drone, likely a "Molniya", reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv. One person has been reported injured due to the drone attack. New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, and that the city of Borova in the Kharkiv region is under threat of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) attack. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack. New: Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions. The enemy is using various weapons, including drones and multiple rocket launchers. The morning attack involved a "Molniya-2" drone targeting a Ukrainian police vehicle, injuring three officers. A civilian car was also hit, injuring a 64-year-old woman and a 68-year-old man. The city is under constant shelling, with no regard for the rules of war.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km. Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. Russian forces have expanded their control zone to Belohorivka on the Krasnolimanske direction. Fighting is ongoing on its outskirts. They are also advancing northwest of Ivanivka towards Kolodyazne. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka. Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region. Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near several settlements. Two combat clashes are ongoing.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.
Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.
New Report: Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka in the LPR.
New Report: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that units of the "West" group have liberated Novoyehorivka in the LPR.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south. Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov. Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of drones: in the northern part of Zhytomyr region heading west, in the southern part of Vinnytsia region heading west, in the northeastern part of Chernihiv region heading east, in the northern part of Cherkasy region heading southwest, in the northern part of Poltava region heading west, and moving from Sumy region towards Chernihiv region. New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones: in the southern part of the Kiev region towards Vinnitsa, from Sumy region towards Poltava, in the northern part of Poltava region in a westerly direction, in the eastern and south-eastern parts of Kharkov region in a westerly direction, in the northern part of Kherson region in the direction of Nikolaev/Dnepropetrovsk. One drone is reported flying near Balovnoe, one is flying near Bereznegovatoe, two are flying near Krivoy Rog, one is flying near Pereyaslav, and one is flying north of Kupyansk. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones from Mykolaiv region towards Odesa, in the eastern part of Kyiv region with a western course, in the northern part of Poltava region with a western course, on the border of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad regions with a northern course, in the eastern part of Kharkiv region constantly changing course, and south of Zaporizhzhia with a south-western course.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare.
Smolensk Under Attack: Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported. Preliminary reports indicate the target is the Yartsevo oil refinery. Russian air defenses are reportedly active. One drone allegedly hit the roof of a residential building, with no reported casualties. There are new reports of a series of explosions in Smolensk. At least 5 explosions were reported. Air defense systems are actively operating in the area. Reports of power and water outages in several buildings in Smolensk following the drone attack. A fire was reported at a military factory in Smolensk. Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant, which manufactures military aircraft, including Su-25 attack aircraft. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the strike on the oil depot in the Voronezh region and the aircraft factory in the Smolensk region.
New Report: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that over the past day, air defense systems intercepted 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in various regions, including LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
New Report: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that air defense forces shot down three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over the Black Sea off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula.
New Report: Ukrainian forces utilized drones to target and destroy Russian military equipment and personnel. The "Baltic Group" reportedly used drones to engage Russian forces in houses and basements in the Pokrovsk direction.

Geopolitical Developments

The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses."
Only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue, stated the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko.
A TASS report states that an agreement between Russia and Iran includes aspects of defense and security.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support and that its accession to the EU would pose a significant threat to the European economy and agriculture.
President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, states that the Panama Canal belongs to Panama and will remain under Panamanian control.
Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament to discuss continued support for Ukraine, the preparation of a new EU sanctions package, the strengthening of military-technical cooperation, and joint projects in the defense industry.
Supporters of Donald Trump gathered near the Capitol to show their support. The center of Washington is cordoned off by police and the National Guard.
Donald Trump has stated his intention to pardon many of those convicted for participating in the storming of the Capitol.
The US Senate confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.
Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel, according to media reports.
Zelensky is ready for a deal to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, said Donald Trump.
Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
Senator Marco Rubio was officially approved as head of the US State Department.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
Donald Trump, in the Oval Office, told reporters that he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin after the relevant negotiations are established, adding that the process is already underway. He also expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
Donald Trump began the first day of his presidency by signing decrees on energy, immigration policy, and national security, canceling a number of decisions of the Joe Biden administration. Among Trump's first presidential decrees are the introduction of a state of emergency in the US energy sector, the decision for the US to again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, the pardon of those convicted for the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the unblocking of the social network TikTok for 75 days, and the creation of the "Department of Government Efficiency."
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table. He also called for increased recruitment of volunteers into the French army.
Russia expects that Trump and the leadership of Panama, during discussions, will respect the current international legal regime of the Panama Canal, stated Ryabkov to TASS.
The flag above the US Embassy in Moscow was raised by order of Trump.
Trump has suspended US aid to other countries for 90 days to conduct checks to determine whether they are in line with his political goals.
Armenia has no intention of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as participation in the organization provides economic benefits, stated the Speaker of the Parliament, Alen Simonyan.
BRICS is strong enough to withstand the threats of the new US President, stated the Russian Ambassador to Indonesia.
Putin and Xi Jinping held a video conference. This is their second contact in the last few days.
The Russian Foreign Ministry reports that Russia and China have reached an unprecedented level of relations and are ready to cooperate to create a more just multipolar world order.
Negotiations between Putin and Xi Jinping are ongoing, Peskov told TASS.
Lavrov will meet with the State Duma Committee on International Affairs before the government hour with the participation of the Minister, stated the head of the committee, Leonid Slutsky, to TASS.
The State Duma is considering imposing harsher penalties for extremism, with criminal liability potentially applying even for first-time offenses committed online, possibly leading to up to five years in prison.
The Russian Ministry of Justice's proposal to toughen penalties for "extremism" has been approved by the government commission.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years, according to The Telegraph.
Lavrov is visiting Armenia.
US President Trump signed a decree to reinstate the death penalty at the federal level in the US and ordered all states to be provided with a sufficient amount of the drug for lethal injections.
New: On the US border, migrants are no longer allowed to enter. Immediately after taking the oath, Donald Trump ordered the shutdown of the CBP One border crossing application, which allowed migrants to legally enter the United States and obtain work permits.
New: Putin and Си Цзиньпин had an extensive and friendly conversation, which lasted 1 hour 35 minutes, Ushakov said. Putin and Си Цзиньпин discussed the situation around Ukraine and the countries' relations with the United States, taking into account Trump's coming to power, said the assistant to the President of the Russian Federation.
New: Negotiations with the United States will take place when the Trump administration receives appropriate signals, said the aide to the Russian president.
New: China invited Putin to celebrate in Beijing in September 2025 the 80th anniversary of the victory over Japan and the end of World War II, Ushakov said.
New: A Ukrainian parliament member from the "Servant of the People" party, Ruslan Horbenko, stated that Ukraine may lose the Donetsk region by the end of 2027 if the level of support from partners remains the same. He also mentioned that Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions could be under threat if the pace of the enemy's advance does not change.
New: Ukrainian and US officials are reportedly planning to hold talks in early February during a "Ukrainian Week" event in Washington, D.C. The leader of the "Servant of the People" faction, Davyd Arakhamia, stated that these talks will involve discussions with the new Trump team.
New: A phone call between Zelensky and Trump may take place within a week, according to Ukrainian sources.
New: EU will continue economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region remains the focal point of intense fighting, with Russian forces making incremental gains around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk is particularly critical, with unconfirmed reports suggesting a complete Russian victory. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the ongoing drone warfare, including attacks deep inside Russia, further complicate the situation. The potential meeting between Trump and Putin adds another layer of uncertainty to the conflict's future. Ukrainian forces continue to resist, inflicting significant losses on Russian troops and equipment, but the overall situation remains challenging. The reported Ukrainian losses of 1690 personnel, 10 tanks, 42 armored vehicles, 19 artillery systems, 3 air defense systems, 153 UAVs, 87 vehicles, and 6 units of special equipment highlight the intensity of the fighting. The reported destruction of Ukrainian air defense systems (two Buk-M3 and two Tor-M2) in the south is also a significant development. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, as reported by South Korean intelligence and Ukrainian sources, adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of foreign involvement on the Russian side. The geopolitical developments, particularly the comments from the Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker, highlight the increasingly complex international landscape surrounding the conflict. The new reports of drone movements, especially in the Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Sumy regions, indicate a continued threat to these areas. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts highlight the ongoing danger posed by these drones. The new reports about Putin's conversation with Xi Jinping and his potential meeting with Trump, as well as China's invitation to Putin to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the victory over Japan, are significant geopolitical developments. The new statements from Ukrainian officials about potential territorial losses and upcoming talks with the Trump team underscore the urgency and uncertainty facing Ukraine. The reported repelling of a major Russian assault in the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces, particularly the 47th Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, is a significant tactical victory for Ukraine. This successful defense, involving the destruction of numerous enemy vehicles and personnel, demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces in utilizing combined arms tactics, particularly the integration of artillery, infantry, and drones. The renewed heavy shelling of Kupiansk and the reported worsening security situation there are concerning developments. The use of various weapons, including drones and multiple rocket launchers, highlights the intensity of the Russian attacks in the area.

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Urgently deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. Given the unconfirmed reports of a Russian victory in Toretsk, a thorough assessment of the situation on the ground is needed before determining the appropriate course of action. If Toretsk has indeed fallen, focus should shift to reinforcing Pokrovsk and establishing new defensive lines.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts.
Secure Critical Infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities and gas storage facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents.
Strengthen International Support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
Counter Russian Information Operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public.
Address the Situation in Kursk: Given the significant losses and stalled counteroffensive, reassess the strategy in the Kursk region. Consider redeploying forces to more critical areas if necessary.
Verify North Korean Involvement: Investigate the reports of captured North Korean soldiers and gather intelligence on the extent of North Korean involvement in the conflict.
Prepare for Increased Missile Attacks: Enhance air defense systems and early warning capabilities to counter the threat of Russian ballistic and cruise missile attacks.
Address the Psychological Impact on Children: Develop programs and initiatives to address the psychological impact of the conflict on children, particularly in areas close to the front lines.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media, as well as the reported issues with Russian logistics and vehicle maintenance.
Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Given the reported shift in Russian tactics to using larger groups for assaults in the Kursk region, adjust Ukrainian defenses accordingly. Deploy additional infantry units, anti-tank weapons, and machine gun nests to counter these massed attacks. Utilize artillery and HIMARS to target troop concentrations and disrupt Russian advances.
Stabilize the Front: Address the issues highlighted regarding the difficulties in stabilizing the front. Improve coordination between units, particularly the newly formed brigades, and ensure that defensive positions are strategically advantageous.
Protect Civilian Infrastructure: Given the repeated targeting of civilian infrastructure, enhance measures to protect these areas. Deploy additional air defense systems around major cities and critical infrastructure to mitigate the impact of Russian airstrikes and drone attacks.
Increase Diplomatic Efforts: Continue engaging with international partners to secure additional military and financial aid. Highlight the need for advanced weaponry, particularly air defense systems, to counter Russian air superiority and protect civilian populations.
Enhance Reconnaissance and Intelligence: Improve reconnaissance capabilities to better anticipate Russian movements and intentions. Utilize drones and other surveillance technologies to monitor enemy positions and movements, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
Address Logistical Challenges: Ensure that supply lines remain open and secure, particularly for fuel, ammunition, and medical supplies. Address the reported issues with vehicle maintenance and repair.
Address the Desertion Crisis: Investigate the reasons behind the high desertion rates and take immediate steps to address the underlying issues. This may involve improving conditions for soldiers, addressing morale problems, and ensuring effective leadership.
Improve Communication and Training: Address the captured soldier's concerns about poor communication and training within the Ukrainian military. Implement measures to improve communication channels and provide better training to soldiers, particularly new recruits.
Counter the Drone Threat: Develop strategies to counter drone attacks on Russian territory and protect Ukrainian territory from similar attacks. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems, improving early warning capabilities, and enhancing electronic warfare capabilities to jam or intercept incoming drones.
Prepare for Further Drone Attacks: Given the continued drone activity across multiple regions in Ukraine and the new attacks on Engels, maintain a high level of readiness and ensure that air defense systems are operational and prepared to engage incoming drones.
Enhance Cooperation with International Partners: Share information about the drone attacks with international partners and seek their assistance in developing counter-drone technologies and strategies.
Diplomatic Pressure: Increase diplomatic efforts to highlight the complexities of the conflict and the need for a balanced approach.
Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity: Maintain vigilance and continue to monitor drone activity across all regions. Ensure that air defense systems are on high alert and prepared to engage incoming drones.
Address the Drone Threat in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk: Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones. Issue public alerts and ensure that civilians are aware of the threat and know how to respond.
Monitor North Korean Missile Tests: Pay close attention to North Korea's missile tests and assess their potential impact on the conflict in Ukraine. Coordinate with South Korea and other allies to monitor the situation and develop appropriate responses.
Assess US Political Developments: Analyze the potential implications of the proposed bill to "buy Greenland" and its impact on US foreign policy and strategic interests. Consider how this move might affect US-Russia relations and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Develop a Strategy to Counter Iran's Drone Capabilities: Given the reported advancements in Iran's drone technology, develop a comprehensive strategy to counter this threat. This could involve diplomatic efforts to prevent the transfer of these drones to Russia, as well as enhancing Ukraine's own drone and counter-drone capabilities.
Prepare for Potential Escalation near Velyka Novoselka: Reinforce Ukrainian positions in the area and prepare for a possible Russian offensive. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and artillery to the region and develop contingency plans for responding to a Russian breakthrough.
Respond to the Attacks on Engels and Kazan: Investigate the attacks on Engels and the reported fire at the "Orgsintez" plant in Kazan. Determine the extent of the damage and assess the impact on Russian military and industrial capabilities. Develop strategies to counter similar attacks in the future and enhance the protection of critical infrastructure.
Address the Humanitarian Situation: Given the reports of civilian casualties from Ukrainian attacks, provide necessary assistance to affected populations and ensure the protection of civilians in conflict zones.
Counter Drone Attacks on Russian Airports: Develop strategies to counter these attacks and protect civilian air travel. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems around airports, improving early warning capabilities, and enhancing electronic warfare capabilities to jam or intercept incoming drones.
Support the EU's Ban on Russian Gas Imports: Work with countries to develop a coordinated strategy for reducing reliance on Russian energy. Explore alternative sources of gas and accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources.
Monitor the Situation in Vasylkiv: Gather intelligence on the extent of the damage and assess any potential impact on Ukrainian air operations. Deploy additional air defense systems to the area to protect against further attacks.
Analyze the Strategic Partnership between Armenia and the US: Assess the potential implications of the strategic partnership document to be signed between Armenia and the US. Consider how this agreement might affect the regional balance of power and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Prepare for Further Attacks on Engels: Reinforce defenses around the city and the industrial facility. Deploy additional air defense systems, improve early warning capabilities, and enhance electronic warfare capabilities to jam or intercept incoming drones.
Exploit Ukrainian Military Information: Utilize the information provided by the Ukrainian General Staff regarding enemy losses to inform strategic decisions. Assess the impact of these losses on the enemy's combat capabilities and adjust Ukrainian strategies accordingly.
Analyze Russian Claims: Scrutinize the claims made by Russian military sources, such as the advance in the Petrovske area and the introduction of the new ZALA "Lancet" launch

Situation Report