Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 20, 2025, 04:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have captured several key locations, severely hampering Ukrainian logistics and defenses. The capture of Vremivka is a significant development, effectively cutting off Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka and creating a cauldron. Ukrainian forces have reportedly relocated residents from nearby settlements to Velyka Novosilka to create a "human shield." A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses, while Russian forces have regained territory and are advancing in the Sudzha area. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Ivanovka and advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory, including Kazan and Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan. Temporary restrictions were introduced at the airports of Nizhnekamsk and Kazan in Tatarstan due to drone attacks. US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly planning to sign nearly 100 executive orders immediately after his inauguration. Overnight, Russian forces launched drone attacks, with explosions reported in Kazan and the Kursk region. Russian air defense systems were active, reportedly engaging drones.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 176 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with almost half of them in the Pokrovsk direction. The intensity of combat remains high, with 180 clashes reported in the latest update, including 88 in the Pokrovsk direction alone. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that the Ukrainian forces have had success near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.
• Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian forces have reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out of the settlement. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka. Three combat clashes are still ongoing.
• Pokrovsk Strategic Threat: Russian forces are intensifying efforts to encircle Pokrovsk, a strategically vital city. The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of the highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka, alongside the cutting of the railway line between Dnipropetrovsk and Pokrovsk, significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement. The advance towards Udachne and assault operations towards Zverevo from Peschanoye further compound the threat. Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka, near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Russian forces have cut the penultimate railway line to Pokrovsk and the exit to the remaining "gut" Pokrovsk - Belozerskoye - Dubovo, after taking control of two stations west of Pokrovsk. The main line Donetsk - Pokrovsk - Chaplino - Sinelnikovo - Dnipropetrovsk has been cut off. Ukrainian forces are making efforts to prevent the loss of Pokrovsk. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city and within 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank. On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near several settlements. Five clashes are ongoing. Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded, three vehicles destroyed, and one antenna of a UAV, with two additional vehicles significantly damaged. The city hospital of Pokrovsk is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno, a mine, and a mine control center. Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, specifically south of Petropavlivka, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank of Kurakhovo. Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne.
• Velyka Novosilka Encirclement: Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle Velyka Novosilka, establishing positions in the city's northeast and southeast. Ukrainian military sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka. The last road supplying the city is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka, forming a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces are attacking in the area of the milk factory, gas station, dormitory and airfield. On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attacked 19 times near Velyka Novosilka. The situation for the Ukrainian forces is described as extremely difficult, with Russian forces closing in from three directions. Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The new messages detail a double strike on Ukrainian vehicles near Velyka Novosilka. Two Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered near Velyka Novosilka.
• Other Advances: Russian forces report that they have entered Dmytriv and are advancing to the west and north of the settlement, as well as having severed the railway line and highway that Ukrainian forces used to supply their troops in Krasnoarmiisk. They also claim to have entered Urozhaine and Novosergiyivka and to have liberated Slovyanka and Yasenove. Significant advances are reported in Kotlyne, Udachne, and near Novoandriivka, Sukhyi Yar, Vremivka, and Velyka Novosilka. The advance in Velyka Novosilka is particularly significant, with reports of a breakthrough from the east and north, advancing towards the center. Russian forces have broken through the defense and entered the first streets of Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces are attacking in the area of the Velyka Novosilka milk factory, gas station, dormitory and airfield. On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attacked 17 times near Velyka Novosilka. Battles are ongoing. Russian forces conducted airstrikes with guided bombs near several settlements.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have made significant advances in the urban area, capturing about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant. Clashes continue near Chasiv Yar with no significant changes. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex.
• Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions. Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
• Consolidation and Expansion of Russian Control:
  • Battles are ongoing for Kotlyne and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east.
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack near Shevchenko.
  • Fighting is ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported.
  • Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad).
  • Russian forces are expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka.
  • Russian forces are attacking Andriivka from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka, and have occupied the banks north of the Volchya and Orlova rivers.
  • Russian forces are fighting on the southeastern outskirts of Dachne and advancing north of Yantarnoye and near Zelenovka.
  • Russian forces have made significant advances towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and have entered Dachne, further tightening the "Kurakhovsky pocket."
  • Russian forces have reportedly forded the right tributary of the Solena River in Zverevo and occupied new positions on the banks of the Utyatnyk pond.
  • DeepState reports that Russian forces have occupied Pishchane, Sloviyanka, and Yasenove, and have made advances near Novoandriivka, Dachne, Kotlyne, Zvirove, Vremivka, and Chasiv Yar.
  • Russian forces report that they have entered the settlements of Urozhaine and Novosergiyivka, and having liberated Slovyanka and Yasenove.
  • Video evidence shows that Russian forces targeted Ukrainian military equipment near Pokrovsk, including a German Leopard tank, an American M119 howitzer, and a mortar.
  • Russian forces advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne.
  • Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west.
  • Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank.
  • Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are reported as 340 military personnel killed and wounded, two tanks, 10 vehicles, one mortar, an electronic warfare system, two armored fighting vehicles, and one armored reconnaissance vehicle were also destroyed. In addition, two tanks, five vehicles, and three Russian guns were damaged.
  • The city hospital of Pokrovsk is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones.
  • Battles are ongoing. Russian forces conducted airstrikes with guided bombs near several settlements.
  • New reports indicate that 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Retreating Ukrainian forces blew up the Belitskaya mine in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
  • North of Ivanivka, the situation is deteriorating.
  • Russian forces conducted airstrikes with guided bombs near several settlements.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne with a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
  • Video evidence from the People's Militia of the DPR shows the liquidation of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction with a "KUB" guided munition.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian position in Engels.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian target in the Kherson direction.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian position.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian target in the Kherson direction.
  • Video from "Воин DV" shows a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian position.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone attack targeting a building in a rural area.
  • Video evidence from the "Воин DV" Telegram channel shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
  • Video evidence from the "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian forces using mortars, "Baba Yaga" drones, and tanks to destroy Russian forces and equipment.
  • Video evidence from Colonelcassad shows snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group conducting a night hunt for enemy personnel in one of the areas of the South Donetsk direction.
  • The new messages report that Russian forces are continuing their assault on Dachne and are preparing a strike force on Ulakly. Ukrainian forces are reportedly not withdrawing, despite their last normal road being under fire. "Azov" forces are reportedly conducting counterattacks in the Pokrovsk direction, described as more like raids before retreating without securing positions. Fighting continues near Uspenivka, Udachne, and Kotlyno, with some progress reported near Myrnohrad from Mykolaivka.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberating several settlements.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. They have also cleared the area south of Zelenyi Shlyakh. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka. Russian forces report that they have captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, the Armed Forces of Russia are approaching Malaya Loknya, and the enemy is counterattacking. Russian forces maintain the initiative in the Kursk region, with reports of attacking actions and advances towards Nikolsky and Kurilovka. A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region.
• Intense Fighting: There are reports of an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations. Active fighting is ongoing in the Sudzha area. Reports indicate a slow push by Russian forces near Kruglенькое, a lull in fighting in Staraya/Novaya Sorochina and Pogrebki, a massive repelled Russian assault near Viktorivka, and an impending decisive battle for the region. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment.
• Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have reportedly suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region. Video evidence of a captured US M-577 command and staff vehicle (based on the M113) in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
• New Russian Airstrikes: A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes. A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• New Video Evidence: New video evidence from Colonelcassad shows Ussuri paratroopers displaying captured trophies, including a US-made 7.62mm M240 machine gun, and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region. This highlights the ongoing conflict in the region and the capture of Western-supplied equipment.
• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive and Renewed Russian Advance: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been met with heavy losses and has stalled. Russian forces have regained territory, achieving a 10-kilometer breakthrough in the Sudzha area, liberating Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Ukrainian forces attempted a reconnaissance-in-force operation near Malaya Loknya and Viktorovka but were defeated.
• Sudzha Area Focus: Russian forces are advancing, reportedly attacking Russkoye Porechnoye with an infantry unit and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian forces report that they have captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, the Armed Forces of Russia are approaching Malaya Loknya, and the enemy is counterattacking.
• Significant Casualties: Significant Ukrainian losses are reported, with over 350 personnel lost during the day. Russian sources claim over 52,450 Ukrainian losses since hostilities began. Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade. The Russian MoD claims Ukrainian losses in January have exceeded 5,600 troops and 570 units of military equipment. A new video has emerged showing Ukrainian soldiers interrogating a captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region using Google Translate. The Russian MoD reports that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar. Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources. Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk. Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than

Kharkiv Region

• Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne. On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
• Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near several settlements. Two combat clashes are ongoing. Enemy aircraft struck with unguided rockets at Zelenyi Hai.
• Borova Direction (New): Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.
• Heavy Losses: Russian military expert Andrey Marochko claims that Russian forces have eliminated 7,100 Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries in the Luhansk People's Republic over the past week, with the "West" grouping inflicting the most damage.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, and Odesa. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions.
• New Technology: Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
• Attacks Inside Russia: Drone attacks inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure, including Almetyevsk and Tatarstan. Reports indicate that the drone threat has been lifted. New explosions have been reported in Kazan, Russia, affecting several districts. Temporary restrictions were introduced at the airports of Nizhnekamsk and Kazan in Tatarstan. The new image from "Два майора" shows an explosion in Kazan, with the caption indicating that a drone hit an empty barrel. This suggests that while the drone attack reached its target area, it may not have caused significant damage. The fact that it hit an empty barrel could indicate a targeting error, successful countermeasures, or simply luck.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
• New Drone Activity:
  • Drones on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest.
  • Drones in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk.
  • Drones in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south.
  • Drone threat for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts.
  • A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr.
  • A drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv.
  • A drone is reported in the north of Poltava heading west.
  • A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv heading west.
  • A drone is reported in the south of Poltava heading south.
  • A drone is reported in central Kharkiv heading south.
  • A drone is reported in Dnipropetrovsk heading south.
  • A drone is reported in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.
  • A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.
• New Video Evidence of Drone Strikes: A new video from Colonelcassad shows a Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) installation in an hangar in Olhivka, Kherson region.

Missile Attacks

• Ballistic and X-22 Missiles: The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region, with missiles continuing their movement south in the Kharkiv region. X-22 missiles are reported flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region. There is also a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions. A high-speed target is reported in the Kharkiv region in a southwesterly direction.

Geopolitical Developments

• Potential Trump-Xi Meeting: US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a visit to China within the first 100 days of his presidency and has discussed a potential meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump is reportedly planning to sign nearly 100 executive orders immediately after his inauguration.
• Shifting European Approach to Ukraine: Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gaspar stated that Europe's approach to the Ukrainian issue is changing and that the coming weeks will be decisive.

Other Developments

• Casualties: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 176 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with the largest number of battles occurring in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces conducted four missile strikes, 22 airstrikes (including six missiles and 30 guided aerial bombs), and used 817 kamikaze drones. They also carried out over 4,300 attacks on Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
• Alleged Capture of North Korean Soldiers: The new video allegedly showing captured North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating a possible expansion of the conflict and direct involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side.
• Art Exhibition in Moscow: An art exhibition titled "It's not like that at all, as in your rose-colored glasses" opened in Moscow. The exhibition, curated by SVO volunteer Anton Belikov, focuses on the "culture of war" and features digital art related to the conflict.
• Children Playing "Mobilization" Game: Children in a Kyiv school were reportedly playing a "mobilization" game, mimicking the actions of the Ukrainian Territorial Center of Recruitment and Social Support (TCK). This incident raises concerns about the psychological impact of the conflict on children.
• ENOT Trial Suspension: A Russian court has suspended the trial of four members of the ENOT organization due to their participation in the special operation.
• Pantsir-S Air Defense System: A video from Colonelcassad showcases the combat operation of a Pantsir-S air defense system, reportedly supporting the "Sever" group.
• Destruction of Enemy Dungeons: A video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of enemy dugouts by a UAV crew of the 68th Army Corps near Sukhyi Yaly.
• "Two Majors" Video Analysis: The video emphasizes the difficult operating conditions, presenting a scenario where both combat and logistical challenges are abundant. The repeated crossing of rivers and navigation through rough terrain highlight a persistent need for troops to secure and maintain access to key areas. The video conveys a high-risk operating environment where soldiers are facing significant challenges, and have a clear chance of being wounded or killed.
• "Diary of a Paratrooper" Morning Report: The report details combat operations of Russian paratroopers, including the use of BM-21 "Grad" MLRS and FPV drones. It also mentions the delivery of a mobile baptismal font to Russian troops near Kherson.
• "Rybar" Support and Services: The message highlights "Rybar's" need for support and offers various ways to contribute, including financial donations, information orders, and subscriptions to their services.
• "Rybar" Crisis Morning Summary: The summary covers events in the special military operation zone, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region.
• "Colonelcassad" Photo Analysis: The image depicts a makeshift "Christmas tree" constructed from various firearms and military gear. This image, while seemingly whimsical, carries significant weight in the context of ongoing military operations. The creation of a "Christmas tree" from weapons can be interpreted as both a display of defiance and morale boosting activity amongst soldiers. It could project an image of both readiness and also of normalcy in times of war. The juxtaposition of lethal weapons with holiday decor creates a jarring image, possibly meant to underscore the unusual circumstances of a conflict. It could also signify a sense of brotherhood, and the soldiers trying to continue a sense of normalacy while in a state of war. The image depicts a makeshift "Christmas tree" constructed from various firearms and military gear. This image, while seemingly whimsical, carries significant weight in the context of ongoing military operations. The creation of a "Christmas tree" from weapons can be interpreted as both a display of defiance and morale boosting activity amongst soldiers. It could project an image of both readiness and also of normalcy in times of war. The juxtaposition of lethal weapons with holiday decor creates a jarring image, possibly meant to underscore the unusual circumstances of a conflict. It could also signify a sense of brotherhood, and the soldiers trying to continue a sense of normalacy while in a state of war. The image shows a patch worn by what appears to be Russian or Russian-aligned airborne troops. The patch features a cartoon character with military connotations, a dark sense of humor, and a clear call to arms. This suggests a group with a strong group identity, potentially experienced in conflict, and willing to fight, a mix of aggression and a dark sense of humor in the face of conflict, as well as a clear call to fight. This provides an insight into the mindset and morale of this particular group. While not directly affecting strategic decisions, such imagery can impact the wider perception of the conflict by opponents and internally as propaganda and morale boosters. The image, likely taken in an active combat zone, displays a Russian affiliated combatant wearing tactical gear. The presence of a morale patch with a death-themed message and clear ties to a mercenary group like "Española" suggests a focus on psychological warfare and aggressive tactics. Strategically, this confirms the involvement of potentially unregulated forces and a conflict with heavy human cost on both sides. The image depicts an individual operating an improvised vehicle in a likely conflict zone. The vehicle is a representation of resourcefulness and adaptation to challenging circumstances. The setting, along with the presence of a firearm, suggests a situation where light mobility and rapid response are needed. This information is indicative of irregular warfare tactics where adaptation and asymmetric methods are deployed. The image emphasizes the potential for low-tech solutions to meet military needs in modern conflicts. The image depicts a military force handling a precision-guided missile, suggesting the force possesses advanced strike capabilities and is ready to use this weapon in a conflict. This information can inform decision-making regarding force deployments, countermeasure development, and overall strategic approach by both sides. Additionally, the optical sensor in the image could help analysts deduce what type of target these missiles could be aimed at. The image depicts a large, cylindrical object, likely an artillery munition, lying in a muddy road or field. This object appears to be unexploded, as there are no visible signs of detonation or damage beyond being impacted in the mud. The image portrays a civilian setting during the winter at night, but the content of the smartphone screen suggests it's connected to Russian military operations. The phrase "Diary of a Paratrooper," combined with a paratrooper emblem, indicates a possible pro-Russian military connection. The strategic implication is that such material might be related to information operations, morale building, or internal communication within the Russian military. The presence of civilians also suggests a potential area where military action would need to consider civilian activity. The image's content could be a snapshot of how social media and mobile devices are used in communication and potentially propaganda in the context of ongoing military actions.
• "Two Majors" Morning Summary: The summary reports on drone activity in Kazan, Russian advances in the Kursk region, fighting in Chasiv Yar and the Pokrovsk direction, and Ukrainian attacks in the Belgorod region.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha, capturing several settlements and advancing towards Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks, including deep inside Russian territory. The new reports of drone attacks in Tatarstan, specifically Kazan and Nizhnekamsk, represent a significant escalation, demonstrating the reach of Ukrainian drone capabilities. The temporary restrictions imposed at the airports in these cities highlight the seriousness of the threat. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, refineries, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. The potential involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side, if confirmed, would mark a significant escalation of the conflict. The continued use of ballistic missiles by Russian forces poses a significant threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The new reports of widespread drone activity across multiple regions of Ukraine indicate a significant escalation in aerial warfare. The potential meeting between US President-elect Donald Trump and