Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 20, 2025, 22:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting continuing across multiple fronts. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have secured key locations and continue to advance, putting significant pressure on Ukrainian defenses. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian forces are utilizing drones to target Russian oil depots and military infrastructure, while Russian forces are employing a new tactic of deploying soldiers as bait for Ukrainian drones.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical. Russian forces have captured a significant part of the city, including the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), and are pushing Ukrainian troops out of Petrivka.
  • Video evidence shows a sniper pair from the 2nd Mechanized Battalion of the 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade simultaneously killing two Russian infantrymen near Toretsk.
  • Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk, engaging in close-quarters combat.
  • Video evidence shows that "protective blankets" used by Ukrainian forces are ineffective against Russian drones.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, with intense fighting reported on the outskirts. They have reportedly come within 3 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and cut off one of the two main routes from Pokrovsk to Dnipro.
  • A video shows multiple missile trails and reports that Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk.
  • Reports of the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" potentially ceasing operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine.
  • A photo message shows that "liberated" Pokrovsk now looks like this.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has reportedly been captured by Russian forces. Fighting continues near the settlement, with 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendering.
  • Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, specifically south of Petropavlivka. They are advancing and capturing new positions, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank of Kurakhovo.
  • Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
• Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are storming Velyka Novosilka from multiple directions and are reportedly close to encircling it. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent the encirclement by focusing on positions north and south of Novy Komar.
  • A message reports that Russian forces are continuing their offensive to liberate Velyka Novosilka, having established positions on the northeastern and southeastern parts of the city.
  • Russian forces report advances in Dmytriv, Urozhaine, Novosergiyivka, Slovyanka, and Yasenove.
  • Video evidence purports to show the 40th Separate Brigade of the Ukrainian Coastal Defense Forces effectively engaging Russian targets with drones.
  • The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have made significant advances, capturing about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces continuing to advance in Chasiv Yar, dislodging the enemy from their positions. Tactical successes are reported, with the 200th Brigade pushing the enemy out of the "Десятый" microdistrict and currently liberating the "Новосеверный" microdistrict. Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
  • Video shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. They are also making progress in a nearby forest.
• Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in Kramatorsk's industrial zone. The number of casualties has risen to eight, including two children.
  • Reports of the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk being partially without power due to an emergency shutdown, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city.
• Other Areas:
  • Video evidence shows a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne with a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction with a "KUB" guided munition.
  • A TASS report states that a Russian strike on the "Luch" design bureau in Kyiv may have eliminated foreign specialists servicing HIMARS MLRS.
  • Photos show the detention of a lawyer accused of recruiting agents for Russian intelligence.
  • A video shows the daily lives of Ukrainian soldiers, including food preparation and drone operations.
  • Video evidence shows soldiers of the 77th Airmobile Brigade using drones to dismantle enemy shelters and infantry.
  • The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully. Ukrainian defenses are built around mine waste heaps. Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs against these positions and drone control points. Fighting is ongoing in the landings near the city dump to the northwest.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two.
  • An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting and destroying a Russian "TOR-M2" air defense system in the Zaporizhzhia region.
  • A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses for Ukrainian forces.
  • Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment.
  • A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
  • Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces have regained territory and made a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements, including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. They are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa, and have cleared the area south of Zelenyi Shlyakh. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka.
  • A report details the situation in the Kursk region as of the morning of 2025-01-19. Key points include: Russian forces are continuing offensive operations in the direction of Nikolaevka - Viktorivka and have made tactical advances. Russian forces are regrouping in the direction of Staraya and Novaya Sorochina. Ukrainian forces have reinforced their positions near Makhnovka/Kolmakov with new infantry groups. The situation near Agronom/Makhnovka remains unchanged.
  • Video evidence shows electronic warfare specialists of a separate motorized infantry brigade of the "Sever" group detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs in the Kursk region border area.
  • Video evidence shows a special report on a Russian armored group called "Pressa" operating in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
  • Video evidence of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region. The soldiers are from the 36th Marine Brigade, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, and other units. They report being sent to the Kursk region with minimal training and equipment, and describe being quickly overwhelmed by Russian forces. They also express dissatisfaction with their commanders and the Ukrainian military leadership.
  • According to the commander of one of the battalions of the 352nd motorized rifle regiment with the call sign "Wanderer", Russian forces destroyed 50 Ukrainian soldiers in a small arms battle in Russkoye Porechnoye.
• Intense Fighting: Reports indicate an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area.
  • Video details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
  • Video shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
  • The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
  • From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
• Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have reportedly suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties.
• Drone Warfare: Drone warfare is prevalent in the region, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance and attacks.
  • A new video shows a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region.
  • New video evidence shows Ussuri paratroopers displaying captured trophies, including a US-made 7.62mm M240 machine gun, and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region.
  • Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
  • Video shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Movement of Enemy Equipment in Kursk Oblast: From 6 AM until the time of this report, there has been a significant movement of various enemy equipment in Kursk Oblast. Some of this equipment has been destroyed.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian tank being destroyed by a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
  • Video shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
  • Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
  • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • Video evidence of a captured US M-577 command and staff vehicle (based on the M113) in the Kursk region. The video claims that the vehicle was captured by Russian forces, repaired, and put into service. The vehicle reportedly belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment of the US Army.
  • Video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
  • Video evidence shows fighting near Glubokoye in the Kursk region.
  • "Mediazona" confirmed the deaths of at least three lieutenant colonels in a missile strike on Lgov, Kursk region, on December 30th. The strike targeted the location of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division.
  • Specialists of the search and rescue team accompany the crews of helicopters operating in the border areas of the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the UA REG TEAM targeting Russian forces, their equipment, and weapons in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows a 152-mm shell from a Giatsint-B howitzer of the Crimean paratroopers completing a counter-battery duel, destroying a camouflaged AFU gun in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • "Sever" fighters are destroying NATO equipment in the border area using artillery and an Orlan-30 drone with a high-precision munition.
• North Korean Involvement:
  • South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded.
  • A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled.
  • An image from "STERNENKO" shows a wanted poster for three North Korean soldiers accused of killing five Russian marines in the Kursk region on January 13, 2025.

Kharkiv Region

• Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne, Hlushkivka, Shyykivka, and Borivsk Andriyivka.
• Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in the western and central parts of Kharkiv region, heading west. Drones are also reported north of Kharkiv, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Poltava regions, heading west.
• Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
  • Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
  • Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk, according to the head of the Kupyansk Regional State Administration.
  • Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
  • A message from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that the Russian army is developing success near Kupyansk, threatening to collapse the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The situation near Ivanovka is reportedly deteriorating, with Russian forces continuing to advance and consolidate their positions.
  • A video from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" shows Russian forces conducting reconnaissance near Ivanovka using a drone with thermal imaging.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
  • A message reports that Russian forces have expanded their control zone to Belohorivka on the Krasnolimanske direction. Fighting is ongoing on its outskirts. They are also advancing northwest of Ivanivka towards Kolodyazne.
  • Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
  • Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka.
  • Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
  • Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.
  • Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.
• Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions.
  • Drones are reported north of Kamyanske in Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west, and on the border of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading west.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
  • A map of air raid alerts shows that air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Video evidence shows the moment of today's drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya-2" drones equipped with TM-62M anti-tank mines for targeted strikes.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
  • The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses."
  • Only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue, stated the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko.
  • A TASS report states that an agreement between Russia and Iran includes aspects of defense and security.
  • A TASS report states that Orban believes that once the conflict in Ukraine is over, sanctions against Russia will be "thrown out the window" and the West will establish normal relations with Russia.
  • Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
  • Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support and that its accession to the EU would
  • President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, states that the Panama Canal belongs to Panama and will remain under Panamanian control.
  • Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament to discuss continued support for Ukraine, the preparation of a new EU sanctions package, the strengthening of military-technical cooperation, and joint projects in the defense industry. Zelensky also noted Lithuania's leadership in advocating for Ukraine on its path to the European Union and NATO.
• Ukrainian forces report a successful strike on a Russian TOR-M2 air defense system using an FPV drone. Video evidence shows the drone targeting the TOR-M2 on the territory of the "Belgorod People's Republic" (BNR), specifically hitting the radar module. The video also shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian logistics.

Changes compared to the previous 6 hours:

• Donetsk Region: Continued fighting in Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. New reports of fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka. Continued fighting in Zverevo.
• Kursk Region: Continued Russian advances and new video evidence of fighting. Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes and casualties.
• Luhansk Region: Further Russian advances reported.
• Drone Warfare: Continued widespread drone activity, with new reports of drones in various regions. New reports on the movement of "Shahed" drones.

Updated Situation

Russian forces continue to make significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stalled, and Russian forces continue to advance. Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with ongoing attacks across multiple regions. The new reports of drone movements, especially in the Kharkiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, indicate a continued threat to these areas. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts highlight the ongoing danger posed by these drones. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, as reported by South Korean intelligence and Ukrainian sources, adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of foreign involvement on the Russian side. The geopolitical developments, particularly the comments from the Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker, highlight the complex international landscape surrounding the conflict. The meeting between Zelensky and the Lithuanian parliament speaker underscores the ongoing diplomatic efforts to support Ukraine and strengthen its position in the international arena.