Archived operational intelligence briefing
Pokrovsk Encirclement Threat: Russian forces are intensifying their offensive to encircle Pokrovsk, a crucial city for Ukrainian logistics and defenses. They have captured Kotlyne and are engaged in heavy fighting in Udachne's eastern sector, nearing "Mine #1". The capture of Pokrovsk would severely compromise Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces are reportedly within 3 km of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's administrative border and have severed one of two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. They have reportedly liberated Vozdvyzhenka.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces report continued offensives to liberate Velyka Novosilka, establishing positions in the city's northeast and southeast. Ukrainian military sources indicate Russian forces are within 1.5 km of closing a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka. The last road supplying Velyka Novosilka is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka, forming a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.
Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is dire, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are reportedly fighting for the Toretska mine and have entered Petrivka from Shcherbynivka. Pro-Russian sources claim almost complete control of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
Chasiv Yar: Clashes continue near Chasiv Yar with no significant changes.
Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendering. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove.
Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been met with heavy losses and has stalled.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have regained territory, achieving a 10-kilometer breakthrough in the Sudzha area and reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Ukrainian forces attempted a reconnaissance-in-force operation near Malaya Loknya and Viktorovka but were defeated.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting persists in various locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is ongoing in the Sudzha area.
Sudzha Area: Russian forces are advancing, reportedly attacking Russkoye Porechnoye with an infantry unit and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
Casualties: Significant Ukrainian losses are reported, with over 350 personnel lost during the day. Russian sources claim over 52,450 Ukrainian losses since hostilities began. Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade. The Russian MoD claims Ukrainian losses in January have exceeded 5,600 troops and 570 units of military equipment. A new video has emerged showing Ukrainian soldiers interrogating a captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region using Google Translate. The Russian MoD reports that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar. Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
Drone Warfare: Drone warfare is prominent, with video evidence of Ukrainian forces using a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles and a German Leopard 2A6 tank being destroyed. Russian forces are using FPV drones to destroy US-made Bradley BMPs, Ukrainian BMPs, and D-30 howitzers in the border area. Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using drones to drop munitions on Russian positions in forests.
Confirmed Russian Airstrikes: Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes.
Reports from Various Sources: Indicate a slow push by Russian forces near Kruglенькое, a lull in fighting in Staraya/Novaya Sorochina and Pogrebki, a massive repelled Russian assault near Viktorivka, and an impending decisive battle for the region.
Russian Advances: Russian forces report expanding their control zone on the right bank of the Zherebets River and advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They report advances beyond Nadiya towards the border with the Kharkiv region and northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area and moving towards Hrekivka.
Lyman Direction: Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions 16 times near various settlements, with two clashes ongoing. A Ukrainian unit attempted to retake lost positions near Kolodezi but was defeated. Active hostilities are ongoing near Kolodezi. Positional fighting is reported in the Krasnyi Lyman - Ivanivka area. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their control zone on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanivka by up to 2 km.
Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the capture of Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Ukrainian Counterattack: An attempted Ukrainian counterattack in the Staritsa area was unsuccessful.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian use of guided aerial bombs (KAB) in the region.
Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian airstrikes at Veterynarne.
Drone Warfare: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region. One drone is approaching Balakliia. One drone is reported in the central part of the Kharkiv region, with a westerly course.
Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains prominent across multiple regions.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, is confirmed, with the oil depot burning for 5 days.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. ZALA has introduced a new compact launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for "Product 51".
Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Explosions in Kyiv: Missile strikes have caused fires and damage in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi and Desnianskyi districts, resulting in at least four deaths and several injuries. The Lukianivska metro station has been closed due to damage.
Explosions in Kryvyi Rih: Reports indicate a series of missile strikes targeting Kryvyi Rih, with the number of wounded rising to 5.
Explosions in Zaporizhzhia: Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia, with an infrastructure object reportedly hit. The number of wounded has risen to 10. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region, with reports of a high-speed target in the area.
Nationwide Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a nationwide ballistic missile threat, with X-22 missiles flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions. Kalibr missiles have been launched from the Anapa area.
New Missile Threat: Reports of a new guided aviation missile heading towards Lebedyn and Poltava.
Power outages are likely to occur.
Air raid alert is active across all of Ukraine.
7 TU-22M3 and 6 TU-95ms bombers are in the air. X-22 missiles are flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region. There is also a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions.
Some TU-22M3 bombers have begun landing at the Dyagilevo airbase.
There is an increased threat to Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, and Cherkasy oblasts.
Kalibr missiles have been launched from the Anapa area, expected to reach Ukrainian territory around 06:50 UTC.
EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
NATO Exercises: NATO is planning large-scale exercises on its eastern flank, "Steadfast Dart," from January 13th to February 26th, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries.
US-China Tensions: The US has threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia.
NATO Drone Deployment: NATO plans to deploy a fleet of drones in the Baltic Sea and reinforce its military presence in the region.
Zelenskyy's Statement on Troop Numbers: President Zelenskyy provided updated figures on Ukrainian and Russian troop numbers, highlighting the numerical advantage of Russian forces in concentrated areas.
Report on Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
Croatian Presidential Election: Pro-Russian incumbent Zoran Milanović reportedly won the Croatian presidential election.
German Party's Stance: The German party "Union of Sarah Wagenknecht - For Reason and Justice" adopted an election program calling for the resumption of supplies of Russian gas and a truce in Ukraine.
Poland-Slovakia Relations: The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained that the refusal to allow a special Slovak aircraft to enter Russian airspace was due to incomplete documentation.
Slovak opposition plans no-confidence vote in Fico's government.
Iranian President's Visit to Moscow: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has arrived in Moscow for an official visit, with a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement expected to be signed.
EU Purchases of Russian Gas: Despite the suspension of pipeline supplies, Europe is reportedly purchasing record volumes of Russian LNG, according to Politico.
US State Department: New sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament: Compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses."
Only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue, stated the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko.
German Foreign Minister: Criticized Scholz's government for blocking additional aid to Ukraine.
Israel-Hamas Agreement: Representatives of Israel, Hamas, the USA, and Qatar have officially signed an agreement on the exchange of hostages for prisoners and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
TikTok's Fate in the US: A TASS report states that Biden will not block TikTok in the US, and the fate of the video service will be decided by the Trump administration.
British and French Peacekeeping Forces: The Telegraph reported that Sir Kier Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are discussing sending British and French peacekeeping forces to Ukraine.
Russia-Iran Agreement: A TASS report states that an agreement between Russia and Iran includes aspects of defense and security.
Post-Conflict Sanctions: A TASS report states that Orban believes that once the conflict in Ukraine is over, sanctions against Russia will be "thrown out the window" and the West will establish normal relations with Russia.
Foreign Mercenaries: A TASS report states that over 580 foreign mercenaries fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been placed on the international wanted list.
Lomachenko's Business Ties: A report states that the boxer Lomachenko invested in the business of a person close to Putin.
Zelensky's Rhetoric: Le Monde reports that Zelensky has begun copying Trump.
Russian Diplomatic Infiltration: Russian diplomats reportedly infiltrated a closed area of the British Parliament.
Iran-EAEU Free Trade Agreement: Iran is reportedly close to approving a free trade agreement with the EAEU.
Peskov on Azov Sea Cooperation: Peskov stated that Moscow views negatively the statement by Kyiv and London about cooperation in the Azov Sea, as it is an internal sea of Russia.
Peskov on US Sanctions Policy: Peskov stated that there can be no fundamental changes in US sanctions policy towards Russia under Trump and that there is no need to indulge in excessive expectations.
Peskov on VTsIOM Poll: Peskov stated that the results of the VTsIOM poll confirm that Putin enjoys enormous support from the Russian population.
Peskov on Special Operation Zone Successes: Peskov stated that successes in the special operation zone are an important factor in the inspiration of Russians.
Hamas-Israel Ceasefire: Hamas has announced the resolution of all disagreements with Israel regarding the ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
Hungary's Stance on Ukraine's EU Accession: Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support and that its accession to the EU would pose a significant threat to the European economy and agriculture.
EU's Potential Use of Belgian Decree: The EU may use a Belgian decree from 1944 to circumvent a potential Hungarian veto on extending sanctions against Russia.
UK-Ukraine Agreement: The UK announced it will send Ukrainian cadets to the UK to learn from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This agreement, along with the previously signed 100-year partnership focusing on military cooperation, particularly in maritime security in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas, as well as scientific and technological partnerships, signifies a long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine.
South Korea's Offer on DPRK Soldiers: South Korea will offer Ukraine to take captured soldiers from the DPRK, if the DPRK citizens themselves express the corresponding desire.
US State Department on Sanctions: The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Slovak Prime Minister's Threat: Slovak Prime Minister Fico intends to veto further EU financial assistance to Ukraine.
Ceasefire in Gaza: A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has come into effect, with the first exchange of prisoners scheduled for today. The International Red Cross has confirmed that it has received three Israeli hostages from Hamas.
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: Reports indicate a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, with prisoner exchanges and humanitarian aid provisions.
Hamas Hostage Release: Hamas has reportedly handed over three hostages to the Red Cross in central Gaza.
Trump Advisor's Statement on Gaza: A senior Trump national security advisor, Mike Waltz, stated that Hamas would never govern Gaza and that the US would support Israel in whatever it needed to do if Hamas refused the deal.
Israeli Army Withdrawal from Rafah: The Israeli army has begun withdrawing equipment and troops from the city of Rafah in southern Gaza. An agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages has come into effect.
US President-elect Donald Trump's reported intention to visit China could have far-reaching implications for the conflict in Ukraine. Access to TikTok in the US has been blocked. There are reports that TikTok may be allowed to operate in Russia again. Trump has also stated that he will issue an order on January 20 to postpone the ban on TikTok in the US.
US President-elect Donald Trump has stated he will unblock TikTok on January 20th.
A senior Trump national security advisor, Mike Waltz, stated that Hamas will never govern Gaza and that the US would support Israel in whatever it needs to do if Hamas refuses the hostage deal.
Reports indicate that the Israeli army is withdrawing equipment and troops from Rafah in southern Gaza following a ceasefire agreement with Hamas.
Black Sea Naval Activity: There is one enemy ship in the Black Sea, a Kalibr cruise missile carrier with a total volley of up to 4 missiles. There are no enemy ships in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 7 enemy ships, 2 of which are Kalibr carriers with a total volley of up to 22 missiles.
100-Year Partnership Agreement: Ukraine and the UK signed an agreement for a 100-year partnership, focusing on military cooperation, particularly in maritime security in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas.
Donald Trump will reportedly unblock TikTok on January 20th.
The military situation remains highly dynamic, with Russian forces making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Velyka Novosilka, and Toretsk. In the Kursk region, a stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive has allowed Russian forces to regain territory and make a 10-kilometer breakthrough. Intense fighting continues in multiple locations, with both sides employing drones extensively. The emergence of a video showing the interrogation of a captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region raises questions about potential North Korean involvement.
Geopolitically, the situation is evolving. The impending inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump and his reported intention to unblock TikTok, along with statements from his national security advisor on the Israel-Hamas conflict, could signal shifts in US policy with potential ramifications for the conflict in Ukraine. The reported ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas adds another layer of complexity to the international landscape. The new messages confirm the ongoing intensity of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The reported capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region is a significant development, potentially indicating direct North Korean involvement in the conflict on the Russian side. This could have broader geopolitical implications, potentially drawing in other international actors. The continued heavy use of drones by both sides underscores the importance of technological warfare in this conflict. The advances by Russian forces in the Donetsk region, particularly the encirclement threat to Pokrovsk and the reported liberation of Vozdvyzhenka, highlight the ongoing Russian offensive and the pressure on Ukrainian defenses. The geopolitical developments, particularly the statements from the incoming Trump administration and the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, add further complexity to the situation. The new messages confirm the ongoing intensity of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The reported capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region is a significant development, potentially indicating direct North Korean involvement in the conflict on the Russian side. This could have broader geopolitical implications, potentially drawing in other international actors. The continued heavy use of drones by both sides underscores the importance of technological warfare in this conflict. The advances by Russian forces in the Donetsk region, particularly the encirclement threat to Pokrovsk and the reported liberation of Vozdvyzhenka, highlight the ongoing Russian offensive and the pressure on Ukrainian defenses. The geopolitical developments, particularly the statements from the incoming Trump administration and the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, add further complexity to the situation. The new messages do not significantly alter the overall strategic situation but provide further details on ongoing operations. In the Kursk region, the 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade is confirmed to be participating in hostilities, using drones to destroy Russian equipment. The Lyman direction sees continued fighting near Kolodezi, with a repelled Ukrainian counterattack. The use of drones to deliver leaflets calling for surrender is a notable psychological warfare tactic. The reported ceasefire in Gaza and the exchange of prisoners between Israel and Hamas, while not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, could have indirect implications on international attention and resource allocation. The confirmation of Trump's intention to unblock TikTok could signal a shift in US policy towards social media and potentially impact information warfare strategies.
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