Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 20, 2025, 23:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk region. Russian forces have captured several key locations, severely impacting Ukrainian logistics and defenses. The situation in Toretsk is particularly dire for Ukrainian forces. The encirclement of Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka is a significant threat. Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kursk region have stalled, with Russian forces making a 10-kilometer breakthrough. Drone warfare is intensifying, with reports of attacks deep inside Russian territory, particularly in Smolensk. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new drone activity across multiple oblasts. A new series of drone attacks has been reported in Smolensk, with at least five explosions reported and air defense systems active. There are reports of power and water outages in parts of Smolensk following the attacks, and a fire at a military factory. Pro-Ukrainian sources claim that the attacks in Smolensk are going according to plan.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are nearing collapse, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka. Three combat clashes are still ongoing. Video evidence shows a sniper pair from the 2nd Mechanized Battalion of the 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade simultaneously killing two Russian infantrymen near Toretsk. Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk, engaging in close-quarters combat. Video evidence shows that "protective blankets" used by Ukrainian forces are ineffective against Russian drones.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city and 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city. The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of key supply lines significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement. Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka. Russian forces have cut the penultimate railway line to Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces are making efforts to prevent the loss of Pokrovsk, but the speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies the city is under threat of encirclement. Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank. On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near several settlements. Five clashes are ongoing. Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded, three vehicles destroyed, and one antenna of a UAV, with two additional vehicles significantly damaged. The city hospital of Pokrovsk is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih. A video shows multiple missile trails and reports that Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city. Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk. Reports of the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" potentially ceasing operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine. A photo message shows that "liberated" Pokrovsk now looks like this.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno. Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the area with FPV drones. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, specifically south of Petropavlivka, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank of Kurakhovo. Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne. Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle the city, establishing positions in the northeast and southeast. Ukrainian sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around the city. The last road supplying the city is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka. Russian forces are attacking in the area of the milk factory, gas station, dormitory and airfield. On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attacked 19 times near Velyka Novosilka. The situation for the Ukrainian forces is described as extremely difficult, with Russian forces closing in from three directions. Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. A message reports that Russian forces are continuing their offensive to liberate Velyka Novosilka, having established positions on the northeastern and southeastern parts of the city. Russian forces report advances in Dmytriv, Urozhaine, Novosergiyivka, Slovyanka, and Yasenove. Video evidence purports to show the 40th Separate Brigade of the Ukrainian Coastal Defense Forces effectively engaging Russian targets with drones. The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Video evidence shows Russian forces continuing to advance in Chasiv Yar, dislodging the enemy from their positions. Tactical successes are reported, with the 200th Brigade pushing the enemy out of the "Десятый" microdistrict and currently liberating the "Новосеверный" microdistrict. Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant. Video shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. They are also making progress in a nearby forest.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone, with Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions. The number of casualties has increased to eight, including two children. Reports of the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk being partially without power due to an emergency shutdown, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city.
Other Areas: Video evidence shows a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne with a "Krasnopol" guided projectile. Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction with a "KUB" guided munition. A TASS report states that a Russian strike on the "Luch" design bureau in Kyiv may have eliminated foreign specialists servicing HIMARS MLRS. Photos show the detention of a lawyer accused of recruiting agents for Russian intelligence. A video shows the daily lives of Ukrainian soldiers, including food preparation and drone operations. Video evidence shows soldiers of the 77th Airmobile Brigade using drones to dismantle enemy shelters and infantry. The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully. Ukrainian defenses are built around mine waste heaps. Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs against these positions and drone control points. Fighting is ongoing in the landings near the city dump to the northwest.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated several settlements and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka. Russian forces report capturing Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
Intense Fighting: Reports indicate an impending decisive battle, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Active fighting is ongoing, with reports of a slow push by Russian forces near Kruglенькое, a lull in fighting in Staraya/Novaya Sorochina and Pogrebki, a repelled Russian assault near Viktorivka, and an impending decisive battle. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Drone Warfare: South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed in the region. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
North Korean Involvement: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled. An image from "STERNENKO" shows a wanted poster for three North Korean soldiers accused of killing five Russian marines in the Kursk region on January 13, 2025.

Kharkiv Region

Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne, Hlushkivka, Shyykivka, and Borivsk Andriyivka.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in the western and central parts of Kharkiv region, heading west. Drones are also reported north of Kharkiv, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava regions, heading west.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack. Explosions are reported in the Kharkiv area, likely outside the city.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km. Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk, according to the head of the Kupyansk Regional State Administration. Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region. A message from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that the Russian army is developing success near Kupyansk, threatening to collapse the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The situation near Ivanovka is reportedly deteriorating, with Russian forces continuing to advance and consolidate their positions. A video from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" shows Russian forces conducting reconnaissance near Ivanovka using a drone with thermal imaging.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. A message reports that Russian forces have expanded their control zone to Belohorivka on the Krasnolimanske direction. Fighting is ongoing on its outskirts. They are also advancing northwest of Ivanivka towards Kolodyazne. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka. Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region. Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.
Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions. Drones are reported north of Kamyanske in Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading west. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south. Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov. A map of air raid alerts shows that air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine. Video evidence shows the moment of today's drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region. Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare. Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya-2" drones equipped with TM-62M anti-tank mines for targeted strikes.
Smolensk Under Attack: Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported. Preliminary reports indicate the target is the Yartsevo oil refinery. Russian air defenses are reportedly active. One drone allegedly hit the roof of a residential building, with no reported casualties. Video evidence shows a series of explosions in Smolensk on the backdrop of a drone attack. The target of the drones was likely the Smolensk oil refinery Yartsevo. Air defense systems are reportedly operating in the area. Video evidence shows air defense systems operating in Smolensk. Video evidence shows a heavy vehicle moving on a snowy road at night in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a nighttime scene in a wooded area with the sound of a distant vehicle, potentially in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a pixelated surveillance camera feed from an unknown location within the Smolensk Oblast. Video evidence shows a heavy vehicle driving on a snowy or icy road at night, potentially in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a nighttime cityscape with explosions, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows air defense systems operating in Smolensk. Video evidence from a thermal camera shows drones targeting and destroying enemy equipment, potentially in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a residential building at night, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows an urban environment at night with a plume of smoke, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows a nighttime scene with a fire or explosion, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows a nighttime cityscape with a bright aerial object followed by a streak in the sky, potentially a missile launch or inbound munition near Smolensk. Video evidence shows a quiet urban scene at night, potentially near Smolensk. There are new reports of a series of explosions in Smolensk. At least 5 explosions were reported. Air defense systems are actively operating in the area. Reports of power and water outages in several buildings in Smolensk following the drone attack. A fire was reported at a military factory in Smolensk. Pro-Ukrainian sources claim the attacks in Smolensk are going according to plan.
Zaporizhzhia Region: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting and destroying a Russian "TOR-M2" air defense system in the Zaporizhzhia region. A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.

Geopolitical Developments

The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses."
Only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue, stated the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko.
A TASS report states that an agreement between Russia and Iran includes aspects of defense and security.
A TASS report states that Orban believes that once the conflict in Ukraine is over, sanctions against Russia will be "thrown out the window" and the West will establish normal relations with Russia.
Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support and that its accession to the EU would pose a significant threat to the European economy and agriculture.
President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, states that the Panama Canal belongs to Panama and will remain under Panamanian control.
Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament to discuss continued support for Ukraine, the preparation of a new EU sanctions package, the strengthening of military-technical cooperation, and joint projects in the defense industry. Zelensky also noted Lithuania's leadership in advocating for Ukraine on its path to the European Union and NATO.
Ukrainian forces report a successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system using an FPV drone. Video evidence shows the drone targeting the TOR-M2 on the territory of the "Belgorod People's Republic" (BNR), specifically hitting the radar module. The video also shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian logistics.
Supporters of Donald Trump gathered near the Capitol to show their support. The center of Washington is cordoned off by police and the National Guard.
Donald Trump has stated his intention to pardon many of those convicted for participating in the storming of the Capitol.

Changes compared to the previous 6 hours:

Donetsk Region: Continued fighting in Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. New reports of fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka. Continued fighting in Zverevo.
Kursk Region: Continued Russian advances and new video evidence of fighting. Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes and casualties.
Luhansk Region: Further Russian advances reported.
Drone Warfare: Continued widespread drone activity, with new reports of drones in various regions. New reports on the movement of "Shahed" drones. Smolensk is under a sustained drone attack, with multiple explosions reported and air defenses active. New reports of a series of explosions, power and water outages, and a fire at a military factory in Smolensk.
Geopolitical Developments: New statements from the US State Department, the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, and the President of Panama. Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament. Reports of Trump supporters gathering near the Capitol and Trump's intention to pardon those convicted for the Capitol riot.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to make significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stalled, and Russian forces continue to advance. Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with ongoing attacks across multiple regions and a new, sustained attack on Smolensk. The new reports of drone movements, especially in the Kharkiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, indicate a continued threat to these areas. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts highlight the ongoing danger posed by these drones. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, as reported by South Korean intelligence and Ukrainian sources, adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of foreign involvement on the Russian side. The geopolitical developments, particularly the comments from the Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker, highlight the complex international landscape surrounding the conflict. The meeting between Zelensky and the Lithuanian parliament speaker underscores the ongoing diplomatic efforts to support Ukraine and strengthen its position in the international arena. The drone attack on Smolensk marks a significant escalation, with reports of multiple explosions and active air defenses, indicating a potential shift in the targeting of strategic locations deep inside Russian territory. The new reports of a series of explosions, power and water outages, and a fire at a military factory in Smolensk further emphasize the intensity of the attack and its potential impact on Russian infrastructure. The gathering of Trump supporters near the Capitol and his intention to pardon those convicted for the Capitol riot add a new layer of complexity to the US political landscape, which could have indirect implications for US foreign policy and support for Ukraine.

Situation Report