Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 20, 2025, 07:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have captured several key locations, severely hampering Ukrainian logistics and defenses. The capture of Vremivka is a significant development, effectively cutting off Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka and creating a cauldron. A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses, while Russian forces have regained territory and are advancing in the Sudzha area. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Ivanovka and advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory, including Kazan and Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 93 out of 141 drones overnight.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 189 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with 89 of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk Strategic Threat: Russian forces are intensifying efforts to encircle Pokrovsk, a strategically vital city. The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of the highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka, alongside the cutting of the railway line between Dnipropetrovsk and Pokrovsk, significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement. The advance towards Udachne and assault operations towards Zverevo from Peschanoye further compound the threat. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. From the Pokrovsk direction there are reports of success of Russian troops in Kotlyno and Udachny, which indicates the implementation of the plan to cover the city from the southwest. Enemy resources recognize the loss of control over mine No. 2 of the Pokrovskoe ShU.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city and within 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Northwest of the liberated Kurakhovo, Russian forces are leveling the front line on the Petropavlovka-Shevchenko section. To the southwest, Russian units are fighting for Dachnoye. There are battles along the forest belts north and northeast of Sukhoi Yaly.
Velyka Novosilka Encirclement: Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle Velyka Novosilka, establishing positions in the city's northeast and southeast. The last road supplying the city is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka, forming a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka. The new messages detail a double strike on Ukrainian vehicles near Velyka Novosilka. Two Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered near Velyka Novosilka. To the north of the liberated Vremivka, Russian troops are storming Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novoselka from the north, east and southeast. The fall of the enemy garrison, deprived of logistics and supplies, has become a matter of time. On the Zaporozhye front, the Ukrainian forces continue to strengthen their positions through foreign mercenaries and the transfer of equipment, which becomes a priority target for Russian artillery, drones and aircraft. Russian pilots struck at enemy positions in the area of Temirovka. The enemy at the same time hit the court building in Vasilyevka with artillery. The only remaining key outpost of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction is doomed - fighting is already underway on the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, according to military correspondent Oleksandr Kots.
Other Advances: Russian forces report significant advances in Kotlyne, Udachne, and near Novoandriivka, Sukhyi Yar, Vremivka, and Velyka Novosilka. The advance in Velyka Novosilka is particularly significant, with reports of a breakthrough from the east and north, advancing towards the center.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have made significant advances in the urban area, capturing about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. Clashes continue near Chasiv Yar with no significant changes. In Chasov Yar, after the liberation of the Refractory Plant, the fighting shifted to the "Novoseverny" microdistrict. To the south, heavy fighting continues for residential areas.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
Consolidation and Expansion of Russian Control: Battles are ongoing for Kotlyne and Udachne. Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack near Shevchenko. Fighting is ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar. Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad). Russian forces are expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka. Russian forces are attacking Andriivka from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka. Russian forces have made significant advances towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and have entered Dachne, further tightening the "Kurakhovsky pocket." Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank. 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. Retreating Ukrainian forces blew up the Belitskaya mine in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. North of Ivanivka, the situation is deteriorating.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberating several settlements.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka. Russian forces report that they have captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
Intense Fighting: There are reports of an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. In the Kursk region, Russian forces maintain the initiative, the past day was characterized by attacking actions of Russian troops. The “North” troop group reports reaching the approaches to the Nikolsky farm and the village of Kurilovka. At the same time, the Ukrainian forces concentrated manpower and equipment in Sudzha and Martynovka. It is also reported about strikes by "Lancers" and missile weapons on concentrations of Ukrainian forces in the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, on units of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, 41st Mechanized Brigade, and the Center for Special Operations Forces "South". Noteworthy is the information about the strike on the accumulation of Spanish-speaking foreign mercenaries.
Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have reportedly suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region.
New Russian Airstrikes: A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region. A medic from the "Chestnut" unit saved 300 soldiers during the fighting in the Kursk region.
Significant Casualties: The Russian MoD claims Ukrainian losses in January have exceeded 5,600 troops and 570 units of military equipment. A new video has emerged showing Ukrainian soldiers interrogating a captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region using Google Translate. The Russian MoD reports that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar. Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources. Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk. Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
Disrupting Evacuation: Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region.
New Report: In Russkoe Porechnoe, Russian soldiers found the mutilated bodies of elderly people with their hands tied, bruises and gunshot wounds in the basement.

Kharkiv Region

Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne. On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. The new report details that in Sumy, Russian troops struck a Ukrainian deployment site, killing 18 and wounding 30.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near several settlements.
Borova Direction (New): Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
Heavy Losses: Russian military expert Andrey Marochko claims that Russian forces have eliminated 7,100 Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries in the Luhansk People's Republic over the past week.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, and Odesa.
New Technology: Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
Attacks Inside Russia: Drone attacks inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure, including Almetyevsk and Tatarstan. New explosions have been reported in Kazan, Russia, affecting several districts. Temporary restrictions were introduced at the airports of Nizhnekamsk, Kazan, and now also Izhevsk in Tatarstan and Udmurtia. A drone fragment was reportedly found near a residential building on Mozhaysky Street in Kazan, and residents are being evacuated. Overnight in Kazan, a drone flew in the Aircraft Building area of the city at about 04:30 in the morning, after which an explosion was heard in the sky. According to eyewitnesses, the UAV tried to attack local enterprises. In the morning, new explosions sounded, fires visible on the ground. Presumably, according to the media, the target could be the aviation and helicopter plants in Kazan. In addition, air defense systems shot down UAVs over Ryazan. The Kazan Gorbunov Aviation Plant was attacked by drones. The plant is a branch of Tupolev, one of the largest enterprises of the Russian aviation industry. An attempt to attack industrial enterprises in Kazan was undertaken, all drones were neutralized, according to authorities. Overnight, the Russian air defense system shot down 31 enemy UAVs. Almost half of the drones - 14 - were destroyed over the Bryansk region. Six more UAVs were intercepted over the Kaluga region, three over the Belgorod and Kursk regions, two over the Ryazan and Orel regions, and one over the Tatarstan region.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 22 "Shahed" drones over the Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 2 "Shahed" drones over the Mykolaiv Oblast.
New Drone Activity:
- Drones on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest.
- Drones in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk.
- Drones in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south.
- Drone threat for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts.
- A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr.
- A drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv.
- A drone is reported in the north of Poltava heading west.
- A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv heading west.
- A drone is reported in the south of Poltava heading south.
- A drone is reported in central Kharkiv heading south.
- A drone is reported in Dnipropetrovsk heading south.
- A drone is reported in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.
- A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.
New Report: The new report details that in Kaluga, high-precision debris from drones again set fire to some enterprise.

Missile Attacks

Ballistic and X-22 Missiles: The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region, with missiles continuing their movement south in the Kharkiv region. X-22 missiles are reported flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region.
HIMARS Interception: Four HIMARS missiles were reportedly shot down over the Bryansk region.

Geopolitical Developments

Potential Trump-Xi Meeting: US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a visit to China within the first 100 days of his presidency and has discussed a potential meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: US President-elect Donald Trump has reportedly instructed to organize a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin after the inauguration. Trump has reportedly instructed his aides to arrange a phone call with Putin within a few days after taking office as US President, according to CNN. The purpose of the call is reportedly to discuss a personal meeting in the coming months to try to stop the war in Ukraine. The report notes that during his election campaign, Trump promised to end the conflict within one day after taking office. However, on the eve of his inauguration, with no clear signs of an early end to the almost three-year war, he is likely to break that promise. Once Trump takes office, American and Russian officials will be able to begin serious work on organizing such a meeting. The new president said that negotiations are already underway. Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
Shifting European Approach to Ukraine: Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gaspar stated that Europe's approach to the Ukrainian issue is changing and that the coming weeks will be decisive.
Slovak Veto Threat: Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gaspar suggested that Slovakia might veto aid to Ukraine, emphasizing the need for Ukraine to act as a "trustworthy partner."
US National Security Advisor: Urges for an end to the war in Ukraine. He highlights three main issues to be resolved for a peaceful settlement: who to invite to the negotiating table, how to get them there, and the framework of a possible deal.

Other Developments

Casualties: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 176 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with the largest number of battles occurring in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces conducted four missile strikes, 22 airstrikes (including six missiles and 30 guided aerial bombs), and used 817 kamikaze drones. They also carried out over 4,300 attacks on Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
Alleged Capture of North Korean Soldiers: The new video allegedly showing captured North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating a possible expansion of the conflict and direct involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side.
Art Exhibition in Moscow: An art exhibition titled "It's not like that at all, as in your rose-colored glasses" opened in Moscow. The exhibition, curated by SVO volunteer Anton Belikov, focuses on the "culture of war" and features digital art related to the conflict.
Children Playing "Mobilization" Game: Children in a Kyiv school were reportedly playing a "mobilization" game, mimicking the actions of the Ukrainian Territorial Center of Recruitment and Social Support (TCK). This incident raises concerns about the psychological impact of the conflict on children.
ENOT Trial Suspension: A Russian court has suspended the trial of four members of the ENOT organization due to their participation in the special operation.
Pantsir-S Air Defense System: A video from Colonelcassad showcases the combat operation of a Pantsir-S air defense system, reportedly supporting the "Sever" group.
Destruction of Enemy Dungeons: A video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of enemy dugouts by a UAV crew of the 68th Army Corps near Sukhyi Yaly.
"Two Majors" Video Analysis: The video emphasizes the difficult operating conditions, presenting a scenario where both combat and logistical challenges are abundant. The repeated crossing of rivers and navigation through rough terrain highlight a persistent need for troops to secure and maintain access to key areas.
"Diary of a Paratrooper" Morning Report: The report details combat operations of Russian paratroopers, including the use of BM-21 "Grad" MLRS and FPV drones. It also mentions the delivery of a mobile baptismal font to Russian troops near Kherson.
"Rybar" Support and Services: The message highlights "Rybar's" need for support and offers various ways to contribute, including financial donations, information orders, and subscriptions to their services.
"Rybar" Crisis Morning Summary: The summary covers events in the special military operation zone, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region. In Kursk region, Russian forces maintain the initiative, the past day was characterized by attacking actions of Russian troops. The “North” troop group reports reaching the approaches to the Nikolsky farm and the village of Kurilovka. At the same time, the Ukrainian forces concentrated manpower and equipment in Sudzha and Martynovka. It is also reported about strikes by "Lancers" and missile weapons on concentrations of Ukrainian forces in the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, on units of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, 41st Mechanized Brigade, and the Center for Special Operations Forces "South". Noteworthy is the information about the strike on the accumulation of Spanish-speaking foreign mercenaries. In Chasov Yar, after the liberation of the Refractory Plant, the fighting shifted to the "Novoseverny" microdistrict. To the south, heavy fighting continues for residential areas. From the Pokrovsk direction there are reports of success of Russian troops in Kotlyno and Udachny, which indicates the implementation of the plan to cover the city from the southwest. Enemy resources recognize the loss of control over mine No. 2 of the Pokrovskoe ShU. Northwest of the liberated Kurakhovo, Russian forces are leveling the front line on the Petropavlovka-Shevchenko section. To the southwest, Russian units are fighting for Dachnoye. There are battles along the forest belts north and northeast of Sukhoi Yaly. To the north of the liberated Vremivka, Russian troops are storming Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novoselka from the north, east and southeast. The fall of the enemy garrison, deprived of logistics and supplies, has become a matter of time. On the Zaporozhye front, the Ukrainian forces continue to strengthen their positions through foreign mercenaries and the transfer of equipment, which becomes a priority target for Russian artillery, drones and aircraft. Russian pilots struck at enemy positions in the area of Temirovka. The enemy at the same time hit the court building in Vasilyevka with artillery. In the Belgorod region, Shebekino was hit. The village of Murom was attacked by an FPV drone. In the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, the village of Grafovka was attacked by two kamikaze UAVs. In the village of Cheremoshnoye, Belgorod region, a drone hit a car. The village of Tishanka, Volokonovsky district, was subjected to enemy shelling.
"Colonelcassad" Photo Analysis: The image depicts a makeshift "Christmas tree" constructed from various firearms and military gear. This image, while seemingly whimsical, carries significant weight in the context of ongoing military operations. The creation of a "Christmas tree" from weapons can be interpreted as both a display of defiance and morale boosting activity amongst soldiers.
Report on Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
New Report: The new report details that in Kazan, a drone flew in the Aircraft Building area of the city at about 04:30 in the morning, after which an explosion was heard in the sky. According to eyewitnesses, the UAV tried to attack local enterprises. In the morning, new explosions sounded, fires visible on the ground. Presumably, according to the media, the target could be the aviation and helicopter plants in Kazan. In addition, air defense systems shot down UAVs over Ryazan.
New Report: The new report details that the Kazan Gorbunov Aviation Plant was attacked by drones. The plant is a branch of Tupolev, one of the largest enterprises of the Russian aviation industry. An attempt to attack industrial enterprises in Kazan was undertaken, all drones were neutralized, according to authorities.
New Report: The new report details that in the Kursk region, Russian forces maintain the initiative, the past day was characterized by attacking actions of Russian troops. The “North” troop group reports reaching the approaches to the Nikolsky farm and the village of Kurilovka. At the same time, the Ukrainian forces concentrated manpower and equipment in Sudzha and Martynovka. It is also reported about strikes by "Lancers" and missile weapons on concentrations of Ukrainian forces in the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, on units of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, 41st Mechanized Brigade, and the Center for Special Operations Forces "South". Noteworthy is the information about the strike on the accumulation of Spanish-speaking foreign mercenaries.
New Report: The new report details that in Chasov Yar, after the liberation of the Refractory Plant, the fighting shifted to the "Novoseverny" microdistrict. To the south, heavy fighting continues for residential areas.
New Report: The new report details that from the Pokrovsk direction there are reports of success of Russian troops in Kotlyno and Udachny, which indicates the implementation of the plan to cover the city from the southwest. Enemy resources recognize the loss of control over mine No. 2 of the Pokrovskoe ShU.
New Report: The new report details that northwest of the liberated Kurakhovo, Russian forces are leveling the front line on the Petropavlovka-Shevchenko section. To the southwest, Russian units are fighting for Dachnoye. There are battles along the forest belts north and northeast of Sukhoi Yaly.
New Report: The new report details that to the north of the liberated Vremivka, Russian troops are storming Velikaya (Bolshaya) Novoselka from the north, east and southeast. The fall of the enemy garrison, deprived of logistics and supplies, has become a matter of time.
New Report: The new report details that on the Zaporozhye front, the Ukrainian forces continue to strengthen their positions through foreign mercenaries and the transfer of equipment, which becomes a priority target for Russian artillery, drones and aircraft. Russian pilots struck at enemy positions in the area of Temirovka. The enemy at the same time hit the court building in Vasilyevka with artillery.
New Report: The new report details that in the Belgorod region, Shebekino was hit. The village of Murom was attacked by an FPV drone. In the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, the village of Grafovka was attacked by two kamikaze UAVs. In the village of Cheremoshnoye, Belgorod region, a drone hit a car. The village of Tishanka, Volokonovsky district, was subjected to enemy shelling.
New Report: The new report details that the new report details that in Tula Oblast, the Russian army repelled an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.
New Report: The new report details that in Sumy, Russian troops struck a Ukrainian deployment site, killing 18 and wounding 30.
New Report: In Horlivka, nine civilians were injured due to shelling by Ukrainian forces.

Changes compared to the previous 6 hours:

Donetsk Region: Increased fighting in the Pokrovsk direction, with Russian forces making advances in Kotlyno and Udachny. Fighting continues in Velyka Novosilka and Chasiv Yar.
Kursk Region: Russian forces maintain the initiative and continue their advance. Reports of strikes on Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries.
Drone Warfare: Continued drone attacks inside Russia, with new reports of explosions in Kazan and an attack on the Kazan Gorbunov Aviation Plant. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 22 "Shahed" drones over the Sumy Oblast and 2 over Mykolaiv Oblast. Russian air defense shot down 31 enemy UAVs overnight.
Geopolitical: US President-elect Donald Trump has reportedly instructed his aides to organize a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin after his inauguration. Reports of a potential meeting between Putin and Trump in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
Other: Reports of Russian forces striking a Ukrainian deployment site in Sumy, killing 18 and wounding 30. Reports of an enemy attack in Aleksin, Tula Oblast, with 17 drones shot down. Reports of nine civilians injured in Horlivka due to shelling.

Updated Situation:

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region remains the focal point of intense fighting, with Russian forces making incremental gains around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the ongoing drone warfare, including attacks deep inside Russia, further complicate the situation. The potential meeting between Trump and Putin adds another layer of uncertainty to the conflict's future. Ukrainian forces continue to resist, inflicting significant losses on Russian troops and equipment, but the overall situation remains challenging. The reported Ukrainian losses of 1690 personnel, 10 tanks, 42 armored vehicles, 19 artillery systems, 3 air defense systems, 153 UAVs, 87 vehicles, and 6 units of special equipment highlight the intensity of the fighting. The reported destruction of Ukrainian air defense systems (two Buk-M3 and two Tor-M2) in the south is also a significant development.

Situation Report