Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 21, 2025, 07:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have made significant advances, capturing several key locations and severely impacting Ukrainian logistics and defenses. The capture of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant is a new significant development.

Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kursk region have stalled, with Russian forces making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and capturing several settlements. Drone warfare is intensifying, with reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions, including deep inside Russian territory. Notably, Smolensk is under a sustained drone attack, with reports of an attack on an aviation plant.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out. Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka. Three combat clashes are still ongoing. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. The basements and workshops of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar, which had come under the control of the Russian military, have been completely cleared, according to a Russian soldier with the call sign "Chukcha." He also noted that "currently, soldiers of the 98th Airborne Division are developing their success, actively advancing also in the residential areas to the southwest of the plant."
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city and 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city. Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka. Russian forces have cut the penultimate railway line to Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces report making efforts to prevent the loss of Pokrovsk. On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near several settlements. Five clashes are ongoing. Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded, three vehicles destroyed, and one antenna of a UAV, with two additional vehicles significantly damaged. The city hospital of Pokrovsk is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih. Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city. Reports indicate the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" may cease operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have defeated Ukrainian HIMARS in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, specifically south of Petropavlivka, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank of Kurakhovo. Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
• Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle the city, establishing positions in the northeast and southeast. Ukrainian sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around the city. The last road supplying the city is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka. On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attacked 19 times near Velyka Novosilka. The situation is described as extremely difficult, with Russian forces closing in from three directions. Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces report advances in Dmytriv, Urozhaine, Novosergiyivka, Slovyanka, and Yasenove. The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Video evidence shows Russian forces continuing to advance in Chasiv Yar, dislodging the enemy from their positions. Tactical successes are reported, with the 200th Brigade pushing the enemy out of the "Десятый" microdistrict and currently liberating the "Новосеверный" microdistrict. Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
• Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone, with Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions. The number of casualties has increased to eight, including two children. Reports indicate the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk is partially without power due to an emergency shutdown, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city.
• Other Areas: Video evidence shows a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne with a "Krasnopol" guided projectile. Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction with a "KUB" guided munition. A TASS report states that a Russian strike on the "Luch" design bureau in Kyiv may have eliminated foreign specialists servicing HIMARS MLRS. The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated several settlements and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka. Russian forces report capturing Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Russian forces launched a new attack near Nikolskoye, advancing over 1.5 km.
• Intense Fighting: Reports indicate an impending decisive battle, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Active fighting is ongoing. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
• Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties.
• Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
• North Korean Involvement: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled. An image from "STERNENKO" shows a wanted poster for three North Korean soldiers accused of killing five Russian marines in the Kursk region on January 13, 2025. Ukrainian paratroopers report the capture of a North Korean soldier.

Kharkiv Region

• Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne, Hlushkivka, Shyykivka, and Borivsk Andriyivka.
• Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in the western and central parts of Kharkiv region, heading west. Drones are also reported north of Kharkiv, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava regions, heading west.
• Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km. Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk. Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. Russian forces have expanded their control zone to Belohorivka on the Krasnolimanske direction. Fighting is ongoing on its outskirts. They are also advancing northwest of Ivanivka towards Kolodyazne. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka. Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region. Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.
• Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.
• New Report: Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka in the LPR.
• New Report: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that units of the "West" group have liberated Novoyehorivka in the LPR.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south. Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov. A map of air raid alerts shows that air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine. Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of drones: in the northern part of Zhytomyr region heading west, in the southern part of Vinnytsia region heading west, in the northeastern part of Chernihiv region heading east, in the northern part of Cherkasy region heading southwest, in the northern part of Poltava region heading west, and moving from Sumy region towards Chernihiv region. New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones: in the southern part of the Kiev region towards Vinnitsa, from Sumy region towards Poltava, in the northern part of Poltava region in a westerly direction, in the eastern and south-eastern parts of Kharkov region in a westerly direction, in the northern part of Kherson region in the direction of Nikolaev/Dnepropetrovsk. One drone is reported flying near Balovnoe, one is flying near Bereznegovatoe, two are flying near Krivoy Rog, one is flying near Pereyaslav, and one is flying north of Kupyansk. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones from Mykolaiv region towards Odesa, in the eastern part of Kyiv region with a western course, in the northern part of Poltava region with a western course, on the border of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad regions with a northern course, in the eastern part of Kharkiv region constantly changing course, and south of Zaporizhzhia with a south-western course. An air raid alert has been announced in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare.
• Smolensk Under Attack: Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported. Preliminary reports indicate the target is the Yartsevo oil refinery. Russian air defenses are reportedly active. One drone allegedly hit the roof of a residential building, with no reported casualties. There are new reports of a series of explosions in Smolensk. At least 5 explosions were reported. Air defense systems are actively operating in the area. Reports of power and water outages in several buildings in Smolensk following the drone attack. A fire was reported at a military factory in Smolensk. Pro-Ukrainian sources claim the attacks in Smolensk are going according to plan. In Smolensk, the attack of the UAV was repulsed. There is damage to the roof of residential buildings after the fall of downed drones. There were no reports of casualties. Debris from a downed drone has been found in a residential area of Smolensk. Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant, which manufactures military aircraft, including Su-25 attack aircraft.
• Zaporizhzhia Region: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.

Geopolitical Developments

• The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
• The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses."
• Only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue, stated the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko.
• A TASS report states that an agreement between Russia and Iran includes aspects of defense and security.
• A TASS report states that Orban believes that once the conflict in Ukraine is over, sanctions against Russia will be "thrown out the window" and the West will establish normal relations with Russia.
• Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
• Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support and that its accession to the EU would pose a significant threat to the European economy and agriculture.
• President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, states that the Panama Canal belongs to Panama and will remain under Panamanian control.
• Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament to discuss continued support for Ukraine, the preparation of a new EU sanctions package, the strengthening of military-technical cooperation, and joint projects in the defense industry. Zelensky also noted Lithuania's leadership in advocating for Ukraine on its path to the European Union and NATO.
• Ukrainian forces report a successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system using an FPV drone.
• Supporters of Donald Trump gathered near the Capitol to show their support. The center of Washington is cordoned off by police and the National Guard.
• Donald Trump has stated his intention to pardon many of those convicted for participating in the storming of the Capitol.
• The US Senate confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.
• Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel, according to media reports.
• Zelensky is ready for a deal to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, said Donald Trump.
• Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
• Senator Marco Rubio was officially approved as head of the US State Department.
• Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
• Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
• Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
• Donald Trump, in the Oval Office, told reporters that he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin after the relevant negotiations are established, adding that the process is already underway. He also expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Recalling his statements as a presidential candidate that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office, Trump noted that he still has half a day to achieve the goal.
• Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
• Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
• Donald Trump began the first day of his presidency by signing decrees on energy, immigration policy, and national security, canceling a number of decisions of the Joe Biden administration. These documents do not require the approval of Congress, so they can be quickly implemented. Among Trump's first presidential decrees are the introduction of a state of emergency in the US energy sector, the decision for the US to again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, the pardon of those convicted for the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the unblocking of the social network TikTok for 75 days, and the creation of the "Department of Government Efficiency" headed by Trump adviser Elon Musk.
• The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
• French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table. He also called for increased recruitment of volunteers into the French army.
• Russia expects that Trump and the leadership of Panama, during discussions, will respect the current international legal regime of the Panama Canal, stated Ryabkov to TASS. Russia assumes that the international legal regime of the Panama Canal is clearly defined in the 1977 agreement between the USA and Panama, Ryabkov noted.
• The flag above the US Embassy in Moscow was raised by order of Trump. Previously, it was lowered in memory of Jimmy Carter by order of Biden. Video: Pavel Tsukanov/TASS.

Changes compared to the previous 6 hours

• Donetsk Region: Continued fighting in Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. New reports of fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka. Continued fighting in Zverevo. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have defeated Ukrainian HIMARS in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. The basements and workshops of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar have been completely cleared.
• Kursk Region: Continued Russian advances and new video evidence of fighting. Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes and casualties. A new Russian attack near Nikolskoye resulted in an advance of over 1.5 km.
• Luhansk Region: Further Russian advances reported. The Russian army is expanding its bridgeheads on the right bank of the Zherebets River in Ivanovka and on the right bank of the Oskol River in Dvurichna. Russian units are also advancing near Terny on the left bank of the Zherebets. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that units of the "West" group have liberated Novoyehorivka in the LPR.
• Drone Warfare: Continued widespread drone activity, with new reports of drones in various regions. New reports on the movement of "Shahed" drones. Smolensk is under a sustained drone attack, with multiple explosions reported and air defenses active. New reports of a series of explosions, power and water outages, and a fire at a military factory in Smolensk. New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones: in the southern part of the Kiev region towards Vinnitsa, from Sumy region towards Poltava, in the northern part of Poltava region in a westerly direction, in the eastern and south-eastern parts of Kharkov region in a westerly direction, in the northern part of Kherson region in the direction of Nikolaev/Dnepropetrovsk. One drone is reported flying near Balovnoe, one is flying near Bereznegovatoe, two are flying near Krivoy Rog, one is flying near Pereyaslav, and one is flying north of Kupyansk. Debris from a downed drone has been found in a residential area of Smolensk. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones from Mykolaiv region towards Odesa, in the eastern part of Kyiv region with a western course, in the northern part of Poltava region with a western course, on the border of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad regions with a northern course, in the eastern part of Kharkiv region constantly changing course, and south of Zaporizhzhia with a south-western course. An air raid alert has been announced in the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant.
• Geopolitical Developments: New statements from the US State Department, the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, and the President of Panama. Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament. Reports of Trump supporters gathering near the Capitol and Trump's intention to pardon those convicted for the Capitol riot. The US Senate confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Reports that Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel. Zelensky is ready for a deal to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, said Donald Trump. Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war. Senator Marco Rubio was officially approved as head of the US State Department. Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date. Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok. Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government. Donald Trump, in the Oval Office, told reporters that he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin after the relevant negotiations are established, adding that the process is already underway. He also expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war. The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement. Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine. Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants. Donald Trump began the first day of his presidency by signing decrees on energy, immigration policy, and national security, canceling a number of decisions of the Joe Biden administration. Among Trump's first presidential decrees are the introduction of a state of emergency in the US energy sector, the decision for the US to once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, the pardon of those convicted for the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the unblocking of the social network TikTok for 75 days, and the creation of the "Department of Government Efficiency." French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table. He also called for increased recruitment of volunteers into the French army. Russia expects that Trump and the leadership of Panama, during discussions, will respect the current international legal regime of the Panama Canal, stated Ryabkov to TASS. The flag above the US Embassy in Moscow was raised by order of Trump.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to make significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with the city almost entirely under Russian control. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stalled, and Russian forces continue to advance, including a new attack near Nikolskoye. Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with ongoing attacks across multiple regions and a new, sustained attack on Smolensk. The new reports of drone movements, especially in the Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Sumy regions, indicate a continued threat to these areas. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts highlight the ongoing danger posed by these drones. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, as reported by South Korean intelligence and Ukrainian sources, adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of foreign involvement on the Russian side. The geopolitical developments, particularly the comments from the Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker, highlight the complex international landscape surrounding the conflict. The meeting between Zelensky and the Lithuanian parliament speaker underscores the ongoing diplomatic efforts to support Ukraine and strengthen its position in the international arena. The drone attack on Smolensk marks a significant escalation, with reports of multiple explosions and active air defenses, indicating a potential shift in the targeting of strategic locations deep inside Russian territory. The new reports of a series of explosions, power and water outages, and a fire at a military factory in Smolensk further emphasize the intensity of the attack and its potential impact on Russian infrastructure. The gathering of Trump supporters near the Capitol and his intention to pardon those convicted for the Capitol riot add a new layer of complexity to the US political landscape, which could have indirect implications for US foreign policy and support for Ukraine. The confirmation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and reports that Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel further complicate the geopolitical situation. The new statements from Donald Trump regarding his intention to meet with Vladimir Putin and his claim that the US has a right to half of TikTok, along with his decree to create a new government structure headed by Elon Musk, add further complexity to the US political landscape and its potential impact on the conflict. The US exit from the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as Trump's signing of a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days, directly affect Ukraine. His decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants adds another layer of complexity. Among Trump's first presidential decrees are the introduction of a state of emergency in the US energy sector, the decision for the US to once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, the pardon of those convicted for storming the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the unblocking of the social network TikTok for 75 days, and the creation of the "Department of Government Efficiency." French President Macron's statement that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table, along with his call for increased recruitment of volunteers into the French army, further complicates the situation. The new messages add several important updates to the current situation:

New Military Updates

• Drone Attacks on Smolensk Aviation Plant: Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant, which manufactures military aircraft, including Su-25 attack aircraft. This attack indicates Ukraine's continued capability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory and target military production facilities.
• Russian Advances in Donetsk and Luhansk: Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with reports of heavy fighting and new territorial gains. The capture of Zelenyi Hai and the expansion of control zones near Ivanivka and Terny are particularly significant.
• Drone Warfare: The downing of 55 Russian drones overnight, with targets including an oil depot in Liski and the Smolensk Aviation Plant, demonstrates the ongoing intensity of drone warfare. The use of drones by both sides continues to be a defining feature of the conflict.

Geopolitical Updates

• Trump's Statements on Ending the War: US President Donald Trump's statement about ending the war in Ukraine "as quickly as possible" and his suggestion that both Ukraine and Russia need to make concessions indicate a potential shift in US policy. His planned meeting with Putin adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
• Marco Rubio's Confirmation as Secretary of State: The confirmation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and his call for concessions from both Ukraine and Russia further emphasize the changing US stance on the conflict.
• Suspension of US Aid to Foreign Countries: Trump's decision to suspend all programs of support for foreign countries for 90 days, including Ukraine, will have a significant impact on Ukraine's ability to continue the war effort. This move could potentially force Ukraine to the negotiating table.

Other Updates

• Increased Demand for Psychologists in Moscow: The reported increase in demand for psychologists in Moscow suggests a growing mental health impact of the conflict on the Russian population.
• Casualties from Drone Attack in Belgorod Region: The report of two civilians injured by a drone attack in the Belgorod region highlights the ongoing risk to civilian populations in border areas.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The continued Russian advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, particularly the capture of Zelenyi Hai and the expansion of control zones near Ivanivka and Terny, represent significant tactical victories for Russia. The intensification of drone warfare, with Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory and the downing of numerous Russian drones, demonstrates the evolving nature of the conflict and the increasing importance of air defense capabilities. The new video evidence of a successful Ukrainian sniper operation near Toretsk highlights the ongoing close-quarters fighting in the Donetsk region and the effectiveness of Ukrainian special operations forces. The video from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" showing unidentified aerial activity and explosions, coupled with the mocking caption, adds to the ongoing information war and highlights the use of propaganda and disinformation by both sides.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with Trump's statements and actions signaling a potential shift in US policy towards the conflict. The suspension of US aid to foreign countries, including Ukraine, will have a major impact on Ukraine's ability to sustain its war effort and could potentially force it to negotiate with Russia on unfavorable terms. The confirmation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and his call for concessions from both sides further reinforces this potential shift.

The reported increase in demand for psychologists in Moscow and the casualties from drone attacks in border regions highlight the human cost of the conflict on both sides.

Overall, the new information suggests that the conflict in Ukraine is entering a new phase, with increased pressure on Ukraine to negotiate and a potential shift in the balance of power in favor of Russia. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict. The new message from Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, provides important updates on the situation in the Kharkiv region:

• Drone Attacks: Reports of drone attacks in various locations, including the discovery of an unexploded "Molniya-1" drone in Kharkiv and damage to a utility building in Osinovo, indicate continued Russian drone activity in the region.
• Shelling and Airstrikes: Reports of shelling and airstrikes in multiple locations, including the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs), highlight the ongoing intensity of the conflict in the Kharkiv region.
• Casualties and Damage: The report of two police officers injured and damage to a police vehicle in Osinovo, as well as the destruction of a private house in Shiykovka, underscore the human and material cost of the conflict.
• Fighting Near Vovchansk: The report of two combat clashes with Russian forces near Vovchansk indicates continued fighting in this area.
• Evacuations: The evacuation of 84 people, including 12 children, from dangerous areas highlights the ongoing impact of the conflict on civilian populations.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The continued Russian advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, particularly the capture of Zelenyi Hai and the expansion of control zones near Ivanivka and Terny, represent significant tactical victories for Russia. The intensification of drone warfare, with Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory and the downing of numerous Russian drones, demonstrates the evolving nature of the conflict and the increasing importance of air defense capabilities. The new video evidence of a successful Ukrainian sniper operation near Toretsk highlights the ongoing close-quarters fighting in the Donetsk region and the effectiveness of Ukrainian special operations forces. The video from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" showing unidentified aerial activity and explosions, coupled with the mocking caption, adds to the ongoing information war and highlights the use of propaganda and disinformation by both sides. The new message from Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, provides important updates on the situation in the Kharkiv region, including reports of drone attacks, shelling, airstrikes, casualties, and evacuations.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with Trump's statements and actions signaling a potential shift in US policy towards the conflict. The suspension of US aid to foreign countries, including Ukraine, will have a major impact on Ukraine's ability to sustain its war effort and could potentially force it to negotiate with Russia on unfavorable terms. The confirmation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and his call for concessions from both sides further reinforces this potential shift.

The reported increase in demand for psychologists in Moscow and the casualties from drone attacks in border regions highlight the human cost of the conflict on both sides.

Overall, the new information suggests that the conflict in Ukraine is entering a new phase, with increased pressure on Ukraine to negotiate and a potential shift in the balance of power in favor of Russia. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict.